Expansion A third team in Queensland? AFL acknowledges QLD3 as a 20th licence option

[Coolangatta]

Canberra-Fitzroy Gorillas or Maroons then…

But what would even the point of that be?

They’d play all their home games in Canberra, so even if it was the actual Fitzroy back brought back trading as the Canberra-Fitzroy Gorillas, it’d still feel like a brand new club, not the Roy’s returned.

 

[Black Haze]

That’s why the AFL is doing everything they can to manufacture long periods of success for GC, Brisbane, Sydney and GWS - part of ‘growing the game’ in the region is keeping those 4 teams as strong as possible for as long as they can. Draft concessions, ‘proper’ academies, salary cap concessions (they’ll be back), ambassador role money etc etc

Brisbane are the perfect example of why it’s so important to the league to keep them all better than average.

Do you think Tasmania will receive similar concessions to the northern clubs? They might need a retention allowance because who wants to live in Tasmania?

 

[loco3]

That's interesting. I suppose it's mostly dependent on what the AFL would want the identity of this hypothetical club to be. Do they want it to be a club that exclusively represents the capital of Australia or do they want a club that represents all of southern NSW, including the ACT?

Likewise, if they started a third Queensland team, they would need to decide what the identity of the club should be. Do they want it to be a second Brisbane club that may occasionally play games in other cities like the Sunshine Coast or do they want it to be a bit more ambiguous like the Dolphins in the NRL (who appear to loosely represent Brisbane, Moreton Bay and the Sunny Coast all at once)?

Yea I’m not sure what the answer is regarding Canberra. I guess the right branding would go some way to help, but there are hurdles all the same.

It might sound crazy, because Southport are already the sharks, but bullsharks seem like a really iconic Brisbane river/Moreton bay animal to me, and a way to bridge the urban/coastal divide. Would be cool seeing two apex predators facing off in derbies - Lions vs Sharks. Could appeal to Sunshine Coast folk too…

 

[Coolangatta]

Yea I’m not sure what the answer is regarding Canberra. I guess the right branding would go some way to help, but there are hurdles all the same.

It might sound crazy, because Southport are already the sharks, but bullsharks seem like a really iconic Brisbane river/Moreton bay animal to me, and a way to bridge the urban/coastal divide. Would be cool seeing two apex predators facing off in derbies - Lions vs Sharks. Could appeal to Sunshine Coast folk too…

Moreton Bay Bullsharks playing 10 home games in Brisbane, an away derby and a home game at the Sunny Coast would not be the worst idea for a new club. But the 21st club, not the 20th.

 

[GC2015]

Yea I’m not sure what the answer is regarding Canberra. I guess the right branding would go some way to help, but there are hurdles all the same.

It might sound crazy, because Southport are already the sharks, but bullsharks seem like a really iconic Brisbane river/Moreton bay animal to me, and a way to bridge the urban/coastal divide. Would be cool seeing two apex predators facing off in derbies - Lions vs Sharks. Could appeal to Sunshine Coast folk too…

Bullsharks could work as a nickname a third Queensland team. There are certainly plenty of them in South East Queensland! Particularly in the Gold Coast canals.

Brisbane Bullsharks would gave them is a pretty good nickname considering the alliteration, it being a unique nickname in the AFL and the fact that Bullsharks are intimidating.

 

[MightyHawks]

Bullsharks could work as a nickname a third Queensland team. There are certainly plenty of them in South East Queensland! Particularly in the Gold Coast canals.

Brisbane Bullsharks would gave them is a pretty good nickname considering the alliteration, it being a unique nickname in the AFL and the fact that Bullsharks are intimidating.

Yes I can imagine the headlines when the team gets smashed - Bullsh***

 

[Altum Volantes]

Do you think Tasmania will receive similar concessions to the northern clubs? They might need a retention allowance because who wants to live in Tasmania?

I think they’ll look after them with the salary cap and they’ll have free reign over their home state with a generous academy but I think they’ll also lean on the state government more with Tassie and in general have lower expectations about how much money they are actually ever going to make.

Queensland and NSW are considered potential cash cows (one day) - Tasmania will never be that.

