List Mgmt. 2024 List Management thread - Trade Targets

[go_the_dockers]

If you want to know the importance of turning over list spots regularly (more than what most people on here because they get too emotionally attached to fringe players) just take a look back at what we did in the 2020 off season.
We delisted a heap that year and even re rookied some who became UFAs such as Schultz (infamously) and Banfield.

But it crucially freed up the list spots to roll the dice on a young tall forward at around 3:05 pm the day after the main draft, at pick 7 in the rookie draft.

He was a nobody back then that didn’t register on anyone’s radar that day bar the most extreme of draft nerds here on BF but 4 years later he might just be the most important player we have.

If we didn’t cut hard on the list in that 2020 off season we wouldn’t have Josh Treacy right now.

Great post.

Agree.

This is the same reason I don't like being in players like Martin. They waste list spots.

 

[eastfreo75]

Personally I think these numbers are false - Let’s look at our picks between 2016 and 2021 and who’ll get to 50 games

2016
Logue - Yes
Darcy - Yes
Cox - Yes
Ryan - Yes

2017
Brayshaw - Yes
Cerra - Yes
Dixon - No
Crowden - No
North - No
Meek - Yes (May have already?)
Switta - Yes
Jones - No

2018
Sturt - Probably (based off fitness only)
Valente - No
Schultz- Yes
Bewley - No

2019
Young - Yes
Serong - Yes
Henry - Yes
Frederick - Yes

2020
Chapman - Yes (Is he there yet?)
O’Driscoll - 50/50
Walker - Yes
Western - No

2021
Amiss - Yes
Erasmus - 50/50
Johnson - Probably
Benning - No

Reality is IMO 50 games isn’t that many but even if that’s all they play they’d still added useful depth for 3-4 years minimum (assuming it’s a good team).

I’d say a strike rate of 30% would be closer to the success rate of getting to 50 games outside the first round tbh.

AFL Draft Pick Value Comparison - All Time - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

 

[Docker82]

It’s total listed AFL players, regardless of where they were drafted, as far as I know.
You forgot guys like
Jason carter
Ryan nyhuis
Taylin Duman
Jarvis Pina
Isiah butters
Leno thomas
Dylan o reilly
Sebit kuek
Strnardica
Grey
Deluca
Giro
Watson
Worner
Williams
Reidy

I know these guys are generally less likely to play more games than higher draft picks, but they are still AFL players taking up list spots.

I listed all National Draft picks between 2016 and 2021. All names you’ve listed above are either rookies or drafted earlier than that. FWIW I don’t think it gets much worse if you go back to 2013 to include guys like Grey and Deluca. It’s 1/3 for 2013, 3/4 for 2014 and 2/4 for 2015 i.e. slightly over 50%.

Going back to your original post, if you’re talking about National Draft picks there’s a much greater chance than 30% a player plays 50 games. It’s common sense really - the higher the draft selection, the higher the chance is of getting a guy that adds useful depth to list or is a best 22.

Once you’ve used your top 40-50 selections (let’s say it depends on the year) it’s very much down to where your list is at IMO - Some random depth player probably gets cut in a rebuild to take pick 50-odd or an extra rookie but probably gets is retained if you’re looking be top four the next year. We’re not quite there yet but we’re close enough we should be thinking that’s possible next year.

 

[Stinky Lomax]

Great post.

Agree.

This is the same reason I don't like being in players like Martin. They waste list spots.

It would be nice to think that the club considered it, did it’s due diligence & then decided ‘no thanks’

 

[Dockeroo]

I listed all National Draft picks between 2016 and 2021. All names you’ve listed above are either rookies or drafted earlier than that. FWIW I don’t think it gets much worse if you go back to 2013 to include guys like Grey and Deluca. It’s 1/3 for 2013, 3/4 for 2014 and 2/4 for 2015 i.e. slightly over 50%.

Going back to your original post, if you’re talking about National Draft picks there’s a much greater chance than 30% a player plays 50 games. It’s common sense really - the higher the draft selection, the higher the chance is of getting a guy that adds useful depth to list or is a best 22.

Once you’ve used your top 40-50 selections (let’s say it depends on the year) it’s very much down to where your list is at IMO - Some random depth player probably gets cut in a rebuild to take pick 50-odd or an extra rookie but probably gets is retained if you’re looking be top four the next year. We’re not quite there yet but we’re close enough we should be thinking that’s possible next year.

I’d argue you need to be taking more not less rookie and late picks when you are in the top 4.
Geelong certainly don’t seem to turn over their list any less aggressively in the last 15 years or so.

They are the most active club in Ireland for example, and always seems to be rookie drafting guys like Dempsey, Close, Atkins, and using late picks on Humphries and the likes.

My point has always been that 18 months or two years is ample time for a rookie to demonstrate what they can do or even show signs of being a future piece, and if the club believes they won’t make it after seeing them for that duration as a listed player - ship them out and get the next one in.

