SJ
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AFL Premiership Round 19
Geelong V Collingwood
Geelong V Collingwood
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Ladder:
Season Win/Loss
The Collingwood perspective:
Geelong hosts the Collingwood Magpies this Saturday night at the MCG in a top of the table battle which is likely to decide the minor premier for season 2010. In the last 2 months, Collingwood has rightfully stamped itself as a true contender for the flag this year, whilst Geelong has shown me very little to suggest their era of dominance is about to end.
Geelong has been here before. Typically, the result of a clash like this is reversed in the finals. Port Adelaide beat Geelong last in 2007, only to be smashed in the Grand Final. Geelong beat Hawthorn in 2008 but was overrun when it counted. St.Kilda beat Geelong in a thriller in 2009, but the result was reversed in the Grand Final. So the Cats know not to put too much emphasis on these sorts of matches as it is a different ball game in September.
The media will build this up as a ‘Blockbuster’ and a potential Grand Final Preview, but the ultimate reality is that this game is no more than a dress rehearsal before finals, with very little actually at stake. Both sides are likely to continue to rest key players, and neither team will reveal their full hand.
Nonetheless, the Magpies would look to this Saturday night as an opportunity to gain the psychological edge. Having beaten St.Kilda, Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs, the only scalp left unclaimed is Geelong. It would be a huge confidence booster to the Magpies if they could feel that as a team they can beat anyone. However, a loss by no means rules out Collingwood as a premiership contender.
When I look at the improvement in Collingwood in season 2010 and the way the list has developed, it reminds me a lot of Geelong in 2007. In many regards, the Magpies have followed the Geelong model. The Magpies have now developed a list of about 30 players whom have all played together for a number of years and are all hitting the peak of their abilities at the same time. Both sides also rely heavily on an even contribution of goal-scorers as opposed to having 2 tall forwards who kick the bulk of the goals. Both sides have good rebounding defenders and generate a lot of run from the backline. The Geelong side also played off in a number of finals series before finally breaking through. Importantly, neither side has relied heavily on top 5 picks to re-build. It has been a combination of clever drafting, smart recruiting and allowing the list to play together for 5 years to learn how each other plays.
Geelong has an ominous feel about them right now. It is about this time when the Cats begin to rest players. This process has already started, with Bartel and Podsiadly rested from last week’s game. Others are likely to be rested this week. The Cats also have an amazing ability to sneak under the radar. They allow other teams to emerge as contenders, whilst they quietly accumulate their wins, operating in about 3rd gear. They get their list really fit before finals, then hit peak form.
All the same signs are there this year. Collingwood may be getting the attention at the moment, but the Cats are well and truly still the premiership favourites. If it were tennis, Geelong would be the number 1 ranked competitor. Nonetheless, I feel comfortable in saying that as it stands, Collingwood is presenting the greatest threat.
Regardless of all the downplay, it is hard not to get excited about this Saturday night. On the surface, it is a clash between the 2 in-form sides in the competition. The midfield battles are mouth-watering, and the reward for the winner is top spot on the AFL ladder. Therefore, a game such as this deserves the mother of all previews, and that is what I aim to deliver this week. I hope you have a bit of time up your sleeves.
RECENT HISTORY:
Since that much talked about match in Round 9 2008 where the Magpies smashed the Cats, Geelong has beaten the Magpies the last 3 times. They have done so in quite comfortable fashion as well. Perhaps the most significant of these wins was the preliminary final victory last year where the Cats won by 73 points. The match really highlighted the deficiencies in the Magpies list, and was the catalyst of a post-season review which saw the Magpies attack the trade and draft period with a lot of vigour.
The last battle between Collingwood and Geelong was in Round 9 this year, where the Cats again were convincing 36 point winners in a low scoring affair. In some regards, a 36 point victory was a bit flattering to Geelong as Collingwood had a number of opportunities (particularly early) to really put scoreboard pressure on Geelong. However it was inaccurate kicking which cost the Magpies, finishing up on 6.14.50.
On the other hand, the game exposed what at the time many considered to be Collingwood’s greatest weakness...and that is standing up in big games. Yet again players like Davis, Didak and Cloke were quiet (not a goal was kicked between them). Geelong was also very inaccurate, so in some regards the margin could have been more. Dayne Beams was Collingwood’s greatest contributor with 4 goals, but it could’ve easily been 6 or 7. Collingwood’s much hyped spread of goal-kickers did not have any bearing on the game. Only 3 players kicked goals on the night.
