bradfisher14
Not actually Brad Fisher
I think we could move from 38 up to Essendon's pick 28 before draft night.
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Why wouldn't we leave Lord on the rookie list for as long as we can?Lord (R)
Essendon, Brisbane and GC only have 3 picks inside it for 4 players. It’ll stay about where it is.Other picks will be swallowed with academy bids. Well end up with a pick in the 30-34 range. Highly doubt B. Campo gets picked up there
I think we could move from 38 up to Essendon's pick 28 before draft night.
We're always here. Looming.Waiting for the Kemp crew to arrive...
I think we'll hang on to Jack.Jack carroll with be delisted now.
You have to have available list spots for picks you take to the draft.
We have 5 picks and only 4 vacancies
I think we'll hang on to Jack.
Sam Durdin and Matt Carroll more likely to be delisted imo.
And there's still potential for pick 38 to be on-traded in the "pick-trade" period, starting tomorrow. Otherwise, I expect it will be live-traded on the night, perhaps for a future pick.
Because we run with 36/6 instead of 38/4 cutting rookies does get us to be able to use points from 2 extra picks.We'll want to delist jack so we can take all our picks to the draft. Can only take as many picks as we have list spots. Durdin and Matt Carroll don't help with that.
Do no want to touch Langford with a barge pole, as he may have talent but is slow and not what we need as we already have enough big bodied slow movers in our midfield thanks........."I feel the need, the need for speed!!!"So i guess it may, just may look something like this?
Draft….. O’Sullivan / Lalor / Draper / Langford
Draft….. Ben Camporeale
Draft….. Lucas Camporeale
Draft….. ??
Rookie Draft… Liam McMahon
SPP…… Denver Grainger-Barass
I'm not smart enough to figure out how we could make it work with our assets, but I just have a feeling that's the move considering Ess only care about points. Maybe we trade an F3 into this draft, then package that+whatever else we have to give them extra points to shuffle down. They also have pick 31 which could be slightly more realistic but I worry about Port bidding on Ben at 29, hence why I raised 28 as the one to target.With 38 and a pick in the 60s? Probably makes little difference to them as 28 or 38 will get eaten up by Kako.
I'm not smart enough to figure out how we could make it work with our assets, but I just have a feeling that's the move considering Ess only care about points. Maybe we trade an F3 into this draft, then package that+whatever else we have to give them extra points to shuffle down. They also have pick 31 which could be slightly more realistic but I worry about Port bidding on Ben at 29, hence why I raised 28 as the one to target.
Don't need to do that. And yes, they do. Can count up to 38 spots.We'll want to delist jack so we can take all our picks to the draft. Can only take as many picks as we have list spots. Durdin and Matt Carroll don't help with that.
Though I think there's a chance we rerookie Carroll. Good for mid depth now we've lost Kennedy.
Well damn, I guess we're cooked then.We don't have an extra F3 to use for a trade, and we have no picks to use to trade in an extra F3.
We really need to get ahead of the saints pick (do not know how though?) or sos will take his frustration out on us for not trading Kemp by bidding on it to stop us getting another kid in the draft.....apart from all the other muck on his liver that he cannot let go of about his old club that is!!!It has to be done beforehand. 38 for a future pick, so we are looking for how many list spots vs picks teams have left to be able to use 38 plus maintain any bid match picks they require. The way Austin said that this pick strengthened our draft hand made me think he was keeping it.
I don't see how we trade on the night as anyone who wants it will want to jump up to grab an available player, so will come for it right before we are on the clock. If a bid for Ben hasn't come, we will use the pick obviously.
It's a real narrow window to trade this. I hope it doesn't bit us. We may end up using the late picks for draft selections.
So someone with more understanding or a nice spreadsheet... How many list spots/rookie spots do we have after the trade period?
We really need to get ahead of the saints pick (do not know how though?) or sos will take his frustration out on us for not trading Kemp by bidding on it to stop us getting another kid in the draft.....apart from all the other muck on his liver that he cannot let go of about his old club that is!!!
Could we just let any of Carroll times 2 or Durdin, if we want to keep them; nominate for the national draft and just pick them up at the end? Would allow us to carry all our picks to the draft and it’s not like any other side would pick them.
Probably correct as I cannot imagine letting Jack Carroll go after Kennedy now leaving, especially as he wants more mid time as well, just like Bam Bam did. Sorry to see Kennedy go as what he lacked in talent he made up for with heart!!!We probably will let the rookies go, and then let them train on for an SSP spot after the drafts have gone.
