Game Day 2024 Trade Period

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Very few players maintain their peak consistently for 6 -7 years. That is what you are hoping for if you think we will get 4 years peak Bolton. It is more likely that his peak is past. I posted on this earlier in this thread, only 3 payers older than 26 have wone the AFLCA, the last was Simon Goodwin in 2006. Bolton turns 26 in December. I'm just trying to be realistic.
4 years peak? That's not a peak, that's a plateau!

Given all kinds of things can happen (injuries) that affect performance, what you'd be hoping for, rather, is either 4 years of the kind of consistent quality that would get you top 10 in the Doig, or should their be injuries, then say 2 of the 4 or so years being AA-squad quality or better.
 

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Reading that I just realised tigers are going to get suns P23 which is still a 1st round pick, maybe we want that instead of 24 so we can tick off taking 2 x 1st round picks this year, I don’t like it but…
10+11 for Bolton + 23 is a real possibility, meaning we end up with 18,23 and 30 and tick off the 2x 1st round picks this year so could conceivably trade 3x1st if we win the cup next year and still want Chad
 
ngl your offer to us is weird

10 and 11 is too high for Bolton apparently

You value him at 10 and 18, fair enough

Then you offer us 10,11, 18 for Bolton and Baker?

This means you value Baker at 11? I don’t get it that’s bigger overs than Bolton.
I agree with you. If it were me I'd offer you pick 30 for Baker.
 

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ngl your offer to us is weird

10 and 11 is too high for Bolton apparently

You value him at 10 and 18, fair enough

Then you offer us 10,11, 18 for Bolton and Baker?

This means you value Baker at 11? I don’t get it that’s bigger overs than Bolton.

We aren't offering that. That is all media speculation about what we would offer.
 
Based on what?

Bolton is 25. Walters plays a similar role and was All Australian at 29.
Based on your argument if you like.
Clear the decks first - Bolton is 26 before next season, we'll look at Walters from 26 on ie 2017.

Walters had 5 seasons kicking 30+goals, only 2 were after 2016.
Walters had 6 seasons of 300+ disposals, only 3 after 2016. (Serong, Young and Brayshaw are 500+ by comparison).

His AA year, age 28, was outstanding and by far and away his best season.

In light of your own comparison it's not likely that we will get 4 years of peak Bolton. We might, but anyone assessing his trade value should not be basing their assessment on the best case scenario.

Career Season Totals​
YearTeamGMKHDMGBTHOFFFAGAI50CLCGR50BL
2024​
17*​
90​
59​
149​
43​
17​
13​
31​
0​
11​
5​
5​
18​
6​
25​
2​
2023​
20*​
127​
72​
199​
56​
33​
13​
33​
0​
14​
21​
16​
29​
10​
46​
1​
2022​
21​
172​
124​
296​
82​
25​
15​
57​
0​
30​
19​
11​
42​
18​
62​
5​
2021​
16​
147​
76​
223​
63​
14​
11​
32​
0​
21​
14​
9​
32​
19​
35​
8​
2020​
14​
145​
102​
247​
44​
15​
7​
40​
0​
26​
10​
7​
36​
43​
44​
17​
8​
2019​
22​
303​
176​
479​
83​
40​
17​
79​
0​
51​
26​
10​
86​
83​
64​
24​
11​
2018​
18​
206​
150​
356​
65​
22​
14​
59​
1​
40​
32​
18​
63​
47​
68​
13​
8​
2017​
17​
197​
130​
327​
74​
22​
14​
45​
0​
29​
25​
16​
67​
46​
54​
9​
10​
2016​
22​
244​
157​
401​
91​
36​
21​
66​
0​
36​
20​
14​
86​
39​
71​
16​
3​
2015​
22​
225​
107​
332​
77​
44​
19​
54​
0​
37​
17​
12​
67​
29​
41​
11​
3​
2014​
8​
79​
28​
107​
29​
15​
13​
20​
0​
11​
9​
10​
23​
6​
15​
3​
2013​
21​
231​
93​
324​
108​
46​
23​
52​
0​
32​
20​
21​
60​
23​
49​
13​
6​
2012​
10​
83​
36​
119​
40​
22​
11​
29​
0​
13​
5​
8​
29​
3​
14​
5​
2011​
3​
19​
5​
24​
3​
4​
3​
8​
0​
4​
1​
2​
5​
2​
3​
0​
2010​
5​
52​
17​
69​
15​
8​
1​
12​
0​
12​
6​
4​
9​
3​
13​
6​
2009​
3​
21​
11​
32​
14​
2​
1​
5​
0​
0​
2​
3​
9​
Career
239*​
2341
1343
3684
887
365
196
622
1
367
232
163
652
377
604
133
49
 
Too much. If we’re giving 30 we should be getting a 20s pick back
10 and 18 is clearly going to at best be marginally not enough. We arent getting an upgrade of 30.