It also exposed Collingwood’s lack of ability to shut down front-line opposition players. Ablett, Kelly, Bartel and Chapman were all up around the 30 possession mark, whilst Mooney and Stokes kicked 3 goals each. Enright was also very good across half back with 27 disposals and 12 marks, doing as he pleased on Didak.
For all this, I think Collingwood has improved significantly in the last 10 rounds. The Magpies will take some solace from the fact that there were periods during the Round 9 game where they had opportunities. They also held Geelong to 12 goals, which would be about the target this round. The win against St.Kilda should give the Magpies a lot of self-belief that they can step up in big games.
AT THE SELECTION TABLE:
Selection on Thursday night will be fascinating. Both sides have extremely solid lists at the moment with a number of players demanding selection. Both sides also have star players who should return, yet finding a spot is very hard. There is no doubt that neither side will risk any players who pulled up sore. It is all about player management right now.
Geelong will have to make room for Bartel and Podsiadly, both whom look set to return from their rest last week. The big question for Geelong is how to get the balance right. With Hawkins, Mooney, Ottens and either West or Blake, adding Podsiadly makes the side far too top heavy in my opinion. Especially considering the Cats are more reliant on smalls than talls.
West was OK last week, but his spot looks most vulnerable. Blake will probably need to prove himself over a number of weeks at VFL level. The most likely scenario is that Podsiadly will return for Trent West, and Hawkins will play as backup ruck to Ottens. The Cats are very confident about Ottens’ ability to ruck. Steve Johnson in a post match interview said Ottens was one of the best tap ruckmen going around besides Sandilands. However, Ottens is still very much on the comeback trail after an injury riddled year, and Hawkins also has hot-spots in his feet which will have to be monitored. So it could be considered risky to use both in the ruck so close to finals. They may be nursed.
Further, a number of players played with niggling injuries in last week’s game against Sydney. Cameron Ling was taken to the rooms in the 2nd quarter, Paul Chapman played on despite the fact he was hobbling in the 2nd quarter, Matthew Stokes seemed to hurt his calf, Josh Hunt seemed to hurt his ankle and hobbled off, and Joel Corey is still definitely experiencing lingering effects from his injuries and seemed really concerned during the half time break. A number of these players may be rested this week to ensure they do not get any worse.
For Collingwood, finding spots for Heath Shaw and Simon Prestigiacomo present the difficulty for Malthouse. Presti may be given another week. Firstly because there is no need to risk him at the moment at his age, and secondly because it gives Nathan Brown another chance to gain senior experience against quality opposition.
Heath Shaw should return. I dare say he could’ve played last week but the Magpies elected to be very cautious.
Sharrod Wellingham is the only real injury concern for Collingwood right now, but scans have revealed there is no structural damage to his knee. He’ll face a fitness test ahead of Saturday’s game, but I would not be surprised if he is rested to make way for Heath Shaw.
Medhurst and Fraser were both very good in the VFL on the weekend, although both were inaccurate in front of goals. Medhurst kicked 3 final quarter behinds. However both have some form and will get a chance in the run home as Malthouse rests up the stars. This could be the week to get Medhurst in because I believe he needs to prove himself against the best opponent to earn his spot.
I also think Leigh Brown should be rested before finals. Not this week, but sometime soon. Brown has been slightly quiet over the last 2 weeks, and tends to come back from a week off very hungry. So a freshen up before finals could be the right thing to do.
Jarryd Blair’s spot is the one that seems most up for grabs. He has been fantastic and very efficient with his ball use, but he isn’t getting it enough to cement his spot. However I have been very impressed with his composure and balance at AFL level. I would like to see him get the big game experience against Geelong this week. His spot for finals will probably be up for grabs.
Tarkyn Lockyer will continue to put his name in the selection radar as well.
What, if any, are Geelong’s weaknesses?
I watch Geelong play every week, and I must say there are no real ‘weaknesses’ in their side.
Their defence is still one of the best in the comp, and if anything has been strengthened this year by the improvement of Lonergan and the continual development of Taylor. Enright and Milburn are still playing good footy and Scarlett is still the best full back in the game. Mackie also sneaks under the radar, along with Wojcinski who is lightning quick.
