List Mgmt. 2024 National Draft - November 20-21

[Jen2310]

 

[Granit1962]

Why would a club employee stick their neck out like that? If they get busted and then subsequently scapegoated for draft tampering …

… it’s not just job over, it’s also career in the AFL over and off to become an Uber driver.

And why complicate things?

At its core AFL is an entertainment industry. Where’s the entertainment for Richmond fans by their club conferring the highly coveted Number 1 pick on a Brisbane Lions player? Wouldn’t they be better off by giving their fans the joy of getting the number 1 pick, and making the Bradshaw thing North Melbourne’s problem?

And it’s not as if Richmond would consider Brisbane to be a serious rival in the quest to win the 2025 wooden spoon.

I hope you are right, the proof will be there when the first bid comes. I am a skeptic however.

 

[Apex36]

Ashcroft could be bid anywhere between 2-4, just a matter of who does it.

1-4. Richmond would be idiotic not to bid with pick 1.

 

[sr36]

I hope richmond and north are bold enough to bid on ashcroft and kako with their picks and force them to both burn through their draft picks.

Richmond have no incentive to. They probably would if it benefitted them. In 2020 we bid on 2 academy kids. I think it was to ensure a bid for Reef came later and was thus cheaper to match.

But a bid on these guys early, just means that Essendon or Brisbane's next pick will be later and other teams get the benefit of their pick jumping a couple of slots earlier. Why would Richmond hurt Essendon in order to benefit Collingwood, Geelong, etc...

 

[Mollythedolly]

Yeah. If there is one draft with late picks you could take a punt on with our last pick, this could be the one. Has a lot of upside.
Here is from his first APS game.
He had 24 disposals, 10 clearances, 2 goals

The uncertainty with Condon signing and when/if that’s likely clouds this a bit. Could potentially add him as a Cat B if he doesn’t have interest. Unlikely we’ll have a rookie spot if someone takes a chance on him though.

 

[greening22]

Maybe a fwd/mid then. But I think we have enough players to cover. We prob play too many smalls as it is.

I think that we need a big-bodied mid-fielder such as Jack Ough. However, I think that he will have been taken by the time of our picks become active. Then again maybe if this draft bats so deep in terms of quality we may find a couple of key forwards and/or key defenders plus the type of mid-fielder that I mentioned earlier. OK. Goodbye & good luck.

 

[celestial]

Richmond have no incentive to. They probably would if it benefitted them. In 2020 we bid on 2 academy kids. I think it was to ensure a bid for Reef came later and was thus cheaper to match.

But a bid on these guys early, just means that Essendon or Brisbane's next pick will be later and other teams get the benefit of their pick jumping a couple of slots earlier. Why would Richmond hurt Essendon in order to benefit Collingwood, Geelong, etc...

One can only hope that they do

 

[Jen2310]

The uncertainty with Condon signing and when/if that’s likely clouds this a bit. Could potentially add him as a Cat B if he doesn’t have interest. Unlikely we’ll have a rookie spot if someone takes a chance on him though.

I dont think he'll get a bid anywhere given his injury. Its a shame there are only 2 cat B spots clubs can have.
I wonder if we'd consider him with our last pick
Depends what we do with reef/Long, if one of them don't get a contract, we could look at Kerr in the rookie draft.

 

[sr36]

I dont think he'll get a bid anywhere given his injury. Its a shame there are only 2 cat B spots clubs can have.
I wonder if we'd consider him with our last pick
Depends what we do with reef/Long, if one of them don't get a contract, we could look at Kerr in the rookie draft.

He'll be NGA next year. Why not just wait until then?

 

[Apex36]

Richmond have no incentive to. They probably would if it benefitted them. In 2020 we bid on 2 academy kids. I think it was to ensure a bid for Reef came later and was thus cheaper to match.

But a bid on these guys early, just means that Essendon or Brisbane's next pick will be later and other teams get the benefit of their pick jumping a couple of slots earlier. Why would Richmond hurt Essendon in order to benefit Collingwood, Geelong, etc...

