AFL Season 2008 - Round 1: Head2Head; Mervyn (Hawthorn) vs Bartram_Class (Melbourne)

[Philhawk]

Well after the success we had doing this during the Pre-Season, we thought we'd try it again during the regular season.

This week, two of the best posters from both the Hawthorn Board and the Melbourne Board in Bartram Class and Mervyn Beasley have written up the previews for us.

They're certainly some of the best we've had to date!

The quality of these posts never cease to amaze me!

Enjoy - and please join me in thanking MB and BC!

 

[Philhawk]

Hawthorn Perspective - Mervyn Beasley

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Head2Head.
Hawthorn Vs. Melbourne.

OVERVIEW

As has often been the case in recent years, the Hawks begin their '08 season against the Dees. Given the '07 ladder positions of the respective clubs and the Dees' poor pre-season form, you would expect the bookies to have the Hawks as clear favourites.

With 7 players missing (Crawf, Hodge, Lewis, Brown - all suspended - Dixon, Vander, Smith - retired) from our last 'real' game, some Hawk fans might not be so confident.

The Dees, on the other hand, will be looking to exploit the absence of such quality players and make an unexpectedly bright start to a season few think will bring them much joy.

WHAT TO LOOK FOR

Which 7 players will come into the team?

Williams is an obvious choice to replace Dicko.

Ellis is a definite - 13 games last year, a good NAB Cup, ready to go.

Expect Benny McG to come into the side after a good showing for B.Hill on the weekend.

Rioli's and Tuck's form has been irresistible in the pre-season, so pen their names in (hopefully).
It seems that Mitch has already nominated Dew, and given our lack of experience this would seem to be a wise choice.

Brown's absence might see Murphy secure a spot on the back flank.

Battling it out with Murphy for the remaining spot in the team will be Kennedy, Stokes, Dowler, Dawson and Morton, and of course Timmy Clarke (the most likely).

How I wish I was able to mention Muston as a likely debut!!!

How our fwd's set up?
Will it be loaded with Willo, Buddy, Roughy, Boyle and Rioli?
I feel the 6th starting fwd could be a surprise choice (Nb. 'The Cougar' played fwd for B.Hill on Sat!!!), but probably Osborne, or maybe even Dew.

I'd like to see Dowler rotate off the bench with Roughy, Williams and Boyle (only due to Roughy and Williams being a bit underdone).
Some have even suggested Dowler might be picked ahead of Boyle.
Personally, I would prefer to see Ossie hassling the hell out of Davey.

Will Clarko trust our depleted line-up and opt for an all-out attack, or will he play things more cautiously?
I would hope he starts with an attacking mindset, then adjust if/as required.

How will our midfield stand up without Hodge, Lewis and Crawf?
I would expect we will start with Mitch, Sewell and Benny McG.

The suspended players will be sorely missed. However, despite the inexperience (and less muscle), the support cast is not too bad. We have Tuck, Ellis, Bateman and Young, or maybe even Rioli, Stokes or Kennedy will get a taste.

Clarke could be a support. However, I would prefer him out on the wing doing his link-up thing.

Birchall is another player that could be used in the guts, particularly at centre bounces, due to his size.

The missing players might have created a great opportunity for Xavier to put a stamp on the game, especially given that his first real pre-season should enable him to be on the park for longer than he could handle last season.

Whatever the case, I feel the game will be won or lost in the midfield.
Look for our youngsters to be busting their gut's as they fight it out for the remaining spots in the side after our 'naughty 4' gradually return.

The mirror image in game style of Davey at one end, and Rioli at the other.
Watch for Cyril to be bumped, scragged, and jumper-punched before the first bounce in an attempt to unsettle both he and Buddy, who will undoubtedly be first in to fly the flag (and give away a free kick!!)
Here's hoping for a Rnd 1 Rising Star nomination for our Cyril. I'm excited!

Has either coach been foxing in the pre-season?

Are the Dees as bad as their pre-season form suggests?

Are the Hawks about to take the next step, or are we as patchy as our pre-season form suggests?

Will we get a glimpse of whether the Hawks believe their own publicity (a personal concern of mine), or will we see a fierce, determined 'one-game-at-a-time' attitude?

