Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

[kool kangas]

What about our F1 for Tigers #6???

do it in a heart beat...

 

[pitchster]

Id honestly hope he is bid at 1. He damn well should be

Unfortunately its just another thing the AFL seems to fail at. Attaching money to draft positions in particular can be a deterrent to picking players where they belong. Should scrap the money attached to draft positions completely. He would go at 1 in an open pool, i dont think there is any doubt it that.

 

[The Talent Scout]

G'day Kangas I hope it's ok to jump in here with my thoughts as a Tigers supporter.

Personally, I think we should NOT chase pick 2 from North. The top 7-8 picks seem to be very even, and I don't think it's worth trading multiple picks to gain 4 spots and probably lose pick 11 as well especially seeing as we have such early picks in 1,6,10 &11.
I think we will use 6 of the 8 picks in the draft and the other 2 try for future 1st's from teams like Sydney/Geelong.
Reading through this thread it looks like you guys are after similar players to us and in all honesty if we did help North split picks, it would hinder us in getting the players we need.

I'm hoping we can get the following:

Pick 1: Langford
Pick 6: Lalor
Pick 10: Armstrong
Pick 11: Travaglia/Tauru

Hey A Bit Dusty, of course it is, your reasoning is on par with lots of supporters, so in that regard its understandable, Richmond, Melbourne and St Kilda have choices to make in four weeks time if they haven't been made already, if indeed your club say trades a couple of picks into next year like 23 and 24 and that leaves them picks #1, #6 , #10, #11, #18, and #20.

If you take those picks to the draft I will be quite astonished even though its an even draft, there is going to be lots of supporters chewing their fingernails during the draft with live trading of picks, both excited and nervous, it promises to have everything, I think its going to be a "Bruce" moment, its going to be "special"!

 

[Dan]

I liked watching Lalor's highlights.

There's a bit of Petracca about him.

Just about every draftee ranking I see has him in that 4-8 range....is pick 2 too much?

 

[The Talent Scout]

It's not really about 'if they're right'

It's about what they believe.

Richmond may have Jagger, FOS, and Lalor as the stand-out mids, and all are very different types. If they want 2 of them, they need to trade up. Simples.

It may be a .mistake, it may be a master-stroke. In 5 years, we'll know.

On SM-G991B using BigFooty.com mobile app

I firmly believe some fans just don't get it. I think with this even draft phrase that the supporters are so excited, its like kids at a shop that have been given lots of money to buy toys, some of these fans want to buy lots and lots of toys where I think the best ploy is to buy the best toys, now they might be more expensive but not all kids will have them!

Tigers are going to trade up and their fans aren't going to be happy, can see it as plain as day, IF they don't and lets just say St Kilda or Melbourne trade up to get that pick 2 from us I hope for their sake they nail that pick 6, after they get what's left over, gee with the picks they have this is a big gamble, the choice is being taken out of their hands when with what they have, they should get the best and dictate who they want, instead of being dictated to!

 

[Junk yard]

I doubt very much we would take 6-18 for 2. But like you say it's your opinion. There really is no right or wrong not for 4-5 years anyway. And even then its only hindsight.

If the bloke we want first is going to be available at six then why wouldn't we take it? Makes no sense if it's an option. Take whatever benefit we can, if a late first rounder is all we can get, then that's fine.

 

[chubbspeterson]

If the end goal is Tauru, the general consensus is pick 2 is too far a reach. If we pick swap exclusively with the club directly following our pick and do this 2-3 times, we should improve our later draft hand and pounce on Tauru when the time is right.

A previous poster mentioned our first deal should be with Carlton who want a mid (2 for 3 & 39). We then deal with Adelaide, who you think are keen on Draper (3 & 39 for 4 & F2). Next up Melbourne. If Brady can get a nudge, nudge, wink, wink from them that they are going midfielder also, we slide again (4 & one or two F2s for 5 and ???).