You’re really overthinking this. As if Richmond are going to care that Collingwood and Geelong’s late picks are going to jump up a few spots.

Any team not making Brisbane pay full whack for their FS and NGA boys this year have rocks in their heads, why would Richmond care about late picks moving up over letting Brisbane build a dynasty team for less than nothing?

 

[Jen2310]

He'll be NGA next year. Why not just wait until then?

Yup for sure, can do that too, as we'll have more list spots too. And we can monitor his recovery through the year

 

[sr36]

You’re really overthinking this. As if Richmond are going to care that Collingwood and Geelong’s late picks are going to jump up a few spots.

Any team not making Brisbane pay full whack for their FS and NGA boys this year have rocks in their heads, why would Richmond care about late picks moving up over letting Brisbane build a dynasty team for less than nothing?

You're under thinking it.

Unless it pushes the club into deficit, there's zero potential benefit for Richmond. All it will actually do from Richmond's perspective is shift some draftees from one club to another - on the night that Richmond don't need to show up.

It won't alter how many good players get taken later in the draft. It'll just mean they're a bit less likely to land at Essendon and a bit more likely to land at one of Richmond's 16 other competitors. If it hurts Essendon by them missing out on a player who ends up good. It'll benefit someone else other than Richmond. It's a zero sum game for the Tigers.

 

[Hardas]

Isn't Dekka just going 'best available' like he has almost always done?

 

[Jen2310]

Isn't Dekka just going 'best available' like he has almost always done?

who knows
We're hoping against hope leppa will be more authorative given he said we would be focusing on talls.
best available you tend to do in the first couple rounds, but reckon in the later part of the draft you can do needs.

 

[celestial]

Isn't Dekka just going 'best available' like he has almost always done?

Ideally yes, but given where this list is and where we are picking, 2/3 picks will probably be dictated by needs rather than bpa.

 

[celestial]

I can understand Richmond having nothing to gain (draft picks wise) from bidding at no 1 , but north at 2 have pick 62. That can come in a bit if they bid early on ashcroft and kako.

 

[HoraceStrasbork]

Reminds me of a quote of George Best: "I spent a lot of money on booze, birds, and fast cars. The rest I just squandered."

 

[celestial]

You're under thinking it.

Unless it pushes the club into deficit, there's zero potential benefit for Richmond. All it will actually do from Richmond's perspective is shift some draftees from one club to another - on the night that Richmond don't need to show up.

It won't alter how many good players get taken later in the draft. It'll just mean they're a bit less likely to land at Essendon and a bit more likely to land at one of Richmond's 16 other competitors. If it hurts Essendon by them missing out on a player who ends up good. It'll benefit someone else other than Richmond. It's a zero sum game for the Tigers.

I wonder if richmond will bid on Ashcroft so that their first pick wont have the burden of the no 1 pick. Or ultimately they may just choose to give their pick the honour of being the first pick in the draft.

 

[sr36]

I wonder if richmond will bid on Ashcroft so that their first pick wont have the burden of the no 1 pick. Or ultimately they may just choose to give their pick the honour of being the first pick in the draft.

Who knows? Some clubs will just bid honestly and others will do it when there's a flow on benefit for them. Wanting or not wanting a player to go 1 is one some clubs might consider. Marketing dept will want them to not bid.

In Tigers position though there's no other benefit for them any disadvantage to the clubs they bid on will become an advantage for other competitors.

 

[Apex36]

You're under thinking it.

Unless it pushes the club into deficit, there's zero potential benefit for Richmond. All it will actually do from Richmond's perspective is shift some draftees from one club to another - on the night that Richmond don't need to show up.

It won't alter how many good players get taken later in the draft. It'll just mean they're a bit less likely to land at Essendon and a bit more likely to land at one of Richmond's 16 other competitors. If it hurts Essendon by them missing out on a player who ends up good. It'll benefit someone else other than Richmond. It's a zero sum game for the Tigers.

