A Third Team In Sydney - It's Only a Matter Of Time !!

[RedV3x]

"The NRL has been struggling to attract teenage boys to the sport."

Whilst all football codes and most sports have a nagging problem with a participation drop-off in teenage years.
With RU it seems to be the lack of FTA media to give that required inspiration.
With NRL I would suggest that the islander participation in the NRL (about 50%?) is having detrimental effects.
Non-islanders are being "scared off" for want of a better expression.
if you're not a heavy set kid then AFL and soccer might appear as more attractive and worthwhile.

 

[Kwality]

Whilst all football codes and most sports have a nagging problem with a participation drop-off in teenage years.
With RU it seems to be the lack of FTA media to give that required inspiration.
With NRL I would suggest that the islander participation in the NRL (about 50%?) is having detrimental effects.
Non-islanders are being "scared off" for want of a better expression.
if you're not a heavy set kid then AFL and soccer might appear as more attractive and worthwhile.

Thats certainly conventional wisdom for AFL followers. Not ever seen numbers on Islander NRL/RU participation, got a link?

 

[RedV3x]

Thats certainly conventional wisdom for AFL followers. Not ever seen numbers on Islander NRL/RU participation, got a link?

I'm pretty sure the figure is 50% for the NRL and almost that for the second tier competition.
I have no idea for juniors but discussion of weight-based leagues has been around for a long time.

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Has the rise of Pacific Islanders in the NRL influenced halves stocks?

Has the rise of Pacific Islanders in the NRL influenced halves stocks? News Limited recently published statistics showing the current number of NRL players of Pasifika decent is now 48%.

everythingrugbyleague.com

Even 2006. https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/is...s-its-a-really-big-issue-20060716-gdnz15.html

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I'm pretty sure the figure is 50% for the NRL and almost that for the second tier competition.
I have no idea for juniors but discussion of weight-based leagues has been around for a long time.

No Cookies | Daily Telegraph

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www.dailytelegraph.com.au

Has the rise of Pacific Islanders in the NRL influenced halves stocks?

Has the rise of Pacific Islanders in the NRL influenced halves stocks? News Limited recently published statistics showing the current number of NRL players of Pasifika decent is now 48%.

everythingrugbyleague.com

Even 2006. https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/is...s-its-a-really-big-issue-20060716-gdnz15.html

This is why I can’t understand the apparent lack of talent playing the game. They have found nearly an extra 50% of talent just out of the Islander community. Surely any drop off of talented white kids cant have been that huge in that time.
Edit. In terms of expansion

 

[BringBackTorps]

1. The issue for all the contact sports, & for their administrators, is that a big majority of their fans enjoy the big clashes (not to the head), & their general physicality.
There is a real danger that many fans will no longer follow RL, RU & AF if these sports become too "sanitised", with reduced clashes.

Soccer should have become the major spectator sport in Australia c. 120 years ago, such was the general affinity for the "mother country" (excluding many of Irish Catholic descent). The fact soccer did not (or now) is because most Australians considered a physical, contact sport much more exciting & admirable.

Whilst all football codes and most sports have a nagging problem with a participation drop-off in teenage years.

Yes, AF has a drop-off from U15's- & another when U19's finishes. Many have been playing since 5 y.o- an element of boredom/different interests & friends/working week-ends/chasing girls causes them to lose their enthusiasm.

The problem for the contact sports is that they are all "discriminating" against persons of a smaller stature. With persons from an Asian background (usually shorter in stature) increasing, in pop. % terms, this is a major problem for the contact sports. Also, of course, there are many other shorter persons who do not come from an Asian background.

The recent failure of the weight-based (not the usual age-based) jnr RL comp. in Aust. to increase nos. in jnr RL suggests that weight/size is not the only reason for the male RU/RL player decline (see above post#2275, point 2).
This view is supported by the significant long term decline in male jnr contact RU nos. in NZ- which has had weight-based jnr teams since the 1960's.
Male snr GR RU in NZ is also in a significant long term decline.



2. The GCFC received $27.5 m from the AFL in 2019- a record distribution.
The distributions were $24.7m in 2017, & $23.7 in 2018.

GCFC tried to deflect concern about the huge payment, arguing (validly) it has helped Qld. to have the the 2nd biggest school competitions, & 2nd biggest female participation, in the nation. The strong GR AF participation in Qld. constitutes an appreciated & large "monetary value" for the AFL

Despite the AFL's public :relaxed attitude"re the payments, it must have concerns- combined $75.9m, in 3 years, is an huge sum.

If other current expansion clubs require similar large bail-outs by the AFL on an annual basis, it is very unlikely there will be any concurrent further expansions in NSW/ACT for a long time (even if GWS was usually obtaining lock-out crowds in Sydney- which would be a necessary precursor for a 3rd team in Sydney). Only an increased future Rights' deal would alter the AFL's financial concerns.

