USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris (pt II)

[wilsonmatic]

Trump 2024 let's get it!
Kamala

 

[campbell]

Have just listened to the last 538 podcast before polling day and my conclusion is that none of the pollsters know anything.

For example, half the pollsters are weighting by previous vote (even when people can't recall who they voted for or say they voted for the winner when they didn't) and half are not. So, we have an experiment. Fine. But in a proper experiment, scientists don't start announcing the results halfway through. I get that they have to because they're generally paid for by media organisations, but in reality they don't know any more than the rest of us.

Then there's the treatment of different plls. Discussion about the Selzter poll in Iowa was that it was an outlier, because it was markedly different from what it recorded before, but then the New York Times rep noted that their own poll had seen a 4 point shift to Trump in Pennsylvania in the past few weeks, but for some reason that wasn't an outlier....

The weighting thing - pollsters have spent a lot of time weighting for race, education and past vote. All good but then, haven't weighted for (for example) women and young voters, because they don't know what they are going to be. They might note that the two biggest issues in the 2022 midterms were abortion and democracy, but the focus is still on economic issues only. Maybe, just maybe, one of those 22 issues might be important for a sizeable portion of the population?

At least 538 does acknowledge:

And this is the big, fundamental problem with preelection polling: We don't know what the demographic and political composition of the actual electorate will be, so pollsters are just making the best guesses they can. Those guesses have always, and will always, come with error attached to them.

So, what we have is an educated guess. Something slightly better than reading tea leaves but not as scientific as it's presented to be.

US pollsters are like old generals, always fighting the last war. That may be unavoidable, but stop presenting data like it means anything.

They are all saving face....Close call. Good call. They are not ridiculed. Still have a good name.

Nothing more, nothing less.

 

[2 eazy]

Polls has meant **** all to me since 2016 where Clinton was heavily favourite to win and common sense dictated that Trump shouldn’t be the leader of the most powerful and most influential country in the world

I hate this timeline

Problem is politicians in USA have treated their citizens like garbage inky serving the rich so they attach to Trump as he appears as a populist which in reality he isn't

 

[Maggie5]

You didn't see the recent SpaceX landing m8? Breathtaking it was.

View attachment 2158474

Courtesy of $15 Billion in government grants/contracts (mostly Democrat initiated).

 

[_Cerberus_]

Based on an interpretation of murky polling data, race fundamentals, vibes, and some hopium, I'll put this forward as my prediction for tomorrow:

Spoiler: Harris 292-246 Trump, Map

View attachment 2158464

Darkest 10%+, dark shade 5-10%, light shade 2-5%, lightest 0-2%.

Harris wins the popular vote by 5-6%. EC vote gets called for her on late Wednesday morning EST.

Donold declares himself the winner by 8PM EST Tuesday and throws another two-month long tantrum.

Senate goes 49-51, R control

House goes 220-215, D control

I had a similar prediction. I think Harris wins Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada. Trump wins Georgia and Arizona. North Carolina is a toss up, and I am leaning slightly towards Trump. Probably the only difference between our predictions.

Despite the good trends in Iowa, I don't think it will flip. But it will be a lot closer than last time.

Republicans have had the better of early voting so far. But my feel is that it is more to do with a shift from election day, in person voting. To early in person and mail in voting. Than a shift in voting preferences.

 

[geoffjennings79]

Never thought I’d agree so strongly and wholeheartedly with a Carlton supporter, but here we are.

Sadly there are lunatics across all clubs who admire Trump. The rest of us, also across all 18 clubs, abhor the racist, misogynistic and homophobic idiocy expressed by Trump and his supporters - in the US and on BF.

I'm in furious agreement with many posters on here who value humanity and society above division and fascism.

I'm not a Harris or Dems supporter or fan.

I just don't want the orange buffoon let loose in the WH again, as this time his backers have him primed to do a lot more damage, domestically and globally, to his opponents, women, various minorities, other nations, geopolitical stability and the planet.

 

[2 eazy]

I remember being on a airplane trip to Singapore from Manila anyway I sat next to an American women and we starting talking about our different countries and she was gobsmacked how much cheaper our medicine is, our high minimum wage, maternity leave and rare gun violence. Even how NDIS will help pay for your nursing home fees if you cannot afford it. She went from USA greatest nation on Earth to how to I become an Australian citizen.

