List Mgmt. 2024 Trade Thread - No.2

[FQFjt]

Bombers have problems in trading-up.

Firstly, they have to find a club willing to do it. Unlikely Demons (5) or Tigers (6) will do it. The opportunity cost of sliding back to pick 9 is too high.

Secondly, even if Essendon do trade-up, they have to get ahead of the Kako bid. It sounds like Demons could potentially bid for Kako as early as pick 5. Imagine if Bombers traded-up to pick 6 and the bid came in at 5. They would be really stuffed.

Trading-up for Essendon is really risky and it burns their future trade capital.

I think Bombers will need to trade-out. But they need to find a club who will trade a F1 AND give them a pick(s) this year that they can use to match the Kako bid. Preferably this pick is before their pick 31 so they can still draft this year.

Tigers have picks this year but won’t trade-out a F1.

Demons may trade-out a F1 and has pick 28.

Saints may trade-out a F1 and has pick 27.

Adelaide may trade-out a F1 and has pick 45.

I doubt NM would trade-out a F1 and has pick 25.

If I was Essendon, and I was trading-out pick 9, I’d want a F1 to be as early as possible and the for the incoming pick this year to be as early as possible.

Saints seem to tick both boxes. But are Essendon rational enough to trade-out? Not sure.

Why does Essendon need to get back into this draft? Will they not have enough points otherwise to match an early bid?

 

[BrutThough]

Hanners has to be Hunter Clarks biggest fan.

 

[FQFjt]

Might be an ignorant question, and I'm not right up to date on NGA bidding rules, but if there's a bid on Kako before their Pick 9, cant Ess just use Pick 9 as part of the points required to match it if they want him that badly?

They can but that is the worst possible outcome for them. It means basically paying market value for a player they should be able to secure for bargain rates. Trading pick 9 into next year's draft is far more value maximising.

 

[botts]

I think out of all the clubs potentially interested in pick 9, we’d be the ones with the biggest dichotomy between where we see us finishing next season and where Essendon might see us finishing - top 8 vs bottom 6

This should get us over the line if we make the offer

Pretty easy for them. Swop of futures and promise not to bid on kako

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

Why does Essendon need to get back into this draft? Will they not have enough points otherwise to match an early bid?

They have 37 & then picks after 80 of no points value.

They’ll get something in for Stringer & then can do a pick swap if they need more points.

That’s why I’m not giving up our 2nd just to help them out.

I don’t think SOS will be that charitable anyway


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[saint66au]

They can but that is the worst possible outcome for them. It means basically paying market value for a player they should be able to secure for bargain rates. Trading pick 9 into next year's draft is far more value maximising.

and theirin lies the problem. Yes have first dibs on a NGA player, but pay market rates for the privilege

 

[FQFjt]

They have 37 & then picks after 80 of no points value.

They’ll get something in for Stringer & then can do a pick swap if they need more points.

That’s why I’m not giving up our 2nd just to help them out.

I don’t think SOS will be that charitable anyway


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If we promise not to bid on Kako as part of the trade then that might be worth as much as a second rounder anyway.

 

[ThomasR]

Saints fans really are the most reasonable fanbase. Most club's forums are filled with one-sided trade deals where they're getting Harley Reid for the likes of Sam Frost and Seamus Mitchell.

Not us though. Here we come up with pick swaps that screw us and help a club we hate to get their academy kid.

Need this post to be stickied. Why on earth would we trade a future first (and a current second!) to a club we have over a barrel.

Like the proposed trade ups via Dees/North etc we should be trying to get their F1, not give them ours. A huge trade asset in a year where many clubs will be clamouring for points.

If they want to stay in this draft then I'd ask for 9 + F1 for 7. They would laugh and then I'd offer the GWS special - 8 for 9 + F2 which probably works for both parties.

 

[snails13]

The ultimate pick swap deal:

Pick 27 + F1st for Pick 9

Pick 9 for 15 + 16

Pick 16 + F2 for 19 + 22

Draft hand: 7, 8, 15, 19, 22

5 first round picks and we finish up the rebuild in one hit.

HilariousView attachment 2135034

Wasn't that Pencil Case initial propasal

 

[stavro#4]

Pretty easy for them. Swop of futures and promise not to bid on kako

Another factor.

If the bid doesn’t come before p7. We can guarantee the Bombers save them a minimum of about 250 DVI points by not bidding and letting them get through to 10.

 

[stavro#4]

Need this post to be stickied. Why on earth would we trade a future first (and a current second!) to a club we have over a barrel.

Like the proposed trade ups via Dees/North etc we should be trying to get their F1, not give them ours. A huge trade asset in a year where many clubs will be clamouring for points.

