Autopsy 2024 Rd 21 Carlton vs Collingwood 3 point loss - is our season over?

[TheReal99prelim]

Why the **** was Kennedy sub?????

Here's a simple idea (and IDGAF about exact like for like bs)

Walsh to the wing, even rotating HF
Kennedy on the ball
One of O Hollands or Cotterel sub

The most arrogant and stubborn coaching group going around

 

[RAPPA]

I like staunch opinions, either side of the ledger, whether I agree or not with someone's views

What I find funny are those that flip quicker than my burger guy

This season isn't over, by a long way. We will make finals, beyond that it's too early to tell

Every side has had, these so called issues, during the year.

Overall, as a season to date, we are within what the range I thought we were capable of achieving

Looking at the run home, it very well may come down to the last game vs the Saints to decide whether we make the 8. We are somewhat lucky with teams around us playing each other in the final few rounds. That said, there’s a lot going wrong that won’t be rectified simply by having TDK and Williams back. Making finals and potentially winning an elimination final just seems a waste from where we were at a month ago. I dunno Arrow.

Like the plethora of supporters on here, it’s an exhausting and frustrating ride with this mob. We’ll never stop supporting but it’s such a deeper pain when the hope that was instilled earlier on in the year and off the back of last year, evaporates.

 

[berisha]

So did Voss say anything useful at all in his presser or just more oblivious positive spin?

 

[Sharks On A Plane]

For mine, the most inexplicable part about the way we are playing is the lack of aerial competition once we inevitably decide to kick the ball long down the line.

Like, everyone knows the ball is going there, yet our talls get edged under the ball, don't even go up, fall over, drop the mark: anything but actually mark the ball or even split the contest to advantage.

Ludicrous shit play.

 

[Moon]

Some think losing 4 of your last 5 games heading into finals is nothing to be concerned about.

Don't worry ... all going fine. I am not one of those people. I call it 'Wheels have fallen off' ... like Es.......n.

 

[bigblueboy]

I like staunch opinions, either side of the ledger, whether I agree or not with someone's views

What I find funny are those that flip quicker than my burger guy

This season isn't over, by a long way. We will make finals, beyond that it's too early to tell

Every side has had, these so called issues, during the year.

Overall, as a season to date, we are within what the range I thought we were capable of achieving

I agree that seasons not over … but we’ve given up a huge opportunity to finish top 2/4 and best position ourselves to win a flag.
Whatever we thought we were capable of delivering, our best has proven this year to be capable of contending.
Can totally understand supporters feeling frustration because we might not get a chance as good as this one.

 

[Soapy V]

Some think losing 4 of your last 5 games heading into finals is nothing to be concerned about.

Don't worry ... all going fine. I am not one of those people. I call it 'Wheels have fallen off ... like Essendon.

I have always tried to see where we will get it right.

Issue we have is that we really haven’t played well all year. We have had patches of form but I can’t even remember a good 4 quarter effort

Sadly, for me the evidence is mounting and time is short and we will be lucky to have TDK & Cerra for finals and we need them and at their best

 

[Arr0w]

I agree that seasons not over … but we’ve given up a huge opportunity to finish top 2/4 and best position ourselves to win a flag.
Whatever we thought we were capable of delivering, our best has proven this year to be capable of contending.
Can totally understand supporters feeling frustration because we might not get a chance as good as this one.

Every supporter would be frustrated. Certainly going to be difficult finishing outside the top 3

Our list has some holes, but we still have a strong core to continue to tweak

I wouldn't be giving up on this season just yet

 

[blues4flag]

The last three weeks represents some of the dumbest coaching I have ever witnessed. We've torched a 2 game break in second spot and now look likely to miss finals.

All season we have played a front half of the field game, based around winning the ball quickly at contests, belting it forward, keeping our players 1-v-1 and using a very high forward press to lock it in with multiple small forwards around the two bigs. We play endurance, defensive wings (Hollands/Cottrell/Acres) and rely on them to cover enormous amounts of ground without the ball. We have played a highly mobile backline with players who can interchange (Kemp/McGovern/Weitering/Newman) - and while they might give up size, it doesn't matter as long as we put on forward pressure and the ball isn't coming to their opponents advantage. The idea is to win territory, and if we do have to move the ball all our defenders are generally good kicks who can hit a target in the centre of the ground, then we handball and scramble it forward from there. We were the number one team for turnover differential, and when our midfield was pounding teams with big bodies (Cripps/Hewett/Kennedy) and had De Koning in form as almost an extra mid to help, we looked amazing. The risk with that style was if fast opponents got 'out the back', or if teams picked us apart with precision kicking and could exploit our smaller backline. Ok, but we were smashing everyone.

