AFL epidemic! Over rating KF draft prospects.

[the distributer]

Fact is the 2 most promising (media driven) KFs in the country (Boyd and Hogan) have yet to play an AFL game, every year we hear "this KF" is one out of the box, will be the best thing since sliced bread, until he actually plays at the highest level and gets his ass handed to him, the media then move on to the next best prospect in the following draft, add water- shake well and repeat.

Question, when was the last time a superstar junior key forward lived up to the wraps?

AFL level football is a massive step up from TAC-VFL level, but it's an even bigger step up for key forwards IMO, hence why most fail to live up to the hype.

Watch any TAC-VFL game and you'll see KFs get a lot of one on ones-room to lead in the corridor, don't have to apply much forward pressure, the defensive structures are very poor compared to the AFL, look back over the last 15 drafts and count how many genuine KFs were worthy of the no1 pick.

Thoughts?

 

[Sidebottom2Beams]

If you'd seen Hogan play in the ressies there is no way you'd say it was media driven.
39 goals in 15 games and and won the bnf as a 17 year old

 

[Primetime Pricey]

Question, when was the last time a superstar junior key forward lived up to the wraps?

Watch any TAC-VFL game and you'll see KFs get a lot of one on ones-room to lead in the corridor, don't have to apply much forward pressure, the defensive structures are very poor compared to the AFL, look back over the last 15 drafts and count how many genuine KFs were worthy of the no1 pick.

Thoughts?

Nick Riewoldt? no fwd within the past 10 or so years had wraps as high as this bloke and i reckon he went alright.
If you have seen Boyd play he gets triple teamed and every now has 4 blokes contesting him... and still gets the ball to someone. He is a freak and oh by the way.... he can actually convert in front of goal.
The only way Boyd and Hogan fail is if they get injuries or just dont care or try.
I would have offered almost anything to land pick 1

 

[mattys123]

I actually believe draft picks (and therefore all top rated prospects) are over rated.

It's a general thing that happens in sports with drafts throughout the world, where a first round pick is so highly rated that usually you can't get one unless you are willing to trade a senior player of great talent for that pick.

The fact is Heath Shaw should be worth a first round pick, as should someone like Nick Dal Santo, they still both have 2-3 very good years left in them and we are talking about picks 15-20 here, not an absolute gun youngster.

Yet sport seems to favour "the dream", that is the prospect that your first round draft pick will be a 10 year, 200 game, All Australian premiership player. Well guess what? MOST ARE NOT.

Even in recent times where drafting has become more predictable many first round picks have been failures for various reasons.

Draft picks are over rated, especially early ones.

 

[NT.Thunder]

But what can you do? You can't foresee the future you can only really deal with what you see of draft picks now and over the development of their career and gut instinct.

Fact is these guys are graded on their playing ability now pretty much and potential they've shown over the junior years.

Recruiters are looking to fill a variety of roles for individual clubs and they understand that the KPP usually take longer to develop and to build size to match it with already physically developed KPP who have had several pre-seasons in the system.

The last thing a club would want to do is to throw a KF into AFL who's body hasnt fully developed and isnt strong enough as this could do more long term damage in a players confidence than good.

Very tough gig I think picking these guys, I mean when you look at A-grade KPP currently running around in the AFL there really isnt many.........a B-Grader is pretty standard and can fill a role but get a few A-Graders in these positions and happy days!

 

[THATSGOLD]

Fact is the 2 most promising (media driven) KFs in the country (Boyd and Hogan) have yet to play an AFL game, every year we hear "this KF" is one out of the box, will be the best thing since sliced bread, until he actually plays at the highest level and gets his ass handed to him, the media then move on to the next best prospect in the following draft, add water- shake well and repeat.

Question, when was the last time a superstar junior key forward lived up to the wraps?

AFL level football is a massive step up from TAC-VFL level, but it's an even bigger step up for key forwards IMO, hence why most fail to live up to the hype.

Watch any TAC-VFL game and you'll see KFs get a lot of one on ones-room to lead in the corridor, don't have to apply much forward pressure, the defensive structures are very poor compared to the AFL, look back over the last 15 drafts and count how many genuine KFs were worthy of the no1 pick.

Thoughts?

Poor call, both will be guns barring injury.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

I've noticed recently that media commentators are no longer content with the "you can pick up a ten-year player" cliché. The other day on SEN apparently an early pick was so prized because it could net you a "ten, twelve... thirteen year player!".

Wowee. Really.

 

[Ed D]

Off the top of my head I guess you can add Cloke, Roughead, Franklin, Kennedy, Hawkins and Cameron to the highly rated KPFs that have turned out well. Gumbleton and Patton both were injured but hyped up, with Patton still yet to prove himself.

I think that is however why they get hyped up, because so many KPFs don't turn out, so finding one that does is gold for recruiting.

 

[dansa]

J Cameron is going OK. He'd be worth more than the No1 draft pick now.

 

[look at him goooo!]