The midfield is the most solid in the comp. It doesn’t possess the most pace, but has so much depth. It is perhaps the only midfield in the competition with more depth than Collingwood’s. If anything, it has improvement in it for finals as Bartel and Ablett have been only playing 50% through the middle, and Joel Corey is not 100% fit. Joel Selwood has had an awesome month, and guys like Chapman and Johnson find it very easy to go into the middle for periods to cover for others.
The forward line is so dangerous as well. Steve Johnson stepped up last week with 6 goals. Guys like Stokes and Byrnes would be walk up starts at any other team, yet at Geelong they are probably the 21st and 22nd players picked. Both are consistent goal-scorers. Then add Podsiadly into the side. I think he’ll have a big say in September. Mooney is getting on, but has 1 more big finals series left in him.
Having said all this, Geelong is not invincible. There are methods to beat them, but they require a lot of things to go right for them to work.
The Carlton / Freo / Adelaide Model.
These 3 sides have beaten Geelong in 2010. They have done so by taking the game on. The thing about Geelong is that they will always back themselves in to beat you. They are not like St.Kilda who throw numbers back if momentum is swinging against them. If the Cats are under the pump, they simply keep playing their game-plan as they have the ultimate confidence that they can win every head to head match-up.
This typically works for Geelong. If sides are opening up the game, then it allows their stars to find space. However, if the Geelong midfield is 5% down on the day, or if their opponent is on fire, then there is the opportunity to kick goals on them. Their midfielders are disciplined, but are attackingly minded, so they give their opponents the chance to win plenty of the ball.
For this to work, you have to play a blinder of a match, your skills have to be switched on and you have to capitalise opportunities. Going head-to-head against Geelong is a huge risk because realistically their players are always going to be better. However, on your day this does present an opportunity.
The St.Kilda / Hawthorn Model.
Hawthorn has really displayed the other way to beat the Cats, and I think St.Kilda also used this model in their victory against Geelong this year.
The Cats take the game on. This involves a lot of risk. They have no fear across half back. They utilise the handball and the 15 metre precision kick. At times you hold your breath because there is a lot of danger in what they do. However, they are so skilled and aware of how each other plays that they get through the trouble and then launch attacks.
Nonetheless, if the forward pressure is good enough, you can force Geelong into errors. Collingwood very much did this in 2008 when they had their big victory. Despite the high skill level of Geelong, there is no denying they over-possess the football at times. An unrelenting pressure on the ball-carrier can force turnovers.
Hawthorn does this very well against Geelong, and seems to make them jittery at times. That said, the Cats have won every encounter against Hawthorn since the 08 Grand Final.
Collingwood is likely to employ this strategy. However it doesn’t come without risks. The Magpies will employ a forward zone, pretty much putting every player into the forward half of the ground and looking to lock the ball inside 50. If this works, the Cats may be forced into turnovers. If the Cats are good enough to work through the zone, then they will kick a lot of goals because the forward half will be open with a lot of one on ones. Geelong is the best side in the competition at running through zones. However it is Collingwood’s intensity which is unrivalled at the moment, so they will have to be switched on this Saturday night.
MATCH-UPS
Geelong Forward Line:
Podsiadly v Presti/N.Brown– Podsiadly is likely to return and should benefit from the weeks break. Much has been said about Podsiadly’s record at Skilled Stadium in comparison to other grounds. However I think this is overstated as the Cats often play lesser opponents at Skilled Stadium. He is the genuine goal-scoring tall which Geelong has perhaps lacked in recent years, and he definitely adds another dimension to the Cats forward line. He’ll be looking to return to his best form before finals.
Mooney v Reid – Reid’s 2010 should earn him the Rising Star Award. He has been so good at Centre Half Back and is rarely beaten in a one on one marking contest due to his great strength. He also continues to pick up plenty of the ball and utilises his left boot to great effect. Mooney was very good last week against Sydney, kicking 3 goals. He also kicked 3 goals back in Round 9.
S.Johnson v Harry O’Brien – Johnson is coming off a 6 goal game and looks set for a big September after he was limited during the 09 finals series. Harry is also having a career best year, and in my mind should be up for All Australian honours. The Collingwood defence will have to be very versatile because Johnson will spend time in the middle, perhaps rotating with Ablett. When Ablett is up forward, I think Harry should take this match-up instead because Ablett has kicked 8 goals in 2 weeks, spending probably 50% of his time in the forward line. When Harry switches to Ablett, then Toovey may go to Johnson.