You’re overthinking it. We’re talking about players in the 40’s and 50’s. They won’t give a shit about that.

 

[RobJD]

the more i think about it, the more I feel we will resist the urge to trade up . Think we will choose to use 2/3 picks to address our lack of depth at kpd and small fwd .

Agree,

Think we will take all 3 picks on a KPD KPF and Mid

Agree, and with Geelong likely book casing our first two picks and looking to take a KPP, I'd go KPP, KPP and then the best of the small/med types, unless we like a Falcon, e.g., Ivisic, in which case we may switch and go KPP, Falcons player, KPP

 

[sr36]

You’re overthinking it. We’re talking about players in the 40’s and 50’s. They won’t give a shit about that.

Exactly. That's why there's no advantage for tigers in bidding early on Kako or Ashcroft. They don't care if Essendon have to use an extra one or two picks in the 40s to match.

Just means Essendons next pick is later and other clubs move up a touch.

The nature of matching is that no net value is removed from the draft when a team matches. Same players are available and what is spent in matching gets redistributed to other teams by their picks moving up.

 

[Matt_352]

Agree,

Agree, and with Geelong likely book casing our first two picks and looking to take a KPP, I'd go KPP, KPP and then the best of the small/med types, unless we like a Falcon, e.g., Ivisic, in which case we may switch and go KPP, Falcons player, KPP

Yeah I'd say who of the talls are left at our first pick will determine if we go kpd or kpf first then Geelong pick then we do the other key position and 3rd pick best available likely a mid

 

[Apex36]

Exactly. That's why there's no advantage for tigers in bidding early on Kako or Ashcroft. They don't care if Essendon have to use an extra one or two picks in the 40s to match.

Just means Essendons next pick is later and other clubs move up a touch.

The nature of matching is that no net value is removed from the draft when a team matches. Same players are available and what is spent in matching gets redistributed to other teams by their picks moving up.

Why do you assume that they’re going to do it to gain some sort of strategic advantage? How about they’ll make a bid where he’s actually worth being bid on? Adelaide had no hesitation in bidding on JUH at number 1 because that’s where they rated him. If the Tigers rate Ashcroft at number 1 then that’s where they should be bidding too, unless they’re stupid. As it stands the Lions don’t have enough points to match bids if Ashcroft goes number 1 and Marshall gets an early (10ish) bid and they’ll have to trade in future picks or go in to deficit. If you’re after strategic reasons that’s as good as any.

 

[JuniorB]

Why do you assume that they’re going to do it to gain some sort of strategic advantage? How about they’ll make a bid where he’s actually worth being bid on? Adelaide had no hesitation in bidding on JUH at number 1 because that’s where they rated him. If the Tigers rate Ashcroft at number 1 then that’s where they should be bidding too, unless they’re stupid. As it stands the Lions don’t have enough points to match bids if Ashcroft goes number 1 and Marshall gets an early (10ish) bid and they’ll have to trade in future picks or go in to deficit. If you’re after strategic reasons that’s as good as any.

The bottom line is that you want the reigning premier to pay the maximum price for arguably the best player in the draft.

 

[sr36]

Why do you assume that they’re going to do it to gain some sort of strategic advantage? How about they’ll make a bid where he’s actually worth being bid on? Adelaide had no hesitation in bidding on JUH at number 1 because that’s where they rated him. If the Tigers rate Ashcroft at number 1 then that’s where they should be bidding too, unless they’re stupid. As it stands the Lions don’t have enough points to match bids if Ashcroft goes number 1 and Marshall gets an early (10ish) bid and they’ll have to trade in future picks or go in to deficit. If you’re after strategic reasons that’s as good as any.

I agree. There's a fair chance they'll make some bids. I'm assuming some club's philosophy is to bid when he's top of their list.

You brought strategy into it by suggesting that they'd be stupid to not bid.

But there's no strategic advantage in it for Richmond. It won't be a matter of stupidity if they don't bid. It'll just be them not having the philosophy that you want them to have on this occasion.