Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

[LB2Snake]

Talks quite similar to Harley …….likeable country bloke confidence.

 

[Val Keating]

He's more talented than Jack Watts. I think it might be more a case he thinks that he's going top 5 so he doesn't really have to work that hard. I'm sure he's received plenty of feedback from coaches and AFL teams on it.

That attitude would push him further back if I was a list manager.

 

[New_Roo]

100% - until we look like we can push for finals - or at least get out of the bottom 6 our future 1st should be off limits.

But then it wont be worth as much either.... have to trade it when your expectations considerably differ to that of the buyer...


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[My Left Foote]

If you are going to be that pedantic, wouldn't pick 6 be slipping back more than a few places?

Sure, to appease your pedantry, he actually said 3 or 4 places hopefully you’re not as perplexed now.

 

[My Left Foote]

Pretty funny that “Don’t wanna trade pick 6”, but still want pick 2. I’m looking for a new ride at the minute, maybe I’ll offer the dealer half the money the car is advertised for, I’ll let ya know how I go.

At no point have the Tigers said they want pick 2 it’s all speculation. As is the stance on them not wanting to trade pick 6. I’m simply stating that if that is indeed true then we will keep pick 2. I’m not sure what part of that you don’t understand.

Good luck at the car dealership.

 

[LB2Snake]

At no point have the Tigers said they want pick 2 it’s all speculation. As is the stance on them not wanting to trade pick 6. I’m simply stating that if that is indeed true then we will keep pick 2. I’m not sure what part of that you don’t understand.

Good luck at the car dealership.

Nah not you……on other draft boards. I never said you said that. I’m happy to keep pick 2. I’m also happy to talk about other deals on here. That’s what I thought we were doing. Was never a dig at you, not how I roll.

 

[My Left Foote]

Nah not you……on other draft boards. I never said you said that. I’m happy to keep pick 2. I’m also happy to talk about other deals on here. That’s what I thought we were doing. Was never a dig at you, not how I roll.

Apologies, completely misinterpreted that.

 

[LB2Snake]

Apologies, completely misinterpreted that.

I’m still gunna try the car deal.

 

[Makeshift Park]

Alright, a disclaimer, I was already on Team Tauru, but the Gettable interview has done nothing to make me question that.

He came across as thoughtful, well-humoured, head-screwed-on-right with a good-spirited sense of competitiveness.

Did a plug for this mental health fundraiser he's doing at the end. Can't imagine JHF showing that kind of charitable initiative in his draft year.

 

[Chewy Chewman]

Nah I’ll just keep pick two thanks. Imagine passing up an LDU just to have a Nick Coffield and Hunter Clarke instead.

 

[zoomba23]

Nah I’ll just keep pick two thanks. Imagine passing up an LDU just to have a Nick Coffield and Hunter Clarke instead.

Is there going to be an LDU-type slider this time round? A LOT of people had him at number one in his year. Not sure there's an equivalent this time. Lalor at a stretch perhaps, but frankly I think LDU, Wardlaw, Sheezel, Simpkin/Parker, and pinch-hitting forwards should be able to cover the engine room next year

 

[chubbspeterson]

Nah I’ll just keep pick two thanks. Imagine passing up an LDU just to have a Nick Coffield and Hunter Clarke instead.

LDU was pick 4. Should have gone with Wardlaw as your example.

 

[Newbie Real Talk]

Be honest.
If we were to take 6+18, would you consider Tauru plus Faull/M.Whitlock/O'Farrell to be an unfair swap for pick 2?

 

[DuckYeah]

NM Out: #2 & #F2
NM In: #10, #11, #23.
RICH In: #2 & NM F2.
RICH Out: #10, #11 & #23

Personally don't like trading out F1 rather F2 to get back into this draft.
Picks 6 & 10 would be ideal for #2 but l think the Tiggers will want another top 10 pick before Saints 7 & 8 picks.
If this scenario plays out:
#10 - Allan/Lindsay.
#11 - Trainor/Tauru.
#23 - Gerreyn/Shanahan.

Pick 6 must be in the deal. 6 and 11 or we use pick 2 in the draft. Ive had enough of this shit. You ****ers understand pick 2 is the second best pick of elite talent in the country right?

 

[Boro]

Be honest.
If we were to take 6+18, would you consider Tauru plus Faull/M.Whitlock/O'Farrell to be an unfair swap for pick 2?

Absolutely it’s an unfair swap imo. What’s the hit rate on talls in a draft? What’s the hit rate of picks in the 20’s? What’s the hit rate of pick 2/3? You are throwing away a good shot at an A grader for a speculative pick in the 20’s with that deal. I think you’d want three bites if you are giving away a pick in the top couple.

 

[Passmore]

Be honest.
If we were to take 6+18, would you consider Tauru plus Faull/M.Whitlock/O'Farrell to be an unfair swap for pick 2?

Tell you in a few years.

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[DuckYeah]

Absolutely it’s an unfair swap imo. What’s the hit rate on talls in a draft? What’s the hit rate of picks in the 20’s? What’s the hit rate of pick 2/3? You are throwing away a good shot at an A grader for a speculative pick in the 20’s with that deal. I think you’d want three bites if you are giving away a pick in the top couple.