 

[GC2015]

Looks like the new 60k stadium in Brisbane is officially happening. Huge for the Lions and could end up being pivotal in terms of genuinely putting Queensland in the running for the 20th AFL licence.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Looks like the new 60k stadium in Brisbane is officially happening. Huge for the Lions and could end up being pivotal in terms of genuinely putting Queensland in the running for the 20th AFL licence.

I'm happy for the Lions. This is great for them. Will allow for them to grow into a big club, and avoid the disruption of a Gabba rebuild.

But despite all our back and forth, I really don't get how you think this is a positive for Queensland getting the 20th team.

If the Gabba stayed at 35k as the only option in the city, you'd have a case.

But capacity is essentially doubling for Brisbane. There is no chance that a second team is brought in at a similar time.

If anything, this stadium is a nail in the coffin for Brisbane getting the 20th team.

 

[GC2015]

I'm happy for the Lions. This is great for them. Will allow for them to grow into a big club, and avoid the disruption of a Gabba rebuild.

But despite all our back and forth, I really don't get how you think this is a positive for Queensland getting the 20th team.

If the Gabba stayed at 35k as the only option in the city, you'd have a case.

But capacity is essentially doubling for Brisbane. There is no chance that a second team is brought in at a similar time.

If anything, this stadium is a nail in the coffin for Brisbane getting the 20th team.

I think the next few years will be really telling in terms of whether Queensland will genuinely be in the running for the 20th licence. I'm assuming (big assumption given the history) the Suns are about to start playing finals and Brisbane are very likely to continue playing finals for at least a few more years. It's the period in which we're likely to see Queensland footy at its absolute best and the growth should follow suit. It may get to a point where it's undeniable that there should be another team in Queensland if the Lions & Suns are able to cash in over the next few years and become consistent top 4 teams.

That's where I think Queensland could be a legitimate chance to secure the 20th licence. Right now, I think it's unlikely but I'd want to see the lay of the land in a few years from now knowing we're likely about to enter a massive boom period for footy in Queensland.

 

[Canberra Pear]

I think the next few years will be really telling in terms of whether Queensland will genuinely be in the running for the 20th licence. I'm assuming (big assumption given the history) the Suns are about to start playing finals and Brisbane are very likely to continue playing finals for at least a few more years. It's the period in which we're likely to see Queensland footy at its absolute best and the growth should follow suit. It may get to a point where it's undeniable that there should be another team in Queensland if the Lions & Suns are able to cash in over the next few years and become consistent top 4 teams.

That's where I think Queensland could be a legitimate chance to secure the 20th licence. Right now, I think it's unlikely but I'd want to see the lay of the land in a few years from now knowing we're likely about to enter a massive boom period for footy in Queensland.

The Lions are on a high right now. I hope it leads to sustained success, but it's pretty similar to the early 2000s during their threepeat. The crowds dropped off when the team did. The real test will be if they experience any lean years. If they're still selling out then, then things are looking good for a future team. But not the 20th.

I think we both think the 20th team will be in the early 2030s? Maybe eight years away?

I reiterate, you can't increase capacity by 25k AND a add a new team in such short succession.

It would be a longshot to have an extra team in Brisbane in the next eight years, even if the Lions were stuck at the 35k Gabba. But it just won't happen in such a short timeframe alongside the new 60k stadium.

But I wish you the best of luck for Team 21. Maybe the Lions can convince a Victorian team to sell a few games like North is at Optus. That would help build the case.

 

[GC2015]

The Lions are on a high right now. I hope it leads to sustained success, but it's pretty similar to the early 2000s during their threepeat. The crowds dropped off when the team did. The real test will be if they experience any lean years. If they're still selling out then, then things are looking good for a future team. But not the 20th.

That's not true. You have to remember that the Suns entered the league at the exact moment in time that the crowds really started to drop off for the Lions - they averaged 29k in 2009/10 and 20k in 2011 when the Suns entered the AFL. The Lions still pulled an average of 28k in 2006-08 when they weren't playing finals and that was higher than 2001-02 when they won the flag. So I think their drop in crowds had far more to do with the Suns than it did with their drop in performances after 2004.

I think we both think the 20th team will be in the early 2030s? Maybe eight years away?

I reiterate, you can't increase capacity by 25k AND a add a new team in such short succession.

