Autopsy AFL 2021 First Preliminary Final - Demons v Cats Fri September 10th 7:50pm EST / 5:50pm WST (Optus)

[PhatBoy]

Just what ARE you saying then? I can’t see you actually sticking your neck out and saying anything except to try and counter my points. Do you think Geelong will win? If so, why will they win?

Cherry-picking: the action or practice of choosing and taking only the most beneficial or profitable items, opportunities, etc., from what is available.

You said I was doing a very odd form of cherry picking.

My position is Melbourne, for the significant majority of both games between these teams this year, when each team’s ball movement patterns are consistent, have scored much more than Geelong. By ~70 points in fact and it would be greater if Melbourne had finished at even an AFL average rate in round 4.

I identified there is a relatively brief window of around 30 minutes where there is distinctly different ball movement patterns from both teams, and Geelong easily out scored Melbourne, by ~45 points. 30 of those points came in four minutes - which is not to say it doesn’t count or should be completely ignored, but that sort of burst is very rare. Both Geelong and Melbourne were moving the ball through the centre instead of Geelong’s usual sideways switching pattern and Melbourne’s usual attacking wing dominant pattern.

Disregarding half of the history of this year’s meetings between the teams in its entirety as “I wouldn’t take too much out of the first game” because of poor form and lineup is cherry picking, plus it ignores Melbourne also have a stronger team than in round 4.

Saying the relatively brief period in the second game where Geelong got right on top is “one team simply beating another” is cherry picking unless you’re happy to acknowledge Melbourne was “simply beating” Geelong for 80%+ of their game time this year.

If it’s that easy to beat Melbourne, why didn’t Geelong just “simply beat” Melbourne for the last 45 minutes of play in round 23? Geelong knew they couldn’t repeat that dominance, and they tried to kill time and hang on instead.

Check the round 23 game day thread. At half time I stuck my neck out and said I wasn’t that concerned because I didn’t think the way Geelong dominated was sustainable and therefore unlikely to repeat. There was much lol reactions. But I was right - although I had no expectation Geelong would lose at half time and my comment was more about potential future match ups like this Friday.

I think Geelong absolutely can win as they have several exceptional players. But I think it’s unlikely that enough of those exceptional players will fire for long enough on Friday, predominantly based on the data that shows they haven’t been able to for a sustained period yet this year against Melbourne.

So hang on. Melbourne didn’t have any sort of ascendency in the second game outside of the last 25 minutes. The biggest lead they held prior was 9 points and that was fairly brief. Yet that’s turned into them dominating the majority of the game. But the cats dominating the third quarter of the first game doesn’t seem to count for anything?

 

[Islanda22]

In Round 23 Melbourne won 3 of the 4 quarters (Melbourne 11.7.73 to Geelong 4.4.28)

Geelong obviously had an amazing 2ndQ but if Melbourne can hold off Geelong winning 2 quarters then they win comfortably

In the 2 games played this season Geelong has only won 2/8 quarters

 

[Stephen Reynoldson]

In Round 23 Melbourne won 3 of the 4 quarters (Melbourne 11.7.73 to Geelong 4.4.28)

Geelong obviously had an amazing 2ndQ but if Melbourne can hold off Geelong winning 2 quarters then they win comfortably

In the 2 games played this season Geelong has only won 2/8 quarters

in rd 23 Melbourne, similar to Geelong dominated one 5 min period, where they kicked 4 goals, same as Geelong’s 5 min period.

After that Geelong steadied and had a few good chances to score goals but didn’t take them, so Melbourne finished on top, kicking two more goals.

The first qtr and a bit Melbourne we’re on top dominating clearances and Oliver had 17 touches, but they could only score a couple of goals. This is their issue. A very average fwd line, that won’t be able to capitalise even if they get on top for awhile in the midfield.

First game is irrelevant. Geelong we’re struggling early in the season after finishing late October. Melbourne we’re flying, having enjoyed the 5 extra weeks off and a decent pre season.

 

[And_ROOS]

Cats will win.
The media has already pencilled in Melbourne for the flag, and every time they do that for any team, they inevitably choke

Except the media backed in Richmond in 2020, 2019, Hawks were backed in strongly in 2014 and 2015, Pies were the faves in 2010 (that said nearly bottled it).

