20th AFL Team

[Purple Suit]

The numbers I've just shown you show that there is more available money for Canberrans.

And average wage means little compared to median wage. Rich miners aren't going to buy 10 memberships each.



That's not how median works. There's no distorting. It's the person in the middle regardless of higher or lower earners.

Very rough maths, but let's say the top 50% of earners in Perth can afford memberships. That means at the same price point, roughly the top 70% of earners in Canberra can afford memberships.

I'm not saying Perth doesn't have money. It's very well off compared to the rest of Australia. But Canberra is another level without mining skewing numbers.

It just means that for its size, the market of Canberra is disproportionate to its population.



Perth has a shit tonne of money. But with the lower median income, and West Coast and Freo sucking up the majority of money, WA3 has no more money than Canberra.



Manuka will be upgraded to 20k for the cricket. A bit on the low side, but good for starters.

I honestly think you're dreaming if you think you'll average 30k straight away. Especially in the second season once the excitement wears off. You'll get 15k against the Suns and Giants, which will be huge losses in a 60k stadium.

A sold out Manuka will net us similar to 30k at Optus.

I think a third Perth team will be fine. And I've got no qualms with WA3 in the long-term. But I can't stand it when people assume it's the safe financial option without even looking at the numbers.

I’m not dreaming of 30k, considering 2 games will be 60k sell outs with 55k rocking up.

The population is basically doubled from 1995 when Freo started, easily enough to support a 3rd team. If you line all the people up above the medium wage of Canberra, WA will simply have significantly more people on more money so your who has more cash available point isn’t true.

30k average is a lot more money than a 20k stadium can generate, espically with our prices. Hell, if they set the price point at Melbourne footy prices they would get 50k a game as we pay extortionate prices over here in comparison.

 

[Bjo187]

Thought it was 50k but 15k changes everything. Otherwise my answer would be because West Coast are shit and sell out on the regular when not.

Anyway I’m all in on Canberra. WAFC don’t want WA3 and I don’t think I it’s worth the drama for the AFL to pursue it.

Maybe one day if the WAFC changes their tune but that seems decades off.

I honestly don't understand why these morons in the wafc wouldn't want another club in their own state of 3 million people, in a competition of 20 clubs. It's mind blowing how incompetent that organisation is. Is a third club 'in their own state' good for the game, in their own state? Of course it is. How could anybody with any whiff of integrity on that committee think otherwise?

 

[Purple Suit]

The wait list is for a reserved seat. About 15k I think. But you can still book a ticket for almost any WC game easily. Why are those people not attending now? And even if half of those WC members on the waitlist changed clubs, that is not much of a start. And why would WC or Freo support the idea of another club that is going to cannibalise their support? And why would the other club votes in another long road trip each season? Don’t see how actually WA3 helps anybody.

Canberra is the go.

Only if you plan ahead or want single tickets. I just looked up the WC v Hawks game and can’t get 2 tickets for tomorrow.

The availability for walk up’s is extremely limited in WA and it’s where the AFL could generate more money. Half the AFL revenue comes from attendance after all.

 

[Walshawk]

Only if you plan ahead or want single tickets. I just looked up the WC v Hawks game and can’t get 2 tickets for tomorrow.

The availability for walk up’s is extremely limited in WA and it’s where the AFL could generate more money. Half the AFL revenue comes from attendance after all.

But the match day revenue does to the home club, so it would not benefit the AFL or other clubs.

Anyway, the AFL and broadcasters want full houses not half empty stadiums. Adding a 3rd club goes against all that.

 

[Coolangatta]

But the match day revenue does to the home club, so it would not benefit the AFL or other clubs.

Anyway, the AFL and broadcasters want full houses not half empty stadiums. Adding a 3rd club goes against all that.

That’s why Dillon said there’s a lot of work WA3 would need done. I think he’s full of shit to say that we don’t have the population or businesses to support a third side. Yet Victoria has for ten teams? Riiiight.

But maybe a 3rd WA club would be better off playing 8 of its 11 home games at Arena Joondalup to start with. 3 at Optus for derbies and the Pies/big four.