Will the Dees rue the decision to leave out Sylvia?
(Dees fans, note a similar punishment for Hodgey after he celebrated his 21st and missed a recovery session, has not caused any harm.)

The Fagan factor

After 10 years in the opposition's coaching box, Chris Fagan is our off-field 'X-factor' against the Dees.

KEY MATCH-UPS

Croad Vs. Neitz.
Mitchell Vs. McLean.
Murphy/Gilham Vs. Robbo.
Buddy Vs. ???????
Ellis/Osborne Vs. Davey.
Sewell Vs Bruce.

DEBUTS

Rioli, Dew (club debut), Stokes? Morton? Kennedy? (Extraordinary how much Kennedy reminds you of his old man, particularly the way he moves.)

EXPECTATION

With almost all of the 'experts' putting the Hawks in the top 4 and the Demons in the bottom 4, I expect the Dees to be extremely desperate to start their 150th year in style and shut the critics up.

IN SUMMARY

Despite the quality and depth reduction in the midfield, I feel that the Hawk forward line will be too classy (provided the delivery is of an acceptable standard), and that the Hawks will bring home the Cadbury CrËme filled Eggs with a 3-6 goal win.

Given the absence of aforementioned players over the next 3 weeks, and a trip to the West in that time, I feel this is an absolute must win. Our 'first game' form in recent years has been poor. I'd like to see that trend reversed.

 

[Philhawk]

The Melbourne Perspective (Bartram_Class)

Pre-Season Carnage:

For those of you not lucky enough to follow the Demon's catastrophic pre-season, heres a quick run-down of the events. It all started brightly enough, with Dean Bailey trumping many high-profile candidates to land the top job and he instantly declared a new era at the club after the decade spent under Daniher came to a rather unfruitful end. Discipline was spoken of as a major ingredient of the side that would represent the red and blue in 2008.

That lasted all of a couple of months. Brock McLean and Nathan Carroll went on a jail-hopping tour of Europe, then the same two preceded to return to training and get suspended again. Brock McLean thrown from the leadership group for tearing up the Trinity Carpark with his new 4x4, then hurrying back from one of our pre-season games a fair bit over the speed limit. Carroll on the other hand was suspended from our first two NAB Cup games for being drunk and disorderly at a hotel during another of his pre-season adventures. Big Chopper wouldn't stop there though, turning up 15 minutes from the bounce for the Kangaroos game last weekend, for which the punishment is yet to be decided (see later on in the article for why that might be). Unwilling to miss out on all the fun though, serial offender and perennial underachiever Colin Sylvia decided to go out chasing an ex-girlfriend one night, not long after the 1am curfew had been set down by the new "all powerful" leadership group (see irony in that McLean was part of this process). As a result, he won't take any part in the Hawks clash.

Oh, and did I mention we lost all four NAB Cup/Challenge games by a combined 191 points?

Craig Cameron, our recruitment manager, and Steve Harris, CEO, also walked. Paul McNamee has just today been named as Harris' replacement.

What to Expect:

Well now that I've got you all quaking in your boots, I think its time I started talking a bit of actual on-field stuff.

Bailey's gameplan still seems a bit of a mystery to most of us, he's spoken of utilising our marking power down forward (Robbo, Neitz, Bate, Sylvia, Newton) but we still seem to be trying to play the run and carry that Daniher tried to implement (oh so unsuccessfully) in 2007. If that remains the case in '08, we'll be stuck down the bottom again because we just don't have the skills to play it properly. However, if (as we are hoping) Bailey reverts back to the free-flowing, long kicking, high scoring Demons of '06, we might just be able to give some better teams a run for their money. The likes of McLean, Sylvia, Moloney and Jones love to break the lines and kick it long, we would hate to see that negated with the tempo football that may have been successful with other sides but doesn't suit the players we have at our disposal.

Our NAB Cup performances were somewhat misleading at times, only against the Kangaroos did we put out a side that might remotely resemble the side that walks out on Sunday. Why I hear you ask, well to put it plainly, many of our best are still nursing injuries. Jared Rivers, whose importance I will go into later, is still recovering from post-season surgery and has been nursed back into action via Sandy. Clint Bartram, who played just the 1 game last year, Matthew Bate, Ricky Petterd, Matthew Whelan, Paul Wheatley and Cameron Bruce are also among those with interupted pre-seasons and would be doubtful for the Hawks game.

