April - Daily Punt

[rideclutch]

Valid question but she will make this a truly run 1600M which is not what her main rivals in Catkins, First Seal and to a lesser extent Cosmic Endevour (she is cooked anyway) want, a genuinely run 1600M at Randwick is not too different to a 2000M event, she can really own the race making sure the others need to be at their best to run her down.

Good call, Randwick mile should be tough enough for her to run well - track pattern pending.

 

[iluvparis]

Money for Adelaide? WTF?? iluvparis could you remember if Adelaide was just a shit track worker then all of sudden put it together race day in the UK? Off those trials there is no possible way you could have him.

Will stick with To The World as long as the track isn't a bog.

Sorry mate - can't remember - and to be honest trackwork stuff is not really my specialty. Also assume he would be trained quite differently by Waller v O'Brien so might all be meaningless anyway.

I'm happy for my bet to get sunk if he just proves too good and gets up.

 

[iluvparis]

There was a comment on the UK racing channel last night that I agree with (they were talking about the Dubai World Cup as a guide).

Basically they were saying a fast pace suits the best horses because in a fast run race the bad horses just aren't physically capable of running the time. If you are a good horse you want the race run as fast as possible as it basically means none of the cats can win.

I 100% agree with this - as a Contributer backer I want the race run as fast as possible because I think he is the best horse in the race. Suggesting its a risk because he hasn't seen these conditions in Australia yet is looking for monsters under the bed IMHO. In a fast race I can only see Adelaide or the Japanese horses beating him.

 

[Main Man]

There was a comment on the UK racing channel last night that I agree with (they were talking about the Dubai World Cup as a guide).

Basically they were saying a fast pace suits the best horses because in a fast run race the bad horses just aren't physically capable of running the time. If you are a good horse you want the race run as fast as possible as it basically means none of the cats can win.

I 100% agree with this - as a Contributer backer I want the race run as fast as possible because I think he is the best horse in the race. Suggesting its a risk because he hasn't seen these conditions in Australia yet is looking for monsters under the bed IMHO. In a fast race I can only see Adelaide or the Japanese horses beating him.

You're ignoring the fact that his two worst performances in Australia were in the Emirates & Chipping Norton (still good but not as dominant) were the fastest run races he has contested.

He has proved himself to be the best horse WFA horse in Australia when the pace isn't on because he has the best turn of foot, he is yet to prove himself the best horse when the speed is on.

He is an odds on shot if this was going to be a walk sprint race, I'd much rather that scenario than a genuinely run race that could see him beaten by the Japanese or Adelaide as you suggest.

A fast pace potentially takes away his biggest advantage, I hope he wins because I will be on but I think there are question marks on him particularly from the draw.

 

[rideclutch]

140 Unit outlay.

Jesus wept. I'm happy when I win 10 units...

Some ballsy plays there taking on Contributer and big go Protectionist. Good luck

 

[Aussie Assault]

Couple at odds that I like early are R4 Sempre Libre ($8) and Diamond Drille ($17) in the QotT. Both Gai's which is unfortunate... Probably going to gamble on Adelaide just being too good for the rest, but will wait until Saturday at this stage.

 

[Aussie Assault]

After the weather they've had in Sydney last week I can just imagine the usual Randwick track having its laneways/pockets where the going is much better.

I also have a feeling the Sydney Cup winner will jump at +$10 odds.

 

[iluvparis]

You're ignoring the fact that his two worst performances in Australia were in the Emirates & Chipping Norton (still good but not as dominant) were the fastest run races he has contested.

He has proved himself to be the best horse WFA horse in Australia when the pace isn't on because he has the best turn of foot, he is yet to prove himself the best horse when the speed is on.

He is an odds on shot if this was going to be a walk sprint race, I'd much rather that scenario than a genuinely run race that could see him beaten by the Japanese or Adelaide as you suggest.

A fast pace potentially takes away his biggest advantage, I hope he wins because I will be on but I think there are question marks on him particularly from the draw.

The Emirates was a drop back in trip which I am happy to write off - and he still won the Chipping Norton beating Hartnell who has bolted in twice since (including defeating one of his main rivals here), at a trip I would argue is short of his optimum. That to me rated as good as his first up win. Still think its clutching at straws myself. I think the key is the distance, not the pace of a race - I think he is a straight out 2000m horse regardless of prace.

 

[rideclutch]

A fast pace potentially takes away his biggest advantage, I hope he wins because I will be on but I think there are question marks on him particularly from the draw.

Are you necessarily worried about a fast pace? 5.5 might roll along a bit in front but who else?

 

[Main Man]

Are you necessarily worried about a fast pace? 5.5 might roll along a bit in front but who else?

I don't think it will be a mental pace like Carlton House set last year but it will be genuine like the Chipping Norton, the Japanese aren't going to let it become a sit sprint either so I think the pressure will go into it from the 1000 to the 800M.

I just don't think Contributer is going to get it all his own way from barrier 13, he has been the dominant horse so far this Autumn & I think he is a star but he has had all the favors.

Michael Fraser on form line tonight was saying that he inspected the track today and that if there is no more rain or a limited amount then the rail will be the place to be on Saturday, he reckons its close to a good 3 near the rail and once you get further out than 2 meters it is much softer.

If they cannot make ground than he needs to be every bit the superstar to be winning.

I'm waiting for Saturday before getting involved in the race to be honest.

 

[rideclutch]

Michael Fraser on form line tonight was saying that he inspected the track today and that if there is no more rain or a limited amount then the rail will be the place to be on Saturday, he reckons its close to a good 3 near the rail and once you get further out than 2 meters it is much softer.

