- Feb 8, 2017
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- Hawthorn
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I've had Bontempelli locked in all preseason at M1 but as silly as it sounds, I still have my doubts.
As good as he has been, his average of 130 last season was a 'career year' and is an outlier. Before that he averaged 115/116 for 3 of the previous 4 years, with a previous best season of 120.
There are lots of other premium mids who consistently average 115/116 who are at least 80-100K cheaper (as Bont will soon be).
On top of that, no one since GAJ has ever backed up that level before.
In 2022, the top scorer for the season was Laird (128). He dropped to 117 in 2023.
In 2021, the top scorer was Macrae (129). He dropped to 115 the following year (and further last year).
In 2020, the top scorer was Gawn (140). He dropped to 121 the following year (Neale was the top mid at 134 - he dropped to 100).
In 2019, the top scorer was Grundy (130). He dropped to 121 the following year
In 2018, the top scorer was Tom Mitchell (130). He didn't play again in 2019 but averaged 113 in 2020.
On and on it goes. In short, I think he will revert to his 'regular' scores, making him 80-100K overpriced and available for cheaper later. Yes, he's still going to be a top 8 mid, is a captaincy option and doesn't miss games so isn't a bad pick but it seems funny to worry about value everywhere else and then willing overspend when you can probably get the same ave from one of the 600K options rather than a $725K option.
Doesn't the CARL injuries open up an opportunity for George H ?View attachment 1926633
"Usually I like to pick a pod to make the game more interesting. Adam Cerra has an upward trend and with natural improvement/development with Walsh and Bless my his Docherty going down its basically Cripps/Cerra sharing the pill for the next 2-3weeks. Can see him average 115 this year." yy y yy y y y y yy y y
Doesn't the CARL injuries open up an opportunity for George H ?
Do you have English?I've had Bontempelli locked in all preseason at M1 but as silly as it sounds, I still have my doubts.
As good as he has been, his average of 130 last season was a 'career year' and is an outlier. Before that he averaged 115/116 for 3 of the previous 4 years, with a previous best season of 120.
There are lots of other premium mids who consistently average 115/116 who are at least 80-100K cheaper (as Bont will soon be).
On top of that, no one since GAJ has ever backed up that level before.
In 2022, the top scorer for the season was Laird (128). He dropped to 117 in 2023.
In 2021, the top scorer was Macrae (129). He dropped to 115 the following year (and further last year).
In 2020, the top scorer was Gawn (140). He dropped to 121 the following year (Neale was the top mid at 134 - he dropped to 100).
In 2019, the top scorer was Grundy (130). He dropped to 121 the following year
In 2018, the top scorer was Tom Mitchell (130). He didn't play again in 2019 but averaged 113 in 2020.
On and on it goes. In short, I think he will revert to his 'regular' scores, making him 80-100K overpriced and available for cheaper later. Yes, he's still going to be a top 8 mid, is a captaincy option and doesn't miss games so isn't a bad pick but it seems funny to worry about value everywhere else and then willing overspend when you can probably get the same ave from one of the 600K options rather than a $725K option.
I've had Bontempelli locked in all preseason at M1 but as silly as it sounds, I still have my doubts.
As good as he has been, his average of 130 last season was a 'career year' and is an outlier. Before that he averaged 115/116 for 3 of the previous 4 years, with a previous best season of 120.
There are lots of other premium mids who consistently average 115/116 who are at least 80-100K cheaper (as Bont will soon be).
On top of that, no one since GAJ has ever backed up that level before.
In 2022, the top scorer for the season was Laird (128). He dropped to 117 in 2023.
In 2021, the top scorer was Macrae (129). He dropped to 115 the following year (and further last year).
In 2020, the top scorer was Gawn (140). He dropped to 121 the following year (Neale was the top mid at 134 - he dropped to 100).
In 2019, the top scorer was Grundy (130). He dropped to 121 the following year
In 2018, the top scorer was Tom Mitchell (130). He didn't play again in 2019 but averaged 113 in 2020.
