Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

[Lomas]

I just realised. Edited. Thank you

No stress, I deleted my reply.

 

[Lomas]

Sorry for intruding but if North are considering a trade down with richmond, i wonder if a trade with Adelaide first could work. Where we obtain a F2 and then trade 4 + f2 for 2 (keeping north inside the recognised top 4 players in this draft) which would offer north an extra pick and then they look to trade 4 with richmond for 6 + 18 so you get 6 + 18 + f2 for 2 in the wash.

Personally if i was North i'd hold 2 and grab one of FOS, Lalor, Draper or Smith and keep boosting the midfield.

Thanks in advance and looking forward to the boards thoughts?

Not the worst idea

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Sorry for intruding but if North are considering a trade down with richmond, i wonder if a trade with Adelaide first could work. Where we obtain a F2 and then trade 4 + f2 for 2 (keeping north inside the recognised top 4 players in this draft) which would offer north an extra pick and then they look to trade 4 with richmond for 6 + 18 so you get 6 + 18 + f2 for 2 in the wash.

Personally if i was North i'd hold 2 and grab one of FOS, Lalor, Draper or Smith and keep boosting the midfield.

Thanks in advance and looking forward to the boards thoughts?

Don’t mind it at all, would make more sense to try milk pick 2 a bit more rather than just jumping into bed with Richmond. Would be very dependent on who Richmond want though. Potentially opens the door on Carlton snapping up FOS/Lalor with pick 3.

How are you going to get a F2 with your current draft hand though? Doubt you have enough capital to make it happen.

 

[Crow till I die]

Don’t mind it at all, would make more sense to try milk pick 2 a bit more rather than just jumping into bed with Richmond. Would be very dependent on who Richmond want though. Potentially opens the door on Carlton snapping up FOS/Lalor with pick 3.

How are you going to get a F2 with your current draft hand though? Doubt you have enough capital to make it happen.

We have 3 x f3's so i'd hope we could turn a couple of those into an f2 as plenty of clubs have academy kids next year so will want extra points...thats the hope anyway

 

[perplexed]

Sorry for intruding but if North are considering a trade down with richmond, i wonder if a trade with Adelaide first could work. Where we obtain a F2 and then trade 4 + f2 for 2 (keeping north inside the recognised top 4 players in this draft) which would offer north an extra pick and then they look to trade 4 with richmond for 6 + 18 so you get 6 + 18 + f2 for 2 in the wash.

Personally if i was North i'd hold 2 and grab one of FOS, Lalor, Draper or Smith and keep boosting the midfield.

Thanks in advance and looking forward to the boards thoughts?

If you would do 4 + F1 > 2 + F2, F3, it would be more appealing. An F2 next year doesn't have much attraction, unless it was Richmond's. The second round next year could go into the 40's.

 

[THE_GUN]

Sorry for intruding but if North are considering a trade down with richmond, i wonder if a trade with Adelaide first could work. Where we obtain a F2 and then trade 4 + f2 for 2 (keeping north inside the recognised top 4 players in this draft) which would offer north an extra pick and then they look to trade 4 with richmond for 6 + 18 so you get 6 + 18 + f2 for 2 in the wash.

Personally if i was North i'd hold 2 and grab one of FOS, Lalor, Draper or Smith and keep boosting the midfield.

Thanks in advance and looking forward to the boards thoughts?

Richmond were not interested in pick #3 which could have been easily done in the Baker +#11 trade for #3
so no chance Richmond would take that as #4 & #6 are effectively the same player group

I honestly dont know if they are truly even interested in #2 and most likely just media beatup

 

[Crow till I die]

If you would do 4 + F1 > 2 + F2, F3, it would be more appealing. An F2 next year doesn't have much attraction, unless it was Richmond's. The second round next year could go into the 40's.

I think we'd just hold 4 in that case and grab whichever of the top 4 is left in the board. That F1 i suspect will be part of a trade play for a NWM or Phillipou

 

[perplexed]

I think we'd just hold 4 in that case and grab whichever of the top 4 is left in the board. That F1 i suspect will be part of a trade play for a NWM or Phillipou

Yeah, I wouldn't either if I were you guys. There is every chance you'll get the same player at 4 as you would be trading up for.

 

[Crow till I die]

Yeah, I wouldn't either if I were you guys. There is every chance you'll get the same player at 4 as you would be trading up for.

Good luck in the draft..either way you guys will grab a top player to add to the quality kids you already have

 

[desie]

1-Because we are the ones desperate to shop it.
2- you can throw a hat over the top end…..there’s no standout.

Unfortunately for us….which seems to happen in every situation….its not in our favour.

We shouldn’t be desperate to shop it.

We could just as easily use two and then trade back in at an appropriate time on the night using our F2 or 3 if there’s someone still on the board that we rate much higher.

 

[ferball]

The only problem with 6 AND 11, that I can see, is we have the Demons picking before us and then Tigers picking before us, and they could both take Armstrong AND Tauru. That’s an issue if that’s what we’ve manoeuvred to try and achieve.

