AFLW 2024 Season Prediction

[CrowdedHouse]

Since the fixture is now live, let's have the fun of our first impression tipping and seeing how the ladder (at the end of the Home and Away season) shapes out for you.

This is what I ended up with...

1st. North Melbourne Tasmanian Kangaroos 10-1 -> Will be stung be last year's GF loss and go on the rampage
2nd. Melbourne 10-1 -> Just consistently thereabouts, and I think they'll be in the Top 4 again.
3rd. Adelaide Crows 9-2 -> Like Melbourne, always thereabouts.
4th. Richmond 9-2 -> The big improvers. Injuries smashed them last year, but they always put in a show. Their year to push for the Top 4.
5th. Gold Coast 8-3 -> Growing very nicely, and will be hard to beat up in Qld.
6th. Geelong 7-4 -> I'm tipping a sluggish start, but to pick up steam at the business end.
7th. Brisbane 6-5 -> Bit like last year. Good team that will drop a game or two at times when they shouldn't. Still a threat, but inconsistent.
8th. Sydney 6-5 -> Draw is harder than last year, but with some injured talent coming back, should be enough to hold their spot in the top 8.

9th. St. Kilda 6-5 -> Might look an even better side than last year, but will just fall short on percentage. Probably lose a coin flip game or two.
10th. Collingwood 4-7 -> More of the same old, same old. New coach, but nothing to suggest a push for the eight.
11th. Carlton 4-7 -> A "meh" kind of a year.
12th. Port Adelaide 4-7 -> Talent recruit to miss the year. Another development year. 2025 is when whips need to get cracking.
13th. Fremantle 4-7 -> Might claim a scalp or two still in WA from travelling sides feeling the pinch of the compressed season.
14th. Essendon 3-8 -> The great pretenders. Made finals last year from a soft draw. Will be exposed this season.
15th. Hawthorn 3-8 -> Any reason to suggest any improvement from the Hawks? Can the new coach weave any magic?
16th. Western Bulldogs 2-9 -> The rebuild begins at the Kennel.
17th. West Coast 2-9 -> All eyes on Daisy. Not really about the wins, but interest in how the Eagles will play
18th. GWS Giants 2-9 -> Just burn it all down and start again.

Finals Prediction
Week One
Kangaroos defeat Richmond
Melbourne lose to Adelaide
Gold Coast defeat Sydney
Geelong lose to Brisbane

Week Two
Melbourne defeat Brisbane
Richmond defeat Gold Coast

Week Three
Kangaroos defeat Melbourne
Adelaide defeat Richmond

Grand Final
Kangaroos defeat Adelaide

 

[Teen Wolf]

GWS more likely to start the season 4-1 than go 2-9, unless Parker gets injured again.

West Coast smacking, and finishing above, Fremantle wouldn't surprise me.

Gold Coast lost four of their best 10 players for nothing. 6 wins would be an impressive carry job by Rowbottom.

 

[Cdog71]

Once again I think the clubs that have been established longer will handle injuries better and as much as you’d want everyone to stay healthy, not having at least a three week period between the condensed rounds and finals the potential for good players missing is there.
The Bookies will be happy.

I think Sydney have a sweet run and I think they’ll play at least two finals.
Tiges don’t seem to have improved speed and run on the wings which hasn’t helped at Ikon being so round, not playing as many there is good but we’re gonna be relying on 32yr olds to play great seasons and there aren’t many seasons where Brennan didn’t break down.

North v Dees for the flag.

Nth
Dees
Adel
Swans
Bris
Tiges
Geel
Saints/Eagles

 

[Teen Wolf]

This is what I'm going with, usual disclaimers about unforeseen injuries apply:


Same top 8 as I tipped last year (albeit different order), except Fremantle out for Collingwood.

Even though Richmond and St Kilda both fell short of my finals predictions, they were still preeeetty close, so I haven't really changed my mind about either team's list.

 

[CURVE]

1. Adelaide
2. North Melbourne
3. Brisbane
4. Melbourne
5. Geelong
6. Richmond
7. Essendon
8. St Kilda
9. Collingwood
10. Sydney
11. Gold Coast
12. Carlton
13. GWS
14. Hawthorn
15. Fremantle
16. West Coast
17. Western Bulldogs
18. Port Adelaide

 

[Teen Wolf]

Captains' predictions...

2023:

Which team aside from your own is most likely to reach the NAB AFLW Grand Final?
14 – Melbourne
2 – Adelaide Crows
1 – Geelong Cats
1 – North Melbourne

2024:

Which team aside from your own is most likely to reach the NAB AFLW Grand Final?
9 – North Melbourne
8 – Brisbane Lions
1 – Geelong Cats

So despite the tips for last year being so unambitious (and wrong), I'm still quite surprised by the narrow choices this year.