 

[Catsnlakers]

Your players are old and need more than the Auskick style oranges to get the boost of energy required for a big game. Geelong will need to play out of their skins while hoping Melbourne have an off night.

Did you also believe this in 2015!? When you travelled to Perth as the oldest team to play the minor premier in a Prelim after going the long way around?....Too much is made of the age thing, now I’m not saying for one second we’ll win, but if we lose it won’t be because of our age.

 

[PhatBoy]

In Round 23 Melbourne won 3 of the 4 quarters (Melbourne 11.7.73 to Geelong 4.4.28)

Geelong obviously had an amazing 2ndQ but if Melbourne can hold off Geelong winning 2 quarters then they win comfortably

In the 2 games played this season Geelong has only won 2/8 quarters

And one of those quarters they won by seven goals or so. Breaking even in the third and winning marginally in the first doesn’t hold a lot.

 

[JohnZ]

Just what ARE you saying then? I can’t see you actually sticking your neck out and saying anything except to try and counter my points. Do you think Geelong will win? If so, why will they win?

Reasons why we can win compared to Rd23 (like other posters, Rd4 is just too far back to be a meaningful comparison imo, both in terms of on field 22 and team structures).

I'm going early here on assuming team selection, this is ofc subject to change.

1. Our forward line can silo your intercepting defenders. Can Lever match up on one of our small defenders if we play Hawkins, Cameron, Sav? At best (for you) he could play on Rohan. We can use those 3/4 aforementioned players to spread your defence out wide and deep. Separation is the key here.

2. Forward line entry. We were badly missing Duncan and Tuohy who are both elite kicks into the F50. There are going to be times where we can't get the separation I talked about in point 1. Sometimes you need to pinpoint a kick into the 50 to exploit the zone. That's extra class we were missing in Rd23

3. A more settled defence. Playing Blicavs as the full back and the in-play ruckman just ddidn't work. We've looked at all sorts since Stewart went out as we've had no structure down back. When Stewart was back there, blitz could roll back to free up stewy. Now we need him down there full time, that Sav will take over as 2nd ruck. You'll see Bews, Henry, Tuohy, Smith, Menegola rebounding off half back with some pace and dare. Your system is working if Blitz is taking it on, god help us all.

4. Finals experience. We've been there and done that. Melbourne hasn't. Gotta count for something right?

5. That 2nd Q in Rd23 helps us more than the 4th Q in Rd23 hurts us. We now know what we need to do to break the game open, and we also know what we need to fix to stop the onslaught the other way.

edit: we got 4 goals closer going from just Hawkins to Hawkins + Cameron. Does adding Sav to that mix add another 4 goals? If so, a 23 point win to the cats is in order.

 

[Milang_Panthers]

Will not be surprised if the cats get up here.

 

[Toump Ass]

1. Our forward line can silo your intercepting defenders. Can Lever match up on one of our small defenders if we play Hawkins, Cameron, Sav? At best (for you) he could play on Rohan.

Stopped reading here.
Why would we bother putting anyone on Rohan.

 

[JohnZ]

Stopped reading here.
Why would we bother putting anyone on Rohan.

Your reading comprehension skills are elite, I'll give you that

I wasn't saying that Lever would play a lockdown role on a small forward (close, miers) or Rohan. That's not his game. What I was saying is that the best case scenario for you is that Rohan is his opponent and he can roll off to intercept. If Lever gets stuck 1on1 against Hawkins, Cameron or Sav then you're stretched thin.

Comprende?

 

[Toump Ass]

Your reading comprehension skills are elite, I'll give you that

I wasn't saying that Lever would play a lockdown role on a small forward (close, miers) or Rohan. That's not his game. What I was saying is that the best case scenario for you is that Rohan is his opponent and he can roll off to intercept. If Lever gets stuck 1on1 against Hawkins, Cameron or Sav then you're stretched thin.

Comprende?

Oh, god yeah. No you're right.
Lever's had a tremendous year, can't recall a bad game from him this season. Hopefully he can do what he usually does for us, because he's super important.

Our defence is elite but I think your forward line is underrated. A little worried about how many options you have, but I'm banking on our midfield winning the battle and taking it from there.

