List Mgmt. 2024 Trade & List Management Thread - Part 3

[giantroo]

Spoiler: 2024 Draft Picks

 

[New_Roo]

our F1st to GC for pick #13 which we offer to Port for Houston..

once that deal is done then offer our Pick#2 for Melbournes Pick#5 and #9

Why would they take 13 when rejected that and 23 yest!


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[Sphynx]

We would have traded the F1 for 13 yesterday if we could, no doubt this should be a target for us if Houston falls down. With Freo after Warner we might be able to tempt a sweetener too.

It could just be on the money for a Tauru type, should he get past the Saints and Demons.

Madness.

It's an even draft but that doesn't mean every selection in the first 15 is a top 3 pick.

In fact, a lot of people argue the opposite (including me).

It lacks the absolute superstar talent, but has a larger number of players than normal that would be considered top 10 prospects in most drafts and a much larger number of players that would be considered top 20-25 prospects.

 

[archereleven]

We have 2 current top 10 picks.

Improving one is a better hand.

Trading out 2 for 1 is just stupid.

In 2017, it wouldn't have been stupid, LOL!!

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[speedy]

I listened to my first bit of trade radio this morning and they (Kane and whoever was on with him early) said exactly this - they said if North land Houston, Parker and Daniel as well as Darling (even though not convinced about Darling’s value) the club should be looking at around eight wins next season and be pushing for finals the season after.

And after that… stuck in “the vortex”

 

[DesertRoo]

hypothetically, Would you do:

2+25 for 8+F1?

You can go land gold coasts 13 or Freo’s 11 with our F1 and land Houston.

Overall: North get Houston + P8

for

We Get: 2+25

Houston aint coming, never was, story of the lesser known vic clubs.

if you want 2 you'd have to dump a good player and picks, I doubt we'd both even entertain the offers it'd take.
my guess is the first name across the desk would be D.Wilson because of family connections. I could only imagine the reaction.

 

[Heaps of fun]

Futures are inherently less valuable than current picks. A new player making their mark in a rookie year can be transformative while your future sits there doing nothing for 15 months until the season after next begins.

 

[Jimmac31]

Neither of these are going to happen, Brady has stated we're happy to slide back 3 or 4 picks. The only option at this stage would be 2 for the Dees 5 & 9.

Does won't trade 9. They just traded everything to get 9.

 

[remfan101]

We would have traded the F1 for 13 yesterday if we could, no doubt this should be a target for us if Houston falls down. With Freo after Warner we might be able to tempt a sweetener too.

It could just be on the money for a Tauru type, should he get past the Saints and Demons.

Tauru isn't getting past pick 6 or7 I reckon. Hence us only wanting to shuffle down 3-4 spots max.

 

[NMFC TID]

We have 2 current top 10 picks.

Improving one is a better hand.

Trading out 2 for 1 is just stupid.

Take your sob story to the Saints board, Champ

 

[The Nostradamus]

the only one we will consider splitting 2 with is richmond

 

[Bashnek]

If we're intent on trading our F1, which it seems like we are, would we consider this? Or maybe F1 for Tigers 10 which they'll get from Freo for Bolton? Even if the Houston deal fell over we take that pick to the draft.

I think in both cases we're paying overs, pick F1 – 5 for 10 or 11, but it seems a risk we're prepared to take given we're intent / desperate to improve rapidly.
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didnt freo want 11 for Bo Allan? as is they'd still be ahead of WC for him and might as well take it to the draft.

Not against it for us but it doesn't seem like we'd get 11 from Freo

 

[4cunningTonneTruck]

Our F1 is not worth pick 2 right now. You've gotta remember in other clubs eyes it's a gamble. While it is likely a top 5 pick, it could be anywhere between 1-18. It's also a year later to develop a player, and in a draft touted to be weaker and more compromised. There is no way we get top 5 value for it if we trade it into this year's draft. We may even struggle to get top 10 value. Still might be worth it if we get someone like Armstrong with pick 10-12, a year of development under Darling.

 

[The Filth Wizard]

Madness.

It's an even draft but that doesn't mean every selection in the first 15 is a top 3 pick.

In fact, a lot of people argue the opposite (including me).

It lacks the absolute superstar talent, but has a larger number of players than normal that would be considered top 10 prospects in most drafts and a much larger number of players that would be considered top 20-25 prospects.