Some key measures here: vs Geelong (our last big win) we laid 22 tackles inside 50, and our small/medium forwards -Cincotta (playing as a defensive forward on Stewart), Fogarty, Owies, E Hollands, Williams and Fantasia laid 24 tackles.

Then the GWS game happened - TDK hurt his ankle early and got smashed around by Briggs, while not really being able to play that extra mid role. They have some of the best ball users in the league, picked our press apart, Hogan took some big marks on Kemp/McGovern, and we lost - by two goals, away, to a likely top 4 team. Big deal, right?

So the next week, Voss starts messing around. We play two rucks vs Bulldogs for the first time in eons, which means a resting ruck forward, and less forward pressure. This is compounded by playing an underdone Cottrell in a forward/wing role and an early injury to Williams (who had been great as a small forward). Oh, and we dropped Hewett - Mr Consistency and our best defensive mid - to bring in an underdone Cerra, play Kennedy as the sub so that Cincotta can play midfield... we still keep our same structure, but we're a bit all over the place, and in particular, they are able to move the ball deep to their big forwards. We lose by two goals, to a team that has subsequently smashed all comers, despite being off.

Two losses, some unusual circumstances, good opponents.

So the logical thing to do is to completely change the structure and play a loose man behind the ball, which we do the following week against North.

The problem with this is that our personnel are totally wrong for this. Doing this makes it much harder to put pressure up the ground - other teams can just simply run around our small forwards using their spare man. And with the current team, we struggle to move the ball. If you have a spare back, so does the other team, and so you can't just belt it up the middle to the big blokes - it'll get picked off. You have to spread the field, use your wings offensively, and have multiple marking and leading targets to play through. But we don't. Our wings are defensive and have shaky disposal - particularly given Acres got injured so it was Cottrell/Hollands. None of our small forwards are leading/marking targets. If Charlie/Harry come up the ground to help move the ball then there is no-one to kick to. If we blaze long Charlie/Harry have to play 1vs2 (or even 3 in the air).

So we narrowly beat North, but look unconvincing. Then we try the same thing against Port, and it also doesn't work. We hold Port to 79 points but kick our lowest score for the year. Obviously missing McKay and TDK for this makes it harder.

And then playing Collingwood we do the same again, allowing Howe and Moore (who had been horribly out of form) to play 2v1 vs our tall forwards. I can't remember us sitting back so deep and having to hold out like that all season - but this is a particularly negative game plan against the team in 11th spot. We manage 6 goals in three quarters and find ourselves 5 goals behind. When we do go forward, we're either turning it over trying to find outnumbered targets, or taking long range, low percentage shots at goal. In the last quarter, we go back to our original style, match them for numbers around the ground and stage a comeback, ultimately having a shot to win. The recipe was there all along - we just took too long to get back to what has worked for us so well.

Back to those key measures: at 3/4 time last night we had 1 tackle inside 50, and Fogarty/Cottrell/Owies/Motlop/Martin had combined for 2 tackles total. There's the game right there - complete lack of ability to put on forward pressure. In the last quarter we manage 7 tackles inside 50, and our small forwards contribute 4 of those.

The key thing for me is that there is still hope. If we go back to what we were doing - big bodied midfield, forward pressure focus - we should still rally and make finals. Voss has shown the abiltiy to respond and in particular, keep morale up and get players performing well with their backs against the wall, so hopefully this can be turned around.

Great post. Though I see it slightly differently - us playing a forward half territory game (which is absolutely the best version of us) is contingent on midfield dominance, and we were getting smashed in there for weeks on end.

The opposition know it, and each week they come in the game fired up to ensure our midfield doesn't get on top.

Last quarter the midfield stepped up and dominated and we saw the best of Carlton. Absolutely brutal through the middle, put pressure on their defence, defenders press up high and take intercept after intercept, repeat entries. That was Carlton post Curnow camp 2023. We've barely seen it all year.

Been waiting weeks for us to flick the switch but we've left it too late.

 

[Pablito]

Dunno about that.

I thought we were well beaten for 3/4 of this game, would have been criminal to steal it after the siren.

True that we were beaten for 3/4.

But we should've won based on the fact we had more scoring shots and just didn't take our opportunities. Lost 2 players mid game and still ran over the top of them.

It was a brave albeit frustrating performance in the end.

 

[Kruezing]

For mine, the most inexplicable part about the way we are playing is the lack of aerial competition once we inevitably decide to kick the ball long down the line.

Like, everyone knows the ball is going there, yet our talls get edged under the ball, don't even go up, fall over, drop the mark: anything but actually mark the ball or even split the contest to advantage.

Ludicrous shit play.

