Recruiting AFL Draft Watch 2024 - What do we do, we don't have a top 10 pick?

[Bjchan13]

Do you seriously think no clubs would want pick 11/12 this year? If I'm the Dogs or Port I'm trading my F1 and points for that pick.

Like come on. Why wouldn't clubs do that?

Clubs would do this but is it even a win for us is the question. We might value our 1st and 2nd this year over Kako and next years pick 15.

 

[eth-dog]

You really know what clubs are thinking right now and what deals are going to be done ? Come on.
I was just saying that if push come to shove and we had to make a choice you do not match. That is the bloody point. No one can predict exactly what will happen. Deals may be getting done but that is not what I was talking about. I did not say do not match if we have traded out. I said my opinion was you do not match the bid if the picks we have are 9 and 30.
Maybe quote the whole bloody thing and not pick out one line!

Right. All 17 other clubs definitely won't want that pick or be prepared to trade their future first for it.

If we don't have a team lined up in case the bid comes before our pick I'd be absolutely gobsmacked.

Clubs would do this but is it even a win for us is the question. We might value our 1st and 2nd this year over Kako and next years pick 15.

Our second in this scenario is probably close to 35. I'd be shocked.

 

[ydc55]

Isaac is not in the top ten prospects in my opinion.
If a club bids before our first round pick you have three options.
Refuse to match, match bid and get the bidding club back or trade first round pick and use points from 2nd rounder, and or possibly stringer, laverde and shiel draft picks.
The only ridiculously early bid I can think of is braeden campbell which the swans had to match.
I think Isaac does end up at essendon.

 

[Bjchan13]

Right. All 17 other clubs definitely won't want that pick or be prepared to trade their future first for it.

If we don't have a team lined up in case the bid comes before our pick I'd be absolutely gobsmacked.

Our second in this scenario is probably close to 35. I'd be shocked.

All the talk is a deep and even draft with a lot of talent still available in the 30 to 50 range. It cant be ruled out we pass is all anyone is saying. Depends where we rate Kako in comparison to his bid. Id be surprised if he was bid on before us because i dont think he is genuinely the best pick for any of the teams in front of us. I think it'd be borderline for us at our first if he was not academy tied and we actually need a small forward more than anyone.

 

[jdstorm]

It was my info and the basis seemed to centre around

Pick 9 for pick 26 and our future first.

Which you could I suppose on trade post the Kako bid and come back in if you wanted?

Not saying it’s happening. Just that it’s going to be asked of you. Pointed out we will bid.

Yeah. Makes sense.

But also 26 which will be closer to 30 after various players get matched (and would be absorbed to match Kako) and a questionable first with no known established value is massive unders for that pick.

When it’s considered a strong draft and that pick 10/12 will virtually = pick 5 and in other years that or a similar pick gets you Isaac Rankine, Jordan Dawson, Adam Cerra, Adam Saad, Joe Daniher ect.

The real value of that pick is closer to 15 + F1 from a contender.

Just don’t think Saints have anything close to what we’d want for that pick.

Think Giants/Cats are the most likely teams to be interested/have enough to keep us interested

 

[stavro#4]

Yeah. Makes sense.

But also 26 which will be closer to 30 after various players get matched (and would be absorbed to match Kako) and a questionable first with no known established value is massive unders for that pick.

When it’s considered a strong draft and that pick 10/12 will virtually = pick 5 and in other years that or a similar pick gets you Isaac Rankine, Jordan Dawson, Adam Cerra, Adam Saad, Joe Daniher ect.

The real value of that pick is closer to 15 + F1 from a contender.

Just don’t think Saints have anything close to what we’d want for that pick.

Think Giants/Cats are the most likely teams to be interested/have enough to keep us interested

Neither of those trades work.

You need to come in post Kako bid.

Any firsts that just push your current back will get eaten by Kako.

Unless you believe your pick is swapped with the 2 giants picks and are happy if one is used to match Kako. But you would imagine that still requires a sweetener from you.

Acquiring a future first means you can flip it almost immediately if you have a deal for 11/12/13 etc.

It also saves you the equivalent of roughly a late third worth of points as we wouldn’t bid.

 

[Rick Ross]

This St Kilda bott farm spam is way too meta for me. One even calls himself “botts”.

