Injury All things COVID-19 - including the impact on Season 2020

[CatToTheFuture]

Without wanting to cause alarm or undue stress to people, I'm interested in finding out people's views on covid-19 on the 2020 season. I understand that football should be the least concern here and I'm not wanting to downplay the impacts to society, but it would be a good exercise to understand in advance.

The fatality rate with covid-19 seems to be in the 2% range, and if uncontained the upper limit for Australian fatalities would then appear to be 500k dead. Obviously the health department would like to do everything they can to slow the spread or contain this at every opportunity and prevent that outcome. Even if you think this is no worse than a bad flu season the media coverage means the government needs to be seen to be taking drastic action regardless.

So with that in mind, I'm trying to put some thought behind the probability of the following outcomes:

A) Spectators banned from attending some matches.

This makes sense where the government feels the virus is uncontrolled in the community and opportunities to spread it must be minimised. 40-90k crowd attendances would be a massive risk that I couldn't see being allowed if the virus is not considered contained.

This happening to at least a few matches I see as a near certainty but I'd say there'd probably be a blanket period in the season where this applies to every game. My guess is that this period will last as long as it takes for new cases to plateau.

Prediction: 70% chance this happens for minimum 3 rounds

B) A player testing positive for covid-19 putting effectively forfeiting their whole side for 2 rounds for quarantine.

Players travel extensively and would be high risk spreaders of the virus with a 14 day incubation. If a player tested positive then there's a very high likelihood he has spread it to the whole playing group. Having that team play against another side presents a high risk of spreading it to the other side. In a case where this happens there's a possibility that the next 2 matches would be canceled while the players are quarantined.

This action would be drastic but I think unlikely and they would only quarantine the players shown affected.

Prediction: 80% chance they quarantine only affected players, 20% chance of blanket quarantine.

C) A playing group losing min 30% of their best 22 players to illness for 2 rounds

This I see as more likely. If a player has tested positive they'd be unlikely to play regardless due to the illness, but with long incubation periods and players in close contact during training, I'd think it pretty likely that at least one playing group would be hit mostly all at once.

Prediction: 50% chance this happens to at least one club

D) Temporary bans on open training sessions and media

Almost a certainty at peak periods I would think and as it's easy to implement I'd say it's a 90% chance

E) players training in isolation

Reasonably likely that once players start testing positive the clubs will attempt to minimise the chances and isolate players from each other. Some impact to team cohesion and ability to implement game style changes mid-season. Possible impacts to fitness level

Prediction: 50% chance this happens to at least one side

F) Number of refunded tickets/ partial membership refunds over spectator bans leads to liquidity problems for AFL, causing them to sign unfavourable rights deal with fox early to guarantee solvency. Impact to growth of salary cap in AFL and especially AFLW.

There's a few steps in a row to get to this one so I'd say it's not likely. But it looks plausible.

Prediction: 10% chance TPP growth matches inflation only

As I said, I'm not wanting to alarm anyone unduly but just interested to see if what I'm imagining is roughly in line with what others are thinking, or am I just manning the panic stations a little early.

Mods also feel free to move or remove etc if this is in the wrong place or out of line somehow

 

[HaroLad]

A) Spectators banned from attending some matches.

Prediction: 70% chance this happens for minimum 3 rounds

Did you mean to type 0.07% chance?

Nothing of the sort will happen.

 

[Seeds]

I suggested this 3 weeks ago on here. No one took me seriously then. Wonder if people will start to take it seriously now.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Did you mean to type 0.07% chance?

Nothing of the sort will happen.

Sporting events in affected countries are being cancelled, postponed, or moved to unaffected countries right now. I'd say it's not a wild claim to think we'd do something similar here once we're affected.

 

[FootyNoobie]

Looking forward to seeing a team run out all with surgical masks on..

 

[CatRiot]

I also mentioned this a few weeks back.

I suspect their could be some disruptions, players being quarantined, and maybe crowd attendances lower in the peak of winter when I presume the virus could be more active.

We may see people wearing more face masks, particularly those living in dense urban environments, at the footy and using public transport.

