Trades 2024 Round 2 Trades

[GenuineMatchWinner]

Used to subscribe to this but the theory has been debunked time and time again.

As a example - Bulldogs in 2021; Dunks, Bont, Macrae, Libba, Caleb, Dale - all top 30 in the league for SC, all averaged 90+

Don't disagree that it's possible to have multiple players all going well at once and it has been proven that you can get a speed of them from the one group but it does reach a point where there is a drop off.

From your example it marries up quite well with the list I gave in my original post, the question is what was the drop away to the next batch of players in that side, that is the most likely outcome for Billings IMO and needs to be budgeted for accordingly.

For what it's worth, I see Billings as a really solid option this week and should make his owners some decent bank and hopefully reasonable scores. I am weighing him up as one of my trades, just my point of view on the situation.

 

[Silky23]

Thinking I should boost, but also don't want to as it feels like a waste doing one immediately. However, Gibcus + Reid out early hurts.

OUT: Gibcus, Lyons, Lazzarro
IN: D'Ambrosio, Billings, T Berry

Next week will target Hore/Pink down back and Dempsey in the forwards.

 

[DT_35]

Thinking I should boost, but also don't want to as it feels like a waste doing one immediately. However, Gibcus + Reid out early hurts.

OUT: Gibcus, Lyons, Lazzarro
IN: D'Ambrosio, Billings, T Berry

Next week will target Hore/Pink down back and Dempsey in the forwards.

View attachment 1935229

Lyons out? HUH?

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Thinking I should boost, but also don't want to as it feels like a waste doing one immediately. However, Gibcus + Reid out early hurts.

OUT: Gibcus, Lyons, Lazzarro
IN: D'Ambrosio, Billings, T Berry

Next week will target Hore/Pink down back and Dempsey in the forwards.

View attachment 1935229

Lyons has a breakeven of -44 and is very likely to rise over $50K next week, whilst probably scoring more than the players you are looking to bring in. Found someone else to trade IMO (or just wait an extra week on Massimo)

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Lots of people going early Mass.....

 

[Lord De Goey]

Lots of people going early Mass.....

View attachment 1935436

I can’t decide if I should boost to get him in. He scores 40-50 and he won’t even be best 18. But it does give me an extra trade to play around with next week

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Lots of people going early Mass.....

View attachment 1935436

It obviously makes some sense. Even if his score is never repeated again, most of us have 2 dead rookies in the backline and very few trade options. Most of the others available are key defenders who are the poorest scorers in the comp. Next week is already the biggest rookie correction week of the year so going early gives you 1 more trade option next week. I personally am waiting a week given the 18 scorers, other players to address and preferring to see 2 games from each of the rookies.

 

[evo]

Lyons has a breakeven of -44 and is very likely to rise over $50K next week, whilst probably scoring more than the players you are looking to bring in. Found someone else to trade IMO (or just wait an extra week on Massimo)

I really like Lyons game, bit of a plodder but knows how to find the pill if he continues to get midfield time.
Very happy i started him, no way i d trade him this early.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

I can’t decide if I should boost to get him in. He scores 40-50 and he won’t even be best 18. But it does give me an extra trade to play around with next week

Scoring 50 isn't the biggest worry it's pulling a hammy and missing 3-4 weeks so you have to trade him out and don't even get a price rise.

 

[54Dogs]

I really like Lyons game, bit of a plodder but knows how to find the pill if he continues to get midfield time.
Very happy i started him, no way i d trade him this early.

He's right on the edge with Neale returning. Will score if he plays but a big sub risk as he was many times last yr. Dev Robertson was pretty poor so he may hold for next week. Lions play first next week so will know early if he's named and sub

 

[Guardian Hawk]

He's right on the edge with Neale returning. Will score if he plays but a big sub risk as he was many times last yr. Dev Robertson was pretty poor so he may hold for next week. Lions play first next week so will know early if he's named and sub

Yes, the risk remains but with a BE of -44, it doesn't really matter. You ride the 1-2 price rises first and then trade him out. The longer he avoids he vest, the more money he makes and the longer you keep him before upgrading to a real premo.

