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Arr0w said:
Like most clubs, I doubt we will sign a DFA prior to the draft, as we could be looking at needs prior to assessing which type to acquire
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Likely correct. Only exceptions likely to be DFAs that have more than one suitor. Point is, we do have the flexibility to take one now if we want to.
 

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Bletch said:
If we were going to take him, why wouldn't we pick up McMahon as a DFA, rather than risk him in the rookie draft?

What makes you so sure we won't take a DFA? I really don't know either way, but we certainly have the capacity to do so.
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Because we don't need to take up a list spot , he will be available in the RD.

Austin has pretty much said we won't be getting a DFA.
 
Bletch said:
Wish I had a dollar for every time I've responded to this comment/question on this thread!

We currently have 7 available spots, meaning 7 picks at the draft. The 7th is a round 5 pick, pick 89. It's worth zero points. Using it on a DFA prior to the draft doesn't hurt our ability to match bids one iota.
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You're not getting it.

The last open list spot in the ND will be used on Boyd

All other picks with points post 38 will be used on campos. Maybe 38 also, who knows, depends what we do and where bids come in on draft night.

We need as many open list spots as picks with points basically
 
bluesDeluxe said:
You're not getting it.

The last open list spot in the ND will be used on Boyd

All other picks with points post 38 will be used on campos. Maybe 38 also, who knows, depends what we do and where bids come in on draft night.

We need as many open list spots as picks with points basically
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No, you're not getting it.

Boyd gets upgraded after the ND.

We have plenty of points to match bids for the Campos.

We currently have six picks worth points - 3, 38, 63, 68, 69, 72

We have 31 listed primary players, and 4 rookie players (not counting Cat-B). That's a total of 35, from a maximum of 42 - 7 available spots. There's also a maximum of 38 on the primary list. 38 - 31 = 7. So, as things stand right now, we will take 7 picks to the draft.

That 7th pick will translate to a 5th round pick (89) worth zero points. It's practically useless as a pick for matching bids. It is also not required to upgrade Boyd (as we won't use all 7 picks in the draft on players).

So, that pick can be used now if we want to. And for the record, I don't think it's likely that we will, but we absolutely have the flexibility to take a DFA selection now if we want to.

Further detail in the threadmarked post:
Bletch said:
Current draft picks: 3, 38, 63, 68, 69, 72, 89 (total points: 2938)

List changes:
Out: 10 - Domanic Akuei (Delisted), David Cuningham (Delisted), Caleb Marchbank (Delisted), Jack Martin (Delisted), Alex Mirkov (Delisted), Matt Owies (Trade - WCE), Matt Kennedy (Trade - WB), Jack Carroll (Delisted), Matt Carroll (Delisted), Sam Durdin (Delisted)
In: 1 - Nick Haynes (GWS - UFA)
Uncontracted: 0
Retained SSP/MSD Players: 1 - Cooper Lord
Upgraded Rookie: 0

List status:
Primary - 31 (36-38)
Rookie - 4 (0-6)
Cat-B Rookie - 1 (0-2)
Total - 36 (44)

Free spots - 5 primary, 2 rookie, plus one Cat-B rookie

Note - Matt Duffy (Ireland) likely to take the free Cat-B rookie
Note 2 - Jordan Boyd (Rookie) needs to be upgraded, and will likely take one senior spot

Effective free spots - 4 primary, 3 rookie

As it stands, we can take 4 picks to the draft - 3, 38, 63, 68.

If we make 2 further cuts, we can take all 6 - 3, 38, 63, 68, 69, 72.

With the three delistings on 22-Oct, we now have 7 picks available at the draft. All remaining players are contracted. There is potential for adding a DFA in the upcoming DFA period (starting 1-Nov), as pick 89 is essentially useless in the draft (doesn't carry any points).

Those two delistings must come from Jack Carroll, Sam Durdin, and Matt Carroll, all who remain uncontracted. It can be any of these three, as it is limited by both (i) the maximum of 38 on the primary list; AND (ii) the maximum of 42 on primary+rookie (not counting Cat-B).

How we approach this will depend on what we intend to do with pick 38. "Pick Swap" trading opens tomorrow, so potentially, we could swap it out during that period (maybe for a future). Swapping it for an earlier pick will be difficult, as we don't have a lot of leverage to do so - unless we're prepared to move pick 3 down, which I think is highly unlikely.

There's a further opportunity to do a "live trade" of pick 38 on draft night. Including the option to trade it out when a bid comes in, and trade it back in afterwards (would likely lose some value, but not as much as option (i) below.

Or, we can just leave it. In which case:
(i) a bid comes in for Ben Camporeale before our pick 38 (it may not be 38 by then, but wherever it is). In this case, pick 38 will be used for matching Ben, and we'll get a bit left over, probably enough for another pick in the 60s, but that will be a bit of a waste.
(ii) we just use pick 38 on Ben anyway - unlikely!!
(iii) we get lucky, and no bid comes in. We use pick 38 on another player available at that pick, and match bids on Ben and Lucas with the remaining picks.