On and on it goes. In short, I think he will revert to his 'regular' scores, making him 80-100K overpriced and available for cheaper later. Yes, he's still going to be a top 8 mid, is a captaincy option and doesn't miss games so isn't a bad pick but it seems funny to worry about value everywhere else and then willing overspend when you can probably get the same ave from one of the 600K options rather than a $725K option.
I've had Bontempelli locked in all preseason at M1 but as silly as it sounds, I still have my doubts.
As good as he has been, his average of 130 last season was a 'career year' and is an outlier. Before that he averaged 115/116 for 3 of the previous 4 years, with a previous best season of 120.
There are lots of other premium mids who consistently average 115/116 who are at least 80-100K cheaper (as Bont will soon be).
On top of that, no one since GAJ has ever backed up that level before.
In 2022, the top scorer for the season was Laird (128). He dropped to 117 in 2023.
In 2021, the top scorer was Macrae (129). He dropped to 115 the following year (and further last year).
In 2020, the top scorer was Gawn (140). He dropped to 121 the following year (Neale was the top mid at 134 - he dropped to 100).
In 2019, the top scorer was Grundy (130). He dropped to 121 the following year
In 2018, the top scorer was Tom Mitchell (130). He didn't play again in 2019 but averaged 113 in 2020.
On and on it goes. In short, I think he will revert to his 'regular' scores, making him 80-100K overpriced and available for cheaper later. Yes, he's still going to be a top 8 mid, is a captaincy option and doesn't miss games so isn't a bad pick but it seems funny to worry about value everywhere else and then willing overspend when you can probably get the same ave from one of the 600K options rather than a $725K option.
The problem is getting him into your team during the year. All stars need to align, eg rookies fatten up, Bonts dropped in price etc. You need him the finals.I've had Bontempelli locked in all preseason at M1 but as silly as it sounds, I still have my doubts.
As good as he has been, his average of 130 last season was a 'career year' and is an outlier. Before that he averaged 115/116 for 3 of the previous 4 years, with a previous best season of 120.
There are lots of other premium mids who consistently average 115/116 who are at least 80-100K cheaper (as Bont will soon be).
On top of that, no one since GAJ has ever backed up that level before.
In 2022, the top scorer for the season was Laird (128). He dropped to 117 in 2023.
In 2021, the top scorer was Macrae (129). He dropped to 115 the following year (and further last year).
In 2020, the top scorer was Gawn (140). He dropped to 121 the following year (Neale was the top mid at 134 - he dropped to 100).
In 2019, the top scorer was Grundy (130). He dropped to 121 the following year
In 2018, the top scorer was Tom Mitchell (130). He didn't play again in 2019 but averaged 113 in 2020.
On and on it goes. In short, I think he will revert to his 'regular' scores, making him 80-100K overpriced and available for cheaper later. Yes, he's still going to be a top 8 mid, is a captaincy option and doesn't miss games so isn't a bad pick but it seems funny to worry about value everywhere else and then willing overspend when you can probably get the same ave from one of the 600K options rather than a $725K option.
I definitely get what you mean but the same applies to any of the gun 600k+ mids. If he averages what he usually does (116), then his scoring and cost is no different to the other premo mids doing the same thing (aside from being pricier at the beginning but regressing to the mean).The problem is getting him into your team during the year. All stars need to align, eg rookies fatten up, Bonts dropped in price etc. You need him the finals.
My hate every weekend would be seeing my opponent with the VC or C on him.
I don’t like watching the footy from behind my couch. Lock and load and throw away your worries.
It's a very fair and valid point, I think there's a 90% chance he regresses from last yrs average, with the English improvement last yr and more time back in the middle in an almost brownlow yr it was prob max Bont. English is at his peak currently and Bont close to it, I would think somewhere between 120-125 is not unreasonable.I definitely get what you mean but the same applies to any of the gun 600k+ mids. If he averages what he usually does (116), then his scoring and cost is no different to the other premo mids doing the same thing (aside from being pricier at the beginning but regressing to the mean).
