Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

[My Left Foote]

Desperately want us to figure out a way to get Luke Trainor home to North.

Well we could take with our first pick but it sounds like you're asking Brady to orchestrate another… Mega Trade

 

[noobermensch]

A lowish possession count not withstanding, Lindsay was close to BOG in this game. He was competitive, clever and slick at stoppage, winning more clearances than any other player and regularly initiating forward breakaways or applying tackling pressure if needed. When he found the ball in space his usage by foot was creative and precise.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Gerreyn answered a couple of questions people had been asking in a confident display by the big man. He launched at contested marks all game and managed to clunk a couple of strong ones, and he dominated in his backup ruck stints against Country's secondary rucks. Overall, he continued to show the combination of size and skills that has draft watchers intrigued.

Lovely work as always noobermensch.

Really liked his game on the weekend, couple of really neat inside 50’s and some stronger overhead marking (which we hadn’t seen much of prior to this game).

I just love his ability to find the ball and stay involved, that’s one of the hardest thing for talls in juniors but Gerreyn can push up the ground and plays as an old school CHF or he can push into the ruck and have an impact. With his frame and athleticism I seriously think he as the potential to be a top 5 player in this draft. Incredible amount of upside.

At a bare minimum you are going to get a more athletic Dan McStay type while the ceiling is someone like Charlie Dixon.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Great work.

Great work. Geez there’s some great prospects that will be around at our 2nd pick. Tempting to split our first if could end up with a Trainor/Trevaglia and Lalor combo. Something special about Bo Allen too IMO.
I noticed you’ve missed Harrison Oliver, he seems popular with the draft watchers.

I have plenty of favourites in this draft, but Travaglia, Kako and Lalor would all probably be top 5. Allen has plenty of potential too, can’t go with with a big bodied competitive beast like him.

Have Harry Oliver @45 in the most recent rankings mate

 

[R00StaR]

You only trade back from a top 2 pick in two circumstances;

1 - You are getting big overs because some other team is in love with a top 2 player and is willing to pay a premium to get them

2 - you identify a specific player who is high on your board, but undervalued on others, so you can draft them and get a bit of extra cream by moving back.

E.g. if you have Lalor as a top tier prospect on your board but he's going to slide to 8 then move back to 8 and you essentially get extra picks for free because you're still getting a top tier guy.

So we only do that trade with GC if we're getting 8 + 9 + F1 or Lukosis or someone (maybe - our F2). Or, if we have a top tier guy who will be there at that pick 8 (Lalor? Kako?).

Im almost tempted to find out if the same posters ever single year who suggest splitting our first. Believing 2 shiny new things are better than 1 in teams where only 22 can play.

Fortunately i dont have the time nor inclination to find out the answer, but if i had to bet i lean towards yes most of the same people.

 

[R00StaR]

If the Bont wins the Brownlow I think the ill-informed media will jump on Josh Smillie as the number one pick, regardless of whether he's a genuine number one or not, they'll be fapping about the "Next Bont" coming through.

Could potentially work to our advantage if we still hold pick one and are looking to split it.

Im more than happy to take Smillie or FoS.

LDU has yet to sign, then Powell and Phillips haven't locked midfield spots yet and can work in a wider rotation anyway.
Powell could easily play HB if cant lock it up. Phillips can play a small pressure forward if it came to it also who'd create us a few goals per game easily. Simpkin 27 next year with huge concussion issues should be spending less time in the middle and McKercher should be ear marked for a wing.

IF we got FOS throw him on the other wing eventually if not day 1. If Smillie he'd still work well in our rotations.

I dont see how anyone could suggest we're in a position to pass over the best available because of positioning.

 

[Harris 10]

Gerreyn answered a couple of questions people had been asking in a confident display by the big man. He launched at contested marks all game and managed to clunk a couple of strong ones, and he dominated in his backup ruck stints against Country's secondary rucks. Overall, he continued to show the combination of size and skills that has draft watchers intrigued.

What draft range are we looking at?

He's spread from a ruck contest on a few occasions in that clip was very impressive.

 

[lockheed]

Roos_fanatic08's last analysis had him at 33

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Im more than happy to take Smillie or FoS.

LDU has yet to sign, then Powell and Phillips haven't locked midfield spots yet and can work in a wider rotation anyway.
Powell could easily play HB if cant lock it up. Phillips can play a small pressure forward if it came to it also who'd create us a few goals per game easily. Simpkin 27 next year with huge concussion issues should be spending less time in the middle and McKercher should be ear marked for a wing.