The Youngsters:

A lot of pressure on this lot this year, we expect a few of them to really come on, they've served their time in the VFL and should be ready.

Simon Buckley - Probably the success story of our NAB Cup campaign (if we could even call it that). Tall, 192cm, strong and quick, he's been moulded to play the Cameron Bruce-esque wingman role. Loves to run with the ball, but does seem to get caught a bit in possesion, that will come with experience. I'd want serious questions asked if he didn't line up on the weekend, our midfield lacks pace and he'd certainly bring a bit of flair along too. 4th year at the club.

Michael "Juice" Newton - Cult hero over on the Demons board for his eccentric playing style and stories about his prowess (or lack of it) in the bedroom. Just the 10 games into his career, but has a mighty leap and a good set of hands. Heir apparent to David Neitz and with the big warhorse running on extras, Juice needs to make the step up in '08. Played out of CHF in the pre-season, that could be his go until Neitz moves on, doubts over his application remain but the boy has stacks of talent and with a bit of weight could be a decent FF.

Ricky Petterd - Many football fans will be happy to know the young Queenslander has come on nicely since returning from his life-threatening lung injury. His returns so far this pre-season have been on the quiet side but he has had little gametime due to Bailey being keen to ease him back into it. I doubt he'll play Round 1 but might be a decent little DT proposition later on in the year.

Match-ups:

Think it might be worthy me giving you an idea of who will line up -

FB: Bell, Carroll, Miller
HB: Yze, Rivers, Green
C: Bruce, Moloney, Buckley
HF: Morton, Newton, Petterd
FF: Robertson, Neitz, Davey
R: White, Jones, McLean

I: McDonald, P Johnson, Dunn, Wheatley/Bartram

Not easy to find the gaps in that side, your suspensions will certainly even up the gulf in class between the midfields. McLean is a bit of an enigma, but hopefully if Sewell goes to him, that should free up one of Jones, Moloney or McDonald to get the clearances. That said, it will be interesting to see how Brock deals with the attention of taggers, he really struggled last season and was frustrated rather easily.

In my opinion though, the game will be decided by how well our defenders can deal with your multi-faceted forward line which is probably the most dangerous going around. I hate to put it bluntly but if Jared Rivers doesn't line up, you can scratch any chance we have to win. Its no coincidence I assure you that in a year where we finished 14th, Jared only managed three games. One of which you might recall was the Round 2 clash between these two sides in which Buddy only managed 1 goal (14 possies, 4 marks) and we even closed to just 7 points behind in the last quarter before you kicked away. Take Rivers out of that side, and one of Miller, Frawley or Carroll would have to go to Franklin, I can't imagine what kind of destruction he would cause if that turns out to be the case. Incidentally, Brad Miller has had a decent pre-season down back, and combined with his position in the leadership group, may be on the verge of actually asserting himself in a position at long last, 91 games into his career.

The other interesting battle will be in the ruck, and giving the midfields first usage of the ball out of the centre. Jeff White is no spring chicken anymore and has lost some of his leap that made him the competition's premier ruckman a few years back. There is no clear heir to his position just yet, Paul Johnson is big and strong but is about as useful a tap ruckman as James McDonald would be. John Meesen is big, strong and has a massive aerobic capacity, but can't ruck, and has even been used in a tagging role during the pre-season. Mark Jamar on the other hand is the only player with the competition whose played more than 50 games and averages less than 5 possessions a game. I fear Robbie Campbell and Simon Taylor will have a field day with that lot.

I feel Aaron Davey will have been very happy to see Campbell Brown suspended for the season opener, no-one has had his measure like Brown in recent years.

Prediction:

If Rivers doesn't play, Hawthorn by 10+ goals. If he does, who knows? If we can get a bit of run going out of defence, and the likes of Robertson, Neitz and Davey get the ball coming in fast and long, we might go alright. That said, Hawthorn are genuine premiership contenders and should be beating sides like ours, even with four of your best out.

