USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris (pt II)

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If not for the gerrymandering, I wonder how many Republican Presidents there would have been.
Presidents who won the presidency dispute losing the popular vote. George W and Trump are the only two republican presidents this century, and both lost the poplar vote.

Noting Bush won the popular vote in 2004 but Al Gore would have been the incumbent then and likely re won.
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Ex-UK Tory politician on the radio yesterday with his theory that polling companies are so rattled by how wrong they all got it in 2016 that all they ever do now is predict it will be close.

He reckons Harris will win in a canter but the pollsters are terrified to say so

Whatevs.
I didn't hear this interview but I've heard him say the same thing 4-5 times now in the last couple of weeks. I'm not necessarily sure if I buy his argument and it's a little unnerving the surety of his case.

But I could listen to Rory Stewart all day so :shrug:
 
Ex-UK Tory politician on the radio yesterday with his theory that polling companies are so rattled by how wrong they all got it in 2016 that all they ever do now is predict it will be close.

He reckons Harris will win in a canter but the pollsters are terrified to say so

Whatevs.
Its funny, based on Harris turnouts and Trump's tantrums and rambling word salad rallies, I am inclined to agree then I check myself from maybe it is hopeful thinking.
 
Presidents who won the presidency dispute losing the popular vote. George W and Trump are the only two republican presidents this century, and both lost the poplar vote.

Noting Bush won the popular vote in 2004 but Al Gore would have been the incumbent then and likely re won.
View attachment 2151531
I saw a tweet from Rutherford B Hayes that said '' I got the highest turnout ever, the hugest of all time , nobody got more ''

Followed up by '' In your face Donny boy ''
 
That's a lot of words to say that he lost by 7m+ votes.
Also omits that due to the rule of “anything trump accuses others of is projecting guilt of what he has actually done) I think that trumps vote was artificially inflated and he still lost

What a ****ing loser
 
Listening to the great JDV on Theo Von's podcast while driving, one of the most profound comments made (and there were many!) was "some people are thinkers, some people are repeaters". Check the amount of X posts spammed here everyday to see who makes up the latter category!
JD Vance is about as inauthentic as you can get. Pretends to be middle class, but went to Yale.

He just rides the wave of whatever works best for him politically. If Trump loses the election, watch him jump ship and return to his 2016 rhetoric on Trump.

It is perhaps not a surprise he has fooled you.
 

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Can somebody help me?

It appears to be 4 voting blocks, MAGA Repblicans, non-MAGA Republicans. Democrats and Independents

Are there any polls available that splits up Registered voters of each group and whether they intend to vote at the election?

Suggest that Registered MAGA Republicans will vote but what about the Non-MAGA Republicans? Are they going to vote, vote the party ticket or vote for Harris because the don't want Trump?

Suggest that Register Democrats will vote Democrats, but what percentage are thinking about not voting?

What about Registered Independent's, are they going to vote and is there any split on which party they will vote for?

Raw figures of voting intentions don't go into enough detail of these subgroups which may or not tip the race either way

I would suggest that internal polling of both parties would address this issue but the reporting of polls doesn't appear to go into the subtlety
 
I was watching a good Bulwark pod this morning. The guest explained it while talking about the Kelly thing, is all about how the right is presenting the story to its consumers. They are either a) not covering it at all, or b) going with it was yet another lefty/woke attack on Trump.
Miller then pulls up the google. Sure enough first hits are about Harris and immigration. Then its Shapiro at the Wire reporting it is the MEDIA that are putting out the Hitler slur on Trump. No mention it was Kelly his CoS, his longest serving CoS who was saying it.
This is the problem. The emergence of media that is not journalistic and bound by those ethics and mores. Lap dog Kilmeade shows Fox's take on it.
 
Listening to the great JDV on Theo Von's podcast while driving, one of the most profound comments made (and there were many!) was "some people are thinkers, some people are repeaters". Check the amount of X posts spammed here everyday to see who makes up the latter category!
Are you just repeating something from a podcast to criticise people who repeat things as non-thinkers?

The self awareness is weak within you it seems....
 
JD Vance is about as inauthentic as you can get. Pretends to be middle class, but went to Yale.

He just rides the wave of whatever works best for him politically. If Trump loses the election, watch him jump ship and return to his 2016 rhetoric on Trump.

It is perhaps not a surprise he has fooled you.
What name is he using this week?
 
All the voting maths works in the democrats favour. He would have to defy all logic and history to win enough votes after alienating a 3rd of the republican party. Democrats will come out en masse to vote like last time. As I have said numerous times, its one thing to troll and gaslight democrats with pro Trump propaganda for a laugh and even say you will vote Trump in the election, but its on a whole nother level to go find a voting booth, stand in line and then tick his box. This is where the Trump campaign will be a failure for the whole world to see.
I Hope Please GIF
 
For those concerned about the Cheney bloc take a moment to go back to 2022

Now it wasnt Cheney but I bet it made a lot of Non-Trumplicans take pause

Pre-REDWAVE in 2022


In a series of remarks over the last few days, President Joe Biden has made his strategy heading into the 2022 midterm elections crystal clear: Appeal to Republicans who don’t align themselves with Donald Trump or his broader “Make America Great Again” coalition.

