Autopsy 2024 Rd 21 Carlton vs Collingwood 3 point loss - is our season over?

[Just Kreuzing]

Play to the game plan down by 32, rip up the game plan and should have won.

Our kick in strategy is straight from the U’8s and destroys any chance we have.

Defending kick ins is just as bad, the coast to coast goal they gave up was embarrassing.

 

[Soapy V]

Biggest issues for me

Too many injury prone players
Very slow
Very poor skilled side across the park

We have serious list issues

 

[AB_Blue]

Defending kick ins is just as bad, the coast to coast goal they gave up was embarrassing.

X3

 

[DollarsandSense]

We are mentally week.
Expectations have dropped. Maybe just maybe we now click into gear………. #clutc#clutchingatstraws

 

[DangerousD]

Realistically, SOS built the list around the style that was winning premierships 5 years ago.

Some blame needs to go to Austin and co who have refused to pivot sufficiently enough in the years since SOS.

Some great additions to the list like Elijah and Acres but we've gone to the well and brought on too many duplicitous talent and who really don't offer sufficient point of difference.


So much so that when we have a healthy 22 we still question why a Hewett or a Kennedy is the sub. Imagine instead of putting best 22 contested mids as sub we actually had invested in speed or a quality third forward, KPD depth (freeing up Kemp), etc.

Overall list management has been mismanaged even though there is nothing inherently wrong with the specific players we've added. (I.e. good players but not what the 22 needs for winning football).

I support the idea list management has been bad but the style of winning a premiership 5 years ago was in the middle of the Tigers dominance, lots of pace, lots of small forwards, playing mids as a second ruck.

I didn’t see SOS building a team like that or even Austin for that matter.

I have a feeling Cook loves stability and continuity, if he didn’t Austin’s job would be under heat.

 

[DangerousD]

Every week, I swear I see opposition forwards finding space and getting marks or shots on goal in F50, then I see Charlie and Harry struggle to get any.

Something is wrong with them or something is wrong with the method.

 

[Soapy V]

Biggest issues for me

Too many injury prone players
Very slow
Very poor skilled side across the park

We have serious list issues

As for coaching. Reading a lot of unhappiness in here with Voss & Co

I don’t know if they are good or not but questions need to be asked around game plan, game day coaching, and ability to get the BEST out of our players

Do they believe our list is good enough or do they see major weaknesses and are trying to cover up holes in side?

 

[Styxx]

It shouldn't have had to been on Gov's shoulders to kick that to win. Feel bad for some of the crap he is copping on socials.

1.8 at quarter time, had we made that even 3.5 we should have been able to win, missing simple targets, picking the wrong target, those things have buried us for a while now.

 

[skadoosh]

One feel good moment was Weiters' centreing kick to Acres. It was the same kick Weiters pulled off in the semi vs Dees.

 

[BlueTongue]

No midfield speed, no decent kpd to help weiters, and no game breakers. I know it's hard to find them, but its been 4 or 5 years now since we shafted SOS.

Agree with you on the contracts. As you said, extensions for injury prone players, but also extensions for average footballers.

Dude, we only get a few picks and very limited genuine gettable targets to trade in. Austin has done well to directly address the lists needs with who he’s got in, but the list has had too many holes to fill. That, and the fact we’ve continually given out nonsense contracts to players who have filled in for a few good games then gone backwards like Young and Pitto.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Don't think Ollie is a bad player, but as far as wingers go he's not excellent speed wise. Can gut run, but top speed is just average.

the kid's been gifted a lot of games this year....

 

[MPH78]

Hope the club know what’s coming because we won’t stand for dumb, soft, slow, unskilled, tactically inept football.

Blown our best chance in a generation to seriously compete for #17 with some of the most inept football I’ve seen us play.

From 1.5 games clear in second to most likely missing the finals.

Completely and utterly unacceptable.

If Cook, Sayers, Williams and Lloyd aren’t eyeballing Voss ten times a day I’ll be ropeable. WTF are he and his coaches doing. During the week and on game day?

Leadership and accountability. Where is it?

