AFL preseason betting

[Oraaaaazio]

According to your criteria if the odds are $1.49 and you assess they should be $1.01, you wouldn't touch the game from a betting perspective?

I think you know the answer to that

 

[Lensen]

According to your criteria if the odds are $1.49 and you assess they should be $1.01, you wouldn't touch the game from a betting perspective?

Who said I wouldn't?
I said I struggle backing sub $1.50 shots - but if it's a ridiculous overlay like $1.49 vs $1.01 then yes I'd back it
But where I might bet marginal value at $1.60 I'd probably leave it alone at $1.40

 

[nooblet]

why are people getting so caught up by what the particular odds are?

if you think $1.10 represents a 5% edge it's no different in expectation to finding $2 with a 5% edge.

 

[Keystone agony]

why are people getting so caught up by what the particular odds are?

if you think $1.10 represents a 5% edge it's no different in expectation to finding $2 with a 5% edge.

Couldnt agree more, value is value

 

[Keystone agony]

Wish i got on Stkilda now @1.89 before teams were announced. I was still pretty happy once teams were announced however Brisbane since lost Christensen and now Robinson to that half forward/midfield group already missing Beams. Saints @1.63 probably is too short for me playing away now and would be guaranteed a loss if i got on now.

 

[happy punter]

GWS to beat Swans @ 2.05

 

[ricardogp]

Missed the >$3 value on H2H, so:

0.5u GWS 1-39 @ $2.80

 

[Keystone agony]

On GWS at 3.30 and on eagles 1.08 when i could

+4.76 Units now great start to the weekends

2/2 strike rate

 

[Zealbee]

Wish i got on Stkilda now @1.89 before teams were announced. I was still pretty happy once teams were announced however Brisbane since lost Christensen and now Robinson to that half forward/midfield group already missing Beams. Saints @1.63 probably is too short for me playing away now and would be guaranteed a loss if i got on now.

I think the Lions are overs. I don't rate the St Kilda list and the conditions will really suit Brisbane. Not going to bet on it though, have gone cold with my NAB Challenge betting.

 

[Zealbee]

Also anyone got any idea why the North Melbourne Collingwood total is only 129.5? Is it raining today or something?

 

[Gift]

Also anyone got any idea why the North Melbourne Collingwood total is only 129.5? Is it raining today or something?

Shortened game time due to the heat

 

[X_box_X]

Shortened game time due to the heat

How much shorter?

Collingwood and North have both played in high scoring games so far.

 

[Gift]

Hard to say because it depends on if its a free flowing game or one with a lot of ball ups/throw ins.

Current NAB rules for quarters are first 15 mins with no time on/off, then last 5 mins with time on/off. In NAB Round 3 matches its back to the normal 20 mins with time on/off.

With the heat rule its 22 mins with no time on/off.

Id probably still lean towards the overs but over/under scores isnt my specialty.

 

[Keystone agony]

Also anyone got any idea why the North Melbourne Collingwood total is only 129.5? Is it raining today or something?

Shortned quarters for heat. Albeit its only dropped to 22 min qtrs incl time on i believe which it was 24 before. So hardly drastic. Both have scoring weapons and plenty of guys who can hit the scoreboard.

I just get worried they shorten them even more with games like this or there a gents agreement between the 2 coaches/teams for the last qtr or something

 

[Keystone agony]

I think the Lions are overs. I don't rate the St Kilda list and the conditions will really suit Brisbane. Not going to bet on it though, have gone cold with my NAB Challenge betting.

They're overs slightly at 2.25 but not at the 1.89 i got. Still think they can win i think Saints will finish bottom 4-5 this year again.

I made my money going early on GWS though.

 

[Keystone agony]

I worked out for Pies/North it would be like a general game for them with the line at 140.5

Is equivalent to the 129 they have now. Just gives you some perception.

 

[happy punter]

Kangas over Pies @ 2.00

 

[Keystone agony]

Kangas over Pies @ 2.00

Why?

 

[Robo87]

20 min last quarter just announced for geel v Ess - due to heat

 

[Keystone agony]

4/5 +6.25 UNITS from 4 games.

Just missed some $20+ long shots FGS Been kicking 3rd and 4th and plenty goals

 

[Keystone agony]

Also anyone got any idea why the North Melbourne Collingwood total is only 129.5? Is it raining today or something?

Who's doing the match lines?

 

[Zealbee]

Who's doing the match lines?

Bet365

 

[X_box_X]

I'm glad I got on Melbourne at $2.05, $1.95, $1.77 and $1.74. Should be able to guarantee a $300 return either way.

 

[Keystone agony]

Bet365

Cheers i was looking for a brisbane vs saints one but it mustve all been taken down due to impending weather

 

[Infra Ted]

Ive added 2U on Melbourne @2. Overs for me. The dogs have plenty out and probably likely to leave more out and probably only give a guy like M.Boyd 50-60% TOG.

Melbourne still have listed quite a strong side im not sure why they are under dogs personally and isnt the game at casey?

Over reaction to one player for Melbourne being out where the dogs have half of their best 22 playing and thats before they take 3-7 out.

Wish I saw this earlier. Down to $1.37 now.

Good find.