We’re lacking a presence around the ground to help out H … it’s called a ruckman … unfortunately the beast we have is injured

 

[blues4flag]

For mine, the most inexplicable part about the way we are playing is the lack of aerial competition once we inevitably decide to kick the ball long down the line.

Like, everyone knows the ball is going there, yet our talls get edged under the ball, don't even go up, fall over, drop the mark: anything but actually mark the ball or even split the contest to advantage.

Ludicrous shit play.

A million times this. It's obvious instruction was to not play long down the line - we went short every time in the first.

Unfortunately Collingwood's zone was so good and our lack of dare and footskills so bad that we defaulted to the long kick down the line.

I can't believe how bad we are at that phase of the game. Fair enough to instruct the players not to do it, but where's the caveat?

"Don't to long down the line...but when we eventually get forced into it as we do every bloody week, make sure you compete in the air and get numbers to the drop".

It's lunacy. Fingers in ears, screaming at top of the lungs insanity. The amount of times Howe ran in from 20 metres away to intercept the long kick down the line was sickening.

 

[TheReal99prelim]

Right now, I'd give Young the ruck duties over Pitto

And I'd bring in Lord to cover Cerra

And Binns to cover Cotterel

But hey, let's go with Carroll and Fantasia as we expect

 

[Pablito]

For mine, the most inexplicable part about the way we are playing is the lack of aerial competition once we inevitably decide to kick the ball long down the line.

Like, everyone knows the ball is going there, yet our talls get edged under the ball, don't even go up, fall over, drop the mark: anything but actually mark the ball or even split the contest to advantage.

Ludicrous shit play.

We’re lacking a presence around the ground to help out H … it’s called a ruckman … unfortunately the beast we have is injured

A million times this. It's obvious instruction was to not play long down the line - we went short every time in the first.

Unfortunately Collingwood's zone was so good and our lack of dare and footskills so bad that we defaulted to the long kick down the line.

I can't believe how bad we are at that phase of the game. Fair enough to instruct the players not to do it, but where's the caveat?

"Don't to long down the line...but when we eventually get forced into it as we do every bloody week, make sure you compete in the air and get numbers to the drop".

It's lunacy. Fingers in ears, screaming at top of the lungs insanity. The amount of times Howe ran in from 20 metres away to intercept the long kick down the line was sickening.

To see Pittonet not even make it to the drop of the ball to compete 9/10 times was the most scary part.

He's gone from being an average ruckman to being one of the worst in the competition in less than 12 months.

 

[Sharks On A Plane]

We won a couple of games last year (by about 10 goals from memory) with Young as the primary ruck (SOS as relief).

Agree that he can't be any worse than Pitto, and at the very least can be deployed back or forward if required.

 

[blues4flag]

To see Pittonet not even make it to the drop of the ball to compete 9/10 times was the most scary part.

He's gone from being an average ruckman to being one of the worst in the competition in less than 12 months.

His first 3 quarters were putrid. Lifted in the last, which probably makes it worse.

Probably cost us the game with his ineptitude over those 3 quarters. What happened to Strength?

 

[JustaBattler]

The game was lost because of poor kicking - and the last kick just confirmed the message.

The only near-perfect game the team has played was the second against Geelong.

I made the comment/asked teh question during the game in the 4th quarter why haven't they played like this all game?

Well to answer my own question these things happened.


1. cerra came off conforming our worst fears his hamstring issues are now structural and likely to be there forever an dhe was replaced by Kennedy who played a blinder.

2. DeGOey cam off for them and Carlton started winning CBB and clearances.

3. Collingwood ran out of legs.

All of a sudden Collingwood were eon teh back foot and Carlton came back from a 35 points down to should have won the game if McGovern had just given the ball to Martin who was asking him the question.

Havent liked the midfield set up since Voss decided that Hewett and Kennedy were not required to play together and teh midfield set up hasn't worked since he decided that- funny thing is when these bog slow blokes are actually on teh field together=- the team plays better. ( DOH)

As for coaching - I rolled my eyes when the best the Club could do was sign on the forwards coach who had never coached forwards before..

Charlie being double-teamed and Harry being useless all game didn't help. but neither did umpire #23 giving them 3 goals but neither did Charlie/harry and Motlop missing sitters. Carlton applied ZERO score board pressure on Collingwood because kicking was really bad

Now that might speak more to the team's deficiencies ( mental) than anything else.

Season isnt over btw.

I'm glad Cerra and Cottrell issues have been settled- sorry they are injured- but at least it puts an end to the fair why questions being asked and get them fit experimentation.