It appears the virus seems to effect the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions... Still not ideal.

 

[Joey JoJo Shabad]

Looking forward to seeing a team run out all with surgical masks on..

It would be far more interesting to see the boys run out & compete in hazmat suits....

 

[Ratcat]

Zipp.

 

[Turbocat]

zero impact

 

[Biggy_Boy]

Hasn't started spreading through the community yet, and we're not letting anybody in from China at the moment, so I think it's jumping the gun a bit to assume there'll be a significant impact on life in Australia. That could always change but we'll have to wait and see before we can reasonably making dire predictions about mass public congregation bans.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Hasn't started spreading through the community yet, and we're not letting anybody in from China at the moment, so I think it's jumping the gun a bit to assume there'll be a significant impact on life in Australia. That could always change but we'll have to wait and see before we can reasonably making dire predictions about mass public congregation bans.

Not sure China is the issue anymore though, most new cases are outside of China. Robert Booy from the National centre for immunisation research and surveillance was implying that keeping it out of Australia is not a realistic outcome and that they should be able to keep infections to "well under" 50% of the population with their containment approach and would be targeting 10-20% of the population. So firstly the fatality rate has been stable at 2-3% so when he says that he means they should be able to stay well under 250k fatalities and should be targeting 50-100k fatalities.

Secondly, and this is the point I'm trying to make - how do you limit that infection rate while still allowing sporting events with 30-60k spectators multiple times per week with travelling crowds? There are a set of actions that need to be taken to get down from 50% to 10% for their containment approach and the containment approach used elsewhere in the world has meant canceling sporting events with large crowds.

Who is vulnerable to coronavirus? So far children appear safe from COVID-19

One of Australia's leading influenza researchers says 50 per cent of the population is likely to get COVID-19, but so far research shows children are not at risk of serious symptoms.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Ratcat]

Not sure China is the issue anymore though, most new cases are outside of China. Robert Booy from the National centre for immunisation research and surveillance was implying that keeping it out of Australia is not a realistic outcome and that they should be able to keep infections to "well under" 50% of the population with their containment approach and would be targeting 10-20% of the population. So firstly the fatality rate has been stable at 2-3% so when he says that he means they should be able to stay well under 250k fatalities and should be targeting 50-100k fatalities.

Secondly, and this is the point I'm trying to make - how do you limit that infection rate while still allowing sporting events with 30-60k spectators multiple times per week with travelling crowds? There are a set of actions that need to be taken to get down from 50% to 10% for their containment approach and the containment approach used elsewhere in the world has meant canceling sporting events with large crowds.

Who is vulnerable to coronavirus? So far children appear safe from COVID-19

One of Australia's leading influenza researchers says 50 per cent of the population is likely to get COVID-19, but so far research shows children are not at risk of serious symptoms.

www.abc.net.au

All part of the trade wars, pretty obvious.

 

[Turbocat]

Not sure China is the issue anymore though, most new cases are outside of China. Robert Booy from the National centre for immunisation research and surveillance was implying that keeping it out of Australia is not a realistic outcome and that they should be able to keep infections to "well under" 50% of the population with their containment approach and would be targeting 10-20% of the population. So firstly the fatality rate has been stable at 2-3% so when he says that he means they should be able to stay well under 250k fatalities and should be targeting 50-100k fatalities.

Secondly, and this is the point I'm trying to make - how do you limit that infection rate while still allowing sporting events with 30-60k spectators multiple times per week with travelling crowds? There are a set of actions that need to be taken to get down from 50% to 10% for their containment approach and the containment approach used elsewhere in the world has meant canceling sporting events with large crowds.

Who is vulnerable to coronavirus? So far children appear safe from COVID-19

One of Australia's leading influenza researchers says 50 per cent of the population is likely to get COVID-19, but so far research shows children are not at risk of serious symptoms.

www.abc.net.au

1000 to 2000 people die each year from the everyday flu.. what ever percentage of the population that is .. doesnt reflect the age or the health of those that die... and so it will be for Corna.

