List Mgmt. 2024 List Management thread - Trade Targets

[mayne iac]

Yes yes yes

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Hypothetically if Swans say #9 and #10 for Warner, is our future first and pick #15 enough for Bolton?

It what we have so yes

No, Richmond arent doing it out of spite if anything. You cant commit to their best player with a 4 year contract then trade away the two best picks. They arent taking it and are telling Shai too bad

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

You cant get two contracted guns in one off-season unless an unbelievable set of moons align. If one was uncontracted you could

 

[Superkoops]

Richmond will want 9 and 10.
We’ll offer 10 and 26.

93% of trade week will pass.

We’ll relent and offer 10 and 17.
Richmond will hold firm on 9 and 10 but offer pick 30 back.

98% of trade week will pass.

We’ll go to 9 and 17 with 21 coming back.

It will fall somewhere around here.

Unless Baker gets tied to the deal.

Then it’s 9,10 and 26 with something rubbish coming back.

Must keep a first to take to the draft in 2024.

Two deals separate.

We pay slight overs but get Baker on the cheap because he is out of contract. We should get away with an early and late first rounder. That alone is overs for Bolton. Refer to Neale (6,19 > Neale, 30). Bolton isn’t as highly rated as Neale.

I’m not going to keep posting trade ideas as the picks will change next week and then again in the trade week. Some free agency compo I’m interested to see where that falls.

 

[Cobbler]

The counter to this would be:
Multiple picks = multiple baskets
Freo strike rate on drafting 1st rounders with Walls is demonstrably better than your GWS and Gold Coast examples.

Stats101 don´t fail me now...
Recent top 10 picks, Hits: Serong, Young, Amiss. Bust: Erasmus ==> Likelihood of getting at least 1 Serong/Young/Amiss hit out of two top 10 picks is: 3/4*3/4+2*3/4*1/4= 94%.
Getting two Hits, 3/4*3/4 = 56%.


P.S. I actually DO want to trade two first rounders for Bolton as I still think we have too few in that 25-28 y.o. bracket, 9, 17 and steak knives. Just have no idea where the steak knives will land w.r.t. 2nd rounder going up/down and salary cap relief.

I don’t mind the maths. Albeit an incredibly small sample and also our picks will likely not be actual top 10 picks.

I’d prefer to zoom out. Sure Walls has been decent.

However let’s take a bracket of players, from say pick 10-15. Go back however long you want to. Is there any 2 player combos that you’d rather have over Bolton? I’m sure there will be, but out of all the options?

2023: Caddy, O’Sullivan, Gothard, Tholstrup, Rogers, Croft - Caddy looks special, but way too early to judge these guys. By large been non contributors. Theres 30 combos possible here. I’d be happy to accept Caddy and any other player would be equal to Bolton. So 5/30 = 16%

2022: Phillipou, Hollands, Fletcher, Busslinger, Hewitt, Jefferson - I personally wouldn’t take any 2 of these guys over Bolton for now. Again too early to judge. 0/30 = 0%

2021: Erasmus, Milera, Sinn, Hobbs, Chesser, Aleer - Wanganeen-Milera is great, but wouldn’t pair him up with any other player over Bolton. 0/30 = 0%

2020: Reid, Pedlar, Bruhn, Powell, Chapman, Stone - getting slightly better but I’d pass on any 2 player combo here for Bolton. 0/30 = 0%

2019: Green, Flanders, Pickett, Day, Berger, Weightman - I’m happy to concede every 2 player option here you’d take over Bolton. 30/30 = 100%

My point is, when a team has a couple of picks around 10 and give it up, they often cite who they could’ve had that fell around the mark and ignore the other guys who were clearly rated around the mark.

The above shows you that 2 picks around 10-15 still has hits and misses, more often than not misses.

 

[Taylor]

You cant get two contracted guns in one off-season unless an unbelievable set of moons align. If one was uncontracted you could

Then the moons will need to unbelievably align. Chad Warner's one year contracted is small time in the scheme of the players looking to shift around this off season.

 

[Quazar2]

You cant get two contracted guns in one off-season unless an unbelievable set of moons align. If one was uncontracted you could

Freo's current moons:

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Then the moons will need to unbelievably align. Chad Warner's one year contracted is small time in the scheme of the players looking to shift around this off season.

What are the chances you have of both coming this year?

