Expansion A third team in Queensland? AFL acknowledges QLD3 as a 20th licence option

[jordfass]

There is a heap of talent out there, I watch heaps of under 18s footy, the amount of quality kids that get overlooked annually is amazing. I had the same thought as you prior to consuming a lot of under age footy as well though.

I think 16 is the perfect number, not due to talent but the fact teams are more likely to make finals and win flags when there are less teams.

I think there will always be a surplus of talent but its on the clubs to cultivate it into something. Although the talent might be out there, its not just a 1:1 translation into the AFL.
18 is fine with me, but when you have struggling clubs like NM/WCE in last 5 years expansion seems a bit ridiculous

 

[GC2015]

Actually, you got this the wrong way around - Nine games were sold out last year, despite the Lions losing their first 3 games of the season - and they averaged over 30k over the whole season. Given the ticket stampede for their Easter game verses the Pies (I was out of internet range for a couple of crucial hours and missed out), this game would easily reach 60k if only the Gabba held that many. The lions now have over 70k members.
The following is a précis of the linked article -

https://www.news.com.au/sport/olympics/brisbane-lions-looking-forward-to-moving-to-60000seat-stadium-after-the-olympics/news-story/7e0f5addb622be727bcc7ece8ff75260

Dual Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale says the Brisbane Lions have outgrown the Gabba and believes the club has earnt right at the play at the new 63,000-seat stadium … “It can hold a few more people as well. We’ve got a large amount of members now. “I feel like we pack out the Gabba. Even on the weekend we got 30,000 there against West Coast. “When we come up against big Melbourne clubs, the Gabba’s probably a little bit too small. “It’s a testament to our fans and the club, and the way we’ve built our brand.”

Swann echoed Neale’s sentiments, while knowing there would be a “tap” on the shoulder to help fund its construction.
We have outgrown the Gabba,” Swann said. “We sell it out every week. We played the bottom team on the weekend and sold it out again. … “We can’t wait to hear 60,000-plus Queenslanders cheering on the Lions and we look forward to working with partners to support stadium design and delivery.

You know demand is high in Brisbane when the Lions are selling out games against opposition that would typically draw very small support in Queensland like GWS (August last year) and almost selling out against the Eagles over the weekend. I'm pretty sure they're going to sell out the Gabba against the Cats this weekend as well. It's not unreasonable to suggest those games could pull 40k+ in a bigger stadium and games against Vic clubs could pull crowds in the 50-60k range. Particularly Collingwood, Carlton and Essendon.

I'll be interested to see if this flows into the Suns game next weekend when we face the Crows. Adelaide don't typically pull a large amount of support in Queensland, but they're going well at the moment and both clubs could go into the clash undefeated and placed inside the top 4 if they win this weekend. A sell out (or close to it) in that game on the Gold Coast would send a strong message about the current demand for AFL footy in Queensland.

 

[Walshawk]

Actually, you got this the wrong way around - Nine games were sold out last year, despite the Lions losing their first 3 games of the season - and they averaged over 30k over the whole season. Given the ticket stampede for their Easter game verses the Pies (I was out of internet range for a couple of crucial hours and missed out), this game would easily reach 60k if only the Gabba held that many. The lions now have over 70k members.
The following is a précis of the linked article -

https://www.news.com.au/sport/olympics/brisbane-lions-looking-forward-to-moving-to-60000seat-stadium-after-the-olympics/news-story/7e0f5addb622be727bcc7ece8ff75260

Dual Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale says the Brisbane Lions have outgrown the Gabba and believes the club has earnt right at the play at the new 63,000-seat stadium … “It can hold a few more people as well. We’ve got a large amount of members now. “I feel like we pack out the Gabba. Even on the weekend we got 30,000 there against West Coast. “When we come up against big Melbourne clubs, the Gabba’s probably a little bit too small. “It’s a testament to our fans and the club, and the way we’ve built our brand.”

