Recruiting AFL Draft Watch 2022 - Tsatas, Hayes, Davey x2, Munkara & Montgomerie

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central.rookieme.com

 

[Nifft]

We asked 16 draft prospects which AFL teams they support. Some could ultimately land at their favourite club

We asked 16 draft prospects which AFL teams they support. Some could land at their favourite club

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[Bjchan13]

What about George?

I thought he was projected around top 10ish before his ACL, so we might look to him if he slips before a Davey bid.

George, Konstanty or Cowan

 

[Yoda_]

What about George?

I thought he was projected around top 10ish before his ACL, so we might look to him if he slips before a Davey bid.

Would be a very Adrian Dodoro thing to do, take a player and pretty much once he lands up on the stage to shake hands place him on the inactive list and claim we had him as a top 10 prospect whilst still maintaining a SSP opportunity.

Very, VERY Adrian Dodoro

 

[Cup_o_Jobe]

Been thinking more on the Mahoney "between 4 and 12 are really even" sentiment.

I'm warming to the idea of both trading with Saints to turn 4 into 9 + F1, and with Giants to turn 22 + F2 into 15, and we end up turning 4, 22, F1, F2 into 9, 15, F1, F1.

if our recruiting team genuinely sees little gap between say drafting Tsatas at 4 or a Humphrey/Phillipou/MacKenzie at 9, there is a lot to be said for improving our draft hand next year (and getting a second top 15 player ahead of ADJ this year) without sacrificing much in the way of quality on EFC's internal draft board.

 

[Yoda_]

Been thinking more on the Mahoney "between 4 and 12 are really even" sentiment.

I'm warming to the idea of both trading with Saints to turn 4 into 9 + F1, and with Giants to turn 22 + F2 into 15, and we end up turning 4, 22, F1, F2 into 9, 15, F1, F1.

if our recruiting team genuinely sees little gap between say drafting Tsatas at 4 or a Humphrey/Phillipou/MacKenzie at 9, there is a lot to be said for improving our draft hand next year (and getting a second top 15 player ahead of ADJ this year) without sacrificing much in the way of quality on EFC's internal draft board.

List spots this year may deny us getting full value out of doing this unless of course we are really confident Jayden makes it through to the rookie draft or Munkara.

 

[ant555]

List spots this year may deny us getting full value out of doing this unless of course we are really confident Jayden makes it through to the rookie draft or Munkara.

True. A lot of scenarios have been thrown up but list spots have always been tight. Given Tasmania comes in in maybe 3 or 4 years I think we have landed in the right zone to be going to the draft in this period. Check your PM

 

[Bjchan13]

Been thinking more on the Mahoney "between 4 and 12 are really even" sentiment.

I'm warming to the idea of both trading with Saints to turn 4 into 9 + F1, and with Giants to turn 22 + F2 into 15, and we end up turning 4, 22, F1, F2 into 9, 15, F1, F1.

if our recruiting team genuinely sees little gap between say drafting Tsatas at 4 or a Humphrey/Phillipou/MacKenzie at 9, there is a lot to be said for improving our draft hand next year (and getting a second top 15 player ahead of ADJ this year) without sacrificing much in the way of quality on EFC's internal draft board.

But why are the Saints giving up their F1 to move up 5 spots?

 

[TheGrizz]

List spots this year may deny us getting full value out of doing this unless of course we are really confident Jayden makes it through to the rookie draft or Munkara.

It's an interesting one, in theory 9, 15 and our later picks is the same amount of picks as 4, 22 and our later picks.

However if we trade a F2 to move up from 22 it takes away the flexibility to trade picks in later perhaps if we are worried Munkara will go before 40 or to avoid going into defecit.

 

[sherrif]

It's an interesting one, in theory 9, 15 and our later picks is the same amount of picks as 4, 22 and our later picks.

However if we trade a F2 to move up from 22 it takes away the flexibility to trade picks in later perhaps if we are worried Munkara will go before 40 or to avoid going into defecit.

If you took pick 22 to the draft and Davey went in the top 15 then you could trade pick 23 (after Ashcroft bid) and a future 4th rounder for pick 31 and 44 from Fremantle. 44 looks like being pick 40 after Brisbane's Ashcroft bid. Your later picks will move up a ton of places before Munkara is bid on if he's bid on in the late 30's.

 

['51 Bewick]

If you took pick 22 to the draft and Davey went in the top 15 then you could trade pick 23 (after Ashcroft bid) and a future 4th rounder for pick 31 and 44 from Fremantle. 44 looks like being pick 40 after Brisbane's Ashcroft bid. Your later picks will move up a ton of places before Munkara is bid on if he's bid on in the late 30's.

We are trying to find a way to take a 2nd player before a Davey bid, not pick up a pile of junk.

 

[Zach Package]

If you took pick 22 to the draft and Davey went in the top 15 then you could trade pick 23 (after Ashcroft bid) and a future 4th rounder for pick 31 and 44 from Fremantle. 44 looks like being pick 40 after Brisbane's Ashcroft bid. Your later picks will move up a ton of places before Munkara is bid on if he's bid on in the late 30's.

We don’t want the points or multiple picks, we either want a 2023 pick straight up or to consolidate up the order by trading multiple picks for a teens pick or a future first.

 

[Cup_o_Jobe]

But why are the Saints giving up their F1 to move up 5 spots?

A fair question (I would want more from the trade if I'm the Saints), but just echoing a trade that's been mentioned a few times here and elsewhere on BF, in the context of Saints intent to try and secure a top 5 pick.

 

[boncer34]

Been thinking more on the Mahoney "between 4 and 12 are really even" sentiment.

