Autopsy AFL 2024 First Elimination Final - Lions v Blues Sat Sept 7th 7:30pm EST (Gabba) - Teams in OP

[CCurnow3votes]

Charlie, Harry, Williams, TDK
Cerra and Boyd won't be ready. Hopefully they've learnt their lesson with Martin and won't select him either.
Doc may be a surprise inclusion as the sub

Hard not to love those ins - TDK will be interesting - it’s a big ask coming straight back into a final after so long.

I’d prefer Martin as sub - can play anywhere & be impactful very quickly.

 

[BandF]

Please win Blues, would be epic lolz

 

[Stratton_Gun]

Only way Blues win is if Brisbane kick something like 10.20 and Blues kick 13.5

In saying that, I wouldn't put it past the Lions to do so

 

[Miluxx]

Only way Blues win is if Brisbane kick something like 10.20 and Blues kick 13.5

In saying that, I wouldn't put it past the Lions to do so

There is every chance that happens.

 

[Miluxx]

Anyone find the odds for this abit off? I know Carlton haven't been their best but surely it's closer then that.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

Anyone find the odds for this abit off? I know Carlton haven't been their best but surely it's closer then that.

I’m not a betting man, guessing they want Carlton supporters money!

Odds are not a market indicator - they’re fixed by the betting companies of course.

None the less -Brisbane are rightfully heavy favourites in this one - Blues not without a chance as many players return.

The question will be how they balance the debutants who’ve shown so much in the past few games vs the returning crew?

Watch the odds change as The Blues load up again & punters jump on.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

Lions should look to lock down early while the umps give the Blues the first half rub we all know is coming.
Keep them close and await the 2nd half square up that inevitibly follows.

Lions by 35pts in a 50pt turnaround.

 

[Toffee Lion]

If we kick straight we should win this comfortably. Not likely to kick straight though which will leave this up in the air.

Carlton will relish the free shot essentially. Even though they were bog average against the Saints, I think there is enough quality there to find another gear come finals. Lions by 5 in a nailbiter.

 

[KnaveyBlue]

Lions should look to lock down early while the umps give the Blues the first half rub we all know is coming.

Not sure where you get this from given Carlton were down 1-12 on free kicks just before half time vs Saints.

Owies out is frustrating. Our only consistent small forward.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

Not sure where you get this from given Carlton were down 1-12 on free kicks just before half time vs Saints.

Owies out is frustrating. Our only consistent small forward.

Umm, the fact that it went 14-5 to you in the 2nd.
Umps like to go hard for the underdog early to make it interesting and balance it up late to cover it up.

Cats, at home inparticular, the exception.

 

[KnaveyBlue]

Umps like to go hard for the underdog early to make it interesting and balance it up late to cover it up.

Carlton had 11 out and Saints were paying $1.72.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

Carlton had 11 out and Saints were paying $1.72.

And they only just fell over the line because..Saints

 

[Chief]

 

[Elixuh]

 

[CCurnow3votes]

 

[Chief]

Are we video duelling?

 

[CCurnow3votes]

Are we video duelling?

Indeed - I have recency bias!

 

[Rotayjay]

This is the least interesting of the Week One finals on paper and the Lions should account for the Blues fairly easily at home. But if Carlton win it could be the most interesting game of the week in hindsight. Could happen but unlikely.

 

[Bagger72]

Should be getting plenty of class back that know their roles. Played alot of youngsters and p[layers in unfamiliar roles last 6-8 rounds of the season due to that disgraceful injury list.

Docherty, TDK, McGovern, Cerra, Curnow, McKay, Williams, Martin

Plenty of AA, B&F, Best 22 under 22 and quality footballers in that group.

 

[BangyBangy]

Should be getting plenty of class back that know their roles. Played alot of youngsters and p[layers in unfamiliar roles last 6-8 rounds of the season due to that disgraceful injury list.

Docherty, TDK, McGovern, Cerra, Curnow, McKay, Williams, Martin

Plenty of AA, B&F, Best 22 under 22 and quality footballers in that group.

Will certainly be an interesting watch to see how many changes are made. Eight changes is huge for any game, let alone a final. Selection committee earning their wage this week.

 

[Mr Meow]

Should be getting plenty of class back that know their roles. Played alot of youngsters and p[layers in unfamiliar roles last 6-8 rounds of the season due to that disgraceful injury list.

Docherty, TDK, McGovern, Cerra, Curnow, McKay, Williams, Martin

Plenty of AA, B&F, Best 22 under 22 and quality footballers in that group.

It would be insane to play Docherty.

 

[Bagger72]

It would be insane to play Docherty.

He's definitely built differently to us mere mortals. He has been in full contact training past six weeks - he will play.

 

[RAPPA]

It would be insane to play Docherty.

On what basis? If he has ticked the boxes then how is it any different to being declared fit for any other game? I understand the speculation about the short duration of his recovery but everyone is different and frankly it sounds as if he’ll be in a more fit state than Charlie

 

[Mr Meow]

On what basis? If he has ticked the boxes then how is it any different to being declared fit for any other game? I understand the speculation about the short duration of his recovery but everyone is different and frankly it sounds as if he’ll be in a more fit state than Charlie

30+ years old and a 3rd ACL is simply not a good combination to take even the slightest chance in this situation.

Going extra conservative and preparing Sam for next year would be the wisest cause of action. Think how much extra strength and conditioning work he can get through. Carlton aren't contending for a premiership this season but they could in 2025.

Look, it'll probably be fine if he plays but the risk to reward profile just isn't there for most clubs. Carlton are mad enough that I do think they'll seriously consider playing him though, that's the scary thing.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Everything in my head says we get smashed, but something within says we're gonna win by 23