Fixture 2025 Fixture Discussion

[Grasshopper17]

$250 in section 407

Am I missing something here ?

View attachment 2225325

Looks like $80 or so if you buy extra tickets as a member. Not a bad discount.


Still much more than tickets in Melbourne. Looks like we're becoming victims of the basic economics of supply and demand.

We need a bigger stadium!!

 

[Big Sauce 21]

"The game of the people, for the people"

Something I'd expect woolworths to do

 

[Grasshopper17]

Updated models ahead of this arvo's match sim:


So we're slightly up from the 14.7 a few weeks ago. Still slight underdogs for away games against Hawthorn and Geelong, but favourites in all the rest.

 

[Elixuh]

Updated models ahead of this arvo's match sim:
View attachment 2230714

So we're slightly up from the 14.7 a few weeks ago. Still slight underdogs for away games against Hawthorn and Geelong, but favourites in all the rest.

View attachment 2230721

 

[Tom14]

Updated models ahead of this arvo's match sim:
View attachment 2230714

So we're slightly up from the 14.7 a few weeks ago. Still slight underdogs for away games against Hawthorn and Geelong, but favourites in all the rest.

View attachment 2230721

Nearly time for the stats thread.

Think I’m going to really half-arse it this year and let you do all the work again. I’m going to keep yapping about xscore though.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Nearly time for the stats thread.

Think I’m going to really half-arse it this year and let you do all the work again. I’m going to keep yapping about xscore though.

Like this you mean?

 

[Bucking Beads]

Will they open up more tickets to go on sale for the Round 4 game at the MCG?

 

[Section 5]

David King names his top 8 for the 2025 AFL season

Kingy's prediction.

www.sen.com.au

Top 4
(in no particular order)
Fremantle
GWS
Hawthorn
Geelong
The next 4
Brisbane
Collingwood
Adelaide
Gold Coast/Melbourne
“I have left out Port Adelaide, Carlton and the Dogs given their injury woes.”

 

[BuntonRules]

David King names his top 8 for the 2025 AFL season

Kingy's prediction.

www.sen.com.au

Top 4
(in no particular order)
Fremantle
GWS
Hawthorn
Geelong
The next 4
Brisbane
Collingwood
Adelaide
Gold Coast/Melbourne
“I have left out Port Adelaide, Carlton and the Dogs given their injury woes.”

Ah, Kingy. So much egg on your face last year - and already you are lining up for more.

The gift that keeps giving.

 

[Tricky Dicky]

Ah, Kingy. So much egg on your face last year - and already you are lining up for more.

The gift that keeps giving.

David Double-Down

 

[BuntonRules]

We may not climb the mountain again, but anyone that does not have us top 4, at this stage of the year, is either a fool - or has an agenda.

 

[Grasshopper17]

We may not climb the mountain again, but anyone that does not have us top 4, at this stage of the year, is either a fool - or has an agenda.

I found it!

 

[Elixuh]

Nearly time for the stats thread.

Think I’m going to really half-arse it this year and let you do all the work again. I’m going to keep yapping about xscore though.

My six month off-season is preparing myself for xscore disappointment.

 

[Lace Out]

We may not climb the mountain again, but anyone that does not have us top 4, at this stage of the year, is either a fool - or has an agenda.

Doesn’t rate our brand,which is currently “won the most recent premiership “

 

[Grasshopper17]

Updated models ahead of this arvo's match sim:
View attachment 2230714

So we're slightly up from the 14.7 a few weeks ago. Still slight underdogs for away games against Hawthorn and Geelong, but favourites in all the rest.

View attachment 2230721

No big changes after the match sims. I know some models do take into account (to a limited extent) the practice matches, so we might see some larger changes after this week of matches. I got this screenshot before Tuesday night's match:

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

I'd love to know what the FMI model sees in the Dees that no-one else does

 

[Saucery]

Ah, Kingy. So much egg on your face last year - and already you are lining up for more.

The gift that keeps giving.

Must have killed him just to include us in the top 8, although 5th so he can claim we were just on the cusp when things inevitably go **** up for him.

 

[Grasshopper17]

I'd love to know what the FMI model sees in the Dees that no-one else does

View attachment 2236320

I actually believe it's because they haven't updated their model for 3 years

Apparently Mr Squiggle needs to tidy this up and hasn't got around to it yet.

 

[Section 5]

I actually believe it's because they haven't updated their model for 3 years

Apparently Mr Squiggle needs to tidy this up and hasn't got around to it yet.

All fixed now.

 

[Grasshopper17]

All fixed now.

Ah yes, daytime TV. Must be 30+ years since I've watched that rubbish.

Thanks for that little piece of nostalgia

 

[Grasshopper17]

No big changes after the match sims. I know some models do take into account (to a limited extent) the practice matches, so we might see some larger changes after this week of matches. I got this screenshot before Tuesday night's match:

View attachment 2236253

View attachment 2236255

An hour from the start of Round 1, our expected wins are slightly up to 15.18. Expecting to see larger shifts in these numbers as the season proper gets underway.



Hawthorn have really jumped up after their opening round win:

 

[Grasshopper17]

An hour from the start of Round 1, our expected wins are slightly up to 15.18. Expecting to see larger shifts in these numbers as the season proper gets underway.

View attachment 2247948

Hawthorn have really jumped up after their opening round win:

View attachment 2247953

We pick up about 0.45 expected wins from the Swans game, but broadly speaking the models were unconvinced by our performance, dropping our expected wins across our remaining 22 games by a total of 0.16, for a net gain of around 0.29. This seems a bit unfair given our likelihood of victory over the Swans (55%) generally equates to a 4-5 point victory, which obviously we were right on.

It could equally be that the models have favourably reweighted all the other teams we are still to play twice, which given they include the 3 biggest winners from Round 1: Geelong, Collingwood and the Suns, this actually seems fair enough.

We're on a hiding to nothing this Sunday, with a 92% probability of victory, so unless we win by squillions, we're likely to have our ratings downgraded across most of the models.

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

We're on a hiding to nothing this Sunday, with a 92% probability of victory, so unless we win by squillions, we're likely to have our ratings downgraded across most of the models.

 

[Tricky Dicky]

Just went through our fixture.
Like how it gets tougher before the mid-season bye, and then again before the finals.

Between the Cats next week and Hawks at the MCG in Round 11, it's a relatively easy run.

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

Just went through our fixture.
Like how it gets tougher before the mid-season bye, and then again before the finals.

Between the Cats next week and Hawks at the MCG in Round 11, it's a relatively easy run.

Are you crazy man, shut up before the footy gods hear you