It's a bit of a lottery as to whether a bid will come in or not. It's around the mark for where Ben should go. So you'd think we'd have some sort of plan to offload that pick. But who knows. It was a strange trade for us to make.

Let's look at where pick 38 is likely to end up. I posted this earlier:


Situation now:
Brisbane: 27, 34, 42, 43, 49, 60, 66
Essendon: 28, 31, 40, 46, 53, 54, 65
Gold Coast: 39, 41, 51, 61, 70, 76, 78

I'm still of the opinion Brisbane will down-trade 27, but let's say there's still two of their picks that come in before our 38, and both of those get consumed by the Ashcroft bid. Similarly, let's assume Essendon's first two picks go the same way (again, they could potentially downtrade). But that makes 4 picks that are consumed before ours. However, there are also picks inserted for Ashcroft, Lombard, Marshall and Kako. So 4 - 4 = 0. 38 stays at 38! It will not come in higher than that. It may come in a pick or two lower (39 or 40).

At pick 38, it's very much in the danger zone for a bid. It will then get consumed for matching Ben. We'll then have a 3rd pick at 63 (which will come in by quite a bit - maybe around 55). If a bid comes in for Lucas, we also grab that, otherwise, we'll rookie him, and potentially take a 4th selection in the draft.

Effectively though, unless we offload 38, we've probably traded Kennedy for pick 63 (~55), which is a bit sad imo.

Anyway, we'll know soon enough what further changes we make to the list. I expect 1-2 more delistings, probably Sam Durdin, then Matt Carroll. I think we keep Jack. (Edit: I was wrong about Jack!!)

Edit/Addition:
Matching Bid after 38
Ok, say we get to use our pick 38 on another player, no bid came in for Ben. Yay! But he gets a bid at pick 39. Do we have enough to pay with our remaining picks?

Pick 39 is 446 points. With the F/S discount, that comes down to 257 points to match.

Our next pick is 63. But as discussed in the previous section above, by the time that bid comes in, it will have come in to around pick 55. Maybe even a little lower. Pick 55 nets us 207 points, leaving 50 points still owing. We then go to the following pick, currently 68. That will have come in to maybe 58 or 59. Pick 59 is 158 points, so we'll easily cover Ben with those two picks, and have a couple of picks spare (in fact the extra points will earn us another late pick ~65).

Those remaining picks will be enough to cover a bid on Lucas at about pick 42. It's not likely he gets a bid that high, and if he does, we take a small deficit on our 2025 round 3 selection.

Does that mean we can use one or more of those late picks to bundle with 38 to move 38 higher?
Possibly. If we move 38 higher, we'd have to recalculate the whole kaboodle based on a following bid. e.g. we get 34 from Brisbane. What if a bid on Ben comes at 35? Without going through the whole steps above, in that case, the same two picks 63, 68 (~55/59) would be sufficient to match. We'd have enough left over to match a bid on Lucas at about 46 or so.

If instead, we took away say pick 69, and used it to combine with 38 to move up the order, we'd still be fine matching Ben with 63 and 68. But if a bid came in on Lucas before 57, we'd have to take a small deficit into 2025. Any bid after 57 we can match for free.

Edit/Addition 2 (following further delistings):
We made a total of three extra delistings on 22-Oct, this post has been updated to reflect those changes. Potentially will be updated again before the draft, if, for instance, we pick up a delisted free agent (which I think is likely). Parts of the original posted have been striked out rather than just deleted.
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bluesDeluxe said:
We actually don't have the flexibility, because we only want to add 5 to the main list - 4 ND plus boyd
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While it's most likely we'll take 4 ND picks, we do have the flexibility to take a DFA.
We would then be hoping for no bid on Lucas so we could take him as a Rookie, or if a bid came delist Fantasia after the ND and take him in the Rookie Draft.
 
Gary Rohan is the example I have in my head of exactly who we need. Specialist half forward flank, good pace and skill, genuine forward.

The smaller players we have playing in our forward line are just filling gaps. Low quality, not genuine forwards, can't read the game and don't have the skills. We really do need to get recruiting forwards badly.

Our problem is that to fill forward spots we keep taking players from other positions and putting them there rather than recruiting forwards and filling those spots that way. Players you do this with are generally limited.

Is Gary Rohan a good fit for us? If his body is fine and he can get in good shape definitely. But I'm not confident that he is sound and that may mean recruiting him would be a mistake.
 
gbatman said:
Gary Rohan is the example I have in my head of exactly who we need. Specialist half forward flank, good pace and skill, genuine forward.

The smaller players we have playing in our forward line are just filling gaps. Low quality, not genuine forwards, can't read the game and don't have the skills. We really do need to get recruiting forwards badly.

Our problem is that to fill forward spots we keep taking players from other positions and putting them there rather than recruiting forwards and filling those spots that way. Players you do this with are generally limited.