IF we got FOS throw him on the other wing eventually if not day 1. If Smillie he'd still work well in our rotations.

I dont see how anyone could suggest we're in a position to pass over the best available because of positioning.

The difference between this year and the previous 4-5 drafts though is that the top end isn’t in a class of its own. The top 3/4 prospects aren’t all that far away from 5-10 and then from 11-25. The evenness of this draft is what makes splitting the pick very appealing.

I’ve said this a few times but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the best player drafted in this class ends up coming from that 10-25 such is that evenness.

 

[shinboner magic]

Gerreyn answered a couple of questions people had been asking in a confident display by the big man. He launched at contested marks all game and managed to clunk a couple of strong ones, and he dominated in his backup ruck stints against Country's secondary rucks. Overall, he continued to show the combination of size and skills that has draft watchers intrigued.

Get this kid - ball control and field kicking is akin to Taylor Walker

 

[R00StaR]

The difference between this year and the previous 4-5 drafts though is that the top end isn’t in a class of its own. The top 3/4 prospects aren’t all that far away from 5-10 and then from 11-25. The evenness of this draft is what makes splitting the pick very appealing.

I’ve said this a few times but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the best player drafted in this class ends up coming from that 10-25 such is that evenness.

Even if thats true, splitting the pick doesn't help much, thats 15 players in that batch. Thats a 1 in 7.5 chance of picking the right one even if you're prediction was 100% on the money which i think at best a 50/50 chance of happening over the top 3.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Even if thats true, splitting the pick doesn't help much, thats 15 players in that batch. Thats a 1 in 7.5 chance of picking the right one even if you're prediction was 100% on the money which i think at best a 50/50 chance of happening over the top 3.

The thing is though, you could make case that many of the top 10-12 players could be taken in the top 3-5. There has been plenty of busts in the top 3 over the years as well.

 

[R00StaR]

The thing is though, you could make case that many of the top 10-12 players could be taken in the top 3-5. There has been plenty of busts in the top 3 over the years as well.

Yep im well aware its the same argument the split it crowd use every single year.

IF...big if, it were true no club would ever trade up to make splitting the pick worth while and finishing 9th would be celebrated.
Who says YAY 9th we're just as good a chance to land an A grade player as any club?

 

[noobermensch]

What draft range are we looking at?

He's spread from a ruck contest on a few occasions in that clip was very impressive.

Its impossible to give an accurate range for Gerreyn I think. He's a classic potential vs production guy. He's had some solid performances in the WAFL Colts but that's a pretty weak comp. He had two solid and two poor games at the Champs.

I could see a team falling in love with his attributes and going as early as pick 10ish, or he could slide right back to the later rounds. My best guess is that Freo picks him with one of their three late first rounders, unless they package them to move up.

I'm expecting that Gerreyn will get some games in the WAFL seniors now that champs are done, and those performances will determine his draft stock.

 

[JGreezy]

The difference between this year and the previous 4-5 drafts though is that the top end isn’t in a class of its own. The top 3/4 prospects aren’t all that far away from 5-10 and then from 11-25. The evenness of this draft is what makes splitting the pick very appealing.

I’ve said this a few times but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the best player drafted in this class ends up coming from that 10-25 such is that evenness.

That spread of talent does lend itself to more variable evaluation. A team could draft a top 5 guy on their board with pick 12.

But, even still, you don't split it unless you have specific guys in mind and you don't do it unless you are getting overs.

There is an inherent value in having your choice of the best guy in the draft.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Yep im well aware its the same argument the split it crowd use every single year.

IF...big if, it were true no club would ever trade up to make splitting the pick worth while and finishing 9th would be celebrated.
Who says YAY 9th we're just as good a chance to land an A grade player as any club?

That’s a fair assessment mate, but in my opinion it’s a different scenario this year. Last year you had an obvious top 5/6 that were serious class above the rest, same in 2022,21 and 20. I wouldn’t have traded down in any of those previous drafts.

Despite that, WC still traded down and we’re happy to get Ginbey and additional draft picks.

Clubs like GC would absolutely love the chance to trade up to get ahead of their bids on academy players, so would the lions.

 

[chubbspeterson]

You only trade back from a top 2 pick in two circumstances;

1 - You are getting big overs because some other team is in love with a top 2 player and is willing to pay a premium to get them

2 - you identify a specific player who is high on your board, but undervalued on others, so you can draft them and get a bit of extra cream by moving back.