Hawkins v Goldsack – Again, Goldsack is going to have to be versatile. I think his first mission will be to guard Hawkins up forward, but I can also see him spending time on Steve Johnson and Shannon Byrnes as the Cats forward line rotates players. Hawkins is still battling with foot issues, and will be used in the ruck at times as well. Goldsack could be Malthouse’s Mr.Fix It on Saturday night and asked to rotate between a number of players.
Stokes v Toovey – Stokes has a history of playing well against Collingwood in big games. Toovey is in good form at the moment but has a very tough task ahead of him. Stokes may be battling with a calf injury, so if he is rested then Toovey is likely to go onto Byrnes or even Steve Johnson if Ablett is also forward.
Chapman v Shaw – Chapman is going to spend a lot of time in the midfield, and I think Shaw will as well. In terms of body size, Shaw is a good match-up. The match-up should also work when Chappy goes forward. I don’t care what anyone says, Chapman is the most damaging player in the AFL. I would put him ahead of Ablett, that’s how highly I rate him. Macaffer got the job in Round 9 and was not humiliated, but Chapman eventually picked up 30 disposals and ate him up. Chapman did look proppy last week and could be another in line to be rested.
Player of Interest: Travis Varcoe
This guy deserves a mention for his vast improvement in 2010. His defensive pressure is fantastic, and he is a consistent goal-scorer. Many wrote him off at the end of 2008, but he has really taken his game to a new level since. He will continually slip under opposition radars whilst guys like Ablett and Steve Johnson are running around the forward line, but he has been very effective all year.
Midfield:
Ablett v Ben Johnson – Ablett is not going to spend all his time in the middle. In fact, he will spend as much time up forward. His form did drop off a little bit between Rounds 14-16, but he has bounced back in the last 2 rounds with 8 goals. He has also been the direct goal-assist on a number of occasions as well. Gazza has a terrific record against Collingwood, and will no doubt play well again. I think Ben Johnson should do as tight a tagging role as possible when he is in the middle. Jonno has done some respectable tagging jobs over the last month so should get this job. Other candidates could be Wellingham (although I think he’ll miss) or even young Blair to be thrown the challenge.
Pendlebury v Ling – Ling is another under a small injury cloud, but I would expect him to play. In Round 9, Ling moved onto Pendlebury with effect. Ling is not a good match-up for Swan as Dane is too quick for him and rotates too heavily. However, Ling is perfectly built to play on a guy like Pendlebury who isn’t overly quick. He restricted him to 18 disposals in Round 9.
Luke Ball v Joel Selwood – Selwood reminds me so much of a young Luke Ball. These 2 will square off in the clearance battles on Saturday night and it should be enthralling to watch. There are very few players that could claim they go head first for the pill like Luke Ball or Joel Selwood. They are absolute clearance machines. I also think both were best on ground in Round 18 so both enter the game in great form.
Swan v Kelly – Dane Swan is the form player in the competition right now and is where my money is for the Brownlow medal. He leads all major awards including the coaches award which is testament to his consistency all year. Carrazzo tried to tight tag Swan last week, but Dane had nothing of it. He ended up 31 disposals. I doubt Geelong are going to place a tight tag on him, but may use someone like Kelly head to head or even Bartel. It’s going to be an unreal spectacle to see Ablett and Swan in peak form playing against each other. Kelly is another who sneaks under the radar. He is a coaches favourite and is having a terrific season.
Bartel v Didak – Didak is going to start in the middle, and may even get the Ling tag potentially. However, I think to start we’ll see Bartel go head to head against him. Last time around, Enright played on Didak who stayed predominantly forward. Didak is a lot fitter at the moment and has been playing much more on the ball, whilst still pushing forward to score goals. Bartel is returning from injury, and is another who will push forward a lot. Realistically, we will not see these 2 spending much time on each other, but then again there will be very few tight tags placed through the middle.
Player Note: Dale Thomas
Daisy is one of the most improved players in the competition, but most importantly he is a big game player. He probably needs to kick more goals to become a genuine A grader, but he will be a thorn in Geelong’s side this Saturday night. The key for Thomas is his ability to take the game on and utilise his pace to launch attacks. His defensive pressure is also unbelievable and he his courage is undeniable. Could be the X factor for Collingwood on Saturday night.