Situation now:More detail...
Here are the relevant picks:
Brisbane: 27, 34, 42, 43, 49, 60, 66
Essendon: 28, 31, 40, 46, 54, 65
Gold Coast: 6, 23, 39, 41, 78
Brisbane will almost certainly do a draft-night trade of 27 for lower picks.
Essendon may well keep spend 28 and 31 on Kako, but could look to do similar to Brisbane.
Gold Coast will trade out 6 and 23 for Rioli, and prob look for some late picks back.
So matching bids for Ashcroft, Kako, Marshall and Lombard will push our 32 back to 36. Essendon using 28 and 31 will bring it back to 34. And that's about it. If we're lucky it might stay at 32, but could be as bad as 36.
In any case, that 32-36 range is right in the middle of expectations for a bid on Ben Camporeale, so it makes absolutely no sense for us to trade for a pick in that range, UNLESS, we were then looking to combine it with the Kennedy pick to move up the order.
Probably correct as I cannot imagine letting Jack Carroll go after Kennedy now leaving, especially as he wants more mid time as well, just like Bam Bam did. Sorry to see Kennedy go as what he lacked in talent he made up for with heart!!!
Thanks for this, Bletch. Appreciate what you do.Current draft picks: 3, 38, 63, 68, 69, 72 (total points: 2938)
List changes:
Out: 7 - Domanic Akuei (Delisted), David Cuningham (Delisted), Caleb Marchbank (Delisted), Jack Martin (Delisted), Alex Mirkov (Delisted), Matt Owies (Trade - WCE), Matt Kennedy (Trade - WB)
In: 1 - Nick Haynes (GWS - UFA)
Uncontracted: 0
Retained SSP/MSD Players: 1 - Cooper Lord
Upgraded Rookie: 0
List status:
Senior - 32 (36-38)
Rookie - 6 (0-6)
Cat-B Rookie - 1 (0-2)
Total - 39 (44)
Free spots - 4 senior plus one Cat-B rookie
Note - Matt Duffy (Ireland) likely to take the free Cat-B rookie
Note 2 - Jordan Boyd (Rookie) needs to be upgraded, and will likely take one senior spot
Effective free spots - 3 senior, 1 rookie
As it stands, we can take 4 picks to the draft - 3, 38, 63, 68.
If we make 2 further cuts, we can take all 6 - 3, 38, 63, 68, 69, 72.
Those two delistings must come from Jack Carroll, Sam Durdin, and Matt Carroll, all who remain uncontracted. It can be any of these three, as it is limited by both (i) the maximum of 38 on the primary list; AND (ii) the maximum of 42 on primary+rookie (not counting Cat-B).
How we approach this will depend on what we intend to do with pick 38. "Pick Swap" trading opens tomorrow, so potentially, we could swap it out during that period (maybe for a future). Swapping it for an earlier pick will be difficult, as we don't have a lot of leverage to do so - unless we're prepared to move pick 3 down, which I think is highly unlikely.
There's a further opportunity to do a "live trade" of pick 38 on draft night.
Or, we can just leave it. In which case:
(i) a bid comes in for Ben Camporeale before our pick 38 (it won't be 38 by then, but wherever it is). In this case, pick 38 will be used for matching Ben, and we'll get a bit left over, probably enough for another pick in the 60s, but that will be a bit of a waste.
(ii) we just use it on Ben anyway - unlikely!!
(iii) we use it on another player available at that pick, and match bids on Ben and Lucas with the remaining picks.
It's a bit of a lottery as to whether a bid will come in or not. It's around the mark for where Ben should go. So you'd think we'd have some sort of plan to offload that pick. But who knows. It was a strange trade for us to make.
Let's look at where pick 38 is likely to end up. I posted this earlier:
Situation now:
Brisbane: 27, 34, 42, 43, 49, 60, 66
Essendon: 28, 31, 40, 46, 53, 54, 65
Gold Coast: 39, 41, 51, 61, 70, 76, 78
I'm still of the opinion Brisbane will down-trade 27, but let's say there's still two of their picks that come in before our 38, and both of those get consumed by the Ashcroft bid. Similarly, let's assume Essendon's first two picks go the same way (again, they could potentially downtrade). But that makes 4 picks that are consumed before ours. However, there are also picks inserted for Ashcroft, Lombard, Marshall and Kako. So 4 - 4 = 0. 38 stays at 38! It will not come in higher than that. It may come in a pick or two lower (39 or 40).
