Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

Broadcast Guide - Live Draft ...

1st Round tonight (20th Nov) from 7.00PM
2nd Round tomorrow night (21st Nov) from 7.00PM

FoxFooty (Ch 504)
Kayo
foxfooty.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Because either we've made it deliberately obvious that we're selecting Draper, or we're actually selecting him.

Where have we deliberately made it obvious?

 

[Sector 7G]

I did specify that the above primarily related to midfielders. As for the midfield examples they are fre and far between as your examples suggest

Patty Cripps is an example of a player not up to AFL standard in his first year despite good form in the 2s. Only Thing worse than young players rotting away in the 2 despite good form is them losing confidence in the ones not getting near it.

 

[bmaurizio]

Ah blinded by the speed, certainly selecting Sid Draper will satisfy the POD faction.
I rather finesse, skill and good footy IQ,
Whatever the outcome, Austin should get it right, anyone of FOS, Smith, Draper or Langford will add, exuberance and special natural abilities to our club.
In Austin we trust.

 

[Sharks On A Plane]

Where have we deliberately made it obvious?

From speaking to some people who know 'things', the general impression amongst other recruiting teams is that Carlton will take Draper.

I am unsure if that impression has been deliberately conveyed as a smokescreen, or that we are actually taking him.

 

[V_23]

Would be happy with FOS or Draper.

Watching Draper burst out of packs wearing the Navy Blue would be hard to resist.

 

[Stamos]

From speaking to some people who know 'things', the general impression amongst other recruiting teams is that Carlton will take Draper.

I am unsure if that impression has been deliberately conveyed as a smokescreen, or that we are actually taking him.

It’s interesting that Adelaide would even consider moving up to 2 for Jagga (although that could all be media bullshit) if everyone thinks we’re taking Draper.

 

[marcmurphy3]

It’s interesting that Adelaide would even consider moving up to 2 for Jagga (although that could all be media bullshit) if everyone thinks we’re taking Draper.

Unless the wires got crossed and they actually want to move up for Draper or they see through our smoke screen and know that we want Jagga and want him too.

 

[BlueTongue]

ChatGPT has the answer:

As the 2024 AFL Draft approaches, Carlton holds the third overall pick and is evaluating top prospects to enhance their midfield. Among the leading candidates are Finn O’Sullivan, Jagga Smith, and Sid Draper.

Finn O’Sullivan: A dynamic midfielder from the Oakleigh Chargers, O’Sullivan is known for his athleticism and versatility. Notably, he is the cousin of Carlton star Sam Walsh, adding a familial connection to his potential selection.

Jagga Smith: Also from the Oakleigh Chargers, Smith is recognized for his ball-winning abilities and leadership qualities. His consistent performance and ability to impact games make him a strong contender.

Sid Draper: Hailing from South Australia, Draper offers line-breaking pace and has experience at the senior level, which could be advantageous for Carlton’s midfield.

While all three players present compelling cases, current analyses suggest that Finn O’Sullivan is the most likely choice for Carlton’s third pick. His combination of athleticism, versatility, and the existing connection to Sam Walsh aligns well with Carlton’s strategic goals.

Yes I ran it through the 120 permutations of the Potential Top 5
But Alas, I used the public account which is quite Temu with it's responses ..

 

[WalshYouLegend]

It’s interesting that Adelaide would even consider moving up to 2 for Jagga (although that could all be media bullshit) if everyone thinks we’re taking Draper.

Maybe it’s Austin’s elaborate masterplan to feign that we are selecting Draper to rattle the cage of Adelaide and force them to slide up to Roo’s Pick 2 which ensures we get our real target in Lalor or Foss.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Would be happy with FOS or Draper.

Watching Draper burst out of packs wearing the Navy Blue would be hard to resist.

Was thinking the other day how rare Drapers athletic attributes are for an inside mid.

You probably have to go back to Ball and Judd 20 years ago to find a prospect with a similar combination of speed (plus agility), endurance and ball winning.

 

[bradfisher14]

It’s interesting that Adelaide would even consider moving up to 2 for Jagga (although that could all be media bullshit) if everyone thinks we’re taking Draper.

Could be that they’re worried about Richmond trading up for 2 in order to select Jagga

 

[BluStreak]

Jagga's ability to read where the ball will fall, his agility which makes him hard to tackle and his quickness in disposal would be a great delight to watch in the forward line. Would make him our best small forward.

 

[dangertroy]

I think the adelaide musing about moving up for Smith isnt because they want him and think we will take him. They could want draper, and think we want him too. So they make it known they want to move up for smith rather than draper, as if we really want draper, we can outbid them for pick 2. 3+38 in this draft is more exciting than 4 and a future second next year. Maybe we really do want Smith and pull the trigger on that trade instead of adelaide, and draper falls to them either way.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

From speaking to some people who know 'things', the general impression amongst other recruiting teams is that Carlton will take Draper.

I am unsure if that impression has been deliberately conveyed as a smokescreen, or that we are actually taking him.

So the age reported a couple days ago that recruiters think we are gonna take Jagga, now this bit of info that other recruiting teams think we will take Draper while the media in general think we will take Finn …

Sounds like mixed messages are being put out there by the club to who we are selecting …

I still think Langford is a real possibility as reported by Cal Twomey.

 

[JuddgementDay]

Was thinking the other day how rare Drapers athletic attributes are for an inside mid.

