Player Watch #38 Noah Cumberland - Delisted

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Rayzorwire said:
Could be? :thumbsu:

If so, it wasn't obvious at the ground.

Was the one game for the year I didn't watch on TV or watch back as a replay (no thanks after seeing that hiding live!), so couldn't have picked it up from there.

Even so, you'd have to be at 'can't walk' stage for some of the efforts he put in for them to be remotely passable - and in the same minutes he wasn't at 'can't walk' stage when he was sprinting on leads.
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Sadly, I think this is Cumberland in a nutshell. Like a panther if he thinks he can get the ball, like a 3 toed sloth if he thinks he can't get the ball. For all the coaching the club has no doubt given him, he doesn't seem to be able to re-program his mindset. I anticipate 2024 will be his final year on our list.
 

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Meteoric Rise said:
Sadly, I think this is Cumberland in a nutshell. Like a panther if he thinks he can get the ball, like a 3 toed sloth if he thinks he can't get the ball. For all the coaching the club has no doubt given him, he doesn't seem to be able to re-program his mindset. I anticipate 2024 will be his final year on our list.
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Thanks for your thoughts, mate, as you know, I rate you right at the top of judges here. :thumbsu:

Not great to hear what I suspected all but confirmed, though.

Guess we're down to hoping that a change of coaching line up might help him twig, but as you infer and I agree, it's unusual for players with this mindset to be able to overcome their natural, instinctual hard wiring.

Shame, he's got no shortage of talent, but you can't hide these types of players easily at all in the run 'til you drop era.
 
Rayzorwire said:
Thanks for your thoughts, mate, as you know, I rate you right at the top of judges here. :thumbsu:

Not great to hear what I suspected all but confirmed, though.

Guess we're down to hoping that a change of coaching line up might help him twig, but as you infer and I agree, it's unusual for players with this mindset to be able to overcome their natural, instinctual hard wiring.

Shame, he's got no shortage of talent, but you can't hide these types of players easily at all in the run 'til you drop era.
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I think that is it. He is a 1980's footballer trying to play in the 2020's. He definitely has sufficient talent to make a player, but he is up against some guys who would chase a tram down Swanston St and tackle it to the ground if it would get them a game.
 
His biggest problem is in his head

  • exaggerates the smallest injury
  • Lets even the smallest mistake get into his head
  • Tries to do way too much
  • Doesnt play within his limitations

Poor mans Kayne Pettifer
 
Rayzorwire said:
Could be? :thumbsu:

If so, it wasn't obvious at the ground.

Was the one game for the year I didn't watch on TV or watch back as a replay (no thanks after seeing that hiding live!), so couldn't have picked it up from there.

Even so, you'd have to be at 'can't walk' stage for some of the efforts he put in for them to be remotely passable - and in the same minutes he wasn't at 'can't walk' stage when he was sprinting on leads.
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I remember that game vividly. The whole team was shit that night. The Lions ran rampant winning by 81 points.

Cumbers and Clarke were our two best forwards and that's saying something because the forward line that night were so lacklustre.
Come to think of it we were smashed all over the ground. Midfield were smashed and the backline had 20 goals kicked on them (34 scoring shots).
I thought Cumbers presented well taking 5 marks. Anyways, I've seen enough of him to know he has what it takes to make it at the top level.

Stats for our forwards that night V Lions 2023

[50] Marlion Pickett, 9 disposals, 1 mark, 1 tackle, zero goals

[34] Jack Graham, 11 disposals, 0 marks, 2 tackles, zero goals

[46] Ben Miller, 4 disposals, 3 marks, zero tackles, zero goals

[38] Noah Cumberland, 7 disposals, 5 marks, zero tackles, 1 goal

[8] Jack Riewoldt, 6 disposals, 1 mark, zero tackles, zero goals

[32] Samson Ryan, 5 disposals, 2 marks, zero tackles, zero goals

[42] Judson Clarke, 13 disposals, 2 marks, zero tackles, 1 goal
 
AstuteTiger said:
I remember that game vividly. The whole team was s**t that night. The Lions ran rampant winning by 81 points.

Cumbers and Clarke were our two best forwards and that's saying something because the forward line that night were so lacklustre.
Come to think of it we were smashed all over the ground. Midfield were smashed and the backline had 20 goals kicked on them (34 scoring shots).
I thought Cumbers presented well taking 5 marks. Anyways, I've seen enough of him to know he has what it takes to make it at the top level.