It would be a longshot to have an extra team in Brisbane in the next eight years, even if the Lions were stuck at the 35k Gabba. But it just won't happen in such a short timeframe alongside the new 60k stadium.

But I wish you the best of luck for Team 21. Maybe the Lions can convince a Victorian team to sell a few games like North is at Optus. That would help build the case.

Well, that's your opinion. As of right now, I would say it's unlikely for Brisbane to be the 20th team in the AFL, but I think that could change over the next few years if both the Lions and Suns are playing finals at the same time and for multiple years.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Well, that's your opinion.

That you can't have the expanded stadium and new team in such quick succession?

That is my opinion, but it's also common sense.

As of right now, I would say it's unlikely for Brisbane to be the 20th team in the AFL, but I think that could change over the next few years if both the Lions and Suns are playing finals at the same time and for multiple years.

It's great to see the growth in Queensland.

If both the Lions and Suns are consistently playing finals in eight years, a 60k Victoria Park will fit really well.

Hopefully they can continue the seating around Carrara and the two teams can collectively host 95k fans a fortnight.

 

[GC2015]

That you can't have the expanded stadium and new team in such quick succession?

That is my opinion, but it's also common sense.



It's great to see the growth in Queensland.

If both the Lions and Suns are consistently playing finals in eight years, a 60k Victoria Park will fit really well.

Hopefully they can continue the seating around Carrara and the two teams can collectively host 95k fans a fortnight.

There are already plans in place to expand Carrara precinct to cater for 40k fans in the near future and that also includes the construction of a new 10k AFLW stadium, pedestrian bridges, a hotel, a ferry terminal, surrounding restaurants/bars on the lake etc. The club admin have said once we start selling out over half our home games (we sold out 4 of 9 last year) then we can genuinely look at expanding the stadium. So we're looking at the two AFL venues combined in Queensland catering for approximately 100k footy fans in the near future. This is what the Carrara precinct will look like in the future:

 

[speedpeck23]

That you can't have the expanded stadium and new team in such quick succession?

That is my opinion, but it's also common sense.



It's great to see the growth in Queensland.

If both the Lions and Suns are consistently playing finals in eight years, a 60k Victoria Park will fit really well.

Hopefully they can continue the seating around Carrara and the two teams can collectively host 95k fans a fortnight.

The new 63,000 seat Brisbane Stadium is a massive game changer for the AFL. Clearly the AFL and Cricket Australia have been closely involved with the Queensland Govt in supporting this outcome. In the long term the Suns will almost certainly host some home games there....eg v Collingwood, Geelong etc and the lesser drawing clubs on the Gold Coast. Also opens the door for a team north of Brisbane...probably Sunshine Coast....same deal play smaller drawing clubs on the Sunny Coast and the bigger clubs in Brisbane. Becomes a mini MCG scenario , multiple clubs, Brisbane Stadium used almost every weekend and still have AFL played on Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast.

Effectively you get clubs like Collingwood, Geelong etc appearing 3 times a year in Brisbane. I would like to see Canberra or NT get a team (and maybe they will one day) but they won't be able to compete with the potential of Brisbane. The AFL and NRL well and truly know that the frontier of AFL v NRL is Brisbane. The NRL got in early with Redcliffe.....the AFL will have to wait 8 years......but they should be well prepared by then.

 

[mephisto_red]

The new 63,000 seat Brisbane Stadium is a massive game changer for the AFL. Clearly the AFL and Cricket Australia have been closely involved with the Queensland Govt in supporting this outcome. In the long term the Suns will almost certainly host some home games there....eg v Collingwood, Geelong etc and the lesser drawing clubs on the Gold Coast. Also opens the door for a team north of Brisbane...probably Sunshine Coast....same deal play smaller drawing clubs on the Sunny Coast and the bigger clubs in Brisbane. Becomes a mini MCG scenario , multiple clubs, Brisbane Stadium used almost every weekend and still have AFL played on Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast.

Effectively you get clubs like Collingwood, Geelong etc appearing 3 times a year in Brisbane. I would like to see Canberra or NT get a team (and maybe they will one day) but they won't be able to compete with the potential of Brisbane. The AFL and NRL well and truly know that the frontier of AFL v NRL is Brisbane. The NRL got in early with Redcliffe.....the AFL will have to wait 8 years......but they should be well prepared by then.

