List Mgmt. 2024 Trade & List Management Thread - Part 3

[giantroo]

Spoiler: 2024 Draft Picks

 

[King Corey]

Rather pick Draper and trade a f2 for a pick in the 20s/30s then use our pick 62

Approved

 

[DunderHead]

Approved

I don’t think they’d do it. Maybe future 2nd and 3rd would make it happen.

 

[FootySmartSimpson]

Dawson and Goad not considered as drafting talls recently ?

Forwards. And forwards that can be playing seniors in 2-3 years.

 

[Blightys Barrel]

Found in Brady’s briefcase.

“Do I keep the #2, or split it like the King used to do to opposition back lines?”

 

[kool kangas]

100% this. Draper at 2 and trade our f2 for Richmond’s pick 23 and take the best tall available. Pick 62 should come in a bit so hopefully there’s a good slider there.

Tigers want our Pick#2 so they will only give us pick#23 for our F2nd if we hand over pick#2 first for 6 and 18. They wont want to give us #10 or #11 in place of #18...

 

[FootySmartSimpson]

Tigers want our Pick#2 so they will only give us pick#23 for our F2nd if we hand over pick#2 first for 6 and 18. They wont want to give us #10 or #11 in place of #18...

Are we f*cking allergic to second round picks?!

 

[DuckYeah]

Tigers want our Pick#2 so they will only give us pick#23 for our F2nd if we hand over pick#2 first for 6 and 18. They wont want to give us #10 or #11 in place of #18...

Well they can suck on bradys big fat nose.

 

[archereleven]

Probably because North would win that deal hands down. Richmond are not quite that stupid.

We have pick 2.

Who should win the deal? Lol

On SM-G991B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Horace]

Have a look at past drafts and see if North would win the deal hands down. You’ll be surprised. You don’t give up pick 2 in a draft unless the offer is too good to refuse. 6 and 11 we might do because of our circumstance this year but odds are we’d lose on the trade.

Have a look at the talent available this year and also have a look at the differing opinions as to who will go at what pick. If we are to believe what many are saying, being that there is no stand out pick this year, then who knows, one clubs Pick 2 might be another clubs Pick 6 or maybe even Pick 10.

In my opinion, if we can get Picks 6 and 11 for 2, then we will have won that deal.

 

[DuckYeah]

Have a look at the talent available this year and also have a look at the differing opinions as to who will go at what pick. If we are to believe what many are saying, being that there is no stand out pick this year, then who knows, one clubs Pick 2 might be another clubs Pick 6 or maybe even Pick 10.

In my opinion, if we can get Picks 6 and 11 for 2, then we will have won that deal.

Obviously a significant drop off with the mids though. The top 5 are the top 5 for a reason, order is debatable

 

[Ura]

Make no mistake here. The narative is heavily media driven that North want to trade 2.

We dont need to trade 2 to get who we want. Tigers want pick 2 to get the player they want. Its important for that distinction. As said multiple times its a deep draft. Dont trade F1 except for a great offer for us. F2 or F3 to get back in and take some of that deep talent.

FWIW I still take Tauru at 2

 

[Horace]

Obviously a significant drop off with the mids though. The top 5 are the top 5 for a reason, order is debatable

Yes but many here do not want us to take another mid. The consensus is that we should be looking to draft for height, rather than another midfielder.

Personally I'm not too fussed which way we go, apart from if we have any inkling that LDU might leave under free agency at the end of next year, then we should absolutely retain number 2 and take who we see as the best midfielder in that bunch.

 

[shinboner magic]

Just watch the trade get announced during the running of the Melb cup

 

[My Left Foote]

Make no mistake here. The narative is heavily media driven that North want to trade 2.

We dont need to trade 2 to get who we want. Tigers want pick 2 to get the player they want. Its important for that distinction. As said multiple times its a deep draft. Dont trade F1 except for a great offer for us. F2 or F3 to get back in and take some of that deep talent.

FWIW I still take Tauru at 2

F2 or F3 to get back in sounds good in theory but who do we trade with? Richmond, GWS after that it’s slim pickings. I’m not keen on trading our F1 but it will be a lot more enticing than our F2 or F3.

 

[Ura]

F2 or F3 to get back in sounds good in theory but who do we trade with? Richmond, GWS after that it’s slim pickings. I’m not keen on trading our F1 but it will be a lot more enticing than our F2 or F3.

Of course F1 would be more appealing. Its more value to us for me. If its not a pick between 7-12 i wouldnt do it for our F1. We are most likely a top 5 pick and with how unconvincing I have viewed the top end of this draft I think next year more likely to have a better top end.
This draft is deep. We dont need a pick 20-25 to get value. We will get value deeper and could trade for that with F2 and F3. Look at names expcected to be available in the 30s. Players like Ough, Gross, day-wicks, Gerryn could be available in those places.

 

[perplexed]

F2 or F3 to get back in sounds good in theory but who do we trade with? Richmond, GWS after that it’s slim pickings. I’m not keen on trading our F1 but it will be a lot more enticing than our F2 or F3.

Essendon have a couple of decent picks 28, 31 that they will look to trade out before the draft, as they should enough points to match the Kako bid with their later picks. I would be trying to get one of those with our F2.

 

[Chip Scab1]

Essendon have a couple of decent picks 28, 31 that they will look to trade out before the draft, as they should enough points to match the Kako bid with their later picks. I would be trying to get one of those with our F2.

Hi Bombres, we'll bid on Kako at 2 unless you trade us both for 2025 R2, thanks.

