Would also need to consider this draft being called an "even top end". But you have a good point, Picks 6-10 is more of a sweetspot and would have a much better strike-rate.I don’t mind the maths. Albeit an incredibly small sample and also our picks will likely not be actual top 10 picks.
I’d prefer to zoom out. Sure Walls has been decent.
However let’s take a bracket of players, from say pick 10-15. Go back however long you want to. Is there any 2 player combos that you’d rather have over Bolton? I’m sure there will be, but out of all the options?
2023: Caddy, O’Sullivan, Gothard, Tholstrup, Rogers, Croft - Caddy looks special, but way too early to judge these guys. By large been non contributors. Theres 30 combos possible here. I’d be happy to accept Caddy and any other player would be equal to Bolton. So 5/30 = 16%
2022: Phillipou, Hollands, Fletcher, Busslinger, Hewitt, Jefferson - I personally wouldn’t take any 2 of these guys over Bolton for now. Again too early to judge. 0/30 = 0%
2021: Erasmus, Milera, Sinn, Hobbs, Chesser, Aleer - Wanganeen-Milera is great, but wouldn’t pair him up with any other player over Bolton. 0/30 = 0%
2020: Reid, Pedlar, Bruhn, Powell, Chapman, Stone - getting slightly better but I’d pass on any 2 player combo here for Bolton. 0/30 = 0%
2019: Green, Flanders, Pickett, Day, Berger, Weightman - I’m happy to concede every 2 player option here you’d take over Bolton. 30/30 = 100%
My point is, when a team has a couple of picks around 10 and give it up, they often cite who they could’ve had that fell around the mark and ignore the other guys who were clearly rated around the mark.
The above shows you that 2 picks around 10-15 still has hits and misses, more often than not misses.