E.g. if you have Lalor as a top tier prospect on your board but he's going to slide to 8 then move back to 8 and you essentially get extra picks for free because you're still getting a top tier guy.

So we only do that trade with GC if we're getting 8 + 9 + F1 or Lukosis or someone (maybe - our F2). Or, if we have a top tier guy who will be there at that pick 8 (Lalor? Kako?).

I think it'll become clearer after ladder/finals finishing position of GC and Dogs as to what those picks are and after trade and FA is done. It could be as low as pick 6 if GZ fizzles and 11-16 depending on Dogs finals finish.
If Saints have 4 and 5 (Battle) then I'd guess the 5th pick would be Trainor after they take a midfielder first.
Crows I think would be locked in on Draper if I had to guess at 5(6).
WCE I have no idea what they'll do, do they try to slide back and take Bo Allen depending where he's ranked?
What does GC do at pick 2 or 3 if we traded it? That will have a domino effect on the draft order.

 

[chubbspeterson]

Im more than happy to take Smillie or FoS.

LDU has yet to sign, then Powell and Phillips haven't locked midfield spots yet and can work in a wider rotation anyway.
Powell could easily play HB if cant lock it up. Phillips can play a small pressure forward if it came to it also who'd create us a few goals per game easily. Simpkin 27 next year with huge concussion issues should be spending less time in the middle and McKercher should be ear marked for a wing.

IF we got FOS throw him on the other wing eventually if not day 1. If Smillie he'd still work well in our rotations.

I dont see how anyone could suggest we're in a position to pass over the best available because of positioning.

To me that slide down decision becomes easier if we have pick 3 and FOS and Smillie are gone.
If it's pick 2 then I think we just take the best available out of FOS/Smillie/Smith/Trainor in the recruiters minds.

 

[JGreezy]

Good point, there's a lot to play out, yet

 

[My Left Foote]

Im more than happy to take Smillie or FoS.

LDU has yet to sign, then Powell and Phillips haven't locked midfield spots yet and can work in a wider rotation anyway.
Powell could easily play HB if cant lock it up. Phillips can play a small pressure forward if it came to it also who'd create us a few goals per game easily. Simpkin 27 next year with huge concussion issues should be spending less time in the middle and McKercher should be ear marked for a wing.

IF we got FOS throw him on the other wing eventually if not day 1. If Smillie he'd still work well in our rotations.

I dont see how anyone could suggest we're in a position to pass over the best available because of positioning.

I'd be more than happy with either FOS or Smillie too.

I certainly wasn't advocating we split pick one by any stretch, merely speculating how things could play out in the media given how much they like comparing draftees to current players. Any player with a half decent "don't argue" is "the next Dusty".

 

[LB2Snake]

I have plenty of favourites in this draft, but Travaglia, Kako and Lalor would all probably be top 5. Allen has plenty of potential too, can’t go with with a big bodied competitive beast like him.

Have Harry Oliver @45 in the most recent rankings mate

Ah sorry man, missed the Harry O one. Kid can play a bit too.
Yeah I luv those 3 you’ve mentioned, but we desperately need a big KPF. Gerryn looks great. As does Sims. Hopefully Brady can make sh!t happen this year again.

 

[hoffseason gains 01]

I have plenty of favourites in this draft, but Travaglia, Kako and Lalor would all probably be top 5. Allen has plenty of potential too, can’t go with with a big bodied competitive beast like him.

Have Harry Oliver @45 in the most recent rankings mate

They’re my favourites too. Travaglia and Kako just so elite in their positions.

 

[noobermensch]

Davis has been a consistent performer for WA across their four champs games and signed off with probably his best, booting three goals in a valiant effort against Vic Country. He was increasingly dangerous as the contest wore on, showcasing his versatile skill set and athletic profile, able to impact in the air and on the ground.

 

[chubbspeterson]

Davis has been a consistent performer for WA across their four champs games and signed off with probably his best, booting three goals in a valiant effort against Vic Country. He was increasingly dangerous as the contest wore on, showcasing his versatile skill set and athletic profile, able to impact in the air and on the ground.

I really like this guy. Him and Hayes have something about them. Just look like good footballers.
Where to you think Davis' draft range is?

 

[chubbspeterson]

Good point, there's a lot to play out, yet

Yeah I didn't even think about Bailey Smith, Baker, D Rioli and Logan Mc trade rumours.
It could change a lot of things if Tigers blow things up or Freo gets aggressive.