Also, that pick 51 would come in a shitload on draft night. The actual difference between 30 and 51 probably wont be THAT much
 
ngl your offer to us is weird

10 and 11 is too high for Bolton apparently

You value him at 10 and 18, fair enough

Then you offer us 10,11, 18 for Bolton and Baker?

This means you value Baker at 11? I don’t get it that’s bigger overs than Bolton.


If it seems too good to be true
 
Ralph from HS saying that's what the deal is looking like for Rioli. I'm guessing the club will ask for P51 knowing that pick will come in by 5-10 places through academy and F/s bids.

I think it is plausible.

Are you predicting this based on the Ralph tweet about the Rioli deal? Or do you have another source?

We absolutely do not need to include pick 30 to the deal. I'm happy to swap a future third for their future fourth, or something else meaningless. 10 and 18 is more than enough.
 
Based on your argument if you like.
Clear the decks first - Bolton is 26 before next season, we'll look at Walters from 26 on ie 2017.

Walters had 5 seasons kicking 30+goals, only 2 were after 2016.
Walters had 6 seasons of 300+ disposals, only 3 after 2016. (Serong, Young and Brayshaw are 500+ by comparison).

His AA year, age 28, was outstanding and by far and away his best season.

In light of your own comparison it's not likely that we will get 4 years of peak Bolton. We might, but anyone assessing his trade value should not be basing their assessment on the best case scenario.

Career Season Totals​
YearTeamGMKHDMGBTHOFFFAGAI50CLCGR50BL
2024​
17*​
90​
59​
149​
43​
17​
13​
31​
0​
11​
5​
5​
18​
6​
25​
2​
2023​
20*​
127​
72​
199​
56​
33​
13​
33​
0​
14​
21​
16​
29​
10​
46​
1​
2022​
21​
172​
124​
296​
82​
25​
15​
57​
0​
30​
19​
11​
42​
18​
62​
5​
2021​
16​
147​
76​
223​
63​
14​
11​
32​
0​
21​
14​
9​
32​
19​
35​
8​
2020​
14​
145​
102​
247​
44​
15​
7​
40​
0​
26​
10​
7​
36​
43​
44​
17​
8​
2019​
22​
303​
176​
479​
83​
40​
17​
79​
0​
51​
26​
10​
86​
83​
64​
24​
11​
2018​
18​
206​
150​
356​
65​
22​
14​
59​
1​
40​
32​
18​
63​
47​
68​
13​
8​
2017​
17​
197​
130​
327​
74​
22​
14​
45​
0​
29​
25​
16​
67​
46​
54​
9​
10​
2016​
22​
244​
157​
401​
91​
36​
21​
66​
0​
36​
20​
14​
86​
39​
71​
16​
3​
2015​
22​
225​
107​
332​
77​
44​
19​
54​
0​
37​
17​
12​
67​
29​
41​
11​
3​
2014​
8​
79​
28​
107​
29​
15​
13​
20​
0​
11​
9​
10​
23​
6​
15​
3​
2013​
21​
231​
93​
324​
108​
46​
23​
52​
0​
32​
20​
21​
60​
23​
49​
13​
6​
2012​
10​
83​
36​
119​
40​
22​
11​
29​
0​
13​
5​
8​
29​
3​
14​
5​
2011​
3​
19​
5​
24​
3​
4​
3​
8​
0​
4​
1​
2​
5​
2​
3​
0​
2010​
5​
52​
17​
69​
15​
8​
1​
12​
0​
12​
6​
4​
9​
3​
13​
6​
2009​
3​
21​
11​
32​
14​
2​
1​
5​
0​
0​
2​
3​
9​
Career
239*​
2341
1343
3684
887
365
196
622
1
367
232
163
652
377
604
133
49
You should do Lachie Neales last 6 seasons since we traded him now as a counterpoint.

Might need to pour yourself a stiff drink after reading it though to counteract the depressing reality of how good the trade was for the Lions
 

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Game Day 2024 Trade Period

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