Swann echoed Neale’s sentiments, while knowing there would be a “tap” on the shoulder to help fund its construction.
We have outgrown the Gabba,” Swann said. “We sell it out every week. We played the bottom team on the weekend and sold it out again. … “We can’t wait to hear 60,000-plus Queenslanders cheering on the Lions and we look forward to working with partners to support stadium design and delivery.

The West Coast game was not close to a sell out. There were thousands of tickets available an hour before the game and thus a crowd 6500 short of capacity. As I said, they did not sell out nice games last year. There were still tickets available for half of those.

And nobody know how many tickets they could sell in a 63k stadium for the Pies game. It might be 60k, or it might be 40k. All we know is that is is more than E are still tickets available for this week’s game v Cats. It will sell our soon, but given the game is in a few days, it does not suggest that it woild get 50k in a bigger stadium.

Member numbers have little correlation to crowds. giants have 35k members and average 13k crowds.

 

[GC2015]

As I said, they did not sell out nine games last year. There were still tickets available for half of those.

Can I ask why you think tickets being available one hour before a game means it didn't sell out? You do know there are walk-ins that purchase tickets at the gate just before the game starts, right? There are even people who show up late and buy tickets at the gate after the first bounce (I've done it myself). You don't have to sell every ticket an hour before the game in order for it to be a sell out...

By the way, I suspect the Lions v Cats game will sell out the Gabba this weekend.

 

[Professor Knowall]

The Lions have sold out 9 of their last 12 Gabba games -

https://www.news.com.au/sport/olympics/brisbane-lions-looking-forward-to-moving-to-60000seat-stadium-after-the-olympics/news-story/7e0f5addb622be727bcc7ece8ff75260

… “We have outgrown the Gabba,” Swann said. “We sell it out every week. We played the bottom team on the weekend and sold it out again. …

Keep in mind, the Lions v Eagles started at midday in very oppressive, hot humid conditions, so it was no wonder a number of members with reserved seats chose not to attend this game against the bottom side. To get over 30k to this game against the cellar dweller in such conditions actually says a lot. As for last year, 9 of the Lions 12 Gabba games (8 H&A, the 9th being the PF), were official sell-outs -

Eight Gabba Sell Outs As Lions Fans On Track To Set 20 Year Record

The Lions have put the ‘sold out’ sign up at the Gabba for the eighth time this season

www.lions.com.au

I’ve no doubt that if the new 63k capacity stadium was available this Easter, the Lions v Pies (which sold out in no time) would easily fill it.

 

[Bjo187]

The West Coast game was not close to a sell out. There were thousands of tickets available an hour before the game and thus a crowd 6500 short of capacity. As I said, they did not sell out nice games last year. There were still tickets available for half of those.

And nobody know how many tickets they could sell in a 63k stadium for the Pies game. It might be 60k, or it might be 40k. All we know is that is is more than E are still tickets available for this week’s game v Cats. It will sell our soon, but given the game is in a few days, it does not suggest that it woild get 50k in a bigger stadium.

Member numbers have little correlation to crowds. giants have 35k members and average 13k crowds.

Greg swan the lions ceo said on radio yesterday the capacity of the gabba is now 34k and the eagles game sold out. It was a blazing hot day up there, so no doubt a lot of people didn't show up, not wanting to sit in the sun all day.

Your agenda against footy in nsw and qld knows no end, now making stuff up.

 

[Nugett]

Canberra really doesn’t make much sense.

It’s a hole, I doubt many people would want to visit there to watch games, unlike other spots in QLD and NSW.

Canberra makes a lot of sense to be honest. People all over the country move there due to work commitments due to the public service and armed forces. Most of which are people with families, so you could establish a supporter base. There already is a huge AFL supporter base there. As well, Canberra has a lot of festivals during the year, has the Australian War Memorial, along with other attractions, where entry is mostly a gold coin donation.

The average attendance for Manuka was on par with York park, and slightly less than the average on the Gold Coast. So is a viable option.

I think a Sunshine Coast team would draw a little on population from northern Brisbane, I just dont think it could be included definitively in their territory. But as the northern suburbs creep further north, I guess new suburbs would be more inclined to support the Sunshine Coast.

A third SEQ team is actually my pick for Team 21.