It's not madness but then I don't want to get married to the future first rounder.

 

[My Left Foote]

Our F1 is as valuable as Pick 2. Until we prove otherwise.

Possibly even more so in not as even a draft with the possibility our F1 is a pick which precedes a lot of Acadamy and FS selections.


Would you trade Pick 2 for Pick 11 now?

Completely agree, I'm not in the trade F1 camp, I'm just posing a question as to what trades we might do given the the club seem keen to trade it.

My personal preference would be to keep our F1 and split 2 with the Dees and take 5, 9 and 25 to the draft I think we could get the best available whilst also addressing our list needs.

 

[Sphynx]

Futures are inherently less valuable than current picks. A new player making their mark in a rookie year can be transformative while your future sits there doing nothing for 15 months until the season after next begins.

There's an element of that, there's also a consideration between draft strengths, where the team might finish etc.

We've had enough of a sample size now that invariably the team that trades out the future pick gets screwed more than the other way around. All the risk lies with them, as you said, they've cashed their chips, generally for unders for the immediate injection.

Plenty of examples of nosediving and giving up a bigger pick than expected (Collingwood x 2), or teams trading out of drafts because they mistakenly thought this draft was better than the next (North w/ Caleb Serong and the 2019 draft).


This isn't even a 50/50 prospect with us, the long term data is there, we are likely to be horrible again. There's low risk for a team buying our F1, especially for picks 7-8 higher than what they might be purchasing.


Put it this way, if we ever get back up the ladder again, I'd be biting the hand off these sorts of deals, but they very rarely get offered, because they are idiotic.

 

[The Y Factor]

I think offering up a F1 (likely top 5 pick), when most other clubs are around the pick 10 shows a high level of desperation.

They have said that would be the basis of a trade not the sum total.

 

[DocSholl]

My personal preference would be to keep our F1 and split 2 with the Dees and take 5, 9 and 25 to the draft I think we could get the best available whilst also addressing our list needs.

I think that would be everyone's preference, mostly because it's not all that realistic and wildly favours us

 

[The Talent Scout]

Kane Cornes saying that, after what he has said about us in the last four years, he wouldn't want port to have a good draft pick would he? You have to go to North, Dan!

 

[outwecome2play]

the only one we will consider splitting 2 with is richmond

Can you change 'we' to 'you'.

 

[My Left Foote]

Does won't trade 9. They just traded everything to get 9.

I don't think they will either, but at this stage that's the only club I'd split 2 with. Will be interesting to see what Richmond end up with we could do 2 for 6 (from Suns) and 10 (from Freo).

 

[GS WARRIORS]

Pies should say to suns, no Houston then no Noble.

Suns should say to Port, no Noble then no Lukosius.

Get back in the room and give Port a little more. They need to save more Dan.

 

[Passmore]

Dunkley probably has welts from pinching himself so much, the way his trade turned out.

He probably wakes up in cold sweats from nightmares if his * trade request went through.

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[My Left Foote]

I think offering up a F1 (likely top 5 pick), when most other clubs are around the pick 10 shows a high level of desperation.

Unfortunately I think that's where we're at, there's a sense of urgency / impatience, the club knows we can't afford to have another 3 win season next year.

 

[Pravda Roo]

I would trade our futuristic 1st to Richmond for theres, and maybe get 13 back this year.

 

[Sphynx]

It's not madness but then I don't want to get married to the future first rounder.

Lol.

I tend to value them because it's the only way we will ever climb the ladder.

We have no pull with FA's, we have no pull at the trade table, even with a legendary coach at the helm which every man and their dog on here were so definitive was going to change that narrative (gone quiet now....)

It's the one function in the entire shit show of a system, where we can't get screwed over.

Players can't refuse to come here and we have just as much right to pick from the biggest talent pool (Victoria) as any other Victorian team.


Everyone wants to trade into the draft position of a 2nd week of the finals side for an immediate dopamine hit.


I recall everyone saying the same regarding Gibcus, which would have cost us Sheezel. "No chance we will be as shit as we were last year" was the justification.

Well, Harry Sheezel would be at Richmond. And our payoff would have been getting Josh Gibcus for 12 months in advance as a rookie. Awesome.... totally worth the difference in talent between the two.