Collingwood Forward Line:
Dawes v Lonergan – Dawes has been plugging away but isn’t in terrific form. With Cloke back in the side, I am expecting his output to increase. As I said earlier, Lonergan has been a real revelation for the Cats down back this year, and I expect him to get the main job on Dawes this week. This will allow the Cats to use Scarlett on a lesser opponent. Scarlett is much more attacking with the ball. If this is the case, and Dawes gets Lonergan instead of Scarlett, you would expect him to use his strength and kick a few goals. If Dawes gets Scarlett, then he has to be very mindful of how dangerous Scarlett can be with the ball.
Cloke v Taylor – Cloke was very good last week against Carlton, but very wasteful. Nonetheless, he finished the game with 2 goals and hopefully found his range in front of goal. You would hope that he has put a big week in at training with his goal-kicking. Harry Taylor deserves a big wrap. He is such a courageous player and always takes the good opponents. He is also a great contested mark. Cloke needs a big one.
Leigh Brown v Scarlett – I expect Scarlett to perhaps get this match-up, although I could be wrong and Lonergan will take it instead, with Scarlett starting on Dawes. Either way, the Cats would be feeling very confident about their ability to shut down the Collingwood talls. The key for the Magpies is to split the defenders and try and get one on ones.
Davis v Hunt – Leon is back! He kicked 3 last week against Carlton and looks to be running into hot form before finals. That said, this is a big game, and this is when he has to start performing. He’ll likely get an opponent like Josh Hunt. Hunt is an important player for Geelong as he’ll take the kick-ins and look to pin-point a team-mate through the Collingwood zone. If Davis gets Hunt, he’ll have to ensure his defensive pressure is very high because Hunt can be devastating with the ball in hand.
Enright v Macaffer – The trend over the last month from opposition teams has been to tag Enright. I think Macaffer should do this job as a forward tag on him. Macaffer is in good nick and he is holding his spot in the side because he can do any job Malthouse asks of him. This week, I think he should sit on Enright and try to make himself dangerous on him. Enright is such an underrated player and is so crucial to the Geelong game-plan.
Sidebottom v Mackie – Mackie was fantastic against Sydney last week, and ran off Rhyce Shaw with ease. Someone like Sidebottom should look to make Mackie very accountable. Steele’s goal-sense may worry Mackie and force him to play a bit more defensively.
Player Note: Dayne Beams
Beams was Collingwood’s shining light in Round 9 with 4 goals, and seemed as if he would be the only player to keep the Magpies in the game. He’ll start through the middle but look to play forward of the centre in order to kick a few goals. He was named best on ground last week by the commentators, although I think Luke Ball was the real best on ground. He consistently kicks a number of goals and he wins a lot of the ball. He might get Milburn for company.
The Ruck:
The ruck could be a real point of difference on Saturday night. In the past, Brad Ottens has really enjoyed playing against Collingwood, and in Round 9 I thought Mark Blake was very good. However Mark Blake is unlikely to play as he is trying to regain his form in the VFL, whilst Ottens and Hawkins are trying to still regain their peak match fitness.
On the other hand, Jolly and Leigh Brown are proving a workable combination. Jolly is finally recapturing the sort of form he displayed during his playing days at Sydney. He is pushing forward with real conviction and is having a real say from stoppages. Collingwood was dominant around stoppages against Carlton, scoring so many goals directly from contested situations. Jolly has a large say in this area. Leigh Brown is undersized, but he hits in very hard and only has to compete in very few contests.
It is going to be fascinating to see Jolly go up against Ottens. Both are going to look to push forward and kick goals.
THE WRAP UP:
At the end of the day, for all I’ve said, it could all come down to accuracy. Geelong is still the best side going around, and to beat them Collingwood will have to make the most of all their opportunities. Travis Cloke needs to find his range, and Collingwood needs to find a large array of goal-kickers. The result could come down to whichever side is more accurate in front of goal.
The mind games are going to be interesting. It seems very likely these sides will meet again In September, so gaining some sort of edge now is the real motivator for Saturday night’s game.
I’ll be there sitting in Q19 in the South Stand, right on the wing. It’s going to be cold, but the weather forecast is not predicting any rain, so we should see a quality contest. It is probably going to be quite tight, as Collingwood will look to bottle the game up.
It’s hard to tip a winner without looking at the final selections. If the Cats omit Chapman, Ling and co, then Collingwood should win. However, I can only tip based on the premise that both sides are going to go in full strength, and therefore I have to go with Geelong who must still be considered premiership favourite.
Geelong by 12
ODDS:
Geelong $1.79
Collingwood $2.04
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
AFL Round 19 Geelong V Collingwood