At his speech in Philadelphia last Thursday, Biden said this:

Now, I want to be very clear, very clear up front: Not every Republican, not even the majority of Republicans, are MAGA Republicans. Not every Republican embraces their extreme ideology.

“I know because I’ve been able to work with these mainstream Republicans.”


Its not a stretch to imagine the Harris Dems continue this if the strategy was sound - NO Redwave

Again I am old enough to remember Dick Cheney but Liz Cheney has been doing most of the driving - so I dont see a negative to this
 
JD Vance is about as inauthentic as you can get. Pretends to be middle class, but went to Yale.

He just rides the wave of whatever works best for him politically. If Trump loses the election, watch him jump ship and return to his 2016 rhetoric on Trump.

It is perhaps not a surprise he has fooled you.
Spot on. He’s just a shifty opportunist. Not to be trusted. At least with Trump what you see is what you get. As Salma Hayek noted, he’s not putting on an act. He’s just strange.
 
Are Young Republicans really eating the MAGA chud? Dace Potas is 23 years old and Conservative

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opin...-conservative-candidate-election/74674335007/

Vice President Kamala Harris’ progressive ideology is entirely off-putting for conservatives. But many of us know that a vote for former President Donald Trump would signal to the GOP that the current MAGA direction of the Republican Party is acceptable. It is not.

Neither is a good option for us, especially for the younger conservatives who have heard stories of what the Republican Party used to be but have only had Trump as a presidential option.
Even if we align more with Trump’s GOP on policy, we oppose both the increase in state power that comes with his philosophy and attaching ourselves to his moral bankruptcy.

I think it's ultimately on Gen Z conservatives to fix things.

Nobody from Gen Z has had the chance to vote for a Republican presidential nominee besides Trump, a fact that is particularly frustrating for young, small government conservatives like me. We entered the voting bloc during the peak of Trump’s influence, and we had little influence on how we got here. MAGA was our only choice.

That has to change.

Personally, I see two paths to change. One is quick, unreliable, wishful thinking. The other is a long, difficult road, but it is more likely to leave a lasting impact.

The first is that in the event of a Trump loss, the GOP recognizes that electorally, the current path forward is less and less viable.

The more likely path for us is a longer-term strategy to capture young voters and build a new generation of Reagan conservatives. Already established political minds ar
e hard to sway, but in the same way that the MAGA movement captured the youth over the past several election cycles, we need to do the same in those to come.

He lost me at Reagan Conservatives but his overall message is those who think Gen Z - especially the BroMales - are going all in for DonOld need to reconsider
 
The financial impacts on any country looking to fight a major war would be well into the trillions which means the chances of any country chasing a world war is very slim. Governments simply dont have the money.
The trillions have already been spent, all of China Nth Korea (which btw has a smaller economy than Tasmania, if I am correct), Iran, Israeal and liberal democratic allies have already spent the trillions.

Pardon the pun, everybody (nation) have already built their war chest. It's not like they're all starting from scratch and going shopping for arms, they've already got (most) of their arms.

The relevance is that Trump, if you take him at his word, has paraphrased he wants to go home and play with himself i:e he wants the US to be isolated, so the narrative is 'the US first and don't care about anyone else'.

If he follows through, then Ukraine and Taiwan are much easier to annex, the allies would have to majorly beef up the defence effort to avoid the annexation.

If Harris wins, the US can be relied on as an ally, like it is now. If Trump gets in, well........... that's the direct impact to the world outside the US
 
For those concerned about the Cheney bloc take a moment to go back to 2022

Now it wasnt Cheney but I bet it made a lot of Non-Trumplicans take pause

Pre-REDWAVE in 2022


In a series of remarks over the last few days, President Joe Biden has made his strategy heading into the 2022 midterm elections crystal clear: Appeal to Republicans who don’t align themselves with Donald Trump or his broader “Make America Great Again” coalition.

At his speech in Philadelphia last Thursday, Biden said this:

Now, I want to be very clear, very clear up front: Not every Republican, not even the majority of Republicans, are MAGA Republicans. Not every Republican embraces their extreme ideology.

“I know because I’ve been able to work with these mainstream Republicans.”


Its not a stretch to imagine the Harris Dems continue this if the strategy was sound - NO Redwave

Again I am old enough to remember Dick Cheney but Liz Cheney has been doing most of the driving - so I dont see a negative to this

The parts of “the base” the Democrats are struggling with for turnout are progressives, people under 40 and Arab Americans. The Cheney name is not good with these groups (to be fair to Liz, she’s not her father and isn’t guilty of doing what her father did, but also is incredibly bad in her own right and has fully supported his legacy - it seems her biggest disagreement with him was his support of LGBT rights).

Polls by party allegiance show that she is generally popular with Democrats and incredibly unpopular with Republicans and independents. I think it’s worth considering that she may turn more people off than bring in.
 

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USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris (pt II)

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