We take one of Tauru or Armstrong at 6 don't we?

 

[ohmygewd]

I think Carlton takes Draper at 3 - he just fits what that midfield is lacking and that's speed and agility. The GHF won't come into play with this kid and he'll have the Camp twins to keep him company.
At pick 2, l'd call Kako just to f the scum, then call Ashcroft.

 

[LB2Snake]

If a deal gets done with Richmond im pretty sure these things would be discussed and agreed upon who the target is.
I doubt Richmond would look at Armstrong to be honest all the noise has been about Faull / J.Whitlock

Dees are a worry. Not for both, but def for one of them.

 

[LB2Snake]

This is my stab in the dark…

Brisbane: Ashcroft (bid)
Richmond: Lalor
Richmond: FOS
Carlton: Smith
Adelaide: Draper
Melbourne:Reid
North:Tauru
Essendon:Kako (stk bid)
St Kilda:Smillie
St Kilda:Travaglia
Melbourne:Armstrong
Gold Coast: Lombard (rich bid)
Richmond: Allen
North: Berry/Trainor/Shanahan

Think we take Armstrong first personally.

 

[LB2Snake]

Sorry for intruding but if North are considering a trade down with richmond, i wonder if a trade with Adelaide first could work. Where we obtain a F2 and then trade 4 + f2 for 2 (keeping north inside the recognised top 4 players in this draft) which would offer north an extra pick and then they look to trade 4 with richmond for 6 + 18 so you get 6 + 18 + f2 for 2 in the wash.

Personally if i was North i'd hold 2 and grab one of FOS, Lalor, Draper or Smith and keep boosting the midfield.

Thanks in advance and looking forward to the boards thoughts?

I’ve actually thought all along we should be dealing with Adelaide. But I don’t think you have enough collateral for this year, which is the draft we are trying to get a second pick in. The slide back a couple of spots for us is much more appealing, it’s where I don’t luv the 6 and 11. Why is 11 and not 10? love how many different machinations can play out from here with the top 10-20 though. Think there will be heaps happening. All clubs keeping cards close to their chest at the moment, apart from the one obviously doing their bidding via the media.
Gunna be interesting if any or all deals play out the way we think/expect. Something generally comes out of left field.
Dees I think still try and push up to 2. Blues have no more capital so they watch on nervously, whether they admit it or not.
Saints could make a serious play for pick 2, they probably need that top tier guy more though most. Giants hold an interesting hand as well, worth F1 trading to get up? Lots to happen and theorise about. AFL would be wrapt there are prospective trades that get clubs supporters going to various stages of denial. Absolutely love it.
Think Cal’s phantom gunna be tough work for him this year. Clubs are getting smarter about showing their interest.
Wondering if a club with later pick has pushed the Trainor narrative harder that in needs to to to see him slide back a bit. Could even be us.

Bloody hell that’s a long post. Have had a few beers.
TLDR - pretty much hold firm till draft night. Lots will happen.

 

[The Talent Scout]

I like Tauru. He projects as a key forward I reckon

Yes, he projects as someone that could be very exciting in either defence or attack and if we can't get him and Harry, hopefully we get one of them and Jack Whitlock or Kayle Gerreyn, with the third pick I think getting Konstantly might shift our thinking to someone else but early days so lets see what happens in the next three weeks.

 

[The Talent Scout]

The only problem with 6 AND 11, that I can see, is we have the Demons picking before us and then Tigers picking before us, and they could both take Armstrong AND Tauru. That’s an issue if that’s what we’ve manoeuvred to try and achieve.

If we got this deal I'm pretty confident Melbourne wouldn't take Harry, Alix on the other hand is exactly someone they need back there, him or Luke Trainor. If they keep their picks they either go two best mids or the best mid and best key defender.
The tigers would take the two best mids at picks #1 and #2 but with pick 10 they would snap Harry up in a heartbeat, that is why IF we are after both Alix and Harry we go after 10 not 11 and then we can get them both otherwise only one of them is our target, with two picks to go in this scenario it does offer lots of possibility's as to who the other two prospects are.

 

[THE_GUN]

Dees are a worry. Not for both, but def for one of them.

I personally think the Dee's go mids with both picks But Skilda will be the team to watch regarding Armstrong

Think we take Armstrong first personally.