If they want to stay in this draft then I'd ask for 9 + F1 for 7. They would laugh and then I'd offer the GWS special - 8 for 9 + F2 which probably works for both parties.

I don’t understand any of your thinking here.

This is a draft that EVERY club is trying to trade into and trade up to.

Any proposal that involves us trading back from 7 even for a future first - means we likely miss the last top end mid. For a future pick that will be in a draft significantly more compromised than this one.

We lose pick 27 but move our first round from next year into this draft that is now highly touted.

We can gain a second rounder by dropping 9 to 10 for example. But it isn’t a big deal.

Twomey literally said our 3 academy/Fs picks look like going 30+. Which means we should be able to land 2 or all 3 for ass end picks.

 

[XhazzafootyX]

We are chasing miles Bergman extremely hard again.

For next year tho.

 

[St Neil]

Why does Essendon need to get back into this draft? Will they not have enough points otherwise to match an early bid?

They don’t have to. But if they trade-out pick 9 for a F1 then they can match the Kako bid with later draft picks that are not first round picks.

In essence, they keep their first round pick but it is converted into a future first. Giving them two future firsts. They can use either future first rounder to “buy back” into this year’s draft if they want.

If Essendon use pick 9 to match the bid for Kako then they burn a first rounder rather than trading it out and using it in the future.

 

[akaifu]

We are chasing miles Bergman extremely hard again.

For next year tho.

LDU, Brayshaw, Callaghan, Aleer, Bergman

Holy **** we’re actually #flagsaints2026

 

[Ducky Tie]

Bergman is pretty overrated for what he delivers, I feel. 9th in Port's b&f. His production isn't very high. Good solid player but wouldn't want to pay very much for him.

 

[BrutThough]

We are chasing miles Bergman extremely hard again.

For next year tho.

Chasing players like him, Callaghan, Alder for next year suggest we arent planing on trading many future picks this year,

 

[St Neil]

Chasing players like him, Callaghan, Alder for next year suggest we arent planing on trading many future picks this year,

From next year we can also trade-out picks from the 2026 and 2027 drafts.

 

[Mat Mann]

Morris reading Saints BF trade thread. Hahah

Was just saying Saints looking at Essendon Pick 9 for future 1st

 

[SteeleSaints]

We are chasing miles Bergman extremely hard again.

For next year tho.

WHY we have Hastie, McLennan and Hofmann who will all play the same role?

If its valid, its another bemusing list management call.

 

[SteeleSaints]

Another option for Essendon is to call the other clubs bluff and actually trade back in the draft eg pick #9 &F2nd to GWS picks #15 & 16.

Then even if a bid does come early they will have sufficient points remaining to get another kid late in the 1st or 2nd rounds.

The obvious reckoner is whether they rate the kid they get with the left over points higher than what they will get next year.

 

[stavro#4]

Morris reading Saints BF trade thread. Hahah

Was just saying Saints looking at Essendon Pick 9 for future 1st

We apparently want to talk to essendon about their pick 9

he should credit me

 

[stavro#4]

Another option for Essendon is to call the other clubs bluff and actually trade back in the draft eg pick #9 &F2nd to GWS picks #15 & 16.

Then even if a bid does come early they will have sufficient points remaining to get another kid late in the 1st or 2nd rounds.

The obvious reckoner is whether they rate the kid they get with the left over points higher than what they will get next year.

They could.

But they would lose 15 and an F2.

Trading with us gives them an F1 they could try trade with Richmond at 14 hypothetically and gain a second rounder to be eaten by the bid aswell.

We could also save them 250 points minimum which is a third rounder if the bid doesn’t come before pick 7.

 

[Armoooo]

Bergman is pretty overrated for what he delivers, I feel. 9th in Port's b&f. His production isn't very high. Good solid player but wouldn't want to pay very much for him.

I watched a lot of him this year by accident, I had JHF in my fantasy draft league and kept getting Bergman confused for him.

He is an excellent young player. Would be thrilled to have him on our list.

 

[Joffaboy]

P9 and their future first and try get into the top 5.

Can’t see any of those clubs taking that deal.

Tigers keep 1.

Trade 6+ something else for 2.

Eagles retain 3.

Crows retain 4

Melbourne retain 5 and are trying for 11.

North comes in at 6 and likely takes Tauru.

But that means losing two frdp's.
Would it be better to retain the frdp by training for a F1?

 

[stavro#4]

But that means losing two frdp's.
Would it be better to retain the frdp by training for a F1?

I agree.

That’s why I was pointing out how unlikely the above would be for the Dons to move up.

They may trade for the giants 2 picks. They may get 15+16+21 for 9 Shiel and Stringer.