Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

[JGreezy]

The physical testing is interesting, and all, but in game application is more important.

A guy can be 0.5s quicker, but if another player reads the place to run to 0.5s faster then does it matter?

A player can be agile but lack spatial awareness.

A player can jump 10cm higher but if they can't time their jump to mark at the peak then does it really matter?

The cardio testing is a little more interesting, but it's easy to manage and pace your output on those tests. Some great runners struggle to pace their output and/or adrenaline in-game and get tired quicker.

 

[Sphynx]

The physical testing is interesting, and all, but in game application is more important.

A guy can be 0.5s quicker, but if another player reads the place to run to 0.5s faster then does it matter?

A player can be agile but lack spatial awareness.

A player can jump 10cm higher but if they can't time their jump to mark at the peak then does it really matter?

The cardio testing is a little more interesting, but it's easy to manage and pace your output on those tests. Some great runners struggle to pace their output and/or adrenaline in-game and get tired quicker.

As we discussed probably a few dozen pages ago, I call it the "The Colby McKercher theory"

Needs a balance of opinion. The testing data is really important as the main basis of opinion, but you then need to verify it's reading with the eye imo. Some players might simply never be in a position in scouted game situation to actually show their pace, or their vertical or their agility.

Or the nature of a game is so contested vs an open one that you aren't able to determine the endurance capabilities of players 1 game to the next.

I put most weight in the testing data, then try and confirm it's validity. Especially around speed, agility and vertical. Endurance is fine imo. Although intensity and determination come into players in game situation vs a running track (i.e George Wardlaw who would will himself in transition in game vs the Yo-Yo test)

In McKercher's case the data failed at the eye test validation. It's probably the biggest discrepancy I can remember

Phillips may be an example where the data has failed in the eye test at AFL level, but in the opposite direction.

He has very quick 20m, bordering rapid sprint times and above average endurance. The glandular may have killed his endurance, but I've only seen flashes of that speed compared to at times how he used it at u18 level.

It may have also been a dodgy testing year, which can happen. The testing equipment is brought in, setup and calibrated. It's not exactly done in a contained AIS lab.

 

[Horse35]

Would love an experts view on this one, but does this year seem to be growing towards one of the best years we’ve had recently for KPF’s ?…there seems to be a few that can really play:

Shanahan, Whitlock, Faull, Sims etc etc

Would love to see us be bold and trade out pick 1 and load up on a couple…coming out of the draft with Kako, Shanahan, Sims & River…wow !!!

 

[JGreezy]

As we discussed probably a few dozen pages ago, I call it the "The Colby McKercher theory"

Needs a balance of opinion. The data is really important as the main basis of opinion, but you then need to verify it's reading with the eye imo.

I put most weight in the testing data, then try and confirm it's validity.

In McKercher's case the data failed at the eye test validation.

Phillips may be an example where the data has failed in the eye test at AFL level, but in the opposite direction.

I didn't realise this was already discussed.

Some guys can run really fast when that's all that they are thinking about and they can just explode. But they can't when there's a ball and other players on their mind.

I think McKercher can run at max speed and bounce a ball and think about where to kick, all at the same time, which is rare.

Edit... and as much mental as physical

 

[Sphynx]

I didn't realise this was already discussed.

Some guys can run really fast when that's all that they are thinking about and they can just explode. But they can't when there's a ball and other players on their mind.

I think McKercher can run at max speed and bounce a ball and think about where to kick, all at the same time, which is rare.

My theory with him some pages back was that he is slow from a standing start and his top speed is a few levels above pretty much any footballer around.

If you watch his jaw dropping highlights, they are generally on the move, or he's pushed off someone and has momentum, or he gets a handball receive on the run and cranks it up.

I don't think he hits top speed for 10-20m and that top speed is unlikely to correlate to a 20m test from a flat footed standing start as he hasn't even hit top speed by the 20m mark.

I reckon he'd be the quickest player in the AFL between 20-40m though, particularly with a ball, bouncing, as you said.

Most players get reeled in when taking multiple bounces, he puts meters on even quick players (Weddle as an example in the Hawthorn game).

 

[Sphynx]

Would love an experts view on this one, but does this year seem to be growing towards one of the best years we’ve had recently for KPF’s ?…there seems to be a few that can really play:

Shanahan, Whitlock, Faull, Sims etc etc

Would love to see us be bold and trade out pick 1 and load up on a couple…coming out of the draft with Kako, Shanahan, Sims & River…wow !!!