If they cannot make ground than he needs to be every bit the superstar to be winning.

I'm waiting for Saturday before getting involved in the race to be honest.

Very interesting!

Normally I'd just say rubbish but that track on Monday annoyed the shit out of me. I still suspect if conditions are consistent (ie. wet OR dry, not drying) the rail will be off and we'll be swooping wide again.

 

[iluvparis]

I wouldn't say he has had all the favours this prep either. It's not like the races have been served up to him on a platter. He has won them easily because he is simply the best horse. Not sure what more he could have done to be honest and he's getting out towards $4!

 

[Main Man]

I wouldn't say he has had all the favours this prep either. It's not like the races have been served up to him on a platter. He has won them easily because he is simply the best horse. Not sure what more he could have done to be honest and he's getting out towards $4!

Soft draws and slowly run races, of course he has done all he could possibly do and has done it well but lets be honest he hasn't been fully tested as yet.

He has a bit against him on Saturday, if the track plays on pace on Saturday then you will be getting better than $4s.

 

[iluvparis]

That's where we must disagree - outside the Japanese runner who his stablemate beat and Adelaide coming off a who knows what prep they are basically all the same cattle he has dealt with already. Can't see how this will be that much greater of a 'test' to what he has done already. Take out the Japanese and Adelaide and its an awful edition (obviously I don't rate Criterion).

$4 would be a ludicrous price barring farcial track bias

 

[Main Man]

We don't really disagree because unless there is a big bias I will be backing him also, I just don't think he as clear cut of a choice as he has been in his runs so far this Autumn, there is simply more he has to overcome here, stronger speed, barrier & new opposition in, To the World, Criterion (who I think is in this up to his ears) and Adelaide.

I think his current price is about right if the track plays fairly.

 

[iluvparis]

Not sure what it will say about the Championswaps marquee race if a horse that is 0 from 9 in races against all comers wins it.

He is poison odds for mine - should be double the price.

 

[Main Man]

If Criterion wins its a bad look you are suggesting? As a result he should be double his current odds?

Won't mean anything to the championships if he wins and who cares who wins what races to be honest?

Surely the only reason anyone ever watches racing is to have a bet, I enjoy watching good horses but if you couldn't bet on these races no one would be watching, I couldn't care less who wins what race as long as I end up turning a profit.

 

[Main Man]

Suggest you go an watch the Cox Plate again, Criterion's run was almost as good as Adelaide's to be honest, made exactly the same run as him, started a length behind him finished a length behind him, clearly the 2nd best run in the race.

He is a genuine G1 horse.

 

[iluvparis]

If Criterion wins its a bad look you are suggesting? As a result he should be double his current odds?

Won't mean anything to the championships if he wins and who cares who wins what races to be honest?
.

To me a horse that has failed to win a race from 9 attempts as an older horse should not be winning your championship race. But we have had this discussion before - I care about the sport itself whereas you only look at things from a punting perspective. I could easily watch a championship race without having a bet. I had zero total bets after the postponement last week.

Having said that - I fail to see how a horse who is 0 for 9 against all comers could be expected to break that record in what should be the best race of the carnival. He will need 4-5 other horses to run below their best and for him to run to his best - his current odds don't reflect that.

 

[iluvparis]

Suggest you go an watch the Cox Plate again, Criterion's run was almost as good as Adelaide's to be honest, made exactly the same run as him, started a length behind him finished a length behind him, clearly the 2nd best run in the race.

He is a genuine G1 horse.

Got bored after the first 6 crossed the line and switched off. But 50th percentile in the Cox Plate is probably about right for him.

Then flopped against the B-graders at Flemington.

If he wins I'll be shattered

 

[Jugada]

Lol get your hand off it. He has had his last 6 starts at G1 level and run 4 placings, he would be well deserving of winning a race like this. Its not win or nothing, there are shades of grey in how a horse performs

 

[Main Man]

Got bored after the first 6 crossed the line and switched off. But 50th percentile in the Cox Plate is probably about right for him.

Then flopped against the B-graders at Flemington.

If he wins I'll be shattered

He was clearly the 2nd best run in the race and you're talking rot if you disagree.

Contributer flopped against the b-graders in the Emirates but according to you he is the best horse in Australia?

I watch every race on a Saturday and barely have a bet, no bets at Caulfiled last week and one on Monday but I tell you I wouldn't be watching any racing if you weren't able to bet and I certainly couldn't care less who wins what races.

He is the 4th best horse in this race, on current form he is going as well as any of them apart from Contributer and he will get the run of the race.

If he wins you will be shattered? Unless you lose a considerable amount of money (more than you should) than I fail to understand how anyone would be shattered if a particular horse wins a race.

 

[iluvparis]

Contributer flopped against the b-graders in the Emirates but according to you he is the best horse in Australia?
.

Yes but in between that he has had 4 WINS - something Caterion has failed to manage even once against older horses.

I can't see how having failed to get past the post first at his last 9 attempts why there is anything to suggest he is capable of doing it this time.

 

[iluvparis]

If he wins you will be shattered? Unless you lose a considerable amount of money (more than you should) than I fail to understand how anyone would be shattered if a particular horse wins a race.

Because unlike yourself I actually have an emtional attachment to the game and respect for its 300 year history.

 

[iluvparis]

Lol get your hand off it. He has had his last 6 starts at G1 level and run 4 placings, he would be well deserving of winning a race like this. Its not win or nothing, there are shades of grey in how a horse performs

If he would be well deserving of winning this race why has he failed to do so since he was racing against his own age group?

Why does he keep getting beat?