Better yet, if you want good crowds and a strong identity, south west WA would be a good spot for a team in 25-30 years or so.

ACT for team 20.

 

[Canberra Pear]

I’m not dreaming of 30k, considering 2 games will be 60k sell outs with 55k rocking up.

The population is basically doubled from 1995 when Freo started, easily enough to support a 3rd team.

You're right sorry. I meant 30k without the two derbies.

Still, to maintain 30k through the whole season, the rest of the crowds will average 24.4k.

This article said the WAFL grand final needed 25-30k to make a profit at Optus. So games against the less supported teams will likely be loss makers.

If you line all the people up above the medium wage of Canberra, WA will simply have significantly more people on more money so your who has more cash available point isn’t true.

Of course Perth has more money over all. It also has two massive teams that fans already follow.

Canberra isn't competing with Perth, we're competing with, at most, maybe one fifth of Perth. Which is 460k people.

That's already fewer people than the ACT. Add the higher median income and NSW suburbs, and Canberra would have more cash than what's left over for WA3.

 

[Purple Suit]

But the match day revenue does to the home club, so it would not benefit the AFL or other clubs.

Anyway, the AFL and broadcasters want full houses not half empty stadiums. Adding a 3rd club goes against all that.

No it does not, WA3 will get more supporters to games than any other expansion side due to the bigger population base. Including two more 55K block busters a season on TV.

If Broadcasters wanted to not play in front of empty stadiums, they should have told the AFL before GC & GWS were introduced.

Revenue going to the expansion team will just mean the AFL won't have to have it on the teet for long compared to other teams which are in their adulthood and still haven't moved out of home.

 

[Perry Pie]

I honestly don't understand why these morons in the wafc wouldn't want another club in their own state of 3 million people, in a competition of 20 clubs. It's mind blowing how incompetent that organisation is. Is a third club 'in their own state' good for the game, in their own state? Of course it is. How could anybody with any whiff of integrity on that committee think otherwise?

Six derby games a season. Less travel for WA teams. 11 more games in state. I think wafc is missing an opportunity.
That said, I think Canberra should be first choice for 2030. Only if Canberra cannot be put together should WA3 or SA3 be considered.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Perth's population growth will mean a 20th team is inevitable. Freo's growth as a team over the last decade common sense is just due to a bigger pie they're part of.

It may not be the next team or in the next 20-30 years, but it's ridiculous to think that there won't be a third (or even fourth) team in the coming generations - Perth will have a million more people than Adelaide within a generation or two.

 

[Walshawk]

No it does not, WA3 will get more supporters to games than any other expansion side due to the bigger population base. Including two more 55K block busters a season on TV.

If Broadcasters wanted to not play in front of empty stadiums, they should have told the AFL before GC & GWS were introduced.

Revenue going to the expansion team will just mean the AFL won't have to have it on the teet for long compared to other teams which are in their adulthood and still haven't moved out of home.

The fact that GWS and GC still usually play at empty stadiums Is one of the main reasons the broadcasters have been saying they want full stadiums and a reason why the AFL is happy with 23k for Hobart.

I agree it is strange that the WAFC don’t want another team but until that changes the next team will be elsewhere.

 

[Coolangatta]

Perth's population growth will mean a 20th team is inevitable. Freo's growth as a team over the last decade common sense is just due to a bigger pie they're part of.

It may not be the next team or in the next 20-30 years, but it's ridiculous to think that there won't be a third (or even fourth) team in the coming generations - Perth will have a million more people than Adelaide within a generation or two.

Would love to see WA3 and WA4 as teams 21 and 22.

Joondalup and East Perth or Joondalup and South West WA.

Canberra as 20.

 

[MelbourneGWS]

The AFL have released the results of some of the fan survey questions- but not for the question relating to the preferred team 20 location. Hopefully that will be coming soon. Would be interesting to see whether there was a runaway winner with the 33,000 respondents - although my gut says it would probably be NT

FANS' VERDICT: Footy's best players, coaches and commentators

More than 33,000 fans have had their say on the best players, coaches and commentators in the game

www.afl.com.au

 

[Canberra Pear]

Tom Morris, so take with a grain of salt, is reporting that North may get the entire NT as an academy.