6/11

Or

 

[Chip Scab1]

In isolation yes, has to be linked to getting 5 & 9, I’d be stoked to walk away with:
5 - Tauru
9 - Armstrong
15 - Berry

That's a massive reach for a brave tweener.

5:
9: Tauru
15: Gerryn

Pick 6 must be in the deal. 6 and 11 or we use pick 2 in the draft. Ive had enough of this shit. You ****ers understand pick 2 is the second best pick of elite talent in the country right?

Some of these hot takes are absolutely ridiculous. We are the ones in power, it's amazing to think that that we can barely hope to break even in some peoples minds, and should be be grateful of that... umm no.

 

[giantroo]

 

[Makeshift Park]

What’s the hit rate on talls in a draft?

Well given that the centrepiece of the hypothetical deal for North would be getting Armstrong or Tauru with pick 6, and the consensus is that even if we didn't pick them, they'd go in the top dozen, lets look at the strike rate for talls picked in the first dozen of the previous drafts.

Its too early to judge the classes of 2022/23 like Aaron Cadman and Jed Walter (but I'd be surprised if they don't have decent careers).

2021:
Darcy - tick
Mac Andrew - tick
Amiss - tick

2020: (the bad year)
JUH - tick
Thilthorpe - jury out
McDonald - subpar for top 5 pick
DGB - bust
Cox - appears to be bust
Reid - appears to be bust (repeated soft tissue injuries)

2019:
Jackson - tick
McAsey - bust (mental health)

2018:
Lukosius - subpar for a top five pick
M King - tick
B King - tick
Blakey - tick

2017:
Naughton - tick
Fogarty - tick

2016:
Logue - tick

2015:
Weitering - tick
Schache - bust
Weideman - bust
H McKay - tick
Curnow - tick

Out of 22 talls taken in the top dozen picks between 2015 - 21..
14 were good
1 the jury's out for
2 could football but were taken too high
6 have been busts - but for two that was down to concussion and mental health - factors unrelated to their height - while a third has underperformed in large part due to soft tissue injuries

Once you did the same analysis of non-talls, and included the likes of Stephenson, Stephens, Dow, Phillips, Chayce Jones, TT, and Sinn, I reckon the risk with selecting talls would be higher, but not prohibitively so.

 

[Benj7]

FOS looks wayyyy too good to trade pick two. We could potentially be trading away Petracca for Marchbank & Cockatoo.

 

[Colby Cheer Squad]

Absolutely it’s an unfair swap imo. What’s the hit rate on talls in a draft? What’s the hit rate of picks in the 20’s? What’s the hit rate of pick 2/3? You are throwing away a good shot at an A grader for a speculative pick in the 20’s with that deal. I think you’d want three bites if you are giving away a pick in the top couple.

Tauru is also a bit speculative, especially at pick 6. I'm okay with taking the risk but he's not exactly a slam dunk 200 game player at this point.

 

[King Corey]

Well given that the centrepiece of the hypothetical deal for North would be getting Armstrong or Tauru with pick 6, and the consensus is that even if we didn't pick them, they'd go in the top dozen, lets look at the strike rate for talls picked in the first dozen of the previous drafts.

Its too early to judge the classes of 2022/23 like Aaron Cadman and Jed Walter (but I'd be surprised if they don't have decent careers).

2021:
Darcy - tick
Mac Andrew - tick
Amiss - tick

2020: (the bad year)
JUH - tick
Thilthorpe - jury out
McDonald - subpar for top 5 pick
DGB - bust
Cox - appears to be bust
Reid - appears to be bust (repeated soft tissue injuries)

2019:
Jackson - tick
McAsey - bust (mental health)

2018:
Lukosius - subpar for a top five pick
M King - tick
B King - tick
Blakey - tick

2017:
Naughton - tick
Fogarty - tick

2016:
Logue - tick

2015:
Weitering - tick
Schache - bust
Weideman - bust
H McKay - tick
Curnow - tick

Out of 22 talls taken in the top dozen picks between 2015 - 21..
14 were good
1 the jury's out for
2 could football but were taken too high
6 have been busts - but for two that was down to concussion and mental health - factors unrelated to their height - while a third has underperformed in large part due to soft tissue injuries

Once you did the same analysis of non-talls, and included the likes of Stephenson, Stephens, Dow, Phillips, Chayce Jones, TT, and Sinn, I reckon the risk with selecting talls would be higher, but not prohibitively so.

Interesting stuff mate. On that tiny sample the strikerate is better than expected.

Fwiw both mental health affected players had to start their careers interstate. Just another variable.

 

[giantroo]

 

[Wally Matera]

In the event that we were able to get 10/11 from Richmond for a future first rounder, I'd love to see what we'd do there.

Assuming we'd go with a mid at 2 Lalor/O'Sullivan/Smith/Langford

Pick 10 a KP - Armstrong/J.Whitlock/Tauru/Shanahan

Pick 11 all-rounder or utility - Xavier Lindsay/Bo Allen/Taj Hotton/Tobie Travaglia

Re-jigged the senior list and Trade in a F3 to take one of the other KP's later on in the draft - Kayle Gerreyn, Tom Sims, Harry O'Farrell, Noah Mraz.

That would be an ideal scenario for us imo.

LOL. You couldnt get 13 for a F1... but yet you're hoping to get 10 & 11 for it? Funny.