The narrative of his scoring and cost being on a different level/prohibitive is really only based on last year (with that being untrue for every other year of his career). He could produce that level again of course but history says it is unlikely.
It's a very fair and valid point, I think there's a 90% chance he regresses from last yrs average but with the English improvement last yr and more time back in the middle in an almost brownlow yr it was prob max Bont. English is at his peak currently and Bont close to it, I would think somewhere between 120-125 is not unreasonable.
So you pay an upfront premium but what you get for the price is a safe C option, no double bye, elite durability and a player who will highly likely be top 3 in their line. The final benefit by taking him is you don't have to death ride a player 50% owned or force him in at a premium price mid yr because you paid the premium upfront. You can pick off other value options to finish the midfield.
Everything I've heard is suggesting that he'll definitely play more wing this year. Seems like Serong and Young are options one and two, then Fyfe, Brayshaw and to a lesser extent O'Meara will split the bulk of the other minutes. Brayshaw was the fourth highest Freo mid for CBAs in the preseason game.Another player I'm keen to discuss is Andrew Brayshaw.
He's in his prime, had been improving every year up until his MVP in 2022, when he averaged 112. Last year, he still averaged 109. However, I recall his early season form being questioned and it was revealed he was struggling with a knee issue. He came out before the Hawthorn game in Round 8 and said he has had some work done on it and has now gotten it right. Up to that point, he was averaging 91. He came out and smashed 149 and went on to average 117 for the rest of the season (across 16 rounds).
With this, one less bye, good durability (missed 2 games in the last 5 years) and my expectation that Freo will improve a bit, I brought him into M3 with some confidence (despite seeing him in no other teams).
I, however, saw a recent post on here suggesting that with Young (and Fyfe) being afforded more mid time, he is being moved out to the wing and will be getting less CBA's? I don't know anything about the midfield dynamics at Freo but can anyone confirm? Cos I definitely am not interested in paying $600K for a guy stuck on the wing, as good as he is.
(I would have thought you'd move out someone like O'Meara instead - even if he can't play other positions as well)
Everything I've heard is suggesting that he'll definitely play more wing this year. Seems like Serong and Young are options one and two, then Fyfe, Brayshaw and to a lesser extent O'Meara will split the bulk of the other minutes. Brayshaw was the fourth highest Freo mid for CBAs in the preseason game.
So he'll definitely rotate in, but think his CBAs will drop. Agree that it's an odd decision as he's not overly quick or a very good ball user. Could be one of those things that's tried for a couple of weeks then abandoned.
Can you elaborate?Jack Carroll M1. Walsh is fekd
Another player I'm keen to discuss is Andrew Brayshaw.
He's in his prime, had been improving every year up until his MVP in 2022, when he averaged 112. Last year, he still averaged 109. However, I recall his early season form being questioned and it was revealed he was struggling with a knee issue. He came out before the Hawthorn game in Round 8 and said he has had some work done on it and has now gotten it right. Up to that point, he was averaging 91. He came out and smashed 149 and went on to average 117 for the rest of the season (across 16 rounds).
With this, one less bye, good durability (missed 2 games in the last 5 years) and my expectation that Freo will improve a bit, I brought him into M3 with some confidence (despite seeing him in no other teams).
I, however, saw a recent post on here suggesting that with Young (and Fyfe) being afforded more mid time, he is being moved out to the wing and will be getting less CBA's? I don't know anything about the midfield dynamics at Freo but can anyone confirm? Cos I definitely am not interested in paying $600K for a guy stuck on the wing, as good as he is.
(I would have thought you'd move out someone like O'Meara instead - even if he can't play other positions as well)
Can you elaborate?
Shush, Wayne.Doesn't the CARL injuries open up an opportunity for George H ?