6 Day Breaks...

[Max zero]

Then take a look at interstate travel by team

Tra = times travelled interstate
Total = total games

Stats are since '87

-----------------------
 
Team        Tra    Tota    %    Avg.
 
-----------------------
 
Team    Travel    Total    Avg.    Percentage
 
Collingwood    94    590    3.76    15.93%
Essendon      103    592    4.12    17.40%
Carlton      105    588    4.20    17.86%
Geelong      109    601    4.36    18.14%
Richmond      103    566    4.12    18.20%
Fitzroy        40    218    4.44    18.35%
Melbourne    114    587    4.56    19.42%
Footscray    120    583    4.80    20.58%
St Kilda      121    585    4.84    20.68%
Hawthorn      138    590    5.52    23.39%
North M      139    587    5.56    23.68%
Gold Coast    14    34  14.00    41.18%
Port Adel    162    359  10.80    45.13%
Fremantle    178    391  10.47    45.52%
Brisbane L    170    362  11.33    46.96%
Adelade      237    497  11.29    47.69%
West Coast    290    600  11.60    48.33%
Sydney        286    587  11.44    48.72%
Brisbane B    112    222  12.44    50.45%
GWS            7    11    7.00    63.64%
 
-----------------------

Fun times. Damn right we deserve a homeground advantage.

 

[Lunchlady Doris]

If my club ever uses 6 days rest as an excuse for losing I'll spew up. Luckily we are winners and don't have that attitude.

Better get a bag ready - ever heard of 'blockbuster fatigue'?

 

[manicmagpie]

The three best performed teams over the last 6 completed seasons are Geelong, Collingwood and St Kilda.

              Overall        6 Day        Travel        After Travel
Collingwood     68%          68%           75%            75%
St Kilda        64%          62%           54%            75%
Geelong         78%          75%           74%            77%

As you can see, 6 day breaks have negligible impact on results.

The effect of travel varies, with Collingwood performing better away from home, Geelong dropping slightly and St Kilda falling away. Contrary to what is often peddled on this site, the week after travel proves to be no disadvantage, with both Collingwood and St Kilda improving significantly.

Conclusion: if you're good enough, you will win. Good teams don't make excuses.

Hell, even when you combine a 6 day break with an interstate trip, Collingwood win 70% of the time, and 80% the next week. How much clearer can it get?

 

[KrakFiend]

im not having a shot at Pies- goodluck to them they dont do the draw.

I think the above stats are indisputable - consecutive 6 day games when sides are coming up against sides off a 7,8,9 13?? day break hurt - the stats show that....no smoking gun here....just facts.

And yep....its 1 day....till you have 2 or 3 in succession.....

Wow, someone's statistical analysis knowledge is on par with a sixth grader.

Of course those stats are disputable. There is a much larger data sample base you could use, for a start.

Then there are many other factors to take in to account , I won't even try and think of them all, but the respective form/ladder positions of the teams in those 30 matches might be a start. Home ground advantages. Key injuries/suspensions prior to the match.

f you want to continue along this 'standard' of indisputable stats, how about you assign a value to each team in the league ranging from 1 to 18 based on 2011 finishing positions, then tally up the 2012 draw for each team, and see how that looks... taken in isolation, certain supporter groups may feel quite aggrieved.

Then lets do the same for travel. Home ground vs. interstate side. Friday night match. Top 4 sides played in a row. Etc etc...

If anything, the biggest fault in the current fixture is that it gives every wannabe statistician an angle to paint whatever picture they want.

Flog.

 

[aussierulesrules]

The only way it handicaps a side is if they are trying to get a player up for a game who has pulled up sore or slightly injured from the week before. Clubs just have to manage player welfare better during the week. As for travel players can walk and stretch on planes it just another convenient excuse. if travel is so bad just how do the interstate teams do it.

I understand one team played 4 or 5 six day break games in a row. i dont know who it was as I dont think this team whinged at all (pigs arse).

So you don't think that not being able to work on your game plan and train in specific ways to prepare for the team you're playing that week (and the way you want to play against them that week) "handicaps" a team? Especially if the side you're playing has had that extra day or two to recover from the game they played the week before, as well as having been able to have that main training session to prepare for your game and work on anything they need to work on, including how they want to play you?

Just as an example, Scott Watters was on On The Couch last week and mentioned at one point, when answering a question, that because of the three consecutive 6 day breaks in a row we had recently, we basically hadn't been able to work on our game plan and the way we wanted to play, at training, for weeks. In that time it had basically been all about recovery for the next game, especially with some of those games also being interstate. He said it wasn't until we had the bye that he was finally able to get some decent physical training into the team, to work on the things we needed to work on.