 

[Ura]

Essendon have a couple of decent picks 28, 31 that they will look to trade out before the draft, as they should enough points to match the Kako bid with their later picks. I would be trying to get one of those with our F2.

There will be value to trade there i think. Sides like Gold coast aswell. I think there is more value around those later picks then 15-25 where sides will want a F1
F1 deal for me would be Tigers pick 11 and 20. that would be my value for it

 

[perplexed]

There will be value to trade there i think. Sides like Gold coast aswell. I think there is more value around those later picks then 15-25 where sides will want a F1
F1 deal for me would be Tigers pick 11 and 20. that would be my value for it

I doubt we'll get that for our F1, but if we can get a pick around 30 for our f2 there are several key forwards who could be available. Gerryn, Barrat and Sims all look promising.

 

[Ura]

I doubt we'll get that for our F1, but if we can get a pick around 30 for our f2 there are several key forwards who could be available. Gerryn, Barrat and Sims all look promising.

I agree that wont happen for our F1. Thats what I value it though. A swap for 10 or 11 directly may move the head depending on who is available.

I see more value at those later picks. I personally still want Tauru because i see special and would take him at 2 unless the offer sufficient. I wouldnt complain if we took a mid though. There is going to be value later though more speculative.

 

[justroyal]

Can we get a poll going about who we should take at 2 ? So Ralph can get a better gauge and Brady can anticipate the type of backlash he’ll receive. After CCJ I suspect it will be in his best interest

 

[Boro]

Have a look at the talent available this year and also have a look at the differing opinions as to who will go at what pick. If we are to believe what many are saying, being that there is no stand out pick this year, then who knows, one clubs Pick 2 might be another clubs Pick 6 or maybe even Pick 10.

In my opinion, if we can get Picks 6 and 11 for 2, then we will have won that deal.

No opinion is wrong at this stage. I think that there is a top 5 (maybe 6) that have risen above the rest this year. Maybe you are correct and every club has different ideas, but FOS Draper Smith Ashcroft and Lalor as a five look a bit better bets than the rest to my eye and if a club wants one they should pay a fair price.

I understand we need to select a tall or two and at the end of the day we are all just guessing at what is fair or not. I just like to look at the history of picks to work out what is my idea of a fair price. If we do trade for 6 and 18 for example I guess I’ll just be hoping the draft is as strong as they say.

 

[The Talent Scout]

Just watch the trade get announced during the running of the Melb cup

Its funny you mention the Melbourne Cup, it wouldn't surprise me. The thing is Brady has to stop being this "Fancy Man" and do his business, his "Interpretation" of his management and negotiation skills must come through with a lot of "Positivity". Its just "Absurde" to think that Brady is going to do a terrible deal on draft night, he's going to have "The Map" on the players we like and where they are likely going and the other first round players as well, I know if he gets this wrong he will be in a "Circle of Fire", but trust me, he'll be "Just Fine"!

You see our Brady for some of the negativity which has come his way in recent times, at the draft this year, people will remember him as "Sharp and Smart" and the North faithful in our thoughts will be thinking, we "Trust in you"! Just watch, come draft night, with proposed picks flying everywhere our Brady will be moving at 'Warp Speed' to get the right deal done, because he is "Onesmoothoperator"! In the end, this draft is going to show that Brady is in control and while some opposition posters will reject that theory, I couldn't give a "BuckaROO", because at draft time he is our "Saint George" and by the end of it he'll be our "Valiant King"!

 

[chubbspeterson]

With list numbers, I meant using our free list spots and number of picks to maximise our options at the draft. In the past we have had to trade picks for unders before the draft because we have had more picks than free list spots. This time we have four list spots but only one pick and it is limiting our ability to organise a trade for pick 2. Had we kept 25 we would be in a stronger negotiating position but also have a very useable pick if things fell through. Maximising our return for pick 2 was always our main priority before the draft and we needlessly compromised that in the Daniel trade. It was inept, but typical. Our approach to list management lacks strategy. It focuses on individual decisions and ignores the big picture. It's why we always go 'best available' even if it means taking four small mids in the same draft.

I don't remember us making too many trades before the draft involving picks apart from the Brayden George trade.
Most of them have been on draft night. Agree that we haven't always given ourselves the flexibility with picks/spots.
They seem to not want to draft speculative kids and prepare to take them as rookies with 1 yr contracts.
Will be interesting to see if we do take pick 62 to the draft this year.

Pick 25 for Daniel was overs but Viney, Lamb and Taylor at Dees were prepared to pay a fair price for players who they thought would "tip the balance" of competitiveness and squad depth. They must think it's worth it. We'll see if it is.
I would have loved to keep pick 25 and agree on the lack of balance to our drafting, particularly with 2nd and 3rd round picks the last decade. We'll wait and see what happens the next few weeks.

 

[chubbspeterson]

statistician, meh! Personally think Perplexed raises some valid points re list management and trading (as distinct from talent identification which is where you're footy experience comes from). In my view, AFL teams could do well by tapping into financial markets skill sets in list management (portfolio management, optimisation within constraints, risk management, psychology of trading). Not saying its black and white, but there are parallels with players as assets, to be invested in, and traded, interactions between players and player types ( covariance), and how they accrue to maximising the value of the overall team (portfolio).

I'd send our recruiters over to Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA if they'd let us behind the curtain.
I'd love to know their drafting philosophy and process of how they scout players.
They seem to find really good players, not just Durant, Harden and Westbrook high end picks, but even at pick 12 (Jalen Williams) and even pick 50 something (Aaron Wiggins) they find very good players and role players.