The cycle stops when we’re confident the next pick comes for Tauru. It may be before the Melbourne pick at 5 but suddenly we have extra currency to trade back into this draft and add another pick in the late teens or early 20s and still retain F1.

Crows only have a F1. F2 went in Peatling trade.

 

[chubbspeterson]

Id honestly hope he is bid at 1. He damn well should be

They won't. Not bidding would have been part of pick swap points discussion for pick 20.

 

[chubbspeterson]

The blues traded 12 & 14 for pick 3. They didn't give up a pick to move up from pick 6.

They also gave up a F1 and F2 to get 14, then 12 just to get pick 3. You only do that for a elite talent.

 

[DuckYeah]

I liked watching Lalor's highlights.

There's a bit of Petracca about him.

Just about every draftee ranking I see has him in that 4-8 range....is pick 2 too much?

Even with the hammy concerns, he’ll go top 3.

 

[DuckYeah]

They won't. Not bidding would have been part of pick swap points discussion for pick 20.

Tip rats.

 

[Souup]

Nobody would agree to trade 6 + 11 for 8 + 12, so therefore, 6 + 11 is not really equivalent to 8 + 12. There was way too much mud in the water over that multi club trade in 2022 to establish reasonable precedent. Did we get fair value for pick 1? Yes we did, given that we were not interested in the player GWS traded up for. Likewise, West Coast was looking at some locals later in the first round and they drafted exactly the players that they wanted so it worked for them. In this draft, we have to weigh up whether we can secure the two players we specifically want with the picks offered up for pick 2. That's what it comes down to. If not, we take the best player at 2.

Of course it's not 1 for 1 equivalent, but it's a deal that sets a precedent for what you can expect.

It's like valuing a house. No house is exactly the same as others, but you'll use similar houses in similar areas to determine approximate value.

 

[giantroo]

 

[FootySmartSimpson]

Harvey Langford intrigues me. He is rated anywhere between 2-10 in draft rankings, has amazing numbers and will probably be a champion.

The biggest knock on him is his speed.

Does he have any agility on the inside that may be a point of difference at AFL?

Does he possess the outside smarts and aerobic capacity to know where to run to similar to a Sidebottom or Sheezel?

 

[kangatragic]

We need either him or Alix Tauru in this draft that's why it would be in our best interests to split pick 2 as surely one of them will still be available at 6 or 7

 

[roos_fanatic08]

I liked watching Lalor's highlights.

There's a bit of Petracca about him.

Just about every draftee ranking I see has him in that 4-8 range....is pick 2 too much?

There is talk that Richmond are keen at 1. So it's not too much of a reach to pull the trigger on him with pick 2.

Biggest concern for mine, with Lalor is his body, across the last few years he has already had plenty of back/hip and hamstring issues. I've been told that a lot of it is due to his cricket (he is a gun cricketer too).

Upside is obvious, but there is considerable risk there.

Harvey Langford intrigues me. He is rated anywhere between 2-10 in draft rankings, has amazing numbers and will probably be a champion.

The biggest knock on him is his speed.

Does he have any agility on the inside that may be a point of difference at AFL?

Does he possess the outside smarts and aerobic capacity to know where to run to similar to a Sidebottom or Sheezel?

Langford has genuine smarts, despite his speed he can find the footy in all thirds of the ground. In the academy game at the start of the year he played as a winger and I'm pretty sure he had the most touches on the ground. He doesn't mind finding the footy on the outside as he can utilise his booming kick. Definitely has the tank too, finished in the top 10 (8th) at the combine for the 2km run. I've been reliably told that his GPS numbers in games is pretty impressive too.

I don't have access to his agility numbers but have been told he was mid field in the testing.

I've been a big fan across the year, and I see a future AFL captain, but I can't help but feel he is too similar to Jack Ziebell with his movement, which doesn't really suit our list.

 

[Heaps of fun]

Assuming no one else is delisted how many list spots do we have?

 

[remfan101]

There is talk that Richmond are keen at 1. So it's not too much of a reach to pull the trigger on him with pick 2.

