Injury All things COVID-19 - including the impact on Season 2020

[Seeds]

Why 30?
Is that so when it doesn't happen you can say you predicted a 70% chance the season wouldn't be cancelled by the end June.

Its 30 because i dont think its higher then 30. Do you want me to make my probabilities up so it more easily suits a narrative? Im not a hack.

 

[Drunkcat]

I think some from this group have gone out and stocked up on food dunny paper just like the news said lol

 

[Max Milburn]

Its 30 because i dont think its higher then 30. Do you want me to make my probabilities up so it more easily suits a narrative? Im not a hack.

No, I just seriously wondered how you came to that conclusion.
So, it's a guess?
Fair enough.

 

[4quarter_cat]

I think some from this group have gone out and stocked up on food dunny paper just like the news said lol

What you mean you haven't?
I got dunny paper, tinned spaghetti, several drums of water, a back up genny, and several drums of petrol. I live in brunswick so gotta get in before all the hipsters clue in.

Oh shit I forgot food for me dog. Be right back...

 

[briztoon]

1000 to 2000 people die each year from the everyday flu.. what ever percentage of the population that is .. doesnt reflect the age or the health of those that die... and so it will be for Corna.

Early stats from China show it it quite invfectious but not as lethal as many of viruses , and the is a bias of death rates.

10-39 .2% , 40-49 .4% , 50-59 1.3% , 60-69 3.6% , 70-79 8% , 80+ 14.80%

Coronavirus: Here’s the mortality rate for every age bracket

The report from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control published details of more than 44,000 confirmed cases, this is what was found.

www.news.com.au

The odds are once it spreads, and it will eventually spread , the most affected area of the population will be 60 and older , I suspect not much different to every day flu. Once the idea of it be survivable becomes publicised ,imo, the panic type edge to this will settle.

1000 people die from the flu where, every year?

Last year in Australia, 817 people died from flu during our flu season. 97% of cases were from influenza A.

This northern hemisphere flu season, the USA CDC are estimating between 10,000 and 25,000 deaths from flu.

If the USA has the same mortality rate as Australia per head of population, that would be ~10,500 deaths from the flu.

If China has the same mortality rate as Australia from the flu, that would be ~42,000 deaths from the flu.

 

[Seeds]

First human to human transmission in australia just announced.

 

[Seeds]

No, I just seriously wondered how you came to that conclusion.
So, it's a guess?
Fair enough.

Yep its a guess based on the collection of information Ive read and my own judgement of how governments respond. I.e. Bayesian inference.

 

[4quarter_cat]

First human to human transmission in australia just announced.

Where Seeds?

 

[Seeds]

Where Seeds?

Sydney

 

[CatToTheFuture]

You have a right to worry, because of your pre-existing issues.
But 80,000 of the 87,490 infections are in China. So far, only 29 in Australia.
The overall rate of infection is 3.4%, but outside China it is 1.5%.
Our authorities haven't been blindsided or, as in China, hiding cases.
And nobody in Australia has passed the virus on to another person.

The speed the rate grows though is concerning. Korea had 400 cases a week ago then they jumped the other day by over 500 in 24 hours to over 3000. They had it under control then a Christian sect that believes sickness is God's punishment decided they didn't believe in quarantine. You couldn't make this s%$# up.

I think there is a 30 percent chance that the season will be cancelled by End of June.

Reckon this is an over reach. They'll be fine with locking crowds out I think.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Sydney

Here comes the panic buying

No more handshakes: First human-to-human transmission of coronavirus in Australia

The news comes as the first case of the deadly disease was confirmed in Tasmania.

www.google.com

 

[cats_09]

1000 people die from the flu where, every year?

Last year in Australia, 817 people died from flu during our flu season. 97% of cases were from influenza A.

This northern hemisphere flu season, the USA CDC are estimating between 10,000 and 25,000 deaths from flu.

If the USA has the same mortality rate as Australia per head of population, that would be ~10,500 deaths from the flu.

If China has the same mortality rate as Australia from the flu, that would be ~42,000 deaths from the flu.