Disagree totally withteh criticisms O Holands is copping- he was one Carlton's best last night as he was last week. Mroe of a concern is in muy mind is his brother who seems to lack teh endurance of Ollie and has about the same leg speed as Kennedy and Hewett - if people think he is going to be a gun on baller. they better look elsewhere.

Very frustrating loss after a magnificent comeback - that missed duffed kick was inexcusable for a bloke that is supposed to be one of the better kiks he was rubbing his head-a DNS should have stayed down and handed off to Martin - who definatey would have kicked it.

 

[Sharks On A Plane]

Would appreciate it if Voss would start showing Matt Kennedy some basic respect. One of our best players no matter whatever ridiculous role he is assigned, perhaps it's time to just accept he is a key part of our midfield?

 

[Sweet Seventeen]

Play dumb or have dumb footballers. The more I watch this year the more I believe we have many many average or flaky players in our side

IMO only Cripps & Weitering, maybe Acres, can hold their heads up as performing EVERY time it gets tough

I would add Fog to that list. If every Carlton player, played with the ticker and desire that little Lochie does. Then their is now way on earth, that we lose that game last night.

 

[Dunna Heartknee]

True that we were beaten for 3/4.

But we should've won based on the fact we had more scoring shots and just didn't take our opportunities. Lost 2 players mid game and still and ran over the top of them.

It was a brave albeit frustrating performance in the end.

I'm extremely buoyed by the way we finished, it actually felt like we turned the corner.
Our season is no way near over, It feels like just beginning.

 

[BringFevBack2021]

I would add Fog to that list. If every Carlton player, played with the ticker and desire that little Lochie does. Then their is now way on earth, that we lose that game last night.

I often wonder what someone like Fog would be like if he were in the body of Charlie or even the body of someone like Honey

Imagine those footy smarts inside a freak athlete, the potential would be incredible

That’s what champions are I suppose, Bont, Cripps, Daicos etc. all have some freak attributes and all have enormous footy smarts

We desperately need a small who can crumb, Williams was huge for that - Motlop lacks the smarts I fear

 

[Blue4Life]

cox is a better kick for goal than curnow and McKay…for a guy that was born in the USA he has more football smarts than both of them combined…was he born with it or is he better coached?

 

[T2B_]

Would appreciate it if Voss would start showing Matt Kennedy some basic respect. One of our best players no matter whatever ridiculous role he is assigned, perhaps it's time to just accept he is a key part of our midfield?

Million times this. I won't hear the usual thing about footspeed etc, we're lacking that whatever mix we play, but this man is a genuine all round footballer.

 

[BlueBayou]

You do realise the Pies had a few posters too right?

We lost because:

1) We were stupidly taking shots from the arc in the first quarter, leading to so many wasted opportunities and behinds
2) We kicked very inaccurately at goal for majority of the night
3) We played safe, precautionary football in the 2nd and 3rd quarter
4) So many dumb decisions being made (Ollie trying to pinpoint a pass to Gov who was surrounded by 3 Pies, Walsh on a multitude of occasions etc)
4) We left our decision to play daring football too late
5) Harry and Charlie combined couldn't even kick 1 goal from an i50 mark
6) Pitto being as useful as pockets on a singlet

I don't remember the pies 'few posters', so no.
I remember 1.8 in the first qtr when we should have wrapped the game up, such was the field dominance.
I remember them getting 3-5 goals from dubious umpiring.
I remember them being able to throw rugby passes over their heads and not get pinged for a throw. (my pet hate)
I remember Jesse M missing from the goal square.
I remember H and C not kicking a goal between them. Despite Chas being scragged and blocked all game.
I remember Charlie being triple teamed, yet we still kicked the thing to him.
I remember we were a man down for 1/2 of the game after Cerra did his hammy (that they apparently knew was dodgy)

Yep we did some dumb things, like starting Kennedy as the sub, and playing Cerra at half back, and not using either Cotts or Cinc to blanket Ndaks or Pendles. Yes Pitto is not much more than a witches hat once the ball is out of the centre circle, but what other options are there? Other dumb things like dinky passes from FB that get intercepted. or pushing defenders so far up the ground, they get over the top, walk in goals without breaking a sweat.

I remember that despite all the doom sayers, we lost by one errant kick.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I have always tried to see where we will get it right.

Issue we have is that we really haven’t played well all year. We have had patches of form but I can’t even remember a good 4 quarter effort

Sadly, for me the evidence is mounting and time is short and we will be lucky to have TDK & Cerra for finals and we need them and at their best

4 quarter effort is a myth mate... even when the Swans were winning, they were still starting very poorly... terrible first quarters in fact...

We need to execute to a high standard for longer than we have been. Two quarters like the 4th last night, we win by 3-4 goals...

We have really only been shining for 1 quarter or 1.5 in the last 5 games.