 

[evo]

He's right on the edge with Neale returning. Will score if he plays but a big sub risk as he was many times last yr. Dev Robertson was pretty poor so he may hold for next week. Lions play first next week so will know early if he's named and sub

Point taken.

Hes had two good games by my eye. Surely worst case scenario is Fagan jist puts him to permanent hff again?

 

[54Dogs]

Yes, the risk remains but with a BE of -44, it doesn't really matter. You ride the 1-2 price rises first and then trade him out. The longer he avoids he vest, the more money he makes and the longer you keep him before upgrading to a real premo.

Yep I've got him and hoping for a couple more weeks. Even if he's sub next week I'll hold and bench him to take the price rise. Playing first is handy

 

[Consolaçao]

Yeah this was my thinking too but Fisher is setup to burn all the sellers this week it feels like

Would be classic SC! so holding and if he fails again just go straight to McKay

As a Fisher seller (a fishermonger?) i hope you’re wrong.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

OK, so after preaching conservative, sensible trades, I'm looking for advice on how to do the exact opposite.

I'm pretty committed to trading Fisher to Heeney and want help to find the $95K or so I need (as I only have $11K in the bank).

This is the team...




Options:
Option 1: Amon to T.Berry, Fisher to Heeney ($266K ITB to upgrade Gibcus to Mass next week and fix other rookies) - I actually like the Amon pick - he averaged 107 when moved to the backline at the end of last year and scored 89 week 1 with very little kick in opportunities due to Essendon's accuracy. But he will probably only average 95-100 (so not a MUST have) and I suspect there will be a number of backline premiums available to us throughout the year.
Option 2: Bontempelli to Serong/Green, Fisher to Heeney - OK, so I know this sounds crazy/sideways/point chasing. I know Bont will remain a good pick and you don't waste trades doing sideways moves of premium players that are not injured. But, as I was saying preseason, Bont has averaged 116-120 every other year besides last season and premium prices converge down as rookies increase in value so I am certain he will be available for $100K cheaper later. Confident the likes of Green can match him for 100K less, allowing me to get in Heeney and I can roughie Bont back in later for less.
Option 3: Jordon to T.Berry, Fisher to Heeney - In some ways, this feels more comfortable but Jordon is averaging in the 80's for less than $280K and obviously has some money to make. I'm paying 480K for Amon for example, who also scored in the 80's. However, Footywire also suggests that he will only make about $50-$60K over the next 3 weeks but I'm not sure if they are basing that on continuing to score 80's or something less? If only $60 odd thousand to be made (and not a keeper), that is justifiable to me.

(Had hoped to do Z.Williams to Hore instead but am about $1K short)

So, which option do you like best (or can you see another way to find $90K ish)??

Thanks all.

 

[iDon]

Going to no trade and miss Heeney.

Backing in Yeo which could be a silly move but thought it was alright on the weekend

 

[Petrify]

Used to subscribe to this but the theory has been debunked time and time again.

As a example - Bulldogs in 2021; Dunks, Bont, Macrae, Libba, Caleb, Dale - all top 30 in the league for SC, all averaged 90+

Only need to look at Gold Coast so far this year. All the mids sharing it around and scoring big

 

[Daniel_Rich]

Point taken.

Hes had two good games by my eye. Surely worst case scenario is Fagan jist puts him to permanent hff again?

I have Lyons in my side based on the facts that: 1) he knows how to score, and 2) Fagan loves to back in his favourites and he seems to like Lyons. But truth be told he's a defensive liability and IMO should make way for Neale. In contrast, Dev is very solid defensively.

It's going to be an all or nothing pick, he's either playing and scoring tons or out of the side. Tonned the first week and scored 79 in 3 quarters last week after Fyfe cleaned him up costing him 10 minutes on the bench and spending the next 10 shadowing Serong to close out the first quarter on 2.