I think I'm in the minority, but my preference is the Sunshine Coast over northern Brisbane.

If Team 21 comes I'm around 2050, the Sunshine Coast will have about 600k people. Northern Brisbane will have crept closer.

The NRL has bigger priorities. Perth, PNG, Adelaide, NZ2, Western Bris. Which means the AFL expanding there for Team 21 could easily get a foothold first. Would like to see a three games a year in the meantime.

Not opposed to northern Brisbane, I just like the idea of claiming the Sunshine Coast first.

What are you thoughts on Aspley getting the licence? Or would it have to be a fresh team?

I don’t think the Sunshine Coast would be a great option for a third AFL team. Most of the ex-pats living in the Sunshine Coast would be retirees. So you’re not really going to have a chance to expand on a supporter base. If there is to be a third Queensland team, I think the AFL would be better off copying the NRL with the North Queensland Cowboys, Where they are predominantly based in Townsville, but also play games in Cairns, Mackay and Rockhampton. So if they had 11 games in a season, 2 games in each of Cairns, Mackay and Rockhampton, the other 5 games in Townsville, I could see working out quite well.

Some negatives to that would be travelling for people, as airfares can become rather expensive due to weather events, mining shift changes and such.

If I was to preference I would possibly go with.

1.Canberra
2. Far North Queensland
3. A third WA team
4. A third SA team
5. NT.

 

[iameviljez]

I think 18 teams is ideal.
I am wholly unconvinced we have enough good players to fill 20 teams.
The drop in standards would be noticeable and diminish the product.

I disagree with this. Watch enough reels of footy from the 80s and earlier, and it's shocking just how much worse the skill base is. Dropped marks, missed passes, three-grab ball handling - what modern footballers can do with such limited time and space is miraculous compared with years gone by. And yet, people still watched.

IMO what can make the modern game unwatchable is the evolution of tactics and the development of team defence. It's winning football, but not always pretty football.

 

[iameviljez]

The West Coast game was not close to a sell out. There were thousands of tickets available an hour before the game and thus a crowd 6500 short of capacity. As I said, they did not sell out nice games last year. There were still tickets available for half of those.

Bear in mind that tickets at the Gabba are really pricey. Especially at fully ticketed games - there aren't many cheap seats, and they go immediately. Brisbane would have no issues getting 40k+ in a bigger ground.

 

[WillHayward]

I disagree with this. Watch enough reels of footy from the 80s and earlier, and it's shocking just how much worse the skill base is. Dropped marks, missed passes, three-grab ball handling - what modern footballers can do with such limited time and space is miraculous compared with years gone by. And yet, people still watched.

IMO what can make the modern game unwatchable is the evolution of tactics and the development of team defence. It's winning football, but not always pretty football.

Yes - but in the 80s they had full time jobs. Then had footy practice sessions after work and a Saturday game.

 

[iameviljez]

Yes - but in the 80s they had full time jobs. Then had footy practice sessions after work and a Saturday game.

I know, but that's beside my point. You're arguing that the skill base is such that a 20th team won't work - I'm arguing that skills (regardless of part-time status) used to be a lot lower and it was watchable.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Canberra makes a lot of sense to be honest. People all over the country move there due to work commitments due to the public service and armed forces. Most of which are people with families, so you could establish a supporter base. There already is a huge AFL supporter base there. As well, Canberra has a lot of festivals during the year, has the Australian War Memorial, along with other attractions, where entry is mostly a gold coin donation.

The average attendance for Manuka was on par with York park, and slightly less than the average on the Gold Coast. So is a viable option.

I think there's actually a lot of parallels with the Gold Coast.

Both cities with a heavy interstate population. Both have acted as secondary grounds.

When the Suns entered, the Gold Coast had 500k people. Canberra has that now.

But I think Canberra is coming from a higher base. Excluding the Bears in the early nineties, the Suns had just four seasons of hosting interstate teams. This year will be Manuka's 25th year of hosting games. Demand has been pent up for longer.