I personally like Sims with a mid pick, which could be our R2 after all the bidding, but I suspect he may even bolt into the top 20 on draft night. There's a lot of qualities for clubs to build a quality KPF around.

He's 200cm and launches at the footy at it's highest point. He pinch hits in the ruck.

He's a really nice prospect.

Faull lasting to our R2 would be unlikely imo.



I probably rate Sims higher than W.Dawson and McCabe, despite being those to being defenders (as a comparison)

 

[chubbspeterson]

I personally like Sims with a mid pick, which could be our R2 after all the bidding, but I suspect he may even bolt into the top 20 on draft night. There's a lot of qualities for clubs to build a quality KPF around.

He's 200cm and launches at the footy at it's highest point. He pinch hits in the ruck.

He's a really nice prospect.

Faull lasting to our R2 would be unlikely imo.



I probably rate Sims higher than W.Dawson and McCabe, despite being those to being defenders (as a comparison)

Sims or Gerryn definitely fit the Teakle role more with their ability to ruck.

 

[ohmygewd]

Would love an experts view on this one, but does this year seem to be growing towards one of the best years we’ve had recently for KPF’s ?…there seems to be a few that can really play:

Shanahan, Whitlock, Faull, Sims etc etc

Would love to see us be bold and trade out pick 1 and load up on a couple…coming out of the draft with Kako, Shanahan, Sims & River…wow !!!

Last years draft had a lot of quality KPD with a sprinkle of quality KPF (if you count Caddy as a KPF). This years seems to be unearthing quite a few KPF but how many will be 1st rounders is still up in the air depending on how teams require a KPF or lured into abundance of midfielders of all shapes and sizes in this draft.

As we discussed probably a few dozen pages ago, I call it the "The Colby McKercher theory"

Needs a balance of opinion. The testing data is really important as the main basis of opinion, but you then need to verify it's reading with the eye imo. Some players might simply never be in a position in scouted game situation to actually show their pace, or their vertical or their agility.

Or the nature of a game is so contested vs an open one that you aren't able to determine the endurance capabilities of players 1 game to the next.

I put most weight in the testing data, then try and confirm it's validity. Especially around speed, agility and vertical. Endurance is fine imo. Although intensity and determination come into players in game situation vs a running track (i.e George Wardlaw who would will himself in transition in game vs the Yo-Yo test)

In McKercher's case the data failed at the eye test validation. It's probably the biggest discrepancy I can remember

Phillips may be an example where the data has failed in the eye test at AFL level, but in the opposite direction.

He has very quick 20m, bordering rapid sprint times and above average endurance. The glandular may have killed his endurance, but I've only seen flashes of that speed compared to at times how he used it at u18 level.

It may have also been a dodgy testing year, which can happen. The testing equipment is brought in, setup and calibrated. It's not exactly done in a contained AIS lab.

Funny, l'm very data driven a person but when it comes to sporting talents, I have to compare the eye and not rely solely on the data - unless l had access to Champion Data style stats.

Analytics has it place but only by scouting players can one measure their footy IQ, determination etc etc , all those human tangibles that data can't measure...well yet.

On that note...gezz if we finished 17th or 16th, Toby would be such a great pick - just that poise, ability to read the play and organisational leadership are traits that we are missing from a defensive and team aspect.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

How does he compare to Watson in terms of pressure and tackling?

On par if not better, he does a lot of defensive running and isn’t afraid to put his body on the line. When it comes to his pressure though, he is a bit like Cody Weightman, in that he doesn’t quite have that top speed that creates that perceived pressure like Kozzie or Cameron.

And we thought last years build up to the draft was an emotional shit storm.
The he read on trainor makes it even more difficult.
What I don’t get is, they say he can nullify forwards, but hasn’t shut any down?
Likes to rebound?
A taller McDonald with family roots?
NEXT!

He played on Tyler Welsh on the weekend and kept him to 8 disposals, 3 marks and 1 goal. He definitely does have lock down capacity, he is just better suited to playing more loose and using his foot skills across half back.