The one thing I am excited to see though is the two young midfields go at it, the likes of McGlynn (who I personally love), Mitchell, Birchall, Young pitting their wits against Jones, McLean and Moloney should make for a great battle. Overall though, too much power up top for our undersized backline.

Hawthorn by 34.

 

[Bartram_Class]

Just incidentally fellas, that should read "pretty easy to find the gaps in that side" rather than "not easy to find the gaps in that side".

To me, that backline of ours reads like the Grand Canyon.

Decent effort to get our predictions so close in the end.

 

[Roughie]

I really hope this becomes a regular fixture to the regular season, I love these reports. Once again Phil has chosen obviously two great posters (I already am a fan of Mervyn's posts). A really top report guys.

It seems Melbourne are really relying on Rivers, but the question is after missing considerable time how will he go if he does play in round 1? Surely he will be a bit rusty? Also how has his pre season been?

I also want to know how Melbourne will match up on Williams and Rioli? Also the question is, are any one going to respect Williams? It seems everyone in the media, and every where forget Willow was a two time 60+ goal kicking forward. Yes he may have been used as the only target, but you cannot ignore the blokes ability.

Throw in the potential that Thorp may play as he is named on the HFF in the squad. I think our forward line will wreak havoc on Melbournes defence. Its their midfield against our depleted version I am worried about. I really hope Sewell gets to play offensive and not do a defensive role unless needs be.

I would think Lado will get Davey again. I wouldnt be surprised seeing Gilham get Newton, Croad on Neitz and Murphy to come in and play on Robbo. Robbo will cause some head aches if we cannot get his match up right.

I am excited to see Jones, I really rate the bloke. He is hard at it, and has the potential to tag, or duke it out with the best of them.

 

[Bartram_Class]

It seems Melbourne are really relying on Rivers, but the question is after missing considerable time how will he go if he does play in round 1? Surely he will be a bit rusty? Also how has his pre season been?

I don't think he played in an actual NAB Cup/Challenge game though he has certainly played two games for Sandy. No doubt he'll be rusty but hes the kind of player that can get away with it.

From reports I read, in his first quarter for Sandy, he took three pack marks in the D50 and had a dozen or so touches before being dragged off for a rest. The boy just knows where to position himself.

Let me put it this way, a half fit Rivers > any other tall defender we have.

I also want to know how Melbourne will match up on Williams and Rioli? Also the question is, are any one going to respect Williams? It seems everyone in the media, and every where forget Willow was a two time 60+ goal kicking forward. Yes he may have been used as the only target, but you cannot ignore the blokes ability.

Can't remember when it was, but Williams cut us up a while ago, and every defender we put on him was equally clueless as to how to play him. I'd imagine Daniel Bell will get thrown the job, hes quick and strong. Did some great jobs last year and was one of our most improved. Should negate Willo I think. I'm more worried about Boyle and Roughead. Whats the word on Boyle by the way, heard he might be injured?

As for Rioli, if Whelan plays he will go to him, otherwise it will either be one of our youngsters (Bartram, Bode) or our playmakers, Green and Yze. He could be a surprise packet though, Green and Yze don't believe in accountability.

Throw in the potential that Thorp may play as he is named on the HFF in the squad. I think our forward line will wreak havoc on Melbournes defence. Its their midfield against our depleted version I am worried about. I really hope Sewell gets to play offensive and not do a defensive role unless needs be.

To think if Ryan Ferguson hadn't been a fool, Sewell would be in red and blue this weekend.

Jeez we were robbed there.

I would think Lado will get Davey again. I wouldnt be surprised seeing Gilham get Newton, Croad on Neitz and Murphy to come in and play on Robbo. Robbo will cause some head aches if we cannot get his match up right.

Robbo's had a dog of a pre-season.

Probably come out and kick 8 now though.

I am excited to see Jones, I really rate the bloke. He is hard at it, and has the potential to tag, or duke it out with the best of them.

We love him.

 

[melbourne150]

B.C i don't agree with most of your preview.

Not saying it's bad because you can tell you put time and effort into it.

It's just a differ of opinion

 

[Bartram_Class]

B.C i don't agree with most of your preview.