Unless a team is flying and has nothing at all they want to work on at training and are so good that they don't need to do any specific training to prepare for the team they're playing that week, I think it's fair to say that is a genuine "handicap". If you're good enough you'll be able to overcome it, but I'd suggest that anyone who reckons they make "no difference at all" is kidding themselves. Clubs are not looking for every little thing they can find to aid and speed up recovery because recovery isn't important (especially with the game being so fast and frenetic these days) and I think we all would know the value of being able to physically train and work on the things you need to work on, especially if you're not traveling perfectly.

One off six day breaks are obviously nowhere near as big a deal and are of course going to happen, but I'd suggest that when the AFL do their scheduling they need to look to make sure teams don't have many, if any, consecutive ones, just like they look to avoid consecutive interstate trips, as they are far from ideal.

(Another way a six day break would/could "handicap" a side is of course if that side had quite a lot in it that are in the latter stages of their career. Basically everyone in their late 20's or 30's who is asked about recovery from week to week will say that it takes them that extra day or two to recover from games (compared to how they would recover when they were younger), so unless they're lying about that, I'd suggest six day breaks will almost certainly effect older sides more than they will younger ones.)

 

[KrakFiend]

does anyone know if every team in the comp gets to play GWS and GC twice each? i bet some only play them once each while some get 2 x each? right there is probably the biggest inequality in the history of AFL/VFL fixturing.

 

[im_a_lazy_sod]

Yeah the way they fixtured GWS and GC games was a joke

If they managed to make it so most teams got one of GC/GWS twice then it wouldn't have been as bad

 

[Tas]

You need 3 days to recover, after that it just comes to who was better on the day.

 

[Monkey King]

Hell, even when you combine a 6 day break with an interstate trip, Collingwood win 70% of the time, and 80% the next week. How much clearer can it get?

You win 70% of the time you say? That seems like a notable drop from Collingwood's baseline winning percentage over the last couple of years. What are the baseline figures please?

I agree with the OP and wanting to limit fixturing anomalies. Shouldn't have running 6 day breaks from any direction. One or two is acceptable, any more than that compromises the fixture unless specifically adjusted for.

 

[manicmagpie]

You win 70% of the time you say? That seems like a notable drop from Collingwood's baseline winning percentage over the last couple of years. What are the baseline figures please?

I agree with the OP and wanting to limit fixturing anomalies. Shouldn't have running 6 day breaks from any direction. One or two is acceptable, any more than that compromises the fixture unless specifically adjusted for.

The first column in my previous post contains the baseline figures. Collingwood's baseline winning percentage over the period 2006-2011 is 68%. A 6 day break combined with an interstate trip sees this rise to 70%.

 

[GoalSneak38]

At least start with some facts.

Coll (8 day break) v Melb (9 day break)
Coll (8) v Gold Coast (8)
Coll (8) v Adel (6)
Coll (6) v Geel (6) Doesn't really count does it.
Coll (8) v Bris (7)
Coll (9) V Dogs (6)
Coll (4) v Ess (4)

That brings it down to 2 (from 7) coming off 6 day break when we've had more, and 3 (down from 6) for the extra days.

It's not that hard to look up the draw but if it doesn't fit in with your story..........

Not so good Leo.

That dogs discrepancy is a disgrace

 

[Monkey King]

The first column in my previous post contains the baseline figures. Collingwood's baseline winning percentage over the period 2006-2011 is 68%. A 6 day break combined with an interstate trip sees this rise to 70%.

Cool! A few more questions if you wouldn't mind - what's the sample size; how does this compare across the league; what's the Collingwood figures for teams played; how does all this compare to samples of continuous 6-day breaks for teams in both for and against situations?

 

[kosifantutti]

Another "FACT" from St Kilda. In the last 11 seasons Collingwood has had the least away interstate games just 4 times. The 4 times we did have the least, we shared that honour with at least 7 other Vic sides on each occasion.

Only once in 11 seasons has the number of Vic teams with more travel outweighed the number of teams with equal or less than us. That was last year when 5 had more and 4 had less or the same. Usually the average is 6 of the other 9 Vic teams get the same or less travel as us. Wow, imagine the advantage that entails.

Could you do any more statistical gymnastics to try to suggest that Collingwood get it tough. I'd much rather look at the raw figures Ron the Bear provided that show Collingwood have done significantly less travel than any other team since 1987. 3.87 games per year, next on the list is Essendon at 4.12.

Time frame too long?