I'm warming to the idea of both trading with Saints to turn 4 into 9 + F1, and with Giants to turn 22 + F2 into 15, and we end up turning 4, 22, F1, F2 into 9, 15, F1, F1.

if our recruiting team genuinely sees little gap between say drafting Tsatas at 4 or a Humphrey/Phillipou/MacKenzie at 9, there is a lot to be said for improving our draft hand next year (and getting a second top 15 player ahead of ADJ this year) without sacrificing much in the way of quality on EFC's internal draft board.

You've lost me mate.

4 into 9 + F1
22 + F2 into 15

Where's the additional F1 in and out you mention come into it?

 

[Cup_o_Jobe]

You've lost me mate.

4 into 9 + F1
22 + F2 into 15

Where's the additional F1 in and out you mention come into it?

My post could have been clearer. The F1 isn't coming in or out, it's our F1: just emphasizing that in the above hypo, we can do these deals to improve our position this year, while retaining our F1 for next year.

 

[sherrif]

There is a 0% chance of that happening. There are 8 teams who do not have the ability to trade a F2. The 9 that can are Adelaide (x2), Carlton, Gold Coast (x2), Hawthorne (x2), Melbourne (x2), St. Kilda, Sydney, West Coast and Western Bulldogs. Of these teams, only West Coast would it be unfeasible with no picks between 26 and 78.

For that scenario to happen, it would take all 8 other clubs to be so bitter that they would outright refuse to deal with us. Two of which have already done so this off season pretty quickly.

It looks likely there will be a lot of academy and fatherson prospects requiring points for next years draft. Plus the pick 22 will likely be taken at pick 25 in the draft. If a bid for Davey comes around pick 14 I cant see any club trading a future 2nd and later pick even if they don't have a player they require points for as many clubs will be looking to gain 2nd rounders and other picks for the 2023 draft so those 2nd rounders have a ton of potential value and the teams with 2 second rounders will likely be able to turn those two picks into a first rounder to a team requiring points.

 

[TheGrizz]

But why are the Saints giving up their F1 to move up 5 spots?

Because the going price to move up from 14 to 12 last year was a F2 (WCE and Port)
The Liam Stocker trade was 4 for 10 with 19.

So St Kilda are moving into the top 5 of a draft with a 'big 5' top end. A top 20 is the asking price historically. If it happens it might be with a F3 or something going back to Saints.

 

[doug85]

Code sports phantom draft has us taking Tsatas

 

[Westlo]

lol if saints traded their f1 to us when they could be in the harley reid race with a few injuries.

that's a sackable offence for any club in risk of being bottom 4.

 

[faible]

lol if saints traded their f1 to us when they could be in the harley reid race with a few injuries.

that's a sackable offence for any club in risk of being bottom 4.

I can't envision a world where the Saints are bad enough to be worse than North, Hawthorn, West Coast or us.

 

[Bjchan13]

Because the going price to move up from 14 to 12 last year was a F2 (WCE and Port)
The Liam Stocker trade was 4 for 10 with 19.

So St Kilda are moving into the top 5 of a draft with a 'big 5' top end. A top 20 is the asking price historically. If it happens it might be with a F3 or something going back to Saints.

I could see them trying to move up with their F2. I think the F1 will be off limits as it could easily be another top 10 pick.

 

[TheGrizz]

I could see them trying to move up with their F2. I think the F1 will be off limits as it could easily be another top 10 pick.

Well if that's all they are willing to give up the then they have no chance. That's 2003-2009 Dodoro level of stingy.
No one is giving up a top 5 pick in a widely accepted '5-prospect' draft for a F2 at ~27 (their 2nd this year).

If they want the pick (I have no idea whether they actually do) they are going to have to cough up a F1 based on recent history of trade ups, but they could get something else coming back perhaps.

Look at it this way - WCE just traded 2 for 8 and 12.
Do you reckon pick 4 for 10 and 27 is market value?

 

[Dons4Life]

Think a lot of our trading decisions regarding potentially trading out our F2 and 22 to move up before a bid on Davey comes down to where we see ourselves in 12 months time regarding what we do with Parish.
Cant see it being an issue trying to keep our F2 in a "stronger" still to be debated draft, if we are prepared to let Parish walk and potentially getting a 1st round compo pick.
Would mean we are looking at:
2022 - Pick 4, pick 12-16, match Davey bid then maybe Munkara and Jayden Davey
2023 - 2 x more than likely pick 5-8
Thats 5 x top 20 picks in 2 years with 3 premium top 5-10picks

 

[Bjchan13]

lol if saints traded their f1 to us when they could be in the harley reid race with a few injuries.

that's a sackable offence for any club in risk of being bottom 4.

Their best 22 isn't actually looking too bad and they could finish anywhere from 6th to 12th im thinking. But agree, they would be mad to trade away their F1 with where the demographic of their list.

 

[Bjchan13]

Well if that's all they are willing to give up the then they have no chance. That's 2003-2009 Dodoro level of stingy.
No one is giving up a top 5 pick in a widely accepted '5-prospect' draft for a F2 at ~27 (their 2nd this year).

If they want the pick (I have no idea whether they actually do) they are going to have to cough up a F1 based on recent history of trade ups, but they could get something else coming back perhaps.

Look at it this way - WCE just traded 2 for 8 and 12.
Do you reckon pick 4 for 10 and 27 is market value?

No, im saying i think they will only offer up an F2 to try and move up maybe 1 or 2 spots if they can. I think their F1 would be off limits. I dont think they'll make a play for pick 4 or 5.

 

[MarkJohnson#1]

Their best 22 isn't actually looking too bad and they could finish anywhere from 6th to 12th im thinking. But agree, they would be mad to trade away their F1 with where the demographic of their list.

Would not surprise me if they finish bottom 4, they have a terrible list...