Biggest concern for mine, with Lalor is his body, across the last few years he has already had plenty of back/hip and hamstring issues. I've been told that a lot of it is due to his cricket (he is a gun cricketer too).

Upside is obvious, but there is considerable risk there.




Langford has genuine smarts, despite his speed he can find the footy in all thirds of the ground. In the academy game at the start of the year he played as a winger and I'm pretty sure he had the most touches on the ground. He doesn't mind finding the footy on the outside as he can utilise his booming kick. Definitely has the tank too, finished in the top 10 (8th) at the combine for the 2km run. I've been reliably told that his GPS numbers in games is pretty impressive too.

I don't have access to his agility numbers but have been told he was mid field in the testing.

I've been a big fan across the year, and I see a future AFL captain, but I can't help but feel he is too similar to Jack Ziebell with his movement, which doesn't really suit our list.

The best thing about Langford is his contested marking, real team-lifting back with the flight type stuff. I see the Jack Ziebell comparison for sure, even though he's less slapdash stylistically and a lot more composed in traffic.

The combination of very poor speed (particularly for an inside/outside mid) and what I still feel is suspect/inconsistent kicking means I probably wouldn't pick him in the top 10, but you can see the appeal for sure.

 

[FootySmartSimpson]

There is talk that Richmond are keen at 1. So it's not too much of a reach to pull the trigger on him with pick 2.

Biggest concern for mine, with Lalor is his body, across the last few years he has already had plenty of back/hip and hamstring issues. I've been told that a lot of it is due to his cricket (he is a gun cricketer too).

Upside is obvious, but there is considerable risk there.




Langford has genuine smarts, despite his speed he can find the footy in all thirds of the ground. In the academy game at the start of the year he played as a winger and I'm pretty sure he had the most touches on the ground. He doesn't mind finding the footy on the outside as he can utilise his booming kick. Definitely has the tank too, finished in the top 10 (8th) at the combine for the 2km run. I've been reliably told that his GPS numbers in games is pretty impressive too.

I don't have access to his agility numbers but have been told he was mid field in the testing.

I've been a big fan across the year, and I see a future AFL captain, but I can't help but feel he is too similar to Jack Ziebell with his movement, which doesn't really suit our list.

Scenario:

North trade 2+F2/(F1)and bring in 6+11 (plus change)

Or

North trade 2+F2 > 7,8…

If we were to bring in Tauru/Armstrong and a Langford or Smillie were still available, would you be taking one of the “sliding” mids or doubling down with more KPPs?

 

[FootySmartSimpson]

There is talk that Richmond are keen at 1. So it's not too much of a reach to pull the trigger on him with pick 2.

Biggest concern for mine, with Lalor is his body, across the last few years he has already had plenty of back/hip and hamstring issues. I've been told that a lot of it is due to his cricket (he is a gun cricketer too).

Upside is obvious, but there is considerable risk there.




Langford has genuine smarts, despite his speed he can find the footy in all thirds of the ground. In the academy game at the start of the year he played as a winger and I'm pretty sure he had the most touches on the ground. He doesn't mind finding the footy on the outside as he can utilise his booming kick. Definitely has the tank too, finished in the top 10 (8th) at the combine for the 2km run. I've been reliably told that his GPS numbers in games is pretty impressive too.

I don't have access to his agility numbers but have been told he was mid field in the testing.

I've been a big fan across the year, and I see a future AFL captain, but I can't help but feel he is too similar to Jack Ziebell with his movement, which doesn't really suit our list.

We need all the endurance and smarts we can get. I love what you say about his balance of uncontested and contested possession and his marking and kicking seem like real points of difference.

He also seems to have the size and endurance to have an impact straight away across HB/HF.

I realise speed is sexy but smarts win you games, especially when he would be surrounded by LDU, Wardlaw and Kerch.

Would not be disappointed if he was at North 2025.

 

[perplexed]

Assuming no one else is delisted how many list spots do we have?