Suns take biggest AFL slice

The Gold Coast Suns last year received the biggest slice of the AFL distribution with the expansion club earning $27 million from the league.

www.theage.com.au

 

[RedV3x]

Despite the AFL's public :relaxed attitude"re the payments, it must have concerns- combined $75.9m, in 3 years, is an huge sum.

What amount do the GCFC contribute to the media result?

 

[RedV3x]

This is why I can’t understand the apparent lack of talent playing the game. They have found nearly an extra 50% of talent just out of the Islander community. Surely any drop off of talented white kids cant have been that huge in that time.

i don't see that as much of a redeeming feature.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

i don't see that as much of a redeeming feature.

It’s got nothing to do with being a redeeming feature it’s just an observation that it’s extremely unlikely that the talent pool has dropped when they have found so much extra talent in the Islander community that wasn’t previously there.

 

[Les Malone]

There are 3 main junior RL comps in Sydney, Penrith, Parramatta and Cronulla, AFAIK and there has been newspaper articles or actual stats from the comps themselves, Penrith and Parramatta a number of years ago now had around 50% or more Islander kids in the comp, for Cronulla i suspect it is a lot less.

 

[Les Malone]

One of the big problems a third team in Sydney would have is finding or building a new stadium, the stadium must be in the area that this team will represent, its not like Melbourne or any other footy city, there is no base willing to travel out of area, particularly in a possible gridlocked town like Sydney.

You cant have a SW Sydney team playing at the SCG.

And the SW is where the next team if any team would emerge from - would come from.

Which leads back to a possible Canberra team or even less probable a Newcastle team.

But perhaps Sydney is just to big to not a have a third team at some stage.

 

[BringBackTorps]

1.

What amount do the GCFC contribute to the media result?

It was publicly announced, for the first time, in late Sept.2019 what the additional 9th game pw was worth for the AFL:-

. $60m pa- from GWS CEO D. Matthews, to finance journalist J. Stanley on 2GB The Money Program
. $54m pa- from respected & award-winning journalist & author C. Le Grand, from The Australian; & P. Durkin, AFR journalist (both using AFL sources)

I believe these figures also include indirect benefits for the AFL, GWS & GC ie govt. funded stadia , private sponsorship for GWS & GC, boom in GR regd. AF players nos. & extra MSM coverage in NSW, ACT & Qld.

For details, refer to this link

A Third Team In Sydney - It's Only a Matter Of Time !!

I agree to an extent, but i reckon that a third team will eventually be on the cards, the big drawback is unlike Melbourne the third team will need its own stadium within its own demographic area. That would mean another partnership with cricket perhaps. Its a big stretch but the population...

www.bigfooty.com

Despite these financial benefits, the AFL will be concerned if payments continue for GC at c. $27.5m pa on an annual basis (or for another expansion club). It was always known that Qld. & NSW expansion clubs would require additional funding for c. 20 years.



2.

You cant have a SW Sydney team playing at the SCG.

And the SW is where the next team if any team would emerge from - would come from.

Which leads back to a possible Canberra team or even less probable a Newcastle team.

But perhaps Sydney is just to big to not a have a third team at some stage.

Agree.
The 3rd Sydney team will probably be a South Sydney Canberra combined team- perhaps in c. 2035, if GWS regularly has full houses at Homebush.
It will probably play 6 home games pa in SW Sydney, 5 in Canberra- plus 3 (?) Away games in Wollongong (sold to the Illawarra by an impecunious Melb. Club).



3. Recently "The Sydney Swans have spread out for school visits all over the harbour city...to the delight of thousands of students"

J. Amartey, who joined Sydney in 2018, said

"Coming into what's my third year of school visits, I think compared to my first year, there would be close to double the amount of kids playing the game...I've seen first hand just how quickly footy in Sydney is growing".*

* GR AF club & school comp. nos. in Sydney have increased, but not doubled since 2018.

Amartey seeing huge growth of AFL first-hand

The Sydney Swans have spread out for school visits all over the harbour city, greeting assemblies, running footy clinics, signing autographs and taking snaps to the delight of thousands of students.

aflnswact.com.au

 

[RedV3x]

It’s got nothing to do with being a redeeming feature it’s just an observation that it’s extremely unlikely that the talent pool has dropped when they have found so much extra talent in the Islander community that wasn’t previously there.

I agree with your talent pool theory, but IMO, the much greater problem is Australians not playing the game.
That has ramifications that go the heart of the game.

 

[RedV3x]

Despite these financial benefits, the AFL will be concerned if payments continue for GC at c. $27.5m pa on an annual basis (or for another expansion club). It was always known that Qld. & NSW expansion clubs would require additional funding for c. 20 years.

Yes, the AFL would be concerned at any large ongoing expense, but as you said the AFL expected it and budgeted for it.
If you take both teams then arguably and IMO it has been a success and paid for itself.