Stats for our forwards that night V Lions 2023

[50] Marlion Pickett, 9 disposals, 1 mark, 1 tackle, zero goals

[34] Jack Graham, 11 disposals, 0 marks, 2 tackles, zero goals

[46] Ben Miller, 4 disposals, 3 marks, zero tackles, zero goals

[38] Noah Cumberland, 7 disposals, 5 marks, zero tackles, 1 goal

[8] Jack Riewoldt, 6 disposals, 1 mark, zero tackles, zero goals

[32] Samson Ryan, 5 disposals, 2 marks, zero tackles, zero goals

[42] Judson Clarke, 13 disposals, 2 marks, zero tackles, 1 goal
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You are looking at only selected stats there. I suppose, the bits we tend to notice most as supporters. When you look at player ratings, which takes into account all available stats from a players game, offensive, contested, uncontested, scoring impact and defensive, Cumberland was the lowest rated played in either team with -3.0. One of 5 negative ratings he achieved in his 9 matches for the season. To give an idea about how bad that is, normally about 1 or 2 players in each match achieve a negative rating, and it often might be a player who makes an error or gives away a free kick early then gets injured. For one player to do it 5 times in his last 5 matches, looks a harbinger of doom if ever I have seen one.

The ratings from that match for the players you listed:

Clarke 9.3
Graham 7.2
Riewoldt 5.0
Pickett 4.8
Ryan 2.4
Miller -0.9
Cumberland -3.0

So if you are noticing Cumberland for his 5 marks(only 1 contested) and 1 goal, there must be a whole lot of things he wasn't doing that some of the other seemingly more quiet forwards were doing unnoticed.

In fact in Cumberland's last 4 matches, he was the lowest rated of 46 players in each of them. I would not mind betting that is some kind of all time record for all AFL players since the ratings come into being in 2012. The odds of that happening without any related contingency involved and assuming all players have an equal chance, is 4,477,455 to 1.

I would bet good money that if Cumberland was not contracted for 2024, he would have been delisted at the end of season 2023.

Hopefully he can turn it around, or at least lead our VFL team to a flag or something but to me he is skating on wafer thin ice.

Edit: A bit of further digging shows that including Cumberland's 2022 final showing where he rated 1.9 his last 10 matches he rates on average 1.99. Of players playing 10 or more matches in that period in the AFL, Cumberland has comfortably the worst player rating, languishing below such luminaries as Rhett Bazzo, Campbell Chesser, Jack Williams, Ryan Clarke, Arthur Jones, Lachlan McNeil, Neil Erasmus, James O'Donnell, Fergus Greene, Chuck Spargo, Levi Casboult, Ethan Hughes, to name a few. It is a dead set horror show.
 
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his last 5 games were after dimwit destroyed his self-belief and he lost his way

1708204745203.gif

Meteoric Rise said:
You are looking at only selected stats there. I suppose, the bits we tend to notice most as supporters. When you look at player ratings, which takes into account all available stats from a players game, offensive, contested, uncontested, scoring impact and defensive, Cumberland was the lowest rated played in either team with -3.0. One of 5 negative ratings he achieved in his 9 matches for the season. To give an idea about how bad that is, normally about 1 or 2 players in each match achieve a negative rating, and it often might be a player who makes an error or gives away a free kick early then gets injured. For one player to do it 5 times in his last 5 matches, looks a harbinger of doom if ever I have seen one.

The ratings from that match for the players you listed:

Clarke 9.3
Graham 7.2
Riewoldt 5.0
Pickett 4.8
Ryan 2.4
Miller -0.9
Cumberland -3.0

So if you are noticing Cumberland for his 5 marks(only 1 contested) and 1 goal, there must be a whole lot of things he wasn't doing that some of the other seemingly more quiet forwards were doing unnoticed.

In fact in Cumberland's last 4 matches, he was the lowest rated of 46 players in each of them. I would not mind betting that is some kind of all time record for all AFL players since the ratings come into being in 2012. The odds of that happening without any related contingency involved and assuming all players have an equal chance, is 4,477,455 to 1.

I would bet good money that if Cumberland was not contracted for 2024, he would have been delisted at the end of season 2023.

Hopefully he can turn it around, or at least lead our VFL team to a flag or something but to me he is skating on wafer thin ice.