Is Gary Rohan a good fit for us? If his body is fine and he can get in good shape definitely. But I'm not confident that he is sound and that may mean recruiting him would be a mistake.
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Age, fitness issues and character issues all conspire against him. Yes he has that ability to do the mercurial but even at his peak how often did he produce? It is a no from me.
 
gbatman said:
Gary Rohan is the example I have in my head of exactly who we need. Specialist half forward flank, good pace and skill, genuine forward.

The smaller players we have playing in our forward line are just filling gaps. Low quality, not genuine forwards, can't read the game and don't have the skills. We really do need to get recruiting forwards badly.

Our problem is that to fill forward spots we keep taking players from other positions and putting them there rather than recruiting forwards and filling those spots that way. Players you do this with are generally limited.

Is Gary Rohan a good fit for us? If his body is fine and he can get in good shape definitely. But I'm not confident that he is sound and that may mean recruiting him would be a mistake.
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We don’t need a geriatric who has only ever played cameos in games.

While he may need a little more development to reach potential, Ashton Moir will have much more impact than recent Rohan in 2025.

The improvement Moir showed through the season was admirable. Few realise how far back he was coming from. To end the season with two impressive cameos in the top team was a huge bonus. Assuming he gets a full, unimpeded pre season in, he will be ready to contribute regularly to the team.

With a full complement of healthy mids, Elijah Hollands will also be capable of contributing forward if centre. Then there in Brodie Kemp who may well be deployed full time forward and the returning Jack Silvagni as talls. Sam Docherty then joins Zac Williams, Matt Cottrell, Lochie Fogarty, youngsters Corey Durdin and Jesse Motlop, with veteran Orazio Fantasia rounding out options.

We may well need another small forward longer term, but I like the prospect of giving our developing players the opportunity to shine before over investing on other options. (With a little luck, NGA prospect Tyson Gresham grows along with his game to give us a player in the range of his big brother’s ilk next year)
 
Coona Blues said:
We don’t need a geriatric who has only ever played cameos in games.

While he may need a little more development to reach potential, Ashton Moir will have much more impact than recent Rohan in 2025.

The improvement Moir showed through the season was admirable. Few realise how far back he was coming from. To end the season with two impressive cameos in the top team was a huge bonus. Assuming he gets a full, unimpeded pre season in, he will be ready to contribute regularly to the team.

With a full complement of healthy mids, Elijah Hollands will also be capable of contributing forward if centre. Then there in Brodie Kemp who may well be deployed full time forward and the returning Jack Silvagni as talls. Sam Docherty then joins Zac Williams, Matt Cottrell, Lochie Fogarty, youngsters Corey Durdin and Jesse Motlop, with veteran Orazio Fantasia rounding out options.

We may well need another small forward longer term, but I like the prospect of giving our developing players the opportunity to shine before over investing on other options. (With a little luck, NGA prospect Tyson Gresham grows along with his game to give us a player in the range of his big brother’s ilk next year)
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The silver lining from last year was that it showed the depth that we have at the club.

The selection committee should be bolder and back in the right mix for the opposition team, placing a bit more trust on the youth to allow them to shine :D
 

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gbatman said:
Gary Rohan is the example I have in my head of exactly who we need. Specialist half forward flank, good pace and skill, genuine forward.

The smaller players we have playing in our forward line are just filling gaps. Low quality, not genuine forwards, can't read the game and don't have the skills. We really do need to get recruiting forwards badly.

Our problem is that to fill forward spots we keep taking players from other positions and putting them there rather than recruiting forwards and filling those spots that way. Players you do this with are generally limited.

Is Gary Rohan a good fit for us? If his body is fine and he can get in good shape definitely. But I'm not confident that he is sound and that may mean recruiting him would be a mistake.
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I 'kinda' agree on his skillset but I don't think we need him with Gov on the list.
Gov is very similar, and if we are going to rob the backline to stock the forward line, I'd rather not recruit Rowan, and send Kemp back to defense, leaving Hayes to play intercept.
 
We should seriously move on from Sam Durdin, there’s plenty of evidence his body is clearly not up to it unfortunately, and that’s just off the back of only VFL game level…
 
FitzroyBlueBagger said:
We should seriously move on from Sam Durdin, there’s plenty of evidence his body is clearly not up to it unfortunately, and that’s just off the back of only VFL game level…
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Innes along with what happened with Cerra in Qatar has given them some hope

Time will tell. Big key defenders are hard to find. If he gets through And we can’t get anyone better what’s the harm?
 
I’ve been flip flopping on what I think the club should do with our rookie selections.

At stages I’ve thought we should get Phillips, DGB, Curtis Taylor, Hotton

And then others I’ve thought, there’s good in nearly every rookie draft, don’t miss it by hoping a failed player will come good.

I really don’t know which way to go, I would really like the club to replace Durdin with Phillips as a starting point though, Phillips was not afforded much time to prove himself.
 
Soapy V said:
Innes along with what happened with Cerra in Qatar has given them some hope

Time will tell. Big key defenders are hard to find. If he gets through And we can’t get anyone better what’s the harm?
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Even if he sorts out the injuries is he actually any good? From what I’ve seen of him he looks like the game has past him by.
 
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