List Mgmt. 2024 List Management thread - Trade Targets Part 2

[s_wd6]

It's innaccurate, but I think it would be in the ballpark. Someone like Ryan would be the main question mark for us. I think it is a bit of a "dual AA, must be paid well" guess.

My main query would be on Geelong. It seems crazy they would only have 3 players, but then again when I watched them v Freo and again on the weekend, and the thing that stood out was how even they were. Their worst player on the ground was still pretty good. I would think going forward they'd have Stengle, Holmes and De Koning on decent coin. Bailey Smith incoming?

It also makes sense to see how Hawthorn have room for Barrass and Battle. I wondered a few years ago whether they'd be paying Sicily 2 million front loaded, because he was the only gun on the list. Moore and Day are now there, but maybe their current contracts don't reflect that.

Some are definitely accurate. Like I’d imagine guys like Ryan and Darcy and Jackson are there. But there’s way too much guess work to take much merit in it.

Hawks obviously would have a lot of space since they have no superstars, but I’m not buying the narrative out of Geelong

 

[go_the_dockers]

Boltons difference is he is a genuine clearance mid as well. Its why he's on the money he's on. Yes, I have Pickett as the better pure small forward, and honestly, arguably the most valuable in the game given his age. I honestly struggle to believe we could be stupid enough to not commit everything to him if he genuinely wants to join.

I really hope we get a 2 more small forwards this year, so we don't pigeon hole into the small forward role and miss his value.

Both don't need to be best 22, but at least we will have depth in the area, and won't be forced to play mids as small forwards.

 

[wakojako]

If we get Bolton and Warner, get ready to lose a few decent players shortly down the road. Nothing surer

If we trade Switta and Richmond pay another $3-400k, bringing in Bolton will barely move the salary cap needle.

 

[Dockeroo]

Some are definitely accurate. Like I’d imagine guys like Ryan and Darcy and Jackson are there. But there’s way too much guess work to take much merit in it.

Hawks obviously would have a lot of space since they have no superstars, but I’m not buying the narrative out of Geelong

Yeah I agree on Geelong. Players like Gryan Miers should also be on decent coin he was close to AA last year and is 25 years old now.
Holmes has just signed a big money 4 year deal for next year. Dempsey has just won a rising star. I think it was about 4 years ago that mark Duffield told us that the rising star winner each year earns about $495k in their third season. That will only have gone up too since then.

Also as I mentioned earlier there is just no way Cam Guthrie is not on decent money. Signed a 4 year deal in 2021 as a reigning B&F winner in a grand final team coming off an AA award, he just HAS to be on a sizeable deal of $750k per annum minimum. Must be backended this year or something.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

If we trade Switta, Richmond pay another $3-400k, bringing in Bolton will barely move the salary cap needle.

They aren't paying 300-400k for a few years for shits and giggles. That means Bolton is costing 9 and 10 so how are we getting Warner this year?

I'll take this a step further. There is only one football and so many midfield minutes and cap to go around. Warner AND Bolton is poor value and list management for what we'll pay and terrible list management if it means we've passed on Pickett.

 

[Taylor]

I think we want our smalls who are forwards to have near midfielder stamina to be able to

Yeah I agree on Geelong. Players like Gryan Miers should also be on decent coin he was close to AA last year and is 25 years old now.
Holmes has just signed a big money 4 year deal for next year. Dempsey has just won a rising star. I think it was about 4 years ago that mark Duffield told us that the rising star winner each year earns about $495k in their third season. That will only have gone up too since then.

Also as I mentioned earlier there is just no way Cam Guthrie is not on decent money. Signed a 4 year deal in 2021 as a reigning B&F winner in a grand final team coming off an AA award, he just HAS to be on a sizeable deal of $750k per annum minimum. Must be backended this year or something.

Geelong are in a position to offer contracts where finals payments (not on the cap) go to players on the list longest in return for them taking lower salaries. The clubs can distribute the money the AFL pays them for finals appearances however they want.

Far more reliable appearances for them too.

 

[pK75]

I think we want our smalls who are forwards to have near midfielder stamina to be able to


Geelong are in a position to offer contracts where finals payments (not on the cap) go to players on the list longest in return for them taking lower salaries. The clubs can distribute the money the AFL pays them for finals appearances however they want.

Far more reliable appearances for them too.

I wonder if that’s how Boltons “triggers” push him up from 1mil to 1.2. Based on finals appearances (which the AFL pay) if that is the case, he’s only taking home 1mil per year if he stays at Richmond, so for us to it down to 800 we only need them to cough up $200k per year, is that pick 14 worthy?

 

[Taylor]

I wonder if that’s how Boltons “triggers” push him up from 1mil to 1.2. Based on finals appearances (which the AFL pay) if that is the case, he’s only taking home 1mil per year if he stays at Richmond, so for us to it down to 800 we only need them to cough up $200k per year, is that pick 14 worthy?

Usually the triggers are: games played, goals kicked, B&F placing, Brownlow, AA selection etc.

It would be quite special for Richmond, Fremantle and a third club were involved in a three way trade where one of our picks goes with Lynch to the third and Lynch/Rioli salary and Bolton come to Freo.