You probably have to go back to Ball and Judd 20 years ago to find a prospect with a similar combination of speed (plus agility), endurance and ball winning.

Assuming we have done due diligence on his injury - Austin just have to lock in Draper for the betterment of team balance.

We've been crying out for some more speed in the midfield -and Draper is a great answer.
Austin lock Draper in for #3 and let's get on with the rest of the draft then - Bring on 2025!

 

[dangertroy]

I think the adelaide musing about moving up for Smith isnt because they want him and think we will take him. They could want draper, and think we want him too. So they make it known they want to move up for smith rather than draper, as if we really want draper, we can outbid them for pick 2. 3+38 in this draft is more exciting than 4 and a future second next year. Maybe we really do want Smith and pull the trigger on that trade instead of adelaide, and draper falls to them either way.

Or, perhaps ive just overthought this like everyone else for the past month, and should just sleep until thursday, and be happy that whoever we picked was the one we wanted all along and cant believe that he slid as far as wherever our pick ends up being.

 

[BrianSetzer]

We need RoyalBlues to get on and tell us exactly what's happening.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Not really true at all tbh. Especially talls. Think you're confusing good players going to shit teams and shit teams being forced to play them with this.


One of the best wingers of the 2010s developed VFL til he was 22 or smthing.



The list of talls who started terribly is extensive. Gawn even said himself if he wasn't 200cm he'd have been cut after 2 years.


The Geelong trio of bartel, Enright and cam Guthrie all started their careers very slowly with sporadic game time in the first 3 seasons and strong messaging to go back and develop elements in the twos. I think Stevie J was in and out for his first 3 seasons not.playing too much either As he had to develop in the twos.

Swan was drafted in 2001 and didn't play ones til 2003.

Cal Wilkie developed in the vfl
Jobe Watson was.depth only first 3 seasons. Matt Priddis was overlooked in multiple years rookie drafts... Developed pretty well in the levels below...

Luke bruest started his third season in the AFL playing in the hawks THIRDS team. Not even selected for Box Hill.........

Luke Shuey won the rising star in his third year having played 6 games in his first two years on the list.

Kai Lohmann just starred in a flag after playing 8 games in his first two years on the lions list.

Plenty of examples of the opposite as well with players who burned brightly early but flamed out just as quickly. Jayden Stevenson, Chad Wiegard, Lewis Taylor etc.

 

[ABigOlDoofus]

Draper scares me, yes we need speed through the midfield but we also need clean users, which he is not currently IMO. That being said, if there was a kid in this draft who was fast AND had incredible kicking, he'd be the number 1 pick and not available to us anyway lol.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Luke Shuey won the rising star in his third year having played 6 games in his first two years on the list.

Kai Lohmann just starred in a flag after playing 8 games in his first two years on the lions list.

Plenty of examples of the opposite as well with players who burned brightly early but flamed out just as quickly. Jayden Stevenson, Chad Wiegard, Lewis Taylor etc.

I rekon I remember hearing Shuey didn’t even play in his first season and then missed pretty much all his second season.

 

[Crippa#9]

Maybe it’s Austin’s elaborate masterplan to feign that we are selecting Draper to rattle the cage of Adelaide and force them to slide up to Roo’s Pick 2 which ensures we get our real target in Lalor or Foss.

That’s exactly my thinking…

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Not really true at all tbh. Especially talls. Think you're confusing good players going to shit teams and shit teams being forced to play them with this.


One of the best wingers of the 2010s developed VFL til he was 22 or smthing.



The list of talls who started terribly is extensive. Gawn even said himself if he wasn't 200cm he'd have been cut after 2 years.


The Geelong trio of bartel, Enright and cam Guthrie all started their careers very slowly with sporadic game time in the first 3 seasons and strong messaging to go back and develop elements in the twos. I think Stevie J was in and out for his first 3 seasons not.playing too much either As he had to develop in the twos.

Swan was drafted in 2001 and didn't play ones til 2003.

Cal Wilkie developed in the vfl
Jobe Watson was.depth only first 3 seasons. Matt Priddis was overlooked in multiple years rookie drafts... Developed pretty well in the levels below...

Luke bruest started his third season in the AFL playing in the hawks THIRDS team. Not even selected for Box Hill.........

How about since say 2014? (Last 10 years)
I’m sure there are mids who have taken time but they do seem to be impacting much more quickly.

 

[bradfisher14]

Draper scares me, yes we need speed through the midfield but we also need clean users, which he is not currently IMO. That being said, if there was a kid in this draft who was fast AND had incredible kicking, he'd be the number 1 pick and not available to us anyway lol.

He’s pretty clean over short/medium distance, but less accurate when kicking long and at full speed. I’d say he reminds me of Dangerfield in this regard, but I’d argue that Draper is a better user by foot.

 

[Soapy V]

I’ve read all the reports and watched the videos

IMO it’s still between.

FOS
Smith
Draper
Langford
Lalor
Smillie

I just see us getting Ashcroft

 

[Soapy V]

Assuming we have done due diligence on his injury - Austin just have to lock in Draper for the betterment of team balance.

We've been crying out for some more speed in the midfield -and Draper is a great answer.
Austin lock Draper in for #3 and let's get on with the rest of the draft then - Bring on 2025!

If the selection was purely on needs Draper looks the one.

Question is for Pick 3 do we go purely needs or simply the best player?

Love to be a fly on the wall for the discussions between Austin, Voss and the recruiting team and hear their true thoughts