 

[Sphynx]

Last years draft had a lot of quality KPD with a sprinkle of quality KPF (if you count Caddy as a KPF). This years seems to be unearthing quite a few KPF but how many will be 1st rounders is still up in the air depending on how teams require a KPF or lured into abundance of midfielders of all shapes and sizes in this draft.

Funny, l'm very data driven a person but when it comes to sporting talents, I have to compare the eye and not rely solely on the data - unless l had access to Champion Data style stats.

Analytics has it place but only by scouting players can one measure their footy IQ, determination etc etc , all those human tangibles that data can't measure...well yet.

On that note...gezz if we finished 17th or 16th, Toby would be such a great pick - just that poise, ability to read the play and organisational leadership are traits that we are missing from a defensive and team aspect.

I was purely talking about athletic testing btw

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Would love an experts view on this one, but does this year seem to be growing towards one of the best years we’ve had recently for KPF’s ?…there seems to be a few that can really play:

Shanahan, Whitlock, Faull, Sims etc etc

Would love to see us be bold and trade out pick 1 and load up on a couple…coming out of the draft with Kako, Shanahan, Sims & River…wow !!!

There are more genuine key forwards over that 194-195cm mark than any of the recent drafts. However, it probably lacks that one or two obvious superstar key forwards that are genuine top 5-10 picks. Last year was okay for key forwards but a couple of them (Caddy & Morris) weren’t really genuine KP height. 2021 was good at the top end but then dropped away for KF depth. 2020 was solid at the top end, but again didn’t have that much depth. It would make a lot of sense if we picked one key forward in the ND then another as a rookie from the below list.

2024 draft class: J.Whitlock, M.Whitlock, Shanahan, Faull, Sims, Gerreyn, Rohr, Armstrong, Nicholls, Howes, West, McInnes, Barrat, Stumpf & Rozenweig.

2023: Walter, Caddy, Croft, A. Reid, Morris, Fawcett & Maley.

2022: Cadman, Jefferson, Gruzewski, Keeler, Lemmy & Foster

2021: Darcy, Amiss, Van Rooyen & Jack Williams.

2020: Ugle-Hagan, Thilthorpe, Mcdonald, Neale, Eyre, Lord, Treacy

 

[JGreezy]

There are more genuine key forwards over that 194-195cm mark than any of the recent drafts. However, it probably lacks that one or two obvious superstar key forwards that are genuine top 5-10 picks. Last year was okay for key forwards but a couple of them (Caddy & Morris) weren’t really genuine KP height. 2021 was good at the top end but then dropped away for KF depth. 2020 was solid at the top end, but again didn’t have that much depth. It would make a lot of sense if we picked one key forward in the ND then another as a rookie from the below list.

2024 draft class: J.Whitlock, M.Whitlock, Shanahan, Faull, Sims, Gerreyn, Rohr, Armstrong, Nicholls, Howes, West, McInnes, Barrat, Stumpf & Rozenweig.

2023: Walter, Caddy, Croft, A. Reid, Morris, Fawcett & Maley.

2022: Cadman, Jefferson, Gruzewski, Keeler, Lemmy & Foster

2021: Darcy, Amiss, Van Rooyen & Jack Williams.

2020: Ugle-Hagan, Thilthorpe, Mcdonald, Neale, Eyre, Lord, Treacy

That seems perfect. Grab two developing guys without using a high pick and hopefully between them, Maley, Sellers (and maybe if someone like Dawson switches) we can get an AFL quality KPF in a few years

 

[R00StaR]

There are more genuine key forwards over that 194-195cm mark than any of the recent drafts. However, it probably lacks that one or two obvious superstar key forwards that are genuine top 5-10 picks. Last year was okay for key forwards but a couple of them (Caddy & Morris) weren’t really genuine KP height. 2021 was good at the top end but then dropped away for KF depth. 2020 was solid at the top end, but again didn’t have that much depth. It would make a lot of sense if we picked one key forward in the ND then another as a rookie from the below list.

2024 draft class: J.Whitlock, M.Whitlock, Shanahan, Faull, Sims, Gerreyn, Rohr, Armstrong, Nicholls, Howes, West, McInnes, Barrat, Stumpf & Rozenweig.

2023: Walter, Caddy, Croft, A. Reid, Morris, Fawcett & Maley.

2022: Cadman, Jefferson, Gruzewski, Keeler, Lemmy & Foster

2021: Darcy, Amiss, Van Rooyen & Jack Williams.