Is there actually a law that they must say “we come in peace” (how original) before trying to stir up shit?

I come in peace (sort of). Apparently we are interested in your pick 9. We have been interviewing kako as well. What are your thoughts on trading up to make sure you get two first rounders?

Would be a swop of futures. Pick 8 for 9 and a future of some sorts. Maybe a second. Or a straight swop of 9 for a future first

SOS has history of bidding on players. Moving up to pick 8 might be your only option to get two picks in this draft. No one else will be willing to move out of the top ten.

Cal twomey is a massive bombers nuffy and he has banged on every episode of gettable that Essendon must trade up and get ahead of the kako bid.

Fair enough. Appreciate the discussion.

It was my info and the basis seemed to centre around

Pick 9 for pick 26 and our future first.

Which you could I suppose on trade post the Kako bid and come back in if you wanted?

Not saying it’s happening. Just that it’s going to be asked of you. Pointed out we will bid.

If you trade out of pick 9 this year into next and we bid on kako at 8. Would you have enough points to match?

 

[Bjchan13]

This St Kilda bott farm spam is way too meta for me. One even calls himself “botts”.

Is there actually a law that they must say “we come in peace” (how original) before trying to stir up shit?

They are just kindly letting us know that they care about us and that we should quickly hand over our first for whatever we can get because its in our best interests.

 

[botts]

This St Kilda bott farm spam is way too meta for me. One even calls himself “botts”.

Is there actually a law that they must say “we come in peace” (how original) before trying to stir up shit?

it’s an awkward last name. Now I know why no one takes me serious online.

 

[ant555]

Right. All 17 other clubs definitely won't want that pick or be prepared to trade their future first for it.

If we don't have a team lined up in case the bid comes before our pick I'd be absolutely gobsmacked.

Our second in this scenario is probably close to 35. I'd be shocked.

I do not care if you are gobsmacked. I made a simple comment about a scenario. You guys make comments about unlikely scenarios all the time. In fact you create them. People where asking about what happens if we have to match. I gave an opinion.

 

[Vindicater]

Potentially.

Trade for young established talent being the other option.

Or potentially both given the value of the pick

We can't trade for players on draft night.

 

[jdstorm]

We can't trade for players on draft night.

We can't trade for players on draft night.

We can’t but there’s still a whole trade week to go.

Just pre empt it if the right deal is available

 

[Red Black and Blue]

The only ridiculously early bid I can think of is braeden campbell which the swans had to match.

Campbell wasn't even a reach. Was best on ground by miles in that under 17 exhibition game on grand final day with the best of the under 17's class. Which was probably the last star representative game from that age bracket given covid.

I'd say the interest in Kako is the fact that Lohmann, Ah Chee, Cameron, Bobby Hill, Bailey, have probably been in the top 10 players in the last 2 grand finals. Throw in Moore and Watson rejuvenating Hawthorn.

 

[gillon]

Surprised Kako wasn’t already rated higher during the year. 18 and nearly two goals a game is a seriously good stat line. We’ve been ****ed a bit by the small forward dominance of 2024

 

[ydc55]

Campbell wasn't even a reach. Was best on ground by miles in that under 17 exhibition game on grand final day with the best of the under 17's class. Which was probably the last star representative game from that age bracket given covid.

I'd say the interest in Kako is the fact that Lohmann, Ah Chee, Cameron, Bobby Hill, Bailey, have probably been in the top 10 players in the last 2 grand finals. Throw in Moore and Watson rejuvenating Hawthorn.

I don’t agree with you.
I feel hawthorn felt they owed Sydney a receipt but you are right, much to our dismay it was a tough draft.
I would have thought Errol gulden went alright as a 17 year old interestingly enough

 

[Milanista28]

I think there's a world where the right player will be available at our pick 9 where we receive some really favourable deals.

If Kako is bid on early just means others will slide, we could receive 2 2nds (30s) and a F1st for this pick.

 

[Zach Package]

I would much rather the surety of knowing what we are going to get come draft night.

Trade it for a package of points this year and a first rounder next year, go in to draft night knowing you are getting Kako at a discount and that you have 2 first round picks next year to hit the draft with or aggressively attack the Harley Reid sweepstakes.