 

[BlueTongue]

Biggest issues for me

Too many injury prone players
Very slow
Very poor skilled side across the park

We have serious list issues

I agree but I think speed issues are largely due to basic footskills and not hitting targets. If you move the ball fast by foot you don’t need to run the length of the field to get back and defend turnovers. We needs a massive clean out at end of year and try to trade in some fringe players who can cover the holes.

 

[Soapy V]

I agree but I think speed issues are largely due to basic footskills and not hitting targets. If you move the ball fast by foot you don’t need to run the length of the field to get back and defend turnovers.

100% Agree

Speed is leg speed AND ball use. We lack both

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

The stats mean **** all from tonight. I am not sure what Voss has said, but if anyone is circle jerking about us generating chances and winning more of the ball etc, they are lying to themselves and just trying to put a positive spin on things.

We were thoroughly outplayed for 3.5 quarters and lucky to be within striking distance at all.

that's rubbish.

We essentially dominated Q1 - just couldn't finish off (supported by terrible decision making).

Q2 and Q3 - just benign, energy less footy.

Q4 - signs of life - too little, too late.

Too many blokes - for whatever reason - injured, tired... just aren't putting in and/or executing to the required standard with ball in hand.

There was a lot of ball butchering last night.

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

It's not all doom and gloom. Really strange game that we should've won comfortably.

Dunno about that.

I thought we were well beaten for 3/4 of this game, would have been criminal to steal it after the siren.

 

[PumpyChowdown]

See you in 2025! Have a happy and safe off-season everyone.

 

[Styxx]

Season is salvageable. We aren't done yet.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Wieters playing at CHB is much more satisfying than seeing him stuck inside 20 trying to get match ups right….he took intercept after intercept and basically stopped Collingwood forward movement on his own

He just needs a solid running mate to play FB

Barrass or even Jeremy Guv...

 

[BlueTongue]

the kid's been gifted a lot of games this year....

I don’t agree. He gets games because he runs fis guts out every week, has good footskills and continually puts the ball to advantage, gives everything for the full 4/4.
Cottrell, Newman, Boyd, Motlop, Cerra, Cuners, Pitto, Young, have all been passengers in recent weeks. TBH I’m glad Cotters and Cerra are out injured, cos now George and Kennedy won’t be started as subs.

 

[GotBlueBalls]

Just watching the replay now. One thing I've been noticing with Walsh lately (besides getting caught holding the ball) is he seems to rush in with his tackles which results too often in high frees.
The ease at which teams are able to transition the ball is alarming, eg Q1 last night, Collingwood go end to end in a matter of seconds.
Based on current form hard to see us beating Hawthorn next week.
If we can't lock the ball in the forward line, teams just burn us on the rebound so in particular I think we get exposed playing against teams with more leg speed.
I don't think we use our own weapons to full potential - for example I'd like to see Saad be more offensive, use his run and carry and hit up Charlie or Harry on the lead or one on one in the forward line.

 

[BlueTongue]

Barrass or even Jeremy Guv...

I’d offer Martin and Carrol up without blinking to try and get one of them

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Hope the club know what’s coming because we won’t stand for dumb, soft, slow, unskilled, tactically inept football.

Blown our best chance in a generation to seriously compete for #17 with some of the most inept football I’ve seen us play.

From 1.5 games clear in second to most likely missing the finals.

Completely and utterly unacceptable.

If Cook, Sayers, Williams and Lloyd aren’t eyeballing Voss ten times a day I’ll be ropeable. WTF are he and his coaches doing. During the week and on game day?

Leadership and accountability. Where is it?

yep, pretty much all on the coaching crew.... and the match committee.

We have more than enough quality players....

It's just not happening between the ears!

 

[Soapy V]

Just watched replay.

The amount of times we turn it over, kick to opposition or just take the wrong options is a major concern

Our skills are very poor

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

The last three weeks represents some of the dumbest coaching I have ever witnessed. We've torched a 2 game break in second spot and now look likely to miss finals.