In those four seasons, Carrara averaged 10,057. Manuka's past four (non-Covid-affected) seasons averaged 11,669. And half of them were sell-outs, so we would have easily topped 12k if capacity allowed.

So I think we've definitely proven ourself as a viable option. It may be controversial, but I think we'll perform better off-field than the Suns did at the same early stages.

 

[BigHuddo]

I think a Sunshine Coast team would draw a little on population from northern Brisbane, I just dont think it could be included definitively in their territory. But as the northern suburbs creep further north, I guess new suburbs would be more inclined to support the Sunshine Coast.

A third SEQ team is actually my pick for Team 21.

I think I'm in the minority, but my preference is the Sunshine Coast over northern Brisbane.

If Team 21 comes I'm around 2050, the Sunshine Coast will have about 600k people. Northern Brisbane will have crept closer.

The NRL has bigger priorities. Perth, PNG, Adelaide, NZ2, Western Bris. Which means the AFL expanding there for Team 21 could easily get a foothold first. Would like to see a three games a year in the meantime.

Not opposed to northern Brisbane, I just like the idea of claiming the Sunshine Coast first.

What are you thoughts on Aspley getting the licence? Or would it have to be a fresh team?

Id rather the Sunshine Coast than a Brisbane suburb. In the NRL when they brought in the Dolphins hardly anybody in Northern Brisbane started supporting them and just stuck with the Broncos. They rarely fill out half of suncorp. Putting an AFL team in a place without a team already like the Sunny coast would be far more beneficial

 

[Canberra Pear]

Id rather the Sunshine Coast than a Brisbane suburb. In the NRL when they brought in the Dolphins hardly anybody in Northern Brisbane started supporting them and just stuck with the Broncos. They rarely fill out half of suncorp. Putting an AFL team in a place without a team already like the Sunny coast would be far more beneficial

Agreed. Might have a smaller population, but it's a more distinctive identity that people can rally around. And no competition from the Lions.

 

[WillHayward]

I know, but that's beside my point. You're arguing that the skill base is such that a 20th team won't work - I'm arguing that skills (regardless of part-time status) used to be a lot lower and it was watchable.

I'm more just talking about the overall pool of players . Will be watchable but will he a big gap between top 10 and bottom 10 at most clubs.
Bottom 10 are still ok with professional training environment.
We are seeing kids come in who aren't quite ready physically and more blokes coming in direct from the VFL and making an impact straight away.

 

[Walshawk]

Can I ask why you think tickets being available one hour before a game means it didn't sell out? You do know there are walk-ins that purchase tickets at the gate just before the game starts, right? There are even people who show up late and buy tickets at the gate after the first bounce (I've done it myself). You don't have to sell every ticket an hour before the game in order for it to be a sell out...

By the way, I suspect the Lions v Cats game will sell out the Gabba this weekend.

In that case find me someone who was turned away at the gate and I will concede a sellout.

For some of those games, the Lions have called a sellout even though at the time they called a sellout there were over 1000 tickets left. I doubt the walk up would be high after a sellout is called. Hence one of those ‘sellouts’ have been 10% below capacity.

Calling a sellout is good publicity and GWS have also dine it even when there are heaps of tickets left. I would assume the clubs feel the publicity of a sellout is worth more than a few hundred walk-ups.

 

[Nugett]

I think there's actually a lot of parallels with the Gold Coast.

Both cities with a heavy interstate population. Both have acted as secondary grounds.

When the Suns entered, the Gold Coast had 500k people. Canberra has that now.

But I think Canberra is coming from a higher base. Excluding the Bears in the early nineties, the Suns had just four seasons of hosting interstate teams. This year will be Manuka's 25th year of hosting games. Demand has been pent up for longer.

In those four seasons, Carrara averaged 10,057. Manuka's past four (non-Covid-affected) seasons averaged 11,669. And half of them were sell-outs, so we would have easily topped 12k if capacity allowed.

So I think we've definitely proven ourself as a viable option. It may be controversial, but I think we'll perform better off-field than the Suns did at the same early stages.

Having previously lived in Canberra, I know that there is a strong AFL presence.