Pies future first to Richmond, Lynch, pick #15 and #29 to Pies - but it's not like they are struggling for cap.

 

[malpaso]

The concern is that we are locked into cox and Darcy and they are underperforming for whatever reason, but still costing us big money.

Also I think the list this morning is a little inaccurate in some areas.
No one can tell me Josh Dunkley is not in the top 100 paid players in the AFL.
Although there could be some big names taking a down year on their deals in 2024 that are hence not appearing on their list. Eg if Dunkley is taking 550k this year and $950k next year, it’s still an average salary of 750k over two years but he would not appear on this list

Cmon, Cox has been great. He had a severe hamstring injury in Round 1 this year and he's underperforming?
Darcy I'll give you, his injury history should have been given more time by the list management squad but he actually seemed past it when he signed.
Injuries are a part of professional sport. I'm confident they both return next year in tip top.

 

[Ge3ks]

Yeah some people forget just how good a fully fit Brennan Cox

36

Brennan Cox

Age

26

Ht

195cm

Wt

97kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.1

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

5.3

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.1

4star

MG

182.8

3star

D

12.3

3star

K

7.5

3star

HB

4.8

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.0

2star

MG

182.8

3star

D

11.0

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.8

4star

is.

 

[apuchar]

This Cox stuff is hilarious.

 

[s_wd6]

Yeah some people forget just how good a fully fit Brennan Cox is.

Tbf he was fully fit last year and wasn’t great. A fit and in form Brennan is great though. Hope we can see it again one day.

 

[eastfreo75]

I think we want our smalls who are forwards to have near midfielder stamina to be able to


Geelong are in a position to offer contracts where finals payments (not on the cap) go to players on the list longest in return for them taking lower salaries. The clubs can distribute the money the AFL pays them for finals appearances however they want.

Far more reliable appearances for them too.

Do you know the breakdown of final payments?

 

[Dockeroo]

Cmon, Cox has been great. He had a severe hamstring injury in Round 1 this year and he's underperforming?
Darcy I'll give you, his injury history should have been given more time by the list management squad but he actually seemed past it when he signed.
Injuries are a part of professional sport. I'm confident they both return next year in tip top.

Cox is fine. When he’s fit. Was pretty terrible at the end of this season but I’ll accept that he’s decent when fully fit. I do think he’s in that category that is potentially overrated by his own fans but anyway.


The question for us is do we end up losing another elite player in 2 years time because our cap is bursting and we are paying cox $700k plus per annum till 2031. That’s when it becomes an issue.
I see our cap being at bursting point in 2028 and 2029. Serong, Brayshaw and Young will all be earning around $1.3 million at least in those years (if we can keep them).
We’d want to have a flag before then otherwise someone good will fall out of the list

 

[Dirty_banchez]

I think that Ryan Daniels article was born from a conversation on the Hard Ball Gets podcast. Ellis and Nic seemed to think Chad Warner

1

Chad Warner

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.0

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

2star

CL

0.0

1star

D

7.0

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

4star

CL

0.0

1star

was a bigger priority than Pickett.

I'm not so certain it's as clear cut as the guys think. However, I think Sydney are a bigger chance to let Warner go than Melbourne are for Pickett.

 

[freo_leo29]

Herald Sun with the AFL Rich 100 today - just to aid with salary cap debates.

Darcy, Cox, Young, Ryan - $700-800k.
Jackson, Serong, Brayshaw - $800-900k.
Shai Bolton - $1 - 1.1mil, up to $1.2mil with triggers/bonuses.

For lols - Tom Lynch - $1.45-1.55mil

These are confirmed guesstimates btw, just for anyone playing along at home

 

[freo_leo29]

Tbf he was fully fit last year and wasn’t great. A fit and in form Brennan is great though. Hope we can see it again one day.

He missed preseason last year, had a knee infection

 

[Taylor]

Do you know the breakdown of final payments?

I haven't been able to get a clear answer on it anywhere but I'm lead to believe it could be worth the salary of four to five good players for a deep finals run.

 

[s_wd6]

He missed preseason last year, had a knee infection

Only a couple weeks though. And started the season well so didn’t really hamper him

 

[TheLastCall]

Can we just resign O’Driscoll now.

 

[gaskin]

Can we just resign O’Driscoll now.

I would rather we re-sign him.

 

[DragoDelph]

I would rather we re-sign him.

Thank you!!

 

[eastfreo75]

I haven't been able to get a clear answer on it anywhere but I'm lead to believe it could be worth the salary of four to five good players for a deep finals run.

That sounds like it's better to do a Geelong and top up every year.

 

[Yeti]

I would rather we re-sign him.

There should be a BF auto filter on resign.

 

[Purpletown]

On Brennan Cox

36

Brennan Cox

Age

26

Ht

195cm

Wt

97kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.1

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

5.3

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.1

4star

MG

182.8

3star

D

12.3

3star

K

7.5

3star

HB

4.8

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.0

2star

MG

182.8

3star

D

11.0

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.8

4star

, his effort in the game against Geelong was dismal to say the least. He often looks a bit casual but he looked outright lazy in that game. He played with a lot more intensity the following week to his credit.

Hopefully he and Darcy can get fit for 2025. If not we are going to have another rough season.