Not saying it's bad because you can tell you put time and effort into it.

It's just a differ of opinion

No worries mate, feel free to tell me where though mate.

Its a discussion ey?

 

[melbourne150]

No worries mate, feel free to tell me where though mate.

Its a discussion ey?

The first thing and i'm sure you already know this is that you can come of as being quite negative. Wich can be a good thing at times(and is neede in a preview) but after reading both preivews the first thing i noticed was that Mervyn Beasley's preivew highlighted Hawthorns positives/advantages where as i felt like you didn't talk about melbourne's positives/advantages we have going into this game.

The first one is that IMO we have quite an advantage in the midfield. Who will be Hawthorns mids? Cambell(ruck), Mitchell, Sewell, Tuck, McGlyn, Young/Bateman?,

Where as we have White, Bruce, McDonald, McLean, Jones, Green/Davey/Buckley.

I feel we have a big advantage because 2 of the players they are missing are goal there kicking mids in Hodge and Lewis. and along with Crawford they are the mids who usualy get the ball from Mitchell or Sewell and create plays and get the ball to the forwards.

And you talked about there forward line and how difficult it would be for our defenders to match up on and rightfully so because they have a very strong forward line. But i feel like you didn't really touch on the fact that there backline isn't particulary strong especially with no brown.

I think we may match up(at the start of the game) like this:

FB: Bell Miller Carroll
FF:Williams Roughead Boyle

HB: Bartram Rivers Whelan
HF: Dew Franklin Whelan

C: Bruce McDonald Buckley
C: Bateman Mitchell Young

HF: Dunn Newton Green
HB: Birchall Gilham Guerra

FF: Robertson Neitz Davey
FB: Murphy Croad Ladson

R: White McLean Jones
R: Cambell Sewell Tuck

Bench: p.Johnson Petterd Moloney Yze
Bench: Taylor McGlyn Ozborne Clarke/Morton?

And i think if Robbo or Neitz start to get on top Croad will go onto Robbo wich will force them to play Roughead on Neitz wich takes a big target out of there forward line.



I guess what i'm trying to say is i felt like you talked alot about the negatives but not really about the positives. Or maybe in your opinion there arn't really any positives?

 

[Brentism]

Excellent reviews, pretty much spot on I think. It will be good to read these reviews each week.

I am a bit worried however about our lack of polish/skill/experience in the midfield. If the Dees can dominate in this area, it could be very close. Their FWD line is not as shabby as some may think and will probably post a decent score if the supply is there. We just have to make sure our FWD line is on the ball, and our mid's try to break even atleast. Excited and worried at the same time, feels strange .

Excited that we have brought Rioli, Dowler, Thorp and Tuck into the team, hope all 4 play

 

[RustyHawk]

Great stuff Merv & Bartram

Melbourne, thanks for your input. One thing, I dont think Whelan can play on Whelan though

"HB: Bartram Rivers Whelan
HF: Dew Franklin Whelan"

I think you will find Rioli is Aaron Davey mark II which is a scary thought for you guys as I really rate Davey.

Will not be an easy match for Hawthorn. New season new start for Melbourne.

Lets hope its both an entertaining and enjoyable game of Aussie Rules.

 

[thatswhatimtalkinabout]

Both reviews were very entertaining and a credit to Merv & B.C.

 

[MinerBoy]

Got a feeling Laddo might take Davey, rather than Osborne. He did an excellent job last year.

 

[Mervyn Beasley]

Thanks for the feedback guys.
Was not an easy task, but was fun to do all the same.

Apologies for not mentioning Thorp who has suprisingly been named. Assumed that 1 and a half 1/4's would not be satisfactory preparation before 1st game, along with the assumption he was injured.

Cheers all and bring it on

 

[krisholio14]

If Hawthorn is switched on, it's hard to see where they will lose this game.

 

[wata]

Great work gentlemen

Cheers

 

[raff23]

If Hawthorn is switched on, it's hard to see where they will lose this game.

if there switched on, it will get very ugly very quickly, can't wait bring it on.

 

[Lach72]

if there switched on, it will get very ugly very quickly, can't wait bring it on.

Oh bullshit