He said "it fits with North's plans given the club is planning for life after Tasmania".

That to me indicates games as well. Both Melbourne and the Suns' deals expire at the end of 2026, which gives a year before Tasmania enters.

If North has four games to give, it makes sense for three games in Darwin and one in Alice.

For a city of 140k, three games is genuinely a lot of content.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

Tom Morris, so take with a grain of salt, is reporting that North may get the entire NT as an academy.

He said "it fits with North's plans given the club is planning for life after Tasmania".

That to me indicates games as well. Both Melbourne and the Suns' deals expire at the end of 2026, which gives a year before Tasmania enters.

If North has four games to give, it makes sense for three games in Darwin and one in Alice.

For a city of 140k, three games is genuinely a lot of content.

Do you notice how Darwin (the white section) is left off the map? I thought it could indicate that the Suns will retain Darwin as part of their NGA zone and potentially keep playing games there.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Do you notice how Darwin (the white section) is left off the map? I thought it could indicate that the Suns will retain Darwin as part of their NGA zone and potentially keep playing games there.

Good pick up. Judging by how the Suns' academy is going, I would say it probably wouldn't be necessary. And they've got a similar problem to the Giants by not playing enough games in their home city.

Tom said "one team NT takeover", but the picture doesn't align, so hard to tell where the mistake is.

"Life after Tasmania" indicates games to me, but Alice isn't big enough for multiple games, so games in Darwin would still make more sense to me.

But again, it's Tom Morris, so odds are North aren't going anywhere near the NT.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

Good pick up. Judging by how the Suns' academy is going, I would say it probably wouldn't be necessary. And they've got a similar problem to the Giants by not playing enough games in their home city.

Tom said "one team NT takeover", but the picture doesn't align, so hard to tell where the mistake is.

"Life after Tasmania" indicates games to me, but Alice isn't big enough for multiple games, so games in Darwin would still make more sense to me.

But again, it's Tom Morris, so odds are North aren't going anywhere near the NT.

I agree, that’s how I interpreted it as well. Particularly since it aligns with AFLNT’s strategic plan re increasing their AFL content. This cannot be achieved from the Suns, so they will be out to entice a Victorian club. There might also be a possibility that AFLNT will offer to contribute to some of the academy funding, which would give North even more to think about.

In relation to the Suns; Hawthorn has an NT NGA academy zone, although they’re laying the foundations to play games in Cairns post-Tassie. If the Hawks lose their NT zone then surely they’d want it replaced with Cairns. However, that’s also in the Suns Academy zone. With the wins that the Suns are getting with their academy, I can see the AFL taking either Darwin or Cairns away from them - could you see them losing both in the short term, though? I don’t think I can.

 

[Coolangatta]

I've said before, I think North taking Darwin and Hawthorn taking Cairns is a good long-term strategy for increasing AFL presence in NT and NQ, which they clearly want.

Canberra team 20, Giants play 11 games in Sydney, GC 11 games at GC.

Going all in at home I think is the right move for the expansion clubs.

 

[Aussie in exile]

I've said before, I think North taking Darwin and Hawthorn taking Cairns is a good long-term strategy for increasing AFL presence in NT and NQ, which they clearly want.

Canberra team 20, Giants play 11 games in Sydney, GC 11 games at GC.

Going all in at home I think is the right move for the expansion clubs.

I say again with the cilmate in Cairns you won't be able to play many if any games there in March or April.
Canberra 20th team, Yes. GWS play all their games in Sydney and GCS play all their games on the GC.Yes

 

[Coolangatta]

I say again with the cilmate in Cairns you won't be able to play many if any games there in March or April.
Canberra 20th team, Yes. GWS play all their games in Sydney and GCS play all their games on the GC.Yes

Just play them later then.