Early stats from China show it it quite invfectious but not as lethal as many of viruses , and the is a bias of death rates.

10-39 .2% , 40-49 .4% , 50-59 1.3% , 60-69 3.6% , 70-79 8% , 80+ 14.80%

Coronavirus: Here’s the mortality rate for every age bracket

The report from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control published details of more than 44,000 confirmed cases, this is what was found.

www.news.com.au

The odds are once it spreads, and it will eventually spread , the most affected area of the population will be 60 and older , I suspect not much different to every day flu. Once the idea of it be survivable becomes publicised ,imo, the panic type edge to this will settle.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

For most people, the COVID-19 will just be the flu with no deadly consequences. I think it's too early to tell how it will affect the season so far. There might be some quarantining here and there. Those who have died from this are mostly elderly people with other severe chronic illnesses making it worse. This happens with nearly every flu outbreak every year as well. I think it's wise to stay vigilant, have your flu shot this year, wash your hands frequently as this is droplet spread, don't sneeze or cough at anyone if you do have flu or cold symptoms, and don't go to work if you're sick and spread it to your colleagues/customers. All the usual common sense stuff. But let's not get carried away with the outbreak yet.

 

[Spazz Cat]

Bloody 1st round of MotoGP called off.
Too many Italians need to go there spreading Corona all over the joint.

 

[Spazz Cat]

All part of the trade wars, pretty obvious.

Faark Oath

 

[Seeds]

Hasn't started spreading through the community yet, and we're not letting anybody in from China at the moment, so I think it's jumping the gun a bit to assume there'll be a significant impact on life in Australia. That could always change but we'll have to wait and see before we can reasonably making dire predictions about mass public congregation bans.

Um its not just in china anymore and universities are letting in plenty of people from china anyway. Plus the virus is already here in australia.

 

[Seeds]

For most people, the COVID-19 will just be the flu with no deadly consequences. I think it's too early to tell how it will affect the season so far. There might be some quarantining here and there. Those who have died from this are mostly elderly people with other severe chronic illnesses making it worse. This happens with nearly every flu outbreak every year as well. I think it's wise to stay vigilant, have your flu shot this year, wash your hands frequently as this is droplet spread, don't sneeze or cough at anyone if you do have flu or cold symptoms, and don't go to work if you're sick and spread it to your colleagues/customers. All the usual common sense stuff. But let's not get carried away with the outbreak yet.

This is not just another flu. Its death rate is 5000 times higher then the standard flu. Plus the virus itself is not really thr issue. Its the measures govts put in place to stop its spread. Some other countries have already banned gatherings of more then 5000 people. That ends all major sporting events. If the virus starts spreading here our restrictions will be even greater. And some experts now say a major outbreak here is inevitable. The football season could very well be cancelled if we had an outbreak.

 

[Seeds]

Not sure China is the issue anymore though, most new cases are outside of China. Robert Booy from the National centre for immunisation research and surveillance was implying that keeping it out of Australia is not a realistic outcome and that they should be able to keep infections to "well under" 50% of the population with their containment approach and would be targeting 10-20% of the population. So firstly the fatality rate has been stable at 2-3% so when he says that he means they should be able to stay well under 250k fatalities and should be targeting 50-100k fatalities.

Secondly, and this is the point I'm trying to make - how do you limit that infection rate while still allowing sporting events with 30-60k spectators multiple times per week with travelling crowds? There are a set of actions that need to be taken to get down from 50% to 10% for their containment approach and the containment approach used elsewhere in the world has meant canceling sporting events with large crowds.

Who is vulnerable to coronavirus? So far children appear safe from COVID-19

One of Australia's leading influenza researchers says 50 per cent of the population is likely to get COVID-19, but so far research shows children are not at risk of serious symptoms.

www.abc.net.au

Problem is most people look to the recent past to work out what will happen. No football has been cancelled in the past due to pandemics so they assume it wont happen again. Problem is we havnt seen a pandemic like this in the recent past. This virus is in the perfect sweet spot of having a high enough death rate to result in major containment policies but not too high so that it kills everyone who gets it and doesnt spread.