Edit: A bit of further digging shows that including Cumberland's 2022 final showing where he rated 1.9 his last 10 matches he rates on average 1.99. Of players playing 10 or more matches in that period in the AFL, Cumberland has comfortably the worst player rating, languishing below such luminaries as Rhett Bazzo, Campbell Chesser, Jack Williams, Ryan Clarke, Arthur Jones, Lachlan McNeil, Neil Erasmus, James O'Donnell, Fergus Greene, Chuck Spargo, Levi Casboult, Ethan Hughes, to name a few. It is a dead set horror show.
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Meteoric Rise said:
I think that is it. He is a 1980's footballer trying to play in the 2020's. He definitely has sufficient talent to make a player, but he is up against some guys who would chase a tram down Swanston St and tackle it to the ground if it would get them a game.
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I think that defensive thing is a mindset that is a legacy of Hardwick. The best small forwards, Greene, Cameron, Stengle in '22, and plenty more, all play ball first and attack at all costs. Bailey Fritsch has never tackled a player in his life, 100% offensive. Cumberland had 8 tackles in a game last season and is very aggressive at the contest. Yes he occasionally in his aggression at the ball he doesn't chase, but that will come. Look how De Goey has turned out, pretty much the complete footballer now, and very similar to Cumberland when he started. The kid has played 2 seasons of footy. Plenty of room for improvement. Delisted because he doesn't always chase would be a first.
 
lllscroatlll said:
his last 5 games were after dimwit destroyed his self-belief and he lost his way

View attachment 1907639
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Are you saying it is the sole fault of a triple-Premiership coach who was no longer even coaching during those last 5 games that Cumberland was demonstrably the worst small forward in the AFL to play 10 or more games during the period in which he played his last 10 games? And the player himself bears little or no responsibility for his own performances?

It would seem to be a bit of a new concept, destroying a players confidence by repeatedly selecting him in the AFL team.
 
Meteoric Rise said:
Are you saying it is the sole fault of a triple-Premiership coach who was no longer even coaching during those last 5 games that Cumberland was demonstrably the worst small forward in the AFL to play 10 or more games during the period in which he played his last 10 games? And the player himself bears little or no responsibility for his own performances?

It would seem to be a bit of a new concept, destroying a players confidence by repeatedly selecting him in the AFL team.
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I might have missed something but which 5 games are you referring to? Cumberland played 6 games from rd 3 to 8, all under Dimma, then under Mini. (who was very much in the same mould Dimma), rd.12, dropped, 16 dropped, rd.21 dropped.

And it's not like he was going poorly in the VFL, 28 goals in his last 10 games. I think it is fair to say Cumberland lost his way in '23, some responsibility has to do with the coaching, and of course some the player. But his was marked very hard for a talented 2nd year player.
 
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Meteoric Rise said:
Are you saying it is the sole fault of a triple-Premiership coach who was no longer even coaching during those last 5 games that Cumberland was demonstrably the worst small forward in the AFL to play 10 or more games during the period in which he played his last 10 games? And the player himself bears little or no responsibility for his own performances?

It would seem to be a bit of a new concept, destroying a players confidence by repeatedly selecting him in the AFL team.
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never said he bears no responsibility

he was mismanaged mentally

he has stated himself he needs to be better

but dump on him all you like
 
Grrr said:
I think that defensive thing is a mindset that is a legacy of Hardwick. The best small forwards, Greene, Cameron, Stengle in '22, and plenty more, all play ball first and attack at all costs. Bailey Fritsch has never tackled a player in his life, 100% offensive. Cumberland had 8 tackles in a game last season and is very aggressive at the contest. Yes he occasionally in his aggression at the ball he doesn't chase, but that will come. Look how De Goey has turned out, pretty much the complete footballer now, and very similar to Cumberland when he started. The kid has played 2 seasons of footy. Plenty of room for improvement. Delisted because he doesn't always chase would be a first.
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If all these players you mentioned were not playing their role defensively or supplying sufficient defensive pressure, they simply would not be amongst the best small forwards in the AFL. Below are the highest rated general forwards in the AFL in 2023. The column on the far right is their average pressure acts. Cumberland averaged 11.6 pressure acts. This is why for eg Bayley Fritsch is not in reality anywhere near as good a forward as his goal tally would suggest. I have no doubt he plays the role his team assigns to him and plays it well, but it is not as valuable a role as you would think judging just from how many goals he kicks. In 2022 despite one of the hottest "purple patches" imaginable for a debutante forward, Cumberland was merely the 13th best ranked general forward on average performance in the AFL. When the "purple patch" of goals and assists ended, so did his 13th best ranking. he went straight to the bottom.