 

[Ken Tea]

OK, so after preaching conservative, sensible trades, I'm looking for advice on how to do the exact opposite.

I'm pretty committed to trading Fisher to Heeney and want help to find the $95K or so I need (as I only have $11K in the bank).

This is the team...

View attachment 1935465
View attachment 1935466

Options:
Option 1: Amon to T.Berry, Fisher to Heeney ($266K ITB to upgrade Gibcus to Mass next week and fix other rookies) - I actually like the Amon pick - he averaged 107 when moved to the backline at the end of last year and scored 89 week 1 with very little kick in opportunities due to Essendon's accuracy. But he will probably only average 95-100 (so not a MUST have) and I suspect there will be a number of backline premiums available to us throughout the year.
Option 2: Bontempelli to Serong/Green, Fisher to Heeney - OK, so I know this sounds crazy/sideways/point chasing. I know Bont will remain a good pick and you don't waste trades doing sideways moves of premium players that are not injured. But, as I was saying preseason, Bont has averaged 116-120 every other year besides last season and premium prices converge down as rookies increase in value so I am certain he will be available for $100K cheaper later. Confident the likes of Green can match him for 100K less, allowing me to get in Heeney and I can roughie Bont back in later for less.
Option 3: Jordon to T.Berry, Fisher to Heeney - In some ways, this feels more comfortable but Jordon is averaging in the 80's for less than $280K and obviously has some money to make. I'm paying 480K for Amon for example, who also scored in the 80's. However, Footywire also suggests that he will only make about $50-$60K over the next 3 weeks but I'm not sure if they are basing that on continuing to score 80's or something less? If only $60 odd thousand to be made (and not a keeper), that is justifiable to me.

(Had hoped to do Z.Williams to Hore instead but am about $1K short)

So, which option do you like best (or can you see another way to find $90K ish)??

Thanks all.

Bont > Green, doesn't mess with your starting team that you picked which is a very nice team by the way.

 

[Lord De Goey]

OK, so after preaching conservative, sensible trades, I'm looking for advice on how to do the exact opposite.

I'm pretty committed to trading Fisher to Heeney and want help to find the $95K or so I need (as I only have $11K in the bank).

This is the team...

View attachment 1935465
View attachment 1935466

Options:
Option 1: Amon to T.Berry, Fisher to Heeney ($266K ITB to upgrade Gibcus to Mass next week and fix other rookies) - I actually like the Amon pick - he averaged 107 when moved to the backline at the end of last year and scored 89 week 1 with very little kick in opportunities due to Essendon's accuracy. But he will probably only average 95-100 (so not a MUST have) and I suspect there will be a number of backline premiums available to us throughout the year.
Option 2: Bontempelli to Serong/Green, Fisher to Heeney - OK, so I know this sounds crazy/sideways/point chasing. I know Bont will remain a good pick and you don't waste trades doing sideways moves of premium players that are not injured. But, as I was saying preseason, Bont has averaged 116-120 every other year besides last season and premium prices converge down as rookies increase in value so I am certain he will be available for $100K cheaper later. Confident the likes of Green can match him for 100K less, allowing me to get in Heeney and I can roughie Bont back in later for less.
Option 3: Jordon to T.Berry, Fisher to Heeney - In some ways, this feels more comfortable but Jordon is averaging in the 80's for less than $280K and obviously has some money to make. I'm paying 480K for Amon for example, who also scored in the 80's. However, Footywire also suggests that he will only make about $50-$60K over the next 3 weeks but I'm not sure if they are basing that on continuing to score 80's or something less? If only $60 odd thousand to be made (and not a keeper), that is justifiable to me.

(Had hoped to do Z.Williams to Hore instead but am about $1K short)

So, which option do you like best (or can you see another way to find $90K ish)??

Thanks all.

Amon to Mckercher
Fisher to Heeney
Can you also afford Campbell to Billings?

 

[Bob Butter]

OK, so after preaching conservative, sensible trades, I'm looking for advice on how to do the exact opposite.

I'm pretty committed to trading Fisher to Heeney and want help to find the $95K or so I need (as I only have $11K in the bank).