I think you may be looking at it wrong. Instead of asking yourself how many highly rated junior key forwards dont work out, ask yourself how many who are not top picks work out. The following are arguably the ONLY PROVEN AFL quality key forwards in the league drafted since 1999 in no order:

Franklin- pick 5
Roughead- pick 2
Cloke- (father son)
Pavlich- pick 4
N. Roo- pick 1
J. Roo- pick 13
Kennedy- pick 4
Brown- (father son)
Hawkins (father son)
Cameron- (pre-listed 17 year old)
Walker- (New South Wales scholarship pick)
Petrie- pick 23
Tippett- pick 32


Thats only 13 players in 14 years! With arguably only daniher (father son) , hurley (pick 5), patton (pick 1) and black (pick 25) having the potential to join them from the current pool of afl players.

It shows 2 things:

1. Good key position forwards are scarce, with only an average of about 1 player making it as an afl quality key forward from every draft.

2. Only 2 quality key forwards drafted in the last 13 years (petrie and tippett) have truly been taken outside the first round, with most of them being father sons or top 5 picks.

Key forwards, let alone good key forwards, are so bloody hard to find that when a promising one does come along you better take them because you have about a donkey's chance of getting them with anything other than a top 5 pick.

 

[sr36]

I think you may be looking at it wrong. Instead of asking yourself how many highly rated junior key forwards dont work out, ask yourself how many who are not top picks work out. The following are arguably the ONLY PROVEN AFL quality key forwards in the league drafted since 1999 in no order:

Franklin- pick 5
Roughead- pick 2
Cloke- (father son)
Pavlich- pick 4
N. Roo- pick 1
J. Roo- pick 13
Kennedy- pick 4
Brown- (father son)
Hawkins (father son)
Cameron- (pre-listed 17 year old)
Walker- (New South Wales scholarship pick)
Petrie- pick 23
Tippett- pick 32


Thats only 13 players in 14 years! With arguably only daniher (father son) , hurley (pick 5), patton (pick 1) and black (pick 25) having the potential to join them from the current pool of afl players.

It shows 2 things:

1. Good key position forwards are scarce, with only an average of about 1 player making it as an afl quality key forward from every draft.

2. Only 2 quality key forwards drafted in the last 13 years (petrie and tippett) have truly been taken outside the first round, with most of them being father sons or top 5 picks.

Key forwards, let alone good key forwards, are so bloody hard to find that when a promising one does come along you better take them because you have about a donkey's chance of getting them with anything other than a top 5 pick.

I agree with all of this, except I'd include Shultz is your list. KPF are bloody hard to come by. In terms of drafting, they are higher risk than mids, but if you don't pay the high price to pick them early, you're unlikely to get yourself a good one.

As a Pies supporter, thank god for the father son rule.

 

[Ketchup]

Obviously never seen Hogan play.

As for Boyd, I saw him tear our VFL team a new one in the pre match to the carlton richmond game in round 1. But ill hold comment on him until I see him play in a serious match. Anyone touted as the next jonathon brown should destroy other 17/18 year olds.

 

[KJpie]

Yeah the good ones are important big time.

I'd hate to think how our forward line would have functioned without a key marking target like Cloke in it this year.

That said I would do a Hawthorne (as with Buddy) and move Cloke to CHF where his long leads, strong marking and depth kicking could be used to advantage. Range wise he should be better suited, not have to take on multiple defenders and the goals could be shared around without our mid's and flankers going to him most of the time.

Stating the obvious a key forward who can convert more often than not under pressure is gold and a player we require.

 

[KJpie]

Draft picks are over rated, especially early ones.

Even more so when a club gets them wrong.

 

[Iskender Time]

I'll still be dreaming that we get pick one until the end of the trade period.

 

[Chilli Con Incarnate]

Great thread, there is way too much emphasis put on draft picks these days, and especially the next big forward. The reality is you will be waiting for that forward for about 2 to 3 years minimum before they can offer a whole lot at AFL level. Even ready made players like Boyd, Patton etc... Cameron being the exception of course but he will be better than all of these new generation KF's.

Drafting has improved no doubt, but people should be a little more cautious when they are calling for us to sell the farm for an untried talent.

If you'd seen Hogan play in the ressies there is no way you'd say it was media driven.
39 goals in 15 games and and won the bnf as a 17 year old

Yet Paine kicks 45 as a second year player and can't get a game? Given how rare KF's are, (yes I know Paine's height and size is questionable for some but he still only has to play next to Cloke) why are we letting this kid waste away in the VFL? Especially when you consider we needed another target up forward about 4 weeks in.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Travis lived up to the hype.

They said Trav would have been the number 1 pick if we didn't FS him.

 

[TradeDraft]

Because KP are Harder to Find a Good on then Finding a Good Mid

 

[Gone Critical]

No pick is guaranteed but few good KPF come from outside the 1st round. A few years ago I thought Carlton was on a hiding to nothing picking a raft of big KPF as later picks. Thats the one that rarely works. Watson, McCarthy, Mitchell and Casboult. KPFs are the hardest to find, picking them from the 1st round of the draft gives a much bigger chance of success

 

[didaksrightfoot]

There is much less risk in taking a mid in the draft, and plenty of B-grade midfielders will go on to have a decent career.

But, there are just so few good key forwards around, that the upside of getting the next one is huge... and I would argue that the "value added" of an A-grade KPF is much higher than an A-grade mid. (ie. you take Pendlebury or Swan out of our team, and we wont be thaaat much worse... take out Cloke, and we would be clearly out of the 8)

(the same phenomena applies to the NBA with drafting centres)