Nothing for Adelaide who lost 3 games last year by a combined total of 6 pts, and they have a way better fixture than North Melbourne this year.

 

[Demon in Hell]

Its the Roos to lose.

 

[Perrip]

2024:

If the pattern continues from past years, theoretically, North should win it. However, Brisbane has a good chance of going back to back.

 

[shockmaster]

Brisbane
Adelaide
Geelong
North Melbourne
Melbourne
Essendon
Richmond
Sydney

Collingwood
St Kilda
Gold Coast
Hawthorn
Carlton
GWS
Fremantle
Port Adelaide
Bulldogs
West Coast

 

[TheNeutralFan]

Top 8:

1. North Melbourne
2. Adelaide
3. Brisbane
4. Essendon
5. Melbourne
6. Geelong
7. Fremantle
8. Sydney or Gold Coast

 

[Cdog71]

I think Tiges have enough threats and scoring options now.
I would have them higher than 6th if we had a better 1v1 tall def.
I think Bec Miller can give up quite a few marks to her direct oppo and a lot of them within goal scoring range.

Grieser and Miller are exactly the type of players those two need to practice against…hope they’ve improved

 

[cmndstab]

I'm tipping a North - Crows GF, with North to win their first flag.

 

[HTPunter]

1. Adelaide
2. North Melbourne (Premiers)
3. Sydney
4. Brisbane
5. Geelong
6. Essendon
7. Melbourne
8. St Kilda

9. Collingwood
10. Richmond
11. Hawthorn
12. Carlton
13. Fremantle
14. Port Adelaide
15. GWS
16. Gold Coast
17. Western Bulldogs
18. West Coast

 

[TheNeutralFan]

Will we see any WA representation in the AFLW Finals series this year? Absolutely Freo 7-8 on the ladder! Who agrees?

 

[Teen Wolf]

Coach Sookervich at it again:

'Same old, same old': Why flag-winning Lions coach is 'a little bit angry'

Brisbane AFLW coach Craig Starcevich believes his team still isn't getting the respect it deserves ahead of its title defence

www.afl.com.au

"They've canvassed people across the League, and none have us winning it again," Starcevich said on Thursday.

8 of 17 captains essentially tipped Brisbane to go back-to-back, something no team has done before...

And they're the favourites with the bookies too, the poor underrated darlings.

 

[cmndstab]

Coach Sookervich at it again:

'Same old, same old': Why flag-winning Lions coach is 'a little bit angry'

Brisbane AFLW coach Craig Starcevich believes his team still isn't getting the respect it deserves ahead of its title defence

www.afl.com.au

8 of 17 captains essentially tipped Brisbane to go back-to-back, something no team has done before...

And they're the favourites with the bookies too, the poor underrated darlings.

That was very strange. Why would Starcevich say something so obviously incorrect? Eight of the captains picked as the club most likely to make the grand final, eight captains also picked them to finish as minor premiers.

Was there any other canvassing of people across the league that I'm not aware of? Even if you stretch that definition to include the Credit to the Girls podcast, all three of them had Brisbane finishing top 4.

I understand trying to paint yourself as an underdog, but surely you don't do that by flat out lying and stating something when the complete opposite is true.

 

[Teen Wolf]

That was very strange. Why would Starcevich say something so obviously incorrect? Eight of the captains picked as the club most likely to make the grand final, eight captains also picked them to finish as minor premiers.

Was there any other canvassing of people across the league that I'm not aware of? Even if you stretch that definition to include the Credit to the Girls podcast, all three of them had Brisbane finishing top 4.

I understand trying to paint yourself as an underdog, but surely you don't do that by flat out lying and stating something when the complete opposite is true.

I don't know what the chip on the shoulder is about. The longer the article goes on, the further removed from reality he seems to be with all the "looks like it's going to take forever to get a bit of respect" stuff.

They had 3 players in the All-Australian team last year, Hodder won both Mark of the Year and the AFLPA Most Courageous award, and Koenen got the GF BOG (a year after Campbell got it in a losing team). This all followed consecutive League B&F winners... and I'm pretty sure he's won AFLCA Coach of the Year multiple times.

 

[Lazza16]

Since the fixture is now live, let's have the fun of our first impression tipping and seeing how the ladder (at the end of the Home and Away season) shapes out for you.

This is what I ended up with...

1st. North Melbourne Tasmanian Kangaroos 10-1 -> Will be stung be last year's GF loss and go on the rampage
2nd. Melbourne 10-1 -> Just consistently thereabouts, and I think they'll be in the Top 4 again.
3rd. Adelaide Crows 9-2 -> Like Melbourne, always thereabouts.
4th. Richmond 9-2 -> The big improvers. Injuries smashed them last year, but they always put in a show. Their year to push for the Top 4.
5th. Gold Coast 8-3 -> Growing very nicely, and will be hard to beat up in Qld.
6th. Geelong 7-4 -> I'm tipping a sluggish start, but to pick up steam at the business end.
7th. Brisbane 6-5 -> Bit like last year. Good team that will drop a game or two at times when they shouldn't. Still a threat, but inconsistent.
8th. Sydney 6-5 -> Draw is harder than last year, but with some injured talent coming back, should be enough to hold their spot in the top 8.