 

[Bjo187]

Having previously lived in Canberra, I know that there is a strong AFL presence.

It would be interesting to know if the afl presence in Canberra now is higher than it was on the gold coast in 2010. I assume so but I wonder by how much?

 

[Nugett]

It would be interesting to know if the afl presence in Canberra now is higher than it was on the gold coast in 2010. I assume so but I wonder by how much?

When I left Canberra it was 2011. A mate of mine was in local development with Auskick and such. Unfortunately he died of a heart condition on a footy field playing masters. He was saying that participation was quite steady. Also working in Canberra, I met a fair few people from SA, TAS, WA and VIC, so there was always interest.

The smartest thing that the NRL probably did was establish the Raiders, as it gave the locals a “footy” team to support. Even the Expats victorians would say they support the Storm or Raiders.

So I can see an AFL team in Canberra, being somewhat of a success, as I think the locals will get behind the team to support it, even if they are League fans.

 

[GC2015]

Both Queensland teams are undefeated and sitting in the top 3 on the ladder with a guarantee of both finishing the week in the top 4. Records seem to be getting smashed every week by both teams. It's probably not a stretch to say this is the strongest Queensland footy has ever been and you'd think that will only continue to grow over the next 3-5 years.

But does it constitute another team in Queensland over the next few years? Do you strike while the iron is hot?

 

[Canberra Pear]

Both Queensland teams are undefeated and sitting in the top 3 on the ladder with a guarantee of both finishing the week in the top 4. Records seem to be getting smashed every week by both teams. It's probably not a stretch to say this is the strongest Queensland footy has ever been and you'd think that will only continue to grow over the next 3-5 years.

But does it constitute another team in Queensland over the next few years? Do you strike while the iron is hot?

A bit of a stretch. Both Sydney teams finished top four last year, should we introduce a third Sydney team?

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

A bit of a stretch. Both Sydney teams finished top four last year, should we introduce a third Sydney team?

In terms of a long term growth strategy, Sydney is too big for two teams to do the requisite school visits etc for locallised promotion to really get a footprint. But its very long term.

A south-west Sydney team should, after 40 years or so from start-up, do far better than Tasmania - and allow the Giants to focus more tightly on the vast Parramatta-Penrith corridor.
That said, doing better than Tasmania medium and long term might not be difficult. Promoting Port Melbourne may well do better financially after that time than Tassie.

 

[Canberra Pear]

In terms of a long term growth strategy, Sydney is too big for two teams to do the requisite school visits etc for locallised promotion to really get a footprint. But its very long term.

A south-west Sydney team should, after 40 years or so from start-up, do far better than Tasmania - and allow the Giants to focus more tightly on the vast Parramatta-Penrith corridor.
That said, doing better than Tasmania medium and long term might not be difficult. Promoting Port Melbourne may well do better financially after that time than Tassie.

Long-term, Sydney makes sense for a third team (after they get a full-time second team), but neither SEQ or Sydney third team will be ready for the 20th team.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

Long-term, Sydney makes sense for a third team (after they get a full-time second team), but neither SEQ or Sydney third team will be ready for the 20th team.

Not for the 20th, no, I probably have it 22nd or 23rd.

I'm not sure I see a 3rd SEQ team when the league reaches 24.

 

[Bjo187]

In terms of a long term growth strategy, Sydney is too big for two teams to do the requisite school visits etc for locallised promotion to really get a footprint. But its very long term.

A south-west Sydney team should, after 40 years or so from start-up, do far better than Tasmania - and allow the Giants to focus more tightly on the vast Parramatta-Penrith corridor.
That said, doing better than Tasmania medium and long term might not be difficult. Promoting Port Melbourne may well do better financially after that time than Tassie.

You're making the assumption though that each additional team grabs the same percentage of coverage as the first team. Even the swans struggle for coverage in Sydney, then the giants a fair way back from there, a third team wouldn't make a dent in this regard. I agree on school visits it would help, but the W teams should be near doubling the visits alone now.

There's also been a specific afl suppression agenda there, that started post federation when Australian football was booming in Sydney and still continues today.