This is the team...

View attachment 1935465
View attachment 1935466

Options:
Option 1: Amon to T.Berry, Fisher to Heeney ($266K ITB to upgrade Gibcus to Mass next week and fix other rookies) - I actually like the Amon pick - he averaged 107 when moved to the backline at the end of last year and scored 89 week 1 with very little kick in opportunities due to Essendon's accuracy. But he will probably only average 95-100 (so not a MUST have) and I suspect there will be a number of backline premiums available to us throughout the year.
Option 2: Bontempelli to Serong/Green, Fisher to Heeney - OK, so I know this sounds crazy/sideways/point chasing. I know Bont will remain a good pick and you don't waste trades doing sideways moves of premium players that are not injured. But, as I was saying preseason, Bont has averaged 116-120 every other year besides last season and premium prices converge down as rookies increase in value so I am certain he will be available for $100K cheaper later. Confident the likes of Green can match him for 100K less, allowing me to get in Heeney and I can roughie Bont back in later for less.
Option 3: Jordon to T.Berry, Fisher to Heeney - In some ways, this feels more comfortable but Jordon is averaging in the 80's for less than $280K and obviously has some money to make. I'm paying 480K for Amon for example, who also scored in the 80's. However, Footywire also suggests that he will only make about $50-$60K over the next 3 weeks but I'm not sure if they are basing that on continuing to score 80's or something less? If only $60 odd thousand to be made (and not a keeper), that is justifiable to me.

(Had hoped to do Z.Williams to Hore instead but am about $1K short)

So, which option do you like best (or can you see another way to find $90K ish)??

Thanks all.

Why not just straight swap Amon for Heeney and give Fisher another week? At this point it is safe to assume Heeney will be a top 6 forward (if not the clear number 1), but it is doubtful Amon will be even a top 10 defender.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Amon to Mckercher
Fisher to Heeney
Can you also afford Campbell to Billings?

A good option and yes, can also afford Campbell to Billings.

Although not sure if I should use a boost in the first week, especially to trade out Campbell, whose break even is -32 and is expected to go up $30K (Billings BE is 5 and expected to go up about the same but will obviously score higher). Definately will consider but not sure if it is worth waiting until next week, let Campbell rise, get another look at Billings and reassess (as the 11 will then drop out of his average) giving a chance to look at options like Dempsey who played so well in week 1?

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Why not just straight swap Amon for Heeney and give Fisher another week? At this point it is safe to assume Heeney will be a top 6 forward (if not the clear number 1), but it is doubtful Amon will be even a top 10 defender.

Haha, 3 replies and 3 different ideas. This definately has merit too, especially saving a trade. Fisher did still get 21 disposals and have 7 clangers (never averaging more than 3 before), so he may bounce back and make a lot of people look silly! I suppose I'm trigger happy with Fisher as I didn't like the pick but figured I must be wrong as basically everyone was picking him and I hadn't seen North play at all (plus limited forward options). (I didn't originally like the pick as his highest ever career average is 74 which is not enough to make money and not enough for a keeper, plus injury prone but his stats in R1, beside the unusual amount of clangers, do look alright).

Perhaps I should go and watch the North replay given I'm looking to punt Fisher, I have Sheezel and the above recommendation is to get McKercher, all 3 of whom arguably play a similar position for the same side (which I haven't seen play this year at all).

 

[JT_the_Man]

Fisher/Lazarro > T Berry

Then a debate. Just hold Gibcus/Reid and miss out on Heeney, or go early on Mass and boot Martin… Obviously holding could open me up to massive carnage next week.

 

[SC fish]

Fisher/Lazarro > T Berry

Then a debate. Just hold Gibcus/Reid and miss out on Heeney, or go early on Mass and boot Martin… Obviously holding could open me up to massive carnage next week.

I'm doing similar have decided to trade Martin for Heeney, but holding off on Gibcus and Reid and replace them next week with the best two of Massimo/Pink/Hore/KDawson