 

[kuhni]

I don’t mind the maths. Albeit an incredibly small sample and also our picks will likely not be actual top 10 picks.

I’d prefer to zoom out. Sure Walls has been decent.

However let’s take a bracket of players, from say pick 10-15. Go back however long you want to. Is there any 2 player combos that you’d rather have over Bolton? I’m sure there will be, but out of all the options?

2023: Caddy, O’Sullivan, Gothard, Tholstrup, Rogers, Croft - Caddy looks special, but way too early to judge these guys. By large been non contributors. Theres 30 combos possible here. I’d be happy to accept Caddy and any other player would be equal to Bolton. So 5/30 = 16%

2022: Phillipou, Hollands, Fletcher, Busslinger, Hewitt, Jefferson - I personally wouldn’t take any 2 of these guys over Bolton for now. Again too early to judge. 0/30 = 0%

2021: Erasmus, Milera, Sinn, Hobbs, Chesser, Aleer - Wanganeen-Milera is great, but wouldn’t pair him up with any other player over Bolton. 0/30 = 0%

2020: Reid, Pedlar, Bruhn, Powell, Chapman, Stone - getting slightly better but I’d pass on any 2 player combo here for Bolton. 0/30 = 0%

2019: Green, Flanders, Pickett, Day, Berger, Weightman - I’m happy to concede every 2 player option here you’d take over Bolton. 30/30 = 100%

My point is, when a team has a couple of picks around 10 and give it up, they often cite who they could’ve had that fell around the mark and ignore the other guys who were clearly rated around the mark.

The above shows you that 2 picks around 10-15 still has hits and misses, more often than not misses.

Would also need to consider this draft being called an "even top end". But you have a good point, Picks 6-10 is more of a sweetspot and would have a much better strike-rate.

 

[Taylor]

What are the chances you have of both coming this year?

I'm expecting the farm to be sold. The NGA coming back online has introduced two potential first round picks to our squad in 2025 that we don't need first round picks for. It's opened the door to leaving nothing on the table for us at the draft in 2024 and 2025.

Couple that with the "family reasons" from Bolton, his media work is a direct result of the news of Warner being courted by Fremantle for this off season - Warner is the reason we have 3x first round picks this year, Warner is the player being paid half to 2/3 his actual market value in 2025 if he stays.

This is Bolton's chance to jump ship and he is the one who will push the agenda publicly to leverage himself out.

That's why I said his deal will either be the first one done or the last.

Chances of both happening? Medium.

Contingent on Shai Bolton being happy to accept a pay cut for two to three years, made up in the last four because I'm not expecting Richmond to want to pay his salary getting second bite of the sausage.

Chad Warner requesting a trade and it going through first and we will have them both by end of trade period.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I'm expecting the farm to be sold. The NGA coming back online has introduced two potential first round picks to our squad in 2025 that we don't need first round picks for. It's opened the door to leaving nothing on the table for us at the draft in 2024 and 2025.

Couple that with the "family reasons" from Bolton, his media work is a direct result of the news of Warner being courted by Fremantle for this off season - Warner is the reason we have 3x first round picks this year, Warner is the player being paid half to 2/3 his actual market value in 2025 if he stays.

This is Bolton's chance to jump ship and he is the one who will push the agenda publicly to leverage himself out.

That's why I said his deal will either be the first one done or the last.

Chances of both happening? Medium.

Contingent on Shai Bolton being happy to accept a pay cut for two to three years, made up in the last four because I'm not expecting Richmond to want to pay his salary getting second bite of the sausage.

Chad Warner requesting a trade and it going through first and we will have them both by end of trade period.

I'll never publicly pull up one of deliberately antagonistic trades again (by the way, you have work to do to compete with the Richmond board) if both happen this year. I just cant see it

 

[freo84]

Walls on JLOs back at trade period

 

[Taylor]

I'll never publicly pull up one of deliberately antagonistic trades again (by the way, you have work to do to compete with the Richmond board) if both happen this year. I just cant see it

Something like:

#8, #9/F1 and #26 for Warner, #18
#9/F1, #16 and #18 for Bolton and #34

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Something like:

#8, #9/F1 and #26 for Warner, #18
#9/F1, #16 and #18 for Bolton and #34

Haha, I just cant see it

 

[Alfonz]

I'm very confident that Warner is 0% chance to come here end of 2024. Sydney are in flag mode and will dig their heels in like Papley, O'Keefe. They won't care about 2024 draft picks that will give them much less on the field than Warner next year.