 

[Sporno 4 Pyros]

Yep….there will be 10+ sides calling us in the lead up to draft night wanting to make a deal with us should Kako get bid on early. Some of those offers will be pretty juicy (Gold Coast will have multiple picks next year to offer us after they get future firsts+thirds for Lukosious and P12).

 

[Yoda_]

Trading out of this years first round makes sense, especially with a likely early Kako bid. Only issue will be the point required to match. With our second and nothing until the arse end, makes our play a little more unlikely unless we have the balls to move on a Shiel, Laverde for peanuts (second or third).

 

[ant555]

Trading out of this years first round makes sense, especially with a likely early Kako bid. Only issue will be the point required to match. With our second and nothing until the arse end, makes our play a little more unlikely unless we have the balls to move on a Shiel, Laverde for peanuts (second or third).

Any deals would need a points aspect to it which could be a problem. How desperate will sides be to get in at around pick 10 ? At best I could see future first for sure but then it comes down to who it is. At a minimum you would be wanting a F1 - 3rd and 4th from this year or a F1 and a second from this year. I know I have been given some stick about just using our picks and letting him go because sides will want to deal but the deal still has to be pretty good for us to win. Of course another factor is if we can get a couple of third round picks from two of Shiel / Stringer / Laverde . We clearly have the balls to move them. It will be if others want them which in the case of Stringer it would appear not.

Another scenario could be some sort of deal with the Hawks for Finn Maginness that sees them get pick 9 and we get a F1 and their pick 30 from this year with maybe a F2 the other way if we are really keen on Maginness. It could be the best move as we get Kako and a young player in this year and have two first round picks next year.

The problem with all of this is we are in the hands of other clubs even though there are a few lining up for picks in the 5 to 15 range.

 

[Old Campaigner]

How is next years draft looking? Probably relevant if trading out of this years first round is being considered

 

[ant555]

How is next years draft looking? Probably relevant if trading out of this years first round is being considered

Given that a lot of clubs seem to be keen to get inside the top 15 this year I would suspect it may not have as much depth or outright class at the top end that they seem to think this year does but who knows. I have not seen enough of the bottom age crop to have a really informed opinion.

 

[ghostdog]

How is next years draft looking? Probably relevant if trading out of this years first round is being considered

This has been circling my mind too. So many people talking about trading instead for a F1, but no consideration of whether the quality of that draft matches or betters the quality of this one.

I recall having Pick 1 in recent times, which is no where near the quality of last year's Pick 1.

As well, Rosa himself has said this year we're looking to improve our draft hand and to bring in young players.

 

[doug85]

Cutting off your nose to spite your face though with this approach.

Ideally we get Kako + someone else and then someone else next year.
If someone bids on Kako and we stick to our picks, we end up with Kako and then someone else next year.
If we pre-empt that by trading out of the first round to the 2025 first round now, we get Kako + two someones next year.

There will be a few clubs that want out pick this year for next, I'd just trade with whoever gives us the best deal and get it over and done with.

Not exactly about spite (I will admit, there’s an element of that). If a club ahead of us bids on Kako, it’s likely a higher quality player slides through.

If a club bids ahead of us, and we REALLY want Kako then we probably have to trade into next years draft. But that’s a bit of a crapshoot. Who knows where that pick will be and the quality of that draft. I also think it’s a smart move for the club to put it out there that we’ll pick to our rankings. If other teams want Kako, they’d better be prepared to use a top 8 pick on him.

 

[Yoda_]

Isaac is not in the top ten prospects in my opinion.
If a club bids before our first round pick you have three options.
Refuse to match, match bid and get the bidding club back or trade first round pick and use points from 2nd rounder, and or possibly stringer, laverde and shiel draft picks.
The only ridiculously early bid I can think of is braeden campbell which the swans had to match.
I think Isaac does end up at essendon.

I agree, hes a very good small forward / midfielder. Some people are saying top 6. I very much doubt he goes inside 10. Only way that happens if a club is spiteful but lord Voldemort aint here anymore so Rosa should have a clean run at it.

In fact, history shows academy players nearly always slide (similarly to father / sons to be honest).

Id expect a bit in the mid to late teens