On the subject of expansion one would argue that a third Sydney or Perth team isn't going to add so much to the media return
since both cities have AFL weekly. The law of diminishing returns. The best targets are large cities new to AFL.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

The best targets are large cities new to AFL.

Are there any viable ones though? Canberra won't get a team because they're propping up GWS at the moment, and Newcastle barely cares about AFL (and doesn't have a quality oval ground). I guess they could try a few games in Auckland if they build that new cricket ground.

 

[Colonial]

Are there any viable ones though? Canberra won't get a team because they're propping up GWS at the moment, and Newcastle barely cares about AFL (and doesn't have a quality oval ground). I guess they could try a few games in Auckland if they build that new cricket ground.

Propping up? Do tell.


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[RedV3x]

Are there any viable ones though?

That is the question. Obviously AFL is nicely positioned with two teams in every large Australian city plus more.
So. it's the law of demising returns. What are the next best options. Do we really want/need to expand?

Canberra won't get a team because they're propping up GWS at the moment, and Newcastle barely cares about AFL (and doesn't have a quality oval ground). I guess they could try a few games in Auckland if they build that new cricket ground.

Canberra, like Tasmania could step aside from being under their AFL club umbrella that they are currently under.
Australian Football in Auckland was progressing according to plan but the lack of suitable ground has ground things to a halt.
It does sound strange to say, oh we don't have an AFL team in N.Z. because there isn't a ground big enough.
Newcastle, IMO is a possibility. Newcastle has a very long Australian Football history and the scene is quite buoyant a.t.m
but to install an AFL team in Newcastle would take a lot of time and the AFL haven't really started.
So the discussion returns to Sydney... and Perth.....

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Propping up? Do tell.

Is your club losing money on games in Canberra or something?

 

[Colonial]

Is your club losing money on games in Canberra or something?

I asked a question. Do you have an answer?


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[Johnny Bananas]

I asked a question. Do you have an answer?

That wasn't a question. Do you deny GWS has a significant number of members in Canberra and boosts their finances by playing games there?

 

[Colonial]

That wasn't a question. Do you deny GWS has a significant number of members in Canberra and boosts their finances by playing games there?

Don’t deny we have around 6k members last year down there and Canberra pays a sponsorship deal. They don’t prop us up though.

AFL props us up.


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[RedV3x]

Don’t deny we have around 6k members last year down there and Canberra pays a sponsorship deal. They don’t prop us up though.AFL props us up.

I wouldn't say that. I would say that the expansion clubs are sustained by the revenue they generate.
When the Sydney Swans were the only club to VFL play on a Sunday, the Swans sustained the VFL.
If the Swans had received 50% of the revenue generated they would have quickly become the most powerful club in Australia.
If the Swans had been allowed to build clubrooms adjacent to the SCG the Swans they would have become more powerful sooner
Instead the RL dominated SCG built a useless stadium next door.
Now they're compounding the stupidity by rebuilding virtually the same stadium.
Now the proposed clients are demanding the stadium facilitate a half-empty mode at the government's cost.

 

[thegreig]

That is the question. Obviously AFL is nicely positioned with two teams in every large Australian city plus more.
So. it's the law of demising returns. What are the next best options. Do we really want/need to expand?



Canberra, like Tasmania could step aside from being under their AFL club umbrella that they are currently under.
Australian Football in Auckland was progressing according to plan but the lack of suitable ground has ground things to a halt.
It does sound strange to say, oh we don't have an AFL team in N.Z. because there isn't a ground big enough.
Newcastle, IMO is a possibility. Newcastle has a very long Australian Football history and the scene is quite buoyant a.t.m
but to install an AFL team in Newcastle would take a lot of time and the AFL haven't really started.
So the discussion returns to Sydney... and Perth.....

I can only see the AFL going to either:
-Newcastle/ Central Coast
-North Queensland (playing games out of Cairns and Townsville)
-South Sydney/ ACT Riverina

New Zealand will go back to StKilda once there is a suitable stadium.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Don’t deny we have around 6k members last year down there and Canberra pays a sponsorship deal. They don’t prop us up though.

AFL props us up.

In the sense that the AFL keeps you financially, yes. I meant it in the sense that Canberra keeps your membership numbers up and ensures there's no real attendance dropoff during the Easter Show. The point being it's adding to your club's stability, so the AFL are not about to take it away anytime soon.

 

[Colonial]

In the sense that the AFL keeps you financially, yes. I meant it in the sense that Canberra keeps your membership numbers up and ensures there's no real attendance dropoff during the Easter Show. The point being it's adding to your club's stability, so the AFL are not about to take it away anytime soon.

I actually disagree and have always thought that the 3+1 deal has hurt the club in Western Sydney.


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[The_Reaper]

There is definitely capacity to play 22 games in Sydney.