Autopsy AFL 2024 Preliminary Final - Cats v Lions Sat Sept 21st 5:15pm EST (MCG)

[PhatBoy]

I find that a bit hard to believe

I’m disappointed, any team’s fans are when they lose, but I’m not going to tear my hair out over it. We were never expected to get this far, we gave it a great crack, and were beaten by a better side, and dozens of neutrals seem to be celebrating like their own teams have just won a flag

 

[ijaxcat]

I've never said you were a bottom 6 side.
Stop listening to the uneducated, its clearly yours to lose now.
Im just worried that you arent finals match hardened like Brisbane are.

They've got a free throw at the stumps and will bring the heat from the opening minutes.
Who wants to miss a GF from a Brisbane hard tackle?
Has to enter players minds that you might end up limping over the line in this one.

This has got 2022 written all over it, Bris having a tough game the week before with
the emotion of getting up in a tight finish. In 2022 they already played their grand
final the week before the prelim, just as they did last week.

 

[Happy_Neale]

Steven King suffers medical episode at training

Not good

 

[Miluxx]

Shocking news regarding King. Hoping for the best.

 

[Chinacats]

Both teams under pressure to win. To say one team is under more pressure than the other is just silly banter. There is a GF spot and possible premiership to play for….
I think the lions are the best team , so can get this done. However I like the more speedy cats game style and hoping they can reproduce that dare, speed, quick play on style and immense pressure that they showed against the power….
Should be a good one! No injuries or concussion to the winning team or losing team for that matter! Go cats!

 

[joe444]

Y'know, on purely numbers terms it shouldn't even be close.

Since round 9, Brisbane have only lost 3 times by an average of 11 points.
Since round 9, Geelong have lost 8 times by an average of 29 points.

And yet my eyes tell me something different. Even in the St Kilda game, Geelong looked lethal.

So I'm actually thinking we might win.

Maybe it's just because I can't think of a Geelong player who is carrying an injury or who isn't in ripping form right now.

 

[MF]

Steven King suffers medical episode at training

Not good

Geez. Hope he's okay.

 

[mikey127]

I think we're actually a better chance of a flag next year.

Kiddy Doddee and Linc back. Plus add the best kod in the draft.

 

[mikey127]

I do get a chuckle out of this as I wasn't totally aware this was a thing until a few years back. It's funny when Vic's cry about people yelling ball but when you watch any game from any state on TV all fans do the same.

Who are the broncos anyway?

Just a bunch of Ponnies. Go Storm

 

[Sherrinator]

SDK was good in the VFL last week, I definitely would have picked him.

He’s an emergency. Old mind games Scott will pick him

 

[Sherrinator]

This medical episode should really galvanise Geelong

 

[bloodsbigot]

Batter each other tomorrow guys.

 

[Xtreme]

If Geelong lose this it'll be their biggest missed opportunity since the 2013 prelimination final (lol) against Hawthorn.

Whomever wins tomorrow nights prelim, will easily account for a lacklustre Sydney next week!

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Geelong are better odds then Lions to win the flag, but Lachie Neale is better odds to win the Norm Smith then any Geelong player.

Just found that quite interesting.

I couldn't pick a Geelong player to even put forward as a brownlow candidate so not sure what's surprising

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Interesting but ultimately meaningless stat time

None of the 4 prelim final teams have a positive record in finals over the last decade.
2015-2024 incl

Port 3-6
Geelong 10-10
Brisbane 7-7
Sydney 6-9

I think the only way to get a positive ledger is to win the premiership or make a prelim from outside Top 4. It's a pretty constrained metric.

Top 4 wins premiership
www: 100%
Lwww: 75%

Top 4 doesn't win it
Wl: 50%
Lwl: 25%

Bottom 4 wins premiership:
Wwww: 100%

Bottom 4 loses premiership:
WwwL: 75%
WwL: 67%
Wl: 50%
L: 0%

After thought: consider a side that went top 4, lost their qualifier, then won their semi, then lost their prelim. On % finals won they rate as being worse than the side they beat on the semi who is 50% against their 33%

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I’m going to start a thread about how it’s time Geelong start a rebuild and why they fail in finals at home approximately 2 minutes after the final siren.

You know you can just bump the ones already there

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Haven’t picked De Koning or Hawkins. Now just imagine Daniher kicks a bag and Shannon Neale is shut down. The tactics mastermind couldn’t possibly lose the game at the selection table?

If Neale gets shut down Hawkins would have had no hope. SDK is coming off surgery.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I think we're actually a better chance of a flag next year.

Kiddy Doddee and Linc back. Plus add the best kod in the draft.

I hope Linc comes back. I miss that guy

 

[eddiesmith]

Given Brisbanes appalling MCG record, if Geelong lose this it’ll be the biggest finals choke since Port Adelaide 2002-2003.

 

[Wojcinski]

Given Brisbanes appalling MCG record, if Geelong lose this it’ll be the biggest finals choke since Port Adelaide 2002-2003.

 

[FootyLad0]

Given Brisbanes appalling MCG record, if Geelong lose this it’ll be the biggest finals choke since Port Adelaide 2002-2003.

Bro what? We weren’t even predicted to make the 8 lol

All the pressure is on Brisbane and their Rolls Royce midfield to get it done, if the Cats lose it’ll be “oh well, no one had them top 4 anyway”

If Lions lose, it’s going to be another loss to Geelong in a Prelim and the knives will come out left, right and centre for Fagan.

 

[BRAB]

Bro what? We weren’t even predicted to make the 8 lol

All the pressure is on Brisbane and their Rolls Royce midfield to get it done, if the Cats lose it’ll be “oh well, no one had them top 4 anyway”

If Lions lose, it’s going to be another loss to Geelong in a Prelim and the knives will come out left, right and centre for Fagan.

Even if we win it won’t stop the knives being out for Fagan. David King has had it out for Fages ever since he ran over his dog.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

The Steven King

Steven King

Age

45

Ht

201cm

Wt

104kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.8

3star

K

7.9

3star

HB

4.9

4star

CL

1.3

3star

HO

16.8

5star

No current season stats available

D

11.8

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

5.4

4star

HO

8.8

5star

medical episode is the sort of thing that can really unsettle a team, both that it happened right in front of them as well as what it does to the matchday planning.

 

[50Lions]

I couldn't pick a Geelong player to even put forward as a brownlow candidate so not sure what's surprising

Well the fact you need to actually appear in a Grand Final to win the Norm Smith.. So Lachie Neale is more chance to win the Norm Smith over Geelong players despite them being more chance of actually playing.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Well the fact you need to actually appear in a Grand Final to win the Norm Smith.. So Lachie Neale is more chance to win the Norm Smith over Geelong players despite them being more chance of actually playing.

I still don't think that's surprising at all. The odds of the Norm Smith being a Cats player in general would be higher, but you couldn't pick which one. Brisbane, Neale would be a clear favourite and the remaining odds would be much longer.

If Brisbane make it i probably wouldn't have money on Neale because of the injury but there would be a ton of casual punters that would and that would drive bookies to shorten the odds way out of something that reflects the actual probability

 

[mikey127]

I hope Linc comes back. I miss that guy

If Linc was available he probably cones in but not a 100% guarantee. Kai Lohman has effectively taken his spot and had a great year.