Player Watch #8 James Rowbottom

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James Rowbottom

The Sydney Swans recruited James Rowbottom with their second selection at the 2018 AFL Draft and the midfield bull impacted from the get-go. The Oakleigh Chargers product made his AFL debut against Richmond at Marvel Stadium in Round 5, 2019 and finished the season with 12 senior games beside his name. Rowbottom also led the NEAFL MVP voting when it was hidden from the public after Round 12. The young Swan is a ball magnet, explosive at the stoppages, an outstanding tackler and a clean user of the footy.

James Rowbottom
DOB: 19 September 2000
DEBUT: 2019
DRAFT: #25, 2018 National Draft
RECRUITED FROM: Camberwell (Vic)/St Kevin's College (Vic)/Oakleigh U18

 
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We’ve picked 3 mids that could all conceivably be genuine busts. Concerning. Hope we haven’t got too funky for our own good. I don’t buy into the chat that “we’re taking best available”.

Rowbottom won't be a bust. He will be a handy player, a serviceable inside mid at worst. McInerney is the one with major bust potential imo.
 

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Rowbottom won't be a bust.
Statistically there's about a 65% chance he will be a bust.

For example here are the last 2 decades worth of pick 25s (and if anyone wants to yell "small sample size" I have a lot more in the tank)

Aaron Henneman - 58 games
Brett Johnson - 70 games
Mark Coughlan - 92 games including B&F (injury riddled)
Steven Armstrong - 79 games
Callum Urch - 8 games
Harry Miller - 18 games
Adam Hartlett - 11 games
Wayde Mills - 16 games
Nathan Djerrkura - 25 games
Tom Collier - 27 games
Jack Redden - 188 games
Aaron Black - 57 games
Patrick Karnezis - 25 games
Seb Ross - 102 games including B&F
Spencer White - 2 games
Daniel McStay - 79 games
Dan Nielson - 7 games
Josh Dunkley - 43 games
Ben Long - 14 games
Noah Balta - 0 games
 
Statistically there's about a 65% chance he will be a bust.

For example here are the last 2 decades worth of pick 25s (and if anyone wants to yell "small sample size" I have a lot more in the tank)

Aaron Henneman - 58 games
Brett Johnson - 70 games
Mark Coughlan - 92 games including B&F (injury riddled)
Steven Armstrong - 79 games
Callum Urch - 8 games
Harry Miller - 18 games
Adam Hartlett - 11 games
Wayde Mills - 16 games
Nathan Djerrkura - 25 games
Tom Collier - 27 games
Jack Redden - 188 games
Aaron Black - 57 games
Patrick Karnezis - 25 games
Seb Ross - 102 games including B&F
Spencer White - 2 games
Daniel McStay - 79 games
Dan Nielson - 7 games
Josh Dunkley - 43 games
Ben Long - 14 games
Noah Balta - 0 games

What dyou clarify a 'bust' as ?

less than 50 games?
 
We’ve picked 3 mids that could all conceivably be genuine busts. Concerning. Hope we haven’t got too funky for our own good. I don’t buy into the chat that “we’re taking best available”.

At least we’ve tried to address our number 1 weakness- our midfield
 
A little perspective:

Knighmare (espn draft writer)

"Rowbottom an ok mid - numbers decent but low impact per possession and can go for 25d and go unnoticed. With Sydney trading into that pick with the intent to take Rowbottom, it left me feeling underwhelmed".

Matt Balmer (fox sports draft writer)

"The midfielder had a consistent season at all levels. While his foot skills is an area he can improve, his ball-winning nous and clearance work is his strength. He can win the contested ball and gets the ball inside 50 on multiple occasions during games".
I’ll guarantee our no 1 choice moving up our pick was Ian hill followed by rowbottom. Hill is going to be a jet and tear us a new one everytime we play gws in a couple years time. Was shattered when gws read his name out.
 
How did you measure the 65%?

Not sure why previous players taken at pick 25 is relevant to anything to be honest, though.
I base my numbers on about 10 years history of players taken in similar brackets. I used to use a 4 pick bracket (here pick 25-28) however now I use an 8 pick bracket (21-28)

For example, about 52% of players taken in the 25-28 bracket fail to play 25 games at AFL level
 
We’ve picked 3 mids that could all conceivably be genuine busts. Concerning. Hope we haven’t got too funky for our own good. I don’t buy into the chat that “we’re taking best available”.

They could be busts hey? As opposed to all other draftees....???
 
I base my numbers on about 10 years history of players taken in similar brackets. I used to use a 4 pick bracket (here pick 25-28) however now I use an 8 pick bracket (21-28)

For example, about 52% of players taken in the 25-28 bracket fail to play 25 games at AFL level

Which is to be expected as the further down the draft you go the less chances you have of making it. But who cares about what has happened with the rest of the competition. That 52% has probably been boosted by a lot of players drafted to cellar dweller clubs like Carlton, Richmond, Melbourne, St Kilda, Fremantle and Brisbane, where the majority of players taken in ANY range have probably been busts. We and a few other clubs prove the theory wrong because we’ve been able to take low draft picks and turn them into stars.
 
Top 5 picks at clubs like carlton maybe.

Whose he going to displace in our midfield?

Where is the historical evidence that Sydney operate like that?

Not even Heeney and Mills played midfield first year. Mitchell was getting 60 possessions in the neafl.
Probably right w Horse in charge but; you did see KJ's play last year, right? There's a spot up for grabs and he looks the type to at least be thereabouts.
Papley just turned up on a mission (not mids) hope this kid does too.
 

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In his highlights package, the clip at the end of him roving the centre bounce, breaking out of the stoppage, and kicking a 40m drop punt onto a leading players chest ... I can’t remember the last time I saw a swans player do that.

Ssshhh go with the theory that our draftees are injury prone and have crap skills or there will be nothing to complain about!
 
In his highlights package, the clip at the end of him roving the centre bounce, breaking out of the stoppage, and kicking a 40m drop punt onto a leading players chest ... I can’t remember the last time I saw a swans player do that.

Some lovely kicks to advantage too... our whole team combined wouldn’t have done that last year.
 
In his highlights package, the clip at the end of him roving the centre bounce, breaking out of the stoppage, and kicking a 40m drop punt onto a leading players chest ... I can’t remember the last time I saw a swans player do that.

I recall Mitchell doing that.

Ok ok ok.....I will show myself out now :p
 
I dont recall mitchell doing that for us ever.
Certainly not hitting a target. Mitchell just used to tumble it forward and it was often turned over. He got plenty of possessions that didn't count for much, even the disposals that were rated "effective".
 
How did you measure the 65%?

Not sure why previous players taken at pick 25 is relevant to anything to be honest, though.

Roos has always said that any player over pick 5 is a lottery, but as a club in the AFL you have to be in it to win it.
Any stats on the matter are just an extension of what our club since Roos has always believed.
Hence the stay competitive, play finals & try & pick the odd gem with later picks attitude. Then bring in the odd proven player from another club & with a little luck they stay fit & we can pinch a flag with our development system.

Only the Hawks have done this but they are advantaged by the fact that any star leaving another club, pencils the Hawks in as a destination if Clarko has pissed in their ear two years in advance as happened with Gunston, Frawley, Number 6, Wingard, Scully & next year Coniglio.
 

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Player Watch #8 James Rowbottom

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