Those CDC flu death numbers are old from the end of January - this is the most recent info from the CDC:

According the CDC, for the period 1 October to 22 Feb (121 days) preliminary estimates are:

- between 32 & 45 million cases of the flu

- between 14 & 21 million medical visits

- between 310,000 & 560,000 patients hospitalised

- between 18,000 & 46,000 deaths; or between 148 & 380 per day

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

I'm not trying to panic people here but the government will surely have to take action on a pandemic virus that could kill up to 500k people

And you say you're not trying to panic people, eh? I will listen to the Doctors, not someone on Bigfooty.

 

[Hamingja]

Based on the GC game it looks like a good year for it tbh.

Maybe this was Chris Scott's grand plan.

 

[frggr]

I thought this was the Bay, initially...

 

[patience]

There will be games that you will see people dropping like fly's in the crowd falling out of grandstands umpires going down getting stretched off...other than that should all be good.....oh and anyone want to buy a mask I am selling for a grand each

The old folk dropping like flies in the grandstands happens already.

 

[Hamingja]

Hasn't started spreading through the community yet, and we're not letting anybody in from China at the moment, so I think it's jumping the gun a bit to assume there'll be a significant impact on life in Australia. That could always change but we'll have to wait and see before we can reasonably making dire predictions about mass public congregation bans.

So wait you are a footy doomsdayer but talking this down. Biggy, full of surprises.

 

[cats_09]

Let's all pay attention to the advice from the Bull Mountains City Council - especially the highlighted point (please note I read this on Twitter)

 

[Seeds]

And you say you're not trying to panic people, eh? I will listen to the Doctors, not someone on Bigfooty.

There are doctors who say pandemic is now inevitable.

 

[Seeds]

Let's all pay attention to the advice from the Bull Mountains City Council - especially the highlighted point (please note I read this on Twitter)

View attachment 832401

Fake news. Version of this was floating around in the uk weeks ago.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Let's all pay attention to the advice from the Bull Mountains City Council - especially the highlighted point (please note I read this on Twitter)

View attachment 832401

A joke site somewhere changed the word "contact" to "sex" and geniuses have been copying the joke ever since. They mean if you go hunt goats then wear gloves when you touch the carcass

 

[Seeds]

The speed the rate grows though is concerning. Korea had 400 cases a week ago then they jumped the other day by over 500 in 24 hours to over 3000. They had it under control then a Christian sect that believes sickness is God's punishment decided they didn't believe in quarantine. You couldn't make this s%$# up.


Reckon this is an over reach. They'll be fine with locking crowds out I think.

Possibly. Has a sporting season ever proceeded with every game locked out to fans? The tv ratings would plummet if there were no fans.

 

[Spazz Cat]

Let's all pay attention to the advice from the Bull Mountains City Council - especially the highlighted point (please note I read this on Twitter)

View attachment 832401

Ahhh bummer

 

[CatToTheFuture]

And you say you're not trying to panic people, eh? I will listen to the Doctors, not someone on Bigfooty.

If you like listening to doctors then try reading comments from Professor Robert Booy from the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance from whom I got the previous comments from

While some health experts have suggested the majority of Australians could become infected, Professor Booy said that was unlikely.

Quoting him from here:

Who is vulnerable to coronavirus? So far children appear safe from COVID-19

One of Australia's leading influenza researchers says 50 per cent of the population is likely to get COVID-19, but so far research shows children are not at risk of serious symptoms.

mobile.abc.net.au

"I think with our containment approach, we can keep it down to well under 50 per cent of the population getting sick," he said.

"That's still a lot and I would like to see it down to 10 to 20 per cent of people."

So the 10-20% of Australians being infected he'd like to see at a 2% fatality rate is 50-100k dead people. That's his best case scenario. His "well under 50%" means "well under quarter of a million dead"

 

[Seeds]

If fans are locked out this will seriously benefit us given our usual crowd disadvantage in melbourne. Tigers will be a 5 goal worse side too.