The nrl didn’t get in early with the dolphins, they got a second Brisbane team very late. They should have 3 teams in Brisbane by now at least with the popularity of the game there.

 

[WillHayward]

If Australia has 40 million population in 2040 it's going be a shithole.

 

[Delisted]

If Australia has 40 million population in 2040 it's going be a shithole.

Lol it will have 40mill by 2030.

 

[GC2015]

I would like to see Canberra or NT get a team (and maybe they will one day) but they won't be able to compete with the potential of Brisbane. The AFL and NRL well and truly know that the frontier of AFL v NRL is Brisbane. The NRL got in early with Redcliffe.....the AFL will have to wait 8 years......but they should be well prepared by then.

That's the big takeaway. The potential in Brisbane / Queensland is miles ahead of Canberra & Darwin and it's also worth noting that the room for growth is also enormous when compared to Perth. Brisbane is probably, at best, a 20% captured market by the AFL as opposed to Perth that would be well above 80%. It can make a very compelling case for another team if the numbers keep growing at an impressive rate over the next 5 years.

Important to also point out that Brisbane will have the second biggest regular AFL stadium in the country when this is complete. Certainly a huge announcement for the future of footy in Queensland and massive for QLD cricket as well.

 

[Bjo187]

That's the big takeaway. The potential in Brisbane / Queensland is miles ahead of Canberra & Darwin and it's also worth noting that the room for growth is also enormous when compared to Perth. Brisbane is probably, at best, a 20% captured market by the AFL as opposed to Perth that would be well above 80%. It can make a very compelling case for another team if the numbers keep growing at an impressive rate over the next 5 years.

Important to also point out that Brisbane will have the second biggest regular AFL stadium in the country when this is complete. Certainly a huge announcement for the future of footy in Queensland and massive for QLD cricket as well.

As per Tony Cochrane's suggestion, the AFL should look at moving the grand final every 3 or 4 years interstate. Just push the mcg contract out the extra years.

This could now be achieved by having a minimum 60k stadium cut off, which brings in the possibility of Sydney, Brisbane and Perth.

We saw how much the g.f in Brisbane in 2020 super charged AFL growth in Queensland, it would be great for the game and it would be a big money maker with all the states bidding against each other, due to the positive economic impacts.

 

[GC2015]

As per Tony Cochrane's suggestion, the AFL should look at moving the grand final every 3 or 4 years interstate. Just push the mcg contract out the extra years.

This could now be achieved by having a minimum 60k stadium cut off, which brings in the possibility of Sydney, Brisbane and Perth.

We saw how much the g.f in Brisbane in 2020 super charged AFL growth in Queensland, it would be great for the game and it would be a big money maker with all the states bidding against each other, due to the positive economic impacts.

That'd be great for the growth of the game nationally. It would likely kick South Australia into gear as well and I'd be shocked if they didn't find a way to upgrade the Adelaide Oval to 60k if it meant they could be in the running to host an AFL GF. As we've seen from the addition of opening round to the schedule, temporarily taking big games away from Victoria creates such a huge demand that we've seen the all-time attendance record for a single round broken two years in a row and I reckon taking the GF away from Victoria every third or fourth year to share it around the rest of the country would create such a huge buzz the following year when it returns to Victoria.

In terms of growth in Queensland specifically, I think right now it's about building momentum on top of momentum so it continues to snowball. The Lions have set a really solid foundation for AFL support in Queensland over the last 5-6 years and I suspect the Suns are about to add to it by opening a finals window of their own this year (fingers crossed!). The next step after that would be to add a second team in Brisbane so it guarantees a home game in the Brisbane market every week and it also mitigates the risk of things dropping away dramatically when the Lions eventually drop away on field because you have another team there that can potentially keep the market active in terms of exciting matches / finals participation.

There's no doubt the AFL have already had discussions like these about what they will do if footy in certain areas of Australia continues to grow at an impressive rate. It's go time for the AFL in Queensland and I really think they should be doing everything they possibly can to take advantage of this opportunity because it's not often you get a chance to make huge inroads in a traditional rugby league dominated market like Brisbane / Queensland. The potential up here is massive if they get it right.