Clinging on an extra year or two on the list to the likes of Sebit Kuek, Isiah Butters, Eric Benning, Jarvis Pina, Jason Carter, Tobe Watson, even Ethan Stanley this year potentially, means there’s less chances of finding those diamonds in the rough like Treacy and Draper.

Its a bit different for top 30 picks as the sunk cost fallacy becomes a genuine issue for all clubs so they often give an extra year or years for players to show they are at the level when drafted in this range.

 

[Purple Suit]

If you want to know the importance of turning over list spots regularly (more than what most people on here because they get too emotionally attached to fringe players) just take a look back at what we did in the 2020 off season.
We delisted a heap that year and even re rookied some who became UFAs such as Schultz (infamously) and Banfield.

But it crucially freed up the list spots to roll the dice on a young tall forward at around 3:05 pm the day after the main draft, at pick 7 in the rookie draft.

He was a nobody back then that didn’t register on anyone’s radar that day bar the most extreme of draft nerds here on BF but 4 years later he might just be the most important player we have.

If we didn’t cut hard on the list in that 2020 off season we wouldn’t have Josh Treacy right now.

Treacy is an interesting case. He broke out in his 4th season but didn’t have much more than glimpses through the other years. But he got games as we had very few options and he managed to get past his competition.

The game time opportunity ship has sailed, you need to perform or not play. There are no longer development spots in the team. Therefore the chances of a rookie hitting our list in 2024 & breaking out in 2028 are probably tiny. Especially since there is no Covid to mask a rookie picks production.

Who ever fills those last few list spots probably needs to be a mature age player for more impact. Keeping them or picking up a new one doesn’t really matter.

 

[freo_leo29]

I'm just annoyed how much baker is gonna cost

If our plan is to play him as the defensive mid that we are sorely lacking then I can see why we want him so bad tbh

 

[Docker82]

I’d argue you need to be taking more not less rookie and late picks when you are in the top 4.
Geelong certainly don’t seem to turn over their list any less aggressively in the last 15 years or so.

They are the most active club in Ireland for example, and always seems to be rookie drafting guys like Dempsey, Close, Atkins, and using late picks on Humphries and the likes.

My point has always been that 18 months or two years is ample time for a rookie to demonstrate what they can do or even show signs of being a future piece, and if the club believes they won’t make it after seeing them for that duration as a listed player - ship them out and get the next one in.

Clinging on an extra year or two on the list to the likes of Sebit Kuek, Isiah Butters, Eric Benning, Jarvis Pina, Jason Carter, Tobe Watson, even Ethan Stanley this year potentially, means there’s less chances of finding those diamonds in the rough like Treacy and Draper.

Its a bit different for top 30 picks as the sunk cost fallacy becomes a genuine issue for all clubs so they often give an extra year or years for players to show they are at the level when drafted in this range.

I do think I agree with the overall point you're trying to make having argued many times we should always take 3-4 picks minimum in National Draft. I'd normally want five new players brought in overall tbh.

My reasoning for thinking slightly different this year is I think they'll be 6-7 changes next year tbh.

If we keep players like Knobel or Emmett I can easily see them surviving the cull in 2025 and our list simply benefits from that.

 

[Purple Suit]

I'm just annoyed how much baker is gonna cost

If our plan is to play him as the defensive mid that we are sorely lacking then I can see why we want him so bad tbh

I think it will be worth it. Baker is a clutch, one touch player who is 26. Watching our last month we needed more like that.

Get Bolton & him in and don’t lose anyone and we’re top 4 last year. Add in more natural improvement than decline and we’re challenging.

 

[Purpletown]

I think it will be worth it. Baker is a clutch, one touch player who is 26. Watching our last month we needed more like that.

Get Bolton & him in and don’t lose anyone and we’re top 4 last year. Add in more natural improvement than decline and we’re challenging.

Baker is no chance to rest on his laurels if he were to end up at Freo. He would be a valuable asset for us. Whether his price is too high or not is another matter altogether.

 

[Superkoops]

If we retain our players and just add Bolton I’m actually ok with that. We can shuffle draft picks and set ourselves up nicely.

Baker will be an early second round pick trade. He is out of contract, but unlikely to force a PSD demand. So there will be a slight sweetener to the deal for Richmond.

WC has pick 23 - that alone wont get the deal done.

There are three potential FA compo picks that could all settle before pick 23 - Battle, Membrey, Cumming. Even Graham is offered 4 years so he could get band 3 which would be a draft pick after Richmond’s first round pick. So that 23 could be 26. Membrey actually prob band 3 and therefore after St Kilda second round.

Our pick 27 therefore becomes pick 30. Absolutely no chance of getting the deal done. Richmond will only want early picks. Our best bet is tying it in with Bolton and that will involve pick 9 and 10.

If Baker chooses WC then the reward is we will keep one of the two early picks.

 

[CaseySibosadoHOF]

I'm just annoyed how much baker is gonna cost

If our plan is to play him as the defensive mid that we are sorely lacking then I can see why we want him so bad tbh

Surely Baker's too short to be the primary defensive mid, right? Bedford is probably the shortest guy that gets that role (his is more specific opponent tagging than general defensive mid) and even he's a fair bit taller.