1708211742293.png

We all want Cumberland to be good and do well. But I would have thought it was pretty clear he needs to adopt a whole new outlook to his footy to get anywhere near making an AFL player longer term. And he now has about 25 weeks to make that happen or it is likely curtains.
 
lllscroatlll said:
never said he bears no responsibility

he was mismanaged mentally

he has stated himself he needs to be better

but dump on him all you like
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"Mismanaged mentally."

Whilst I would concede it is perfectly possible that a club with a continuing history of managing players extremely well would mismanage one player, how probable is it?

I think when you detail a player's actual level of performance and are then said to be dumping on him....surely that comes back to the player not performing. Ultimately it has to be the player's responsibility to perform the role the team requires of him. His last 5 games were unbelievably bad when the whole performance is measured.

Can you think of any precedent to where a player has been that bad over 5 games and then gone on to become a useful AFL player?
 
Meteoric Rise said:
"Mismanaged mentally."

Whilst I would concede it is perfectly possible that a club with a continuing history of managing players extremely well would mismanage one player, how probable is it?

I think when you detail a player's actual level of performance and are then said to be dumping on him....surely that comes back to the player not performing. Ultimately it has to be the player's responsibility to perform the role the team requires of him. His last 5 games were unbelievably bad when the whole performance is measured.

Can you think of any precedent to where a player has been that bad over 5 games and then gone on to become a useful AFL player?
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stats schmats
 
Grrr said:
I might have missed something but which 5 games are you referring to? Cumberland played 6 games from rd 3 to 8, all under Dimma, then under Mini. (who was very much in the same mould Dimma), rd.12, dropped, 16 dropped, rd.21 dropped.

And it's not like he was going poorly in the VFL, 28 goals in his last 10 games. I think it is fair to say Cumberland lost his way in '23, some responsibility has to do with the coaching, and of course some the player. But his was marked very hard for a talented 2nd year player.
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The last 5 games Cumberland played he almost unbelievably recorded 5 negative player ratings. In the last 4 of those he recorded THE worst player rating of all 46 players to take the field. He was only 4th "worst on ground" in the Gold Coast match. Chol, Sonsie and 1st year player Bailey Humphrey somehow conspired to record worse player ratings than Noah Cumberland that day.
 
Meteoric Rise said:
If all these players you mentioned were not playing their role defensively or supplying sufficient defensive pressure, they simply would not be amongst the best small forwards in the AFL. Below are the highest rated general forwards in the AFL in 2023. The column on the far right is their average pressure acts. Cumberland averaged 11.6 pressure acts. This is why for eg Bayley Fritsch is not in reality anywhere near as good a forward as his goal tally would suggest. I have no doubt he plays the role his team assigns to him and plays it well, but it is not as valuable a role as you would think judging just from how many goals he kicks. In 2022 despite one of the hottest "purple patches" imaginable for a debutante forward, Cumberland was merely the 13th best ranked general forward on average performance in the AFL. When the "purple patch" of goals and assists ended, so did his 13th best ranking. he went straight to the bottom.

View attachment 1907693

We all want Cumberland to be good and do well. But I would have thought it was pretty clear he needs to adopt a whole new outlook to his footy to get anywhere near making an AFL player longer term. And he now has about 25 weeks to make that happen or it is likely curtains.
Click to expand...
Fritsch has won Melbourne's goal kicking 4 times and won any number of games off his own boot because he has that forwards knack of kickiing goals at the right time, but he's not good because he doesn't pressure. Toby Greene's 14.8 is not much different to 11.6, and given one is a veteran and the other had played 8 games before the season started I would say it's not too bad. And Greene is the best in the business. Give me forward that kicks goals over one who pressures any day, but yes we want Cumberland to improve on all aspects of his game, but that will come with confidence and continuity which hopefully comes this year.
 
Meteoric Rise said:
The last 5 games Cumberland played he almost unbelievably recorded 5 negative player ratings. In the last 4 of those he recorded THE worst player rating of all 46 players to take the field. He was only 4th "worst on ground" in the Gold Coast match. Chol, Sonsie and 1st year player Bailey Humphrey somehow conspired to record worse player ratings than Noah Cumberland that day.
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His last 5 games. R21 he had 13 disposals, 6 marks 4 tackles and 1 goal 2, not a bad day. Dropped. He kicked 6 the next week in the VFL and was not promoted.
R.16 7 possessions and 5 marks, dropped.
R.12 subbed out after two possessions not sure which q.
R.8 subbed out again after 4 possessions not sure which q.
rd.7 6 possessions.

Played 3 games in 15 weeks so no real way to judge any player.

Anyway old news so lets just see how he responds.
 

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Player Watch #38 Noah Cumberland - Delisted

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