At pick 38, it's very much in the danger zone for a bid. It will then get consumed for matching Ben. We'll then have a 3rd pick at 63 (which will come in by quite a bit - maybe around 55). If a bid comes in for Lucas, we also grab that, otherwise, we'll rookie him, and potentially take a 4th selection in the draft.
Effectively though, unless we offload 38, we've probably traded Kennedy for pick 63 (~55), which is a bit sad imo.
Anyway, we'll know soon enough what further changes we make to the list. I expect 1-2 more delistings, probably Sam Durdin, then Matt Carroll. I think we keep Jack.
This should be pinned. Brilliant post.Current draft picks: 3, 38, 63, 68, 69, 72 (total points: 2938)
List changes:
Out: 7 - Domanic Akuei (Delisted), David Cuningham (Delisted), Caleb Marchbank (Delisted), Jack Martin (Delisted), Alex Mirkov (Delisted), Matt Owies (Trade - WCE), Matt Kennedy (Trade - WB)
In: 1 - Nick Haynes (GWS - UFA)
Uncontracted: 0
Retained SSP/MSD Players: 1 - Cooper Lord
Upgraded Rookie: 0
List status:
Senior - 32 (36-38)
Rookie - 6 (0-6)
Cat-B Rookie - 1 (0-2)
Total - 39 (44)
Free spots - 4 senior plus one Cat-B rookie
Note - Matt Duffy (Ireland) likely to take the free Cat-B rookie
Note 2 - Jordan Boyd (Rookie) needs to be upgraded, and will likely take one senior spot
Effective free spots - 3 senior, 1 rookie
As it stands, we can take 4 picks to the draft - 3, 38, 63, 68.
If we make 2 further cuts, we can take all 6 - 3, 38, 63, 68, 69, 72.
Those two delistings must come from Jack Carroll, Sam Durdin, and Matt Carroll, all who remain uncontracted. It can be any of these three, as it is limited by both (i) the maximum of 38 on the primary list; AND (ii) the maximum of 42 on primary+rookie (not counting Cat-B).
How we approach this will depend on what we intend to do with pick 38. "Pick Swap" trading opens tomorrow, so potentially, we could swap it out during that period (maybe for a future). Swapping it for an earlier pick will be difficult, as we don't have a lot of leverage to do so - unless we're prepared to move pick 3 down, which I think is highly unlikely.
There's a further opportunity to do a "live trade" of pick 38 on draft night.
Or, we can just leave it. In which case:
(i) a bid comes in for Ben Camporeale before our pick 38 (it won't be 38 by then, but wherever it is). In this case, pick 38 will be used for matching Ben, and we'll get a bit left over, probably enough for another pick in the 60s, but that will be a bit of a waste.
(ii) we just use it on Ben anyway - unlikely!!
(iii) we use it on another player available at that pick, and match bids on Ben and Lucas with the remaining picks.
It's a bit of a lottery as to whether a bid will come in or not. It's around the mark for where Ben should go. So you'd think we'd have some sort of plan to offload that pick. But who knows. It was a strange trade for us to make.
Let's look at where pick 38 is likely to end up. I posted this earlier:
Situation now:
Brisbane: 27, 34, 42, 43, 49, 60, 66
Essendon: 28, 31, 40, 46, 53, 54, 65
Gold Coast: 39, 41, 51, 61, 70, 76, 78
I'm still of the opinion Brisbane will down-trade 27, but let's say there's still two of their picks that come in before our 38, and both of those get consumed by the Ashcroft bid. Similarly, let's assume Essendon's first two picks go the same way (again, they could potentially downtrade). But that makes 4 picks that are consumed before ours. However, there are also picks inserted for Ashcroft, Lombard, Marshall and Kako. So 4 - 4 = 0. 38 stays at 38! It will not come in higher than that. It may come in a pick or two lower (39 or 40).
At pick 38, it's very much in the danger zone for a bid. It will then get consumed for matching Ben. We'll then have a 3rd pick at 63 (which will come in by quite a bit - maybe around 55). If a bid comes in for Lucas, we also grab that, otherwise, we'll rookie him, and potentially take a 4th selection in the draft.
Effectively though, unless we offload 38, we've probably traded Kennedy for pick 63 (~55), which is a bit sad imo.
Anyway, we'll know soon enough what further changes we make to the list. I expect 1-2 more delistings, probably Sam Durdin, then Matt Carroll. I think we keep Jack.