9th. St. Kilda 6-5 -> Might look an even better side than last year, but will just fall short on percentage. Probably lose a coin flip game or two.
10th. Collingwood 4-7 -> More of the same old, same old. New coach, but nothing to suggest a push for the eight.
11th. Carlton 4-7 -> A "meh" kind of a year.
12th. Port Adelaide 4-7 -> Talent recruit to miss the year. Another development year. 2025 is when whips need to get cracking.
13th. Fremantle 4-7 -> Might claim a scalp or two still in WA from travelling sides feeling the pinch of the compressed season.
14th. Essendon 3-8 -> The great pretenders. Made finals last year from a soft draw. Will be exposed this season.
15th. Hawthorn 3-8 -> Any reason to suggest any improvement from the Hawks? Can the new coach weave any magic?
16th. Western Bulldogs 2-9 -> The rebuild begins at the Kennel.
17th. West Coast 2-9 -> All eyes on Daisy. Not really about the wins, but interest in how the Eagles will play
18th. GWS Giants 2-9 -> Just burn it all down and start again.

Finals Prediction
Week One
Kangaroos defeat Richmond
Melbourne lose to Adelaide
Gold Coast defeat Sydney
Geelong lose to Brisbane

Week Two
Melbourne defeat Brisbane
Richmond defeat Gold Coast

Week Three
Kangaroos defeat Melbourne
Adelaide defeat Richmond

Grand Final
Kangaroos defeat Adelaide

Once again another foolish tipster under estimating the Lionesses. INCONSISTENT? The most consistent team ever ...
don't give up your day job.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Melbourne are the only team to have a top 4 record in every H&A season (3rd 3rd 4th 4th 4th 2nd 2nd 2nd)...

Melb: 8/8 (100%)
Adel: 6/8 (75%)
Bris: 6/8 (75%)
NM: 4/6 (67%)
Carl: 2/8 (25%)
Frem: 2/8 (25%)
Rich: 1/5 (20%)
Coll: 1/8 (13%)
GWS: 1/8 (13%)
WB: 1/8 (13%)

It would be "foolish" to say any team has been more consistent than the Dees.

But yeah something crazy would have to happen for Brisbane to lose 5 H&A games. The gap between their best and worst last year was huge (remember 1.4 at 3QT v St Kilda), and they still only lost 3.

 

[TheNeutralFan]

If Fremantle win today, then people can start predicting them in the 9-12 bracket of the ladder.

 

[CrowdedHouse]

But yeah something crazy would have to happen for Brisbane to lose 5 H&A games.

I had the Lions losing to North, Adelaide and (in an upset) Sydney at home.

On the road I had the Lions dropping games to Melbourne (at Casey Fields) and Geelong (at Kardinia Park).

If you think Sydney and Melbourne are a no, you then have Gold Coast (cause weird results occur in rivalry games) and possibly the Saints in the final round (could be an important game for both sides).

 

[Teen Wolf]

I had the Lions losing to North, Adelaide and (in an upset) Sydney at home.

On the road I had the Lions dropping games to Melbourne (at Casey Fields) and Geelong (at Kardinia Park).

If you think Sydney and Melbourne are a no, you then have Gold Coast (cause weird results occur in rivalry games) and possibly the Saints in the final round (could be an important game for both sides).

Playing the odds, I just pencilled Brisbane in to always win at home, with losses only to Melb, Geel & StK on the road.

I don't think they're too much of an enigma despite yo-yo-ing a bit in 2023, which was mostly about complacency vs Richmond, Collingwood and St Kilda.

 

[CrowdedHouse]

Playing the odds, I just pencilled Brisbane in to always win at home, with losses only to Melb, Geel & StK on the road.

I don't think they're too much of an enigma despite yo-yo-ing a bit in 2023, which was mostly about complacency vs Richmond, Collingwood and St Kilda.

I'm surprised you didn't tip North to beat them up there.

I think the Roos are champing at the bit to get in stuck into the Lions, with those final quarter GF memories still fresh in the mind. I'd go as far as saying North by 3-4 goals.

 

[Liam Boy]

I'm surprised you didn't tip North to beat them up there.

I think the Roos are champing at the bit to get in stuck into the Lions, with those final quarter GF memories still fresh in the mind. I'd go as far as saying North by 3-4 goals.

only 3-4?

 

[CrowdedHouse]

only 3-4?

Was being conservative