 

[Spirit Level]

Like the auto electrician near us..big Trump flags a massive turn off

Alan seems incredibly dense.

Don't be like Alan

 

[aCunningPlan]

Have just listened to the last 538 podcast before polling day and my conclusion is that none of the pollsters know anything.

For example, half the pollsters are weighting by previous vote (even when people can't recall who they voted for or say they voted for the winner when they didn't) and half are not. So, we have an experiment. Fine. But in a proper experiment, scientists don't start announcing the results halfway through. I get that they have to because they're generally paid for by media organisations, but in reality they don't know any more than the rest of us.

Then there's the treatment of different plls. Discussion about the Selzter poll in Iowa was that it was an outlier, because it was markedly different from what it recorded before, but then the New York Times rep noted that their own poll had seen a 4 point shift to Trump in Pennsylvania in the past few weeks, but for some reason that wasn't an outlier....

The weighting thing - pollsters have spent a lot of time weighting for race, education and past vote. All good but then, haven't weighted for (for example) women and young voters, because they don't know what they are going to be. They might note that the two biggest issues in the 2022 midterms were abortion and democracy, but the focus is still on economic issues only. Maybe, just maybe, one of those 22 issues might be important for a sizeable portion of the population?

At least 538 does acknowledge:

And this is the big, fundamental problem with preelection polling: We don't know what the demographic and political composition of the actual electorate will be, so pollsters are just making the best guesses they can. Those guesses have always, and will always, come with error attached to them.

So, what we have is an educated guess. Something slightly better than reading tea leaves but not as scientific as it's presented to be.

US pollsters are like old generals, always fighting the last war. That may be unavoidable, but stop presenting data like it means anything.

God bless compulsory voting.

 

[2 eazy]

I had a similar prediction. I think Harris wins Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada. Trump wins Georgia and Arizona. North Carolina is a toss up, and I am leaning slightly towards Trump. Probably the only difference between our predictions.

Despite the good trends in Iowa, I don't think it will flip. But it will be a lot closer than last time.

Republicans have had the better of early voting so far. But my feel is that it is more to do with a shift from election day, in person voting. To early in person and mail in voting. Than a shift in voting preferences.

NYT has Michigan and Pennsylvania tied she cannot win The White House without these states

 

[aCunningPlan]

I remember being on a airplane trip to Singapore from Manila anyway I sat next to an American women and we starting talking about our different countries and she was gobsmacked how much cheaper our medicine is, our high minimum wage, maternity leave and rare gun violence. Even how NDIS will help pay for your nursing home fees if you cannot afford it. She went from USA greatest nation on Earth to how to I become an Australian citizen.

Long service leave really blows their minds.

 

[Spearman]

Joe was a republican congressman

Which he never fails to mention every show, along with being a country lawyer.

 

[Satan]

Long service leave really blows their minds.

4 weeks annual leave , cup dayo

 

[smelly cat]

Courtesy of $15 Billion in government grants/contracts (mostly Democrat initiated).

Considering the democrats only got 7 EV charging stations from $5billion, I'm going to disagree and say it mostly courtesy of Musk.

Pete Buttigieg ridiculed for Joe Biden's $7.5 billion "massive failure"

The U.S. Transportation Secretary is receiving backlash on social media for the department's slow roll out of electrical vehicle chargers.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Spearman]

All these people have no real beliefs, and he’s each other when it’s convenient.

The only thing they believe in is they should be called and thought of as virtuous, moral and correct people at all times, no matter what they say or do.

and get paid

 

[Ghost Patrol]

Like the auto electrician near us..big Trump flags a massive turn off

They came down from Mara Lago
In a burned out blue FJ….

 

[Spearman]

The writers strike sent me to more online spaces for news and I haven’t gone back, and I think I’m much better for it.

I mean I used to watch Bill bloody Maher.

Good show if Maher would shut his effin mouth. Sometimes some good guests and interviewees.

 

[Gethelred]

OK didn't Trump exempt Australia from tariffs form steel and aluminium. My point is our lives in Australia won't change much regardless who is president.