2-3 games is doable there if it is for Darwin.

But it would be a big problem for full time teams. You'd think an NT side would need to split their games 9-2 between Darwin and Alice while a NQ side could play 9 in Cairns and 1 each in Townsville and Mackay, but I don't know what the conditions are like in Townsville or Mackay that time of the year.

 

[Bjo187]

I say again with the cilmate in Cairns you won't be able to play many if any games there in March or April.
Canberra 20th team, Yes. GWS play all their games in Sydney and GCS play all their games on the GC.Yes

What's gotten into you mate, that's the best post you've ever made

 

[budge27]

Only if you plan ahead or want single tickets. I just looked up the WC v Hawks game and can’t get 2 tickets for tomorrow.

The availability for walk up’s is extremely limited in WA and it’s where the AFL could generate more money. Half the AFL revenue comes from attendance after all.

Just having a look at the WCE v Lions match in 2 weeks time and there are only single tix available with one little section next to the scoreboard at the back with about 20 seats together. This match won’t have an attendance over 48k either, so it’s still difficult to get tickets to Eagles matches.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Just having a look at the WCE v Lions match in 2 weeks time and there are only single tix available with one little section next to the scoreboard at the back with about 20 seats together. This match won’t have an attendance over 48k either, so it’s still difficult to get tickets to Eagles matches.

West Coast really needs a better system to sell tickets back to the club. A sold out game shouldn't have 12k empty seats.

 

[Purple Suit]

West Coast really needs a better system to sell tickets back to the club. A sold out game shouldn't have 12k empty seats.

They have a system but lazy, rich people can’t be bothered or want to keep options open. It’s hard to pre plan how hard you will hit the Chardonnay the night before.

 

[MelbourneGWS]

Tom Morris, so take with a grain of salt, is reporting that North may get the entire NT as an academy.

He said "it fits with North's plans given the club is planning for life after Tasmania".

That to me indicates games as well. Both Melbourne and the Suns' deals expire at the end of 2026, which gives a year before Tasmania enters.

If North has four games to give, it makes sense for three games in Darwin and one in Alice.

For a city of 140k, three games is genuinely a lot of content.

If this leads to North playing their current 4 Hobart games in NT, could it be foreshadowing a co-located NT-Norths club?

This was one of the models in the NT AFL business case, and whilst not favoured over a standalone club playing 11 games in NT, the co-location model with an existing club was acknowledged as being more beneficial financially.

If so, then that means the chances of Canberra being team 20 increases considerably, as the fan/media favourites NT will then have a (co-located) team, and the WAFC does not want WA3.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

If this leads to North playing their current 4 Hobart games in NT, could it be foreshadowing a co-located NT-Norths club?

This was one of the models in the NT AFL business case, and whilst not favoured over a standalone club playing 11 games in NT, the co-location model with an existing club was acknowledged as being more beneficial financially.

If so, then that means the chances of Canberra being team 20 increases considerably, as the fan/media favourites NT will then have a (co-located) team, and the WAFC does not want WA3.

Always has been my preference for North Melbourne to joint-venture with Northern Territory to rebrand as the "Northern Kangaroos" and play 5-7 home match split in Darwin / Alice Springs and the rest in Melbourne (preferably against big Victorian clubs) as it would cost way too much annual funding to prop a full-time club over there without any federal government support.

If this model was implemented instead of the stand-alone concept, it would still allow NT to have a presence in the AFL competitions and help continue improving participation rates of boys and girls in the sport there without having to sacrifice an extra spot (with GC going back full-time to the Gold Coast) and making it easier for Canberra to gain that 20th license given the recent news of Manuka redevelopment to 20-21k and popularity of the sport there in recent times (with GWS going back full-time to Sydney).

Once that occurs in 5-10 years from now, every state / territory will have some form of representation in the AFL and no more expansion would be needed until WA3 / NQ is ready for 22 clubs + competition (by 2050) or Victorian clubs decide to merge / relocate (i.e Bulldogs to Ballart) to keep at 20 teams.