 

[go_the_dockers]

I'm just annoyed how much baker is gonna cost

If our plan is to play him as the defensive mid that we are sorely lacking then I can see why we want him so bad tbh

Surely Baker's too short to be the primary defensive mid, right? Bedford is probably the shortest guy that gets that role (his is more specific opponent tagging than general defensive mid) and even he's a fair bit taller.

I doubt we will see him in the centre square.

He can play back flank, inside mid or forward flank very well.

 

[mattis117]

Surely Baker's too short to be the primary defensive mid, right? Bedford is probably the shortest guy that gets that role (his is more specific opponent tagging than general defensive mid) and even he's a fair bit taller.

He'll be one of the cogs that moves through the middle. Personally I'm hoping Erasmus puts a bit more size on over this off-season and takes up that role. NOD is a possible for it as well.

Two biggest holes in the 22 are small forward and replacing Fyfe. We should be able to fill both through either trades or natural development from within.

 

[apuchar]

Wasn't a great call by Hamling

MAINSTAY HAWK APPROACHED BY RIVALS

Key Hawthorn defensive figure Sam Frost

8

Sam Frost

Age

31

Ht

194cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.4

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

3.7

4star

T

1.9

4star

MG

191.6

3star

D

10.5

3star

K

6.3

3star

HB

4.3

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.5

2star

MG

191.6

3star

D

11.2

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.4

4star

has reportedly been approached by Sydney, as the club looks to sharpen its defensive stocks heading into 2025.

 

[Ge3ks]

Wasn't a great call by Hamling

MAINSTAY HAWK APPROACHED BY RIVALS

Key Hawthorn defensive figure Sam Frost has reportedly been approached by Sydney, as the club looks to sharpen its defensive stocks heading into 2025.

Sydney have turned Hamling into a forward.

 

[go_the_dockers]

DragoDelph - can you change the Poll for the thread, to be "What is the maximum you would pay for Shai Bolton

29

Shai Bolton

Age

25

Ht

176cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.3

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

12.7

3star

K

9.2

4star

HB

3.5

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.7

4star

CL

1.8

4star

D

9.2

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

4.6

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.0

1star

?"

I saw the same poll on Twitter, but I can't change it.

Options
9 or 10
9 and 25
9 and 17
9 and 10

Thanks

 

[Boppo]

Don't think I'm going ahead on this one at all. He's not Pearce, Ryan or Cox but he's best 22 for a lot of teams throughout the competition IMO.

Unlike Logue I think he's worth doing everything we can to keep. He can actually kick for a start.

He's NOT a state league player.

He was necessarily fast tracked to become a reliable replacement for a key back but there were games towards the end where he really started to take the opposition head on and run at them. He can take that experience black to the reserves and learn to dominate as an attacking defender, not just defend.

 

[eastfreo75]

He'll be one of the cogs that moves through the middle. Personally I'm hoping Erasmus puts a bit more size on over this off-season and takes up that role. NOD is a possible for it as well.

Two biggest holes in the 22 are small forward and replacing Fyfe. We should be able to fill both through either trades or natural development from within.

Fyfe performance was all over the shop.

Can Erasmus go past Fyfe of 2024? I think he can.

Bolton will fill small forward hole in spades.

 

[go_the_dockers]

DragoDelph - can you change the Poll for the thread, to be "What is the maximum you would pay for Shai Bolton?"

I saw the same poll on Twitter, but I can't change it.

Options
9 or 10
9 and 25
9 and 17
9 and 10

Thanks

DragoDelph -Thanks

I am not sure which one has more value.

9 and 17 or 9 and a F1.

I think that is a 50/50 call.

 

[eastfreo75]

DragoDelph - can you change the Poll for the thread, to be "What is the maximum you would pay for Shai Bolton?"

I saw the same poll on Twitter, but I can't change it.

Options
9 or 10
9 and 25
9 and 17
9 and 10

Thanks

9 and 17 seems fine with me.

Stills gives us picks 10,25 to go to the draft.

 

[DragoDelph]

DragoDelph -Thanks

I am not sure which one has more value.

9 and 17 or 9 and a F1.

I think that is a 50/50 call.

Depends on how you think we'll go next year really.

 

[go_the_dockers]

Bolton will fill small forward hole in spades.

Assuming we get Bolton, I really hope we get another small forward with him.

I think to get value from him, you need him running through the middle at least 15% of the game, and roaming up the ground for large chunks of the rest of the game.

Would love for the 7 forwards to be

Amiss, Treacy, Jackson, Sturt
Switta, Bolton, (Forward pocket e.g. Berry or Hannaford)

Switta could even be moved into the midfield rotation, if we had another quality small forward.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Can I ask for a slight addendum that it be 9 and 10 with salary paid and picks?

 

[go_the_dockers]

Depends on how you think we'll go next year really.

How the drafts compare?
How much a discount you get for delaying the picks you take?
Where you think we will end up?

You would have to bet we end with pick 11 to 16 next year.