All season we have played a front half of the field game, based around winning the ball quickly at contests, belting it forward, keeping our players 1-v-1 and using a very high forward press to lock it in with multiple small forwards around the two bigs. We play endurance, defensive wings (Hollands/Cottrell/Acres) and rely on them to cover enormous amounts of ground without the ball. We have played a highly mobile backline with players who can interchange (Kemp/McGovern/Weitering/Newman) - and while they might give up size, it doesn't matter as long as we put on forward pressure and the ball isn't coming to their opponents advantage. The idea is to win territory, and if we do have to move the ball all our defenders are generally good kicks who can hit a target in the centre of the ground, then we handball and scramble it forward from there. We were the number one team for turnover differential, and when our midfield was pounding teams with big bodies (Cripps/Hewett/Kennedy) and had De Koning in form as almost an extra mid to help, we looked amazing. The risk with that style was if fast opponents got 'out the back', or if teams picked us apart with precision kicking and could exploit our smaller backline. Ok, but we were smashing everyone.

Some key measures here: vs Geelong (our last big win) we laid 22 tackles inside 50, and our small/medium forwards -Cincotta (playing as a defensive forward on Stewart), Fogarty, Owies, E Hollands, Williams and Fantasia laid 24 tackles.

Then the GWS game happened - TDK hurt his ankle early and got smashed around by Briggs, while not really being able to play that extra mid role. They have some of the best ball users in the league, picked our press apart, Hogan took some big marks on Kemp/McGovern, and we lost - by two goals, away, to a likely top 4 team. Big deal, right?

So the next week, Voss starts messing around. We play two rucks vs Bulldogs for the first time in eons, which means a resting ruck forward, and less forward pressure. This is compounded by playing an underdone Cottrell in a forward/wing role and an early injury to Williams (who had been great as a small forward). Oh, and we dropped Hewett - Mr Consistency and our best defensive mid - to bring in an underdone Cerra, play Kennedy as the sub so that Cincotta can play midfield... we still keep our same structure, but we're a bit all over the place, and in particular, they are able to move the ball deep to their big forwards. We lose by two goals, to a team that has subsequently smashed all comers, despite being off.

Two losses, some unusual circumstances, good opponents.

So the logical thing to do is to completely change the structure and play a loose man behind the ball, which we do the following week against North.

The problem with this is that our personnel are totally wrong for this. Doing this makes it much harder to put pressure up the ground - other teams can just simply run around our small forwards using their spare man. And with the current team, we struggle to move the ball. If you have a spare back, so does the other team, and so you can't just belt it up the middle to the big blokes - it'll get picked off. You have to spread the field, use your wings offensively, and have multiple marking and leading targets to play through. But we don't. Our wings are defensive and have shaky disposal - particularly given Acres got injured so it was Cottrell/Hollands. None of our small forwards are leading/marking targets. If Charlie/Harry come up the ground to help move the ball then there is no-one to kick to. If we blaze long Charlie/Harry have to play 1vs2 (or even 3 in the air).

So we narrowly beat North, but look unconvincing. Then we try the same thing against Port, and it also doesn't work. We hold Port to 79 points but kick our lowest score for the year. Obviously missing McKay and TDK for this makes it harder.

And then playing Collingwood we do the same again, allowing Howe and Moore (who had been horribly out of form) to play 2v1 vs our tall forwards. I can't remember us sitting back so deep and having to hold out like that all season - but this is a particularly negative game plan against the team in 11th spot. We manage 6 goals in three quarters and find ourselves 5 goals behind. When we do go forward, we're either turning it over trying to find outnumbered targets, or taking long range, low percentage shots at goal. In the last quarter, we go back to our original style, match them for numbers around the ground and stage a comeback, ultimately having a shot to win. The recipe was there all along - we just took too long to get back to what has worked for us so well.

Back to those key measures: at 3/4 time last night we had 1 tackle inside 50, and Fogarty/Cottrell/Owies/Motlop/Martin had combined for 2 tackles total. There's the game right there - complete lack of ability to put on forward pressure. In the last quarter we manage 7 tackles inside 50, and our small forwards contribute 4 of those.

The key thing for me is that there is still hope. If we go back to what we were doing - big bodied midfield, forward pressure focus - we should still rally and make finals. Voss has shown the abiltiy to respond and in particular, keep morale up and get players performing well with their backs against the wall, so hopefully this can be turned around.

I love this, really well written and all inclusive and didn't mention how diabolical we are at defending stoppages either. All of those issues and it's not even 'half of it'.