1

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Scenario:

North trade 2+F2/(F1)and bring in 6+11 (plus change)

Or

North trade 2+F2 > 7,8…

If we were to bring in Tauru/Armstrong and a Langford or Smillie were still available, would you be taking one of the “sliding” mids or doubling down with more KPPs?

If we were to go to the draft with 6 & 11. I'd prefer we took a mid at 6 rather than reaching for Tauru. I don't have Armstrong as the out and out best key forward in this draft so I'd be more than happy to take the best tall on our list at 11. Then I'd go try trade into the 20's and take another tall or Hannaford (depending on who is available).

Pick 6 (Best left of the mids) - Lalor/Smith/Langford/Smillie
Pick 11 (best tall) - Armstrong/J.Whitlock/Tauru/Trainor/Shanahan
Pick 28 (traded in) (best tall or small forward) - Gerryen/Faull/M.Whitlock/O'Farrell/Hannaford

The other alternative is if we did take a tall with 6, then I'd probably target one of the classier mids with pick 11. My ideal pick there would be Xavier Lindsay, but you could also look at Murphy Reid or Taj Hotton.

We need all the endurance and smarts we can get. I love what you say about his balance of uncontested and contested possession and his marking and kicking seem like real points of difference.

He also seems to have the size and endurance to have an impact straight away across HB/HF.

I realise speed is sexy but smarts win you games, especially when he would be surrounded by LDU, Wardlaw and Kerch.

Would not be disappointed if he was at North 2025.

The tank is a big selling point. Even if he is a bit one paced as long as he can motor from contest to contest it's not as big of an issue. Especially when he is surrounded by those players you mention.

I really love his marking it's genuinely elite, he has such strong hands and it's only going to get better as he gets stronger.

I reckon you could park him across half back next year and he'd have a field day intercept marking.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

I’m all for trading our F1 into this years draft, but like pick 2 it would have to be a decent haul to make us blink. Talk of a pick around 10 or 12 wouldn’t do it for me, as our F1 is likely going to be a top 5 pick again. Talk of two later first round pick (GWS) doesn’t do it for me either.

Really think we should’ve walked away from the Daniel deal rather than give up 25. It decreases how leverage with pick 2 because clubs know we need more picks inside the top 30. Also decreases our ability to trade up a combo of 25 and F2.

So many players I like in this draft and I think we are going to miss out on so many of them.

I totally get what you're saying. However, if we trade our F1 to GWS for picks 15 and 16, then it gives us better leverage when it comes to trading pick 2 because our second highest pick is no longer in the 60's. If we are drafting on a needs basis, then it's fair to say that the players we "need" are going to fall in that 10 - 30 pick range so it's not terrible. I still want fair value for our F1 and slight overs for our pick 2 though as we should reasonably expect.

So this basically gives us everything you want as you've previously mentioned.

Pick 6: Best mid available
Pick 11: Best tall (Armstrong/J.Whitlock/Tauru/Trainor/Shanahan)
Pick 15: Best small forward (Hannaford/ Hotton)
Pick 16: Another tall forward (Armstrong/J.Whitlock/Tauru/Trainor/Shanahan/Gerryen)

 

[Only Forwards]

North trade 2+F2/(F1)and bring in 6+11 (plus change)

The including of our future first in any of these scenarios is nuts.

It is unlikely we go from being a 3 win a year team to a 10 win a year team in this off season.

There is some balance in the 2 + F2 trade, it is in our favour. 2 + F2 + f3 for 6 + 11/18 + f4 probably round about.

however a trade of 2 + F1 would require significantly more because in all probability you are trading 2+4. what would you expect for 2+4 in this draft? I would expect so much that no team would put up enough and even if they did I would be reluctant to take it given we would be effectively by cutting ourselves our of the top echelon of talent in two drafts.

 

[kool kangas]

Assuming no one else is delisted how many list spots do we have?

1 but dont worry the Kangaroo culling hasn't finished yet...we most likely will end up with 3 or 4...