How about compared to the Saints over your time frame of the last 11 years. Collingwood 42 trips, St Kilda 54 trips, that's only counting away games in the regular season. Most of that difference is made up of 7 extra trips to Perth.

I know there are various reasons why Collingwood doesn't travel, but you can't just bury your head in the sand and ignore it.

 

[Owenthesaints66]

No luckily the AFL has given you the least six day breaks. As pointed out the last seven games played other than the floating round Collingwood has an extra day on there opponents.

The Pies have easily the toughest draw of teams in the competition.

Nothing to see here folks

 

[The Finger]

The Pies have easily the toughest draw of teams in the competition.

Nothing to see here folks

Do they though? Just take a look at this weeks game against Geelong. Starts as 50/50 then Collingwood get a days extra break it goes to what 55/45 then Geel return from interstate and if goes to 60/40. Check the last 7 games they get a day on each of their opponents.

 

[Professor Knowall]

Do they though? Just take a look at this weeks game against Geelong. Starts as 50/50 then Collingwood get a days extra break it goes to what 55/45 then Geel return from interstate and if goes to 60/40. Check the last 7 games they get a day on each of their opponents.

... and they only play all the cellar dwellers - and don't travel interstate in the last 7 weeks. ... err hang on a sec.


BTW -can Plugger telll us all once again what great integrity Lyons has.

 

[Owenthesaints66]

Do they though? Just take a look at this weeks game against Geelong. Starts as 50/50 then Collingwood get a days extra break it goes to what 55/45 then Geel return from interstate and if goes to 60/40. Check the last 7 games they get a day on each of their opponents.

Only one game v GWS, GC, Port, Melb, Dogs, Roos, Freo, Brisbane, Tigers and Saints.
They are 18th, 17th, 16th, 15th, 14th, 13th, 12th, 11th, 10th and 8th.

Plus they only play Adelaide, Brisbane and Sydney once. All away.

Very Very tough draw.

 

[The Finger]

Only one game v GWS, GC, Port, Melb, Dogs, Roos, Freo, Brisbane, Tigers and Saints.
They are 18th, 17th, 16th, 15th, 14th, 13th, 12th, 11th, 10th and 8th.

Plus they only play Adelaide, Brisbane and Sydney once. All away.

Very Very tough draw.

If ths team your playing is coming off a smaller break or returning from interstate or both your draw becomes so much easier.

 

[Owenthesaints66]

If ths team your playing is coming off a smaller break or returning from interstate or both your draw becomes so much easier.

Still rather play the minnows but we can agree to disagree.

 

[Professor Knowall]

If ths team your playing is coming off a smaller break or returning from interstate or both your draw becomes so much easier.

Oh - so that's the only reason Carlton have beaten us twice this season. Cool. Here was I thinking they actually outplayed us!

Amazing that no Collingwood poster identified thie correct reason - that seems to be a Saints supporters speciality. At least there's one Saints supporte here that sees through this.

 

[The Finger]

Oh - so that's the only reason Carlton have beaten us twice this season. Cool. Here was I thinking they actually outplayed us!

Amazing that no Collingwood poster identified thie correct reason - that seems to be a Saints supporters speciality. At least there's one Saints supporte here that sees through this.

Typical attitude of the supporter with the advantage.

 

[Owenthesaints66]

Typical attitude of the supporter with the advantage.

You seem to be quite a sook buddy.

Excuses are for losers.

 

[Stax on the mill]

Typical attitude of the supporter with the advantage.

Puerile comment Finger/Hump17, which adds no value to the discussion as usual. It has been clearly recognized ( by intelligent analysts ) that over the past few years the Pies have had far and away the hardest draw.

Interstate matches and shorter breaks have a very limited impact on a club's performance. West Coast travel every 2nd week, yet they are a very successful on field club. Owenthesaint66 has picked you in one.
You are quite a sook.

 

[The Finger]

Puerile comment Finger/Hump17, which adds no value to the discussion as usual. It has been clearly recognized ( by intelligent analysts ) that over the past few years the Pies have had far and away the hardest draw.

Interstate matches and shorter breaks have a very limited impact on a club's performance. West Coast travel every 2nd week, yet they are a very successful on field club. Owenthesaint66 has picked you in one.
You are quite a sook.

Of course it's an advantage to have a longer break and not travel the week prior. I have no idea why anyone would try and argue otherwise.

 

[Stax on the mill]

Of course it's an advantage to have a longer break and not travel the week prior. I have no idea why anyone would try and argue otherwise.

Don't recall saying that it had no impact, but as you usual you disingenuously exaggerate the supposed effect for your own purposes.

02/10/2010: Collingwood 16.12
St Kilda 7.10