 

[Turbocat]

This is not just another flu. Its death rate is 5000 times higher then the standard flu. Plus the virus itself is not really thr issue. Its the measures govts put in place to stop its spread. Some other countries have already banned gatherings of more then 5000 people. That ends all major sporting events. If the virus starts spreading here our restrictions will be even greater. And some experts now say a major outbreak here is inevitable. The football season could very well be cancelled if we had an outbreak.

Isnt there some events happening to empty stadiums?

5000 time higher death rate seems excessive if we have 1000-2000 deaths each year to normal flu? The thing is as it spreads it will mutate and change, it will most likely beome less fatal , as other virtues have in the past.

I agree if the Gov feel they need to take measure they will ,but will the feel they need to?. I feel at the moment they are still learning about it. Its early days.

The fact is it will eventually get thru, it may be a person from France who has been to Italy who has been to China..but it will get thru. Will isolation stop it , I have my doubts. WW may just have to lump that .5% who get it will not recover and eventually most will get it.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

1000 to 2000 people die each year from the everyday flu.. what ever percentage of the population that is .. doesnt reflect the age or the health of those that die... and so it will be for Corna.

Early stats from China show it it quite invfectious but not as lethal as many of viruses , and the is a bias of death rates.

10-39 .2% , 40-49 .4% , 50-59 1.3% , 60-69 3.6% , 70-79 8% , 80+ 14.80%

Coronavirus: Here’s the mortality rate for every age bracket

The report from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control published details of more than 44,000 confirmed cases, this is what was found.

www.news.com.au

The odds are once it spreads, and it will eventually spread , the most affected area of the population will be 60 and older , I suspect not much different to every day flu. Once the idea of it be survivable becomes publicised ,imo, the panic type edge to this will settle.

That fatality rate is materially higher than the flu. Flu is like 0.1% I think. This is 20x higher

For most people, the COVID-19 will just be the flu with no deadly consequences. I think it's too early to tell how it will affect the season so far. There might be some quarantining here and there. Those who have died from this are mostly elderly people with other severe chronic illnesses making it worse. This happens with nearly every flu outbreak every year as well. I think it's wise to stay vigilant, have your flu shot this year, wash your hands frequently as this is droplet spread, don't sneeze or cough at anyone if you do have flu or cold symptoms, and don't go to work if you're sick and spread it to your colleagues/customers. All the usual common sense stuff. But let's not get carried away with the outbreak yet.

I'm not trying to panic people here but the government will surely have to take action on a pandemic virus that could kill up to 500k people

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Isnt there some events happening to empty stadiums?

5000 time higher death rate seems excessive if we have 1000-2000 deaths each year to normal flu? The thing is as it spreads it will mutate and change, it will most likely beome less fatal , as other virtues have in the past.

I agree if the Gov feel they need to take measure they will ,but will the feel they need to?. I feel at the moment they are still learning about it. Its early days.

The fact is it will eventually get thru, it may be a person from France who has been to Italy who has been to China..but it will get thru. Will isolation stop it , I have my doubts. WW may just have to lump that .5% who get it will not recover and eventually most will get it.

There are plenty of events canceled but I was implying they'd play AFL games for tv audiences only. Be interesting to see the effect on Richmond games

 

[dazbroncos]

I suggested this 3 weeks ago on here. No one took me seriously then. Wonder if people will start to take it seriously now.

Takin you seriosuly. Unlikely. You left remember?

Taking it serously. Perhaps.

GO Catters

 

[Turbocat]

That fatality rate is materially higher than the flu. Flu is like 0.1% I think. This is 20x higher


I'm not trying to panic people here but the government will surely have to take action on a pandemic virus that could kill up to 500k people

True atm ..but not 5000 X...an no where near sars etc

 

[Drunkcat]

There will be games that you will see people dropping like fly's in the crowd falling out of grandstands umpires going down getting stretched off...other than that should all be good.....oh and anyone want to buy a mask I am selling for a grand each