- Mar 12, 2003
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There was a "strategy coach" who had a weekly segment on SEN a couple of years ago, before Brenton Sanderson got the gig. He reckoned that reducing interchange actually had a negative impact on scoring, as increased fatigue led to reduced skill level as you've alluded to.Living here in Brissy, get to watch a bit of NRL and have noticed over the years that the NRL has reduced the interchange in an attempt to balance the influence of the power athlete (mostly pacific islanders) with the smaller constructive type ball playing players, who can create opportunities when fatigue is a factor.
I don't want to see the AFL change too much, other than slightly reduce the interchange over the next couple of years. Don't know what the ideal number is, but perhaps 50-55. It annoys me when I see someone kick a goal, reasonably early in a game only to be subbed. Reducing the interchange means more fatigue, which IMO likely opens up the game, but arguably may impact on the overall skill level of the game?
This is a view not shared by most people, who hold the opinion that reducing interchanges will introduce more fatigue into the game, opening the game up more and leading to greater scoring opportunities.
(By the by, I'd suggest the data analysis in existence within the footy industry should already be at the level where it is possible to determine this, ie differentiate between actual scoring, and genuine scoring opportunities. This is what Richard Little has tried to do to an extent with his xScoreChain metric, which calculates the likely score based on where a possession chain starts. Expected score taken to the next level. It's quite brilliant and it would be good to see more of this stuff and in the mainstream.)
This is part of the reason I'd like to see the number of interchanges allowed linked to the number of goals kicked, by only allowing them to occur after a goal is kicked. If the masses are correct, and increased fatigue does indeed lead to more scoring opportunities AND more scoring, then we will see a natural equilibrium develop between the level of scoring and the level of interchanges.
On the other hand, if this "strategy coach" is correct, and increased interchanges actually lead to more scoring, then linking interchanges to goals as I've suggested would have a dramatic (positive) effect on scoring.