 

[Cobbler]

Would also need to consider this draft being called an "even top end". But you have a good point, Picks 6-10 is more of a sweetspot and would have a much better strike-rate.

Yes. If we had pick 5 I’d be incredibly more hesitant. I’d not want to part with that at all, but probably still would if we still had 2 firsts.

9 and 10 likely 11 and 12 just pushes out those really highly rated guys and you start to gamble more with speculative stuff.

I don’t buy into stacked drafts etc. It may end up that way, but they’re often called deep.

I actually think that because there are 6 or so vying for top spot tells me it’s pretty shite.

 

[FD2646]

I'll have some of that.

How about the Freo game. AP with the gift.

Smart by the captain to put down a deposit.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I'm very confident that Warner is 0% chance to come here end of 2024. Sydney are in flag mode and will dig their heels in like Papley, O'Keefe. They won't care about 2024 draft picks that will give them much less on the field than Warner next year.

The more interesting thing to me is just how big a truck would we have backed up to Sydney if Bolton WASNT asking to join?

 

[kuhni]

I'm expecting the farm to be sold. The NGA coming back online has introduced two potential first round picks to our squad in 2025 that we don't need first round picks for. It's opened the door to leaving nothing on the table for us at the draft in 2024 and 2025.

Couple that with the "family reasons" from Bolton, his media work is a direct result of the news of Warner being courted by Fremantle for this off season - Warner is the reason we have 3x first round picks this year, Warner is the player being paid half to 2/3 his actual market value in 2025 if he stays.

This is Bolton's chance to jump ship and he is the one who will push the agenda publicly to leverage himself out.

That's why I said his deal will either be the first one done or the last.

Chances of both happening? Medium.

Contingent on Shai Bolton being happy to accept a pay cut for two to three years, made up in the last four because I'm not expecting Richmond to want to pay his salary getting second bite of the sausage.

Chad Warner requesting a trade and it going through first and we will have them both by end of trade period.

Will we need one of the first rounders to satisfy the points requirements of these NGA with the discount going down and points table being weighted to the first two rounds?

 

[Cobbler]

I'm expecting the farm to be sold. The NGA coming back online has introduced two potential first round picks to our squad in 2025 that we don't need first round picks for. It's opened the door to leaving nothing on the table for us at the draft in 2024 and 2025.

Couple that with the "family reasons" from Bolton, his media work is a direct result of the news of Warner being courted by Fremantle for this off season - Warner is the reason we have 3x first round picks this year, Warner is the player being paid half to 2/3 his actual market value in 2025 if he stays.

This is Bolton's chance to jump ship and he is the one who will push the agenda publicly to leverage himself out.

That's why I said his deal will either be the first one done or the last.

Chances of both happening? Medium.

Contingent on Shai Bolton being happy to accept a pay cut for two to three years, made up in the last four because I'm not expecting Richmond to want to pay his salary getting second bite of the sausage.

Chad Warner requesting a trade and it going through first and we will have them both by end of trade period.

Who are our 2025 NGA prospects?

 

[DragoDelph]

Only way Warner becomes live this year, is if a more important piece becomes available to them.

A true key forward, a key back, something like that.

 

[Lach72]

Who are our 2025 NGA prospects?

Hart and Toby Whan

 

[Dockeroo]

I wonder if we will get an update on Moana Hopes bub on Trade Radio this year.
Must be a toddler at this stage.

 

[guidodp15]

Does anythink Brayshaw is a chance of leaving? I never like stars delaying contract talks until the end of season. Also how do we fit Serong,Warner, Young and Brayshaw in the midfield?

Cap space taken by Serong,Young,Bolton,Jackson and Darcy.

Fyfe,Walters and tabs likely to clear up some but not that much so pay all the big boys long term.

Also Andy's MRS is from Melbourne and we all know They call the shows on where they live not the players.

 

[s_wd6]

Does anythink Brayshaw is a chance of leaving? I never like stars delaying contract talks until the end of season. Also how do we fit Serong,Warner, Young and Brayshaw in the midfield?

Cap space taken by Serong,Young,Bolton,Jackson and Darcy.

Fyfe,Walters and tabs likely to clear up some but not that much so pay all the big boys long term.

Also Andy's MRS is from Melbourne and we all know They call the shows on where they live not the players.

Not at all.