 

[Biffinator]

This is one of the most energy-sapping threads I have ever read. Cant we just get the game underway now?

 

[Demonic Ascent]

So hang on. Melbourne didn’t have any sort of ascendency in the second game outside of the last 25 minutes. The biggest lead they held prior was 9 points and that was fairly brief. Yet that’s turned into them dominating the majority of the game. But the cats dominating the third quarter of the first game doesn’t seem to count for anything?

I don't think we dominated the game but I think we had it played on our terms. We had our structures set up behind the ball and had enough forward 50 entries but weren't capitalising on that. The Cats kicked 4 goals in around 2-3 minutes without Melbourne even touching the ball! I can't imagine that will happen again.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

in rd 23 Melbourne, similar to Geelong dominated one 5 min period, where they kicked 4 goals, same as Geelong’s 5 min period.

After that Geelong steadied and had a few good chances to score goals but didn’t take them, so Melbourne finished on top, kicking two more goals.

The first qtr and a bit Melbourne we’re on top dominating clearances and Oliver had 17 touches, but they could only score a couple of goals. This is their issue. A very average fwd line, that won’t be able to capitalise even if they get on top for awhile in the midfield.

First game is irrelevant. Geelong we’re struggling early in the season after finishing late October. Melbourne we’re flying, having enjoyed the 5 extra weeks off and a decent pre season.

By the same token, second game is irrelevant because it was played on a high school oval. Tomorrow will be on a full sized field

 

[JohnZ]

I don't think we dominated the game but I think we had it played on our terms. We had our structures set up behind the ball and had enough forward 50 entries but weren't capitalising on that. The Cats kicked 4 goals in around 2-3 minutes without Melbourne even touching the ball! I can't imagine that will happen again.

For me the 1st and 3rd Q's were a genuine arm wrestle, very intense like a final. In the 2nd it broke open our way, and in the 4th yours. Both clubs would've learnt a lot from each respective Q.

Just as likely we won't get a 4/8 goal run-on like we did in the 2nd, we also won't make the same errors we did in the 4th either. So goes both ways. Should be a cracking game.

 

[JohnZ]

By the same token, second game is irrelevant because it was played on a high school oval. Tomorrow will be on a full sized field

Cats have played better on the big grounds this year, so good point

 

[And_ROOS]

If Melbourne lose to Geelong this weekend I will be putting money on them winning the flag next year.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

You'll see the best interceptor in the game play on a bloke who excels at finding the least dangerous space on a Football field.

I don't like how crucial that match up looks like being. Kind of like betting your entire bank and getting a 16 against a picture.

 

[wowlace]

This is one of the most energy-sapping threads I have ever read. Cant we just get the game underway now?

I've never seen so much redundant analysis. Some big smooth brain stuff.

I have no idea who to pick in this game. Just a classic case of who turns up on the day. Both teams hopefully.

 

[Murraj1966]

The bitter person in me looking at the premiership drought ladder doesn't want to be last man standing.

Go Cats.

 

[Islanda22]

Can't fathom why no love for the Dees LOL

Jealousy at its finest

 

[Mitchell Madness]

Can't fathom why no love for the Dees LOL

Jealousy at its finest

No love? Most people think the dees will win

 

[Northernsoul74]

Can't fathom why no love for the Dees LOL

Jealousy at its finest

Strong favourites with the bookies. Plenty of love.

 

[PanzerMan]

This will be close but I think Melbourne get through.

 

[Stephen Reynoldson]

By the same token, second game is irrelevant because it was played on a high school oval. Tomorrow will be on a full sized field

No doubt that will be a factor, but not sure who it favours more. We’ve been more suited to the big grounds this year. It will help our big forwards get separation and allow us the space to pass it around at the back when we need to take pace out of the game.

On the other hand it might suit the dees running and ball movement from d50 to f50.

Dees are far from bulletproof, as evidenced at the G in rd 19 against dogs. Oliver, Gawn Petracca all had big nights, but wasn’t enough to kick a winning score, even against the dogs limited attack and defence,

Cats will get it done by a few goals…. Unless we’re cooked which looked a distinct possibility watching the qf.