Lalor , Fos , Jagga , Reid , Draper , Langford are the super 6 mids in the 1st Tier then Smillie and Allan
I cant see Melbourne passing on the 1 of the first 6

 

[The Talent Scout]

I’ve actually thought all along we should be dealing with Adelaide. But I don’t think you have enough collateral for this year, which is the draft we are trying to get a second pick in. The slide back a couple of spots for us is much more appealing, it’s where I don’t luv the 6 and 11. Why is 11 and not 10? love how many different machinations can play out from here with the top 10-20 though. Think there will be heaps happening. All clubs keeping cards close to their chest at the moment, apart from the one obviously doing their bidding via the media.
Gunna be interesting if any or all deals play out the way we think/expect. Something generally comes out of left field.
Dees I think still try and push up to 2. Blues have no more capital so they watch on nervously, whether they admit it or not.
Saints could make a serious play for pick 2, they probably need that top tier guy more though most. Giants hold an interesting hand as well, worth F1 trading to get up? Lots to happen and theorise about. AFL would be wrapt there are prospective trades that get clubs supporters going to various stages of denial. Absolutely love it.
Think Cal’s phantom gunna be tough work for him this year. Clubs are getting smarter about showing their interest.
Wondering if a club with later pick has pushed the Trainor narrative harder that in needs to to to see him slide back a bit. Could even be us.

Bloody hell that’s a long post. Have had a few beers.
TLDR - pretty much hold firm till draft night. Lots will happen.

Great post LB2Snake, there will be lots of cat & mouse games going on and the exact way you said it, if we are after 6 and 10 and not 11 this makes perfect sense and if Melbourne really like one of those star mids and got wind that the tigers were going to offer us 6 and 10 they might very well jump the cue and say we'll offer you 5 and 9 for say your pick 2 and a future 2nd, there is, in my minds eye a lot more playing out, than supporters think, clubs testing the waters so to speak. Come draft night there is going to be a lot of surprising things happen, so if you need to go to the toilet go before the draft starts because I can guarantee you if you don't, when you get back certain picks you thought clubs had won't be the same.

 

[windows1]

Not sure what has happened in trade week to make some tigers fans think you’d take 6,10 for 2 and your F1. ****ing insane. Won’t happen.

More likely 6,10,11 for 2 and F1.

On points it’s like 4000 in (after academy) for 4200 out.

I think that’s a better deal for both. The mooted Herald Sun deal won’t happen.

If the Tigers LM dont like it then I’d tell them to get ****ed if I was North. Someone will come for that pick. Be patient.

 

[Masked Avenger]

Not sure what has happened in trade week to make some tigers fans think you’d take 6,10 for 2 and your F1. ****ing insane. Won’t happen.

More likely 6,10,11 for 2 and F1.

On points it’s like 4000 in (after academy) for 4200 out.

I think that’s a better deal for both. The mooted Herald Sun deal won’t happen.

If the Tigers LM dont like it then I’d tell them to get ****ed if I was North. Someone will come for that pick. Be patient.

Even your suggestion doesn't get there.

Firstly, two likely picks inside 5 for 3 picks outside 5 - doesn't cut it.

The points comparison is worthless because history shows that elite talent statistically lies in the top 5 picks so the AFL needs to adjust the points system to reflect that.

I can see us trading out either Pick 2 or F1 - but not both if it means we don't get a top 5 pick in return.

 

[windows1]

Even your suggestion doesn't get there.

Firstly, two likely picks inside 5 for 3 picks outside 5 - doesn't cut it.

The points comparison is worthless because history shows that elite talent statistically lies in the top 5 picks so the AFL needs to adjust the points system to reflect that.

I can see us trading out either Pick 2 or F1 - but not both if it means we don't get a top 5 pick in return.

Fair. I’m just factoring in that next year will be affected by GC kids and a weaker draft.

But I’m only demonstrating there are far better scenarios than the ridiculous one put forward in the Sun. I don’t even know how that passes the Edit desk.

 

[LB2Snake]

Even your suggestion doesn't get there.

Firstly, two likely picks inside 5 for 3 picks outside 5 - doesn't cut it.

The points comparison is worthless because history shows that elite talent statistically lies in the top 5 picks so the AFL needs to adjust the points system to reflect that.

I can see us trading out either Pick 2 or F1 - but not both if it means we don't get a top 5 pick in return.

6+10 and 11 for 2 and our F1 is a good deal for both clubs, but going by the bleating Tiger media narrative, and the Tigers supporters, there’s little chance of that happening.
It’s the move we should be holding firm to, but Tiger media will rant on with “North offered its F1 for GC 13 and were knocked back, no way that deal is worth it. This draft is so deep(ie even), Richmond would be crazy to do that deal”
I actually think it’ll be 6+10 and 18 for 2 and F1……which doesn’t sit great with me. But the 10 is worth a lot more to us than just the one spot over 11.

 

[dazzledavey36]

I don’t think they are. Hearing they luv Langford at 5 and, as everyone is, are big on FOS.

I agree.
The whole notion that Melbourne need a key forward especially at pick 5 is all guess work.

Our midfield is aging and needs new growth.

I'm a big Langford fan so I do hope that you saying we're strong on Langford comes to fruition.

 

[Duck the GOAT]

Fair. I’m just factoring in that next year will be affected by GC kids and a weaker draft.

But I’m only demonstrating there are far better scenarios than the ridiculous one put forward in the Sun. I don’t even know how that passes the Edit desk.

When I first read it...

...I had to reread it...

...and then reread it again.

...then I had to make sure Herald Sun weren't backing as for the flag to make sense of it