2020: Ugle-Hagan, Thilthorpe, Mcdonald, Neale, Eyre, Lord, Treacy

I really am wondering the value of key forwards. Dont get me wrong, really good one cause all sort of havoc, but they are few and far between.

OF the top 8 currently id say only Carlton, Geelong and Brisbane have quality KPF. Then Sydney who are two games clear have virtual none. They just create a contest and chip in now and again. Besides you can spend an awful lot of draft capital chasing the unicorn key forward who is A grade at AFL level.

Even the small speedy forwards are hard to find and are often inconsistent though out a season.

If we have defense, and transition play well sorted then we're 3/4s of the way there. Id be focusing on that and looking looking at FA for those lotto pick players. At least you know what your getting then. Thats not to say dont take them with second rounders, just the first rounders i think we're better served with more certainty that the mid/ flankers offer.

Also Bulldogs probably have the most envious list of tall forwards of any AFL team, yet if it wasn't for Bont we'd have been a huge chance of winning that.

 

[shinboner magic]

Get me the next contested marking behemoth

 

[Sillygit]

No one loved the Wiz more than me, he's up there with him.

He's having the same impact and has a similar ceiling at AFL level.

I need to see some athletic testing for Kako.

Jesus, does he kick better than the wiz?

 

[ohmygewd]

Get me the next contested marking behemoth

 

[New_Roo]

I really am wondering the value of key forwards. Dont get me wrong, really good one cause all sort of havoc, but they are few and far between.

OF the top 8 currently id say only Carlton, Geelong and Brisbane have quality KPF. Then Sydney who are two games clear have virtual none. They just create a contest and chip in now and again. Besides you can spend an awful lot of draft capital chasing the unicorn key forward who is A grade at AFL level.

Even the small speedy forwards are hard to find and are often inconsistent though out a season.

If we have defense, and transition play well sorted then we're 3/4s of the way there. Id be focusing on that and looking looking at FA for those lotto pick players. At least you know what your getting then. Thats not to say dont take them with second rounders, just the first rounders i think we're better served with more certainty that the mid/ flankers offer.

Also Bulldogs probably have the most envious list of tall forwards of any AFL team, yet if it wasn't for Bont we'd have been a huge chance of winning that.

I wouldn't say Syd have none with LMac and Amart up there!


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[ferball]

I wouldn't say Syd have none with LMac and Amart up there!


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Their Lmac isn't much of a key forward. Amarty and the other guy make their forward line work.

 

[chubbspeterson]

View attachment 2037741

Who's no. 40? Didn't think I saw a no. 40 in the VC squad.

 

[New_Roo]

Their Lmac isn't much of a key forward. Amarty and the other guy make their forward line work.

Still height and consuming opposition taller defenders

And Grundy and or McLean rest down there

Freo in 3rd have Treacy Amiss and Jackson all 195+

Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[chubbspeterson]

What would the deal look like for sliding from pick 2/3 to 5? Mid/late 1st or 2nd rounder?
I remember Bombers gave up pick 31 to move up a spot from 11 to 10 last year and we traded pick 1 for 3 and 12 before and WCE pick 2 for 8 and 12. Crows traded 10 (11), 14 (15) and F2 (25 now) for GWS 8 and 17 in the Curtin trade.
I guess we'll have to wait for the new points system as well.

 

[R00StaR]

I wouldn't say Syd have none with LMac and Amart up there!


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You could replace them with any AFL forwards and they'd still win, because they dont rely on key forwards.

 

[R00StaR]

Still height and consuming opposition taller defenders

And Grundy and or McLean rest down there

Freo in 3rd have Treacy Amiss and Jackson all 195+

Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Yeah, tall dudes to bring ball to ground who can move enough to apply defensive pressure.

 

[ferball]

Still height and consuming opposition taller defenders

And Grundy and or McLean rest down there

Freo in 3rd have Treacy Amiss and Jackson all 195+

Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Collingwood, Melbourne and Richmond's first flag all came with one or no real high quality KPFs. Geelong and WC had Kennedy and Hawkins/Cameron. There's no hard and fast rule.

If you have an effective midfield and some good quality forwards of any height then what matters is structure and transition I reckon. But even then there's other things that are important too.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Looks like Finn O’Sullivan should be lining up in the last two Vic Country games! Exciting!