This is - again - a moving of the goalposts.

Trump's foreign policy has always been isolationist, and has always been entirely about getting the best end of any deal his country enters into. Whether that ****s up an ally or tears up a treaty, he doesn't give a shit.

As for the notion that "our lives in Australia won't change much regardless of who is president", where's Carringbush2010 when you need them?

 

[burge13]

This is - again - a moving of the goalposts.

Trump's foreign policy has always been isolationist, and has always been entirely about getting the best end of any deal his country enters into. Whether that ****s up an ally or tears up a treaty, he doesn't give a shit.

As for the notion that "our lives in Australia won't change much regardless of who is president", where's Carringbush2010 when you need them?

It won't. Turn off social media, stop imagining Trump as Hitler and your life on a day to day basis won't change one iota. If it does, you have bigger problems than Trump

Bookmark it, come back to me in 6 months if Trump wins. No need to argue now

 

[Maggie5]

Considering the democrats only got 7 EV charging stations from $5billion, I'm going to disagree and say it mostly courtesy of Musk.

Pete Buttigieg ridiculed for Joe Biden's $7.5 billion "massive failure"

The U.S. Transportation Secretary is receiving backlash on social media for the department's slow roll out of electrical vehicle chargers.

www.newsweek.com

I thought the money was for charging stations built by end of this decade. Still another 6 years to go.

Or are you saying the whole $5B has already been spent and only 7 charging stations have been built?

 

[Crankyhawk]

Have just listened to the last 538 podcast before polling day and my conclusion is that none of the pollsters know anything.

For example, half the pollsters are weighting by previous vote (even when people can't recall who they voted for or say they voted for the winner when they didn't) and half are not. So, we have an experiment. Fine. But in a proper experiment, scientists don't start announcing the results halfway through. I get that they have to because they're generally paid for by media organisations, but in reality they don't know any more than the rest of us.

Then there's the treatment of different plls. Discussion about the Selzter poll in Iowa was that it was an outlier, because it was markedly different from what it recorded before, but then the New York Times rep noted that their own poll had seen a 4 point shift to Trump in Pennsylvania in the past few weeks, but for some reason that wasn't an outlier....

The weighting thing - pollsters have spent a lot of time weighting for race, education and past vote. All good but then, haven't weighted for (for example) women and young voters, because they don't know what they are going to be. They might note that the two biggest issues in the 2022 midterms were abortion and democracy, but the focus is still on economic issues only. Maybe, just maybe, one of those 22 issues might be important for a sizeable portion of the population?

At least 538 does acknowledge:

And this is the big, fundamental problem with preelection polling: We don't know what the demographic and political composition of the actual electorate will be, so pollsters are just making the best guesses they can. Those guesses have always, and will always, come with error attached to them.

So, what we have is an educated guess. Something slightly better than reading tea leaves but not as scientific as it's presented to be.

US pollsters are like old generals, always fighting the last war. That may be unavoidable, but stop presenting data like it means anything.

May as well stop doing polls altogether. At least publicly published ones (they can pay $ for “private” ones all they like)

 

[NSWCROW]

I remember in 2020 like 4 people came in when Trump was ahead, laughed at how good it was, but claimed they didn't really care and disappeared soon as postals got counted and Biden stormed ahead never to return

Who could forget this banger



Had never even seen this bozo, nor interacted with him before i got that lol

 

[QuietB]

OK didn't Trump exempt Australia from tariffs form steel and aluminium. My point is our lives in Australia won't change much regardless who is president.

lol - how much steel and aluminium does Australia sell to the US?

How much anything do we sell them?

 

[Crankyhawk]

I remember being on a airplane trip to Singapore from Manila anyway I sat next to an American women and we starting talking about our different countries and she was gobsmacked how much cheaper our medicine is, our high minimum wage, maternity leave and rare gun violence. Even how NDIS will help pay for your nursing home fees if you cannot afford it. She went from USA greatest nation on Earth to how to I become an Australian citizen.

Family member who has visited USA a few times commented on the inability to find fruit and veg (things we take for granted in every Coles/ Aldi/ woolies) everything is prepackaged

 

[Dirty_banchez]

God bless compulsory voting.

It should be entrenched in our constitution.