Analysis Are the Cats a Fraud

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But that's the point. You don't have to be the 'best team'.

Winning the premiership doesn't prove you're the best team - just that you won on the day.

You could finish on top and beat a team twice during the season, then beat them again in the finals - but have a bad day and lose to them on GF Day.
Rarely happens like that- nearly always the best team by the end of the year wins the flag. Regardless of their ladder position.
 

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Think Cats and Swans are the head of the pack but don't think the gap is outrageous. If a side can outpressure them for a whole game they will be challenged. Regardless, Geelong have been very impressive to do so well with their age profile.

For sure. It is anyones game, essentially. It wasn't that long ago Sydney lost to Essendon and Geelong struggled against the Eagles. Its that season where a team just needs to be off by 5% and they will get rolled by the opposition. Should be fun!
 
For sure. It is anyones game, essentially. It wasn't that long ago Sydney lost to Essendon and Geelong struggled against the Eagles. Its that season where a team just needs to be off by 5% and they will get rolled by the opposition. Should be fun!

Agreed. The top 5 is really close, even Freo can win it from there. It's so close up the top. Feel this year more than any year having the week off week 2 will be so critical as there aren't too many easy beats wk2. You'd want that week off imo.
 
So would you say a runner leading going into the last lap of a 1500m is really the best runner even if another runner passes him to win 20m from home? Every team knows to win you need to win the gf going into the season and can plan accordingly.

Of the four year period where we won 3 flags the best the best H&A year was when we didn't win and looked tired come finals. 19 and 20 we came in strong. When you are the team winning when everything is on the line you are the best team.

This is just a bad analogy because in a single 1500m race the end result is an accumulation of all laps, and that isn't the case over the course of an AFL season. A more apt analogy would be a scenario with heats and finals. Often top athletes will do just enough to qualify and conserve energy for the final race. We see this in the AFL as you've pointed out, but that doesn't ensure the best wins. That's okay, that's part of the excitement of finals vs the pedestrian way you can win something like the Premier League. There's definitely a skill in executing when it matters most but I wouldn't say Steven Bradbury was the best speed skater when he won his Olympic gold medal or that the skill of executing when it mattered was the reason he won. There are other contributing factors, maybe not to that level in the AFL, but you could lose a couple of key players early and very much be put on the back foot.
 
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This is just a bad analogy because in a single 1500m race the end result is an accumulation of all laps, and that isn't the case over the course of an AFL season. A more apt analogy would be a scenario with heats and finals. Often top athletes will do just enough to qualify, and conserve energy for the final race. We see this in the AFL as you've pointed out, but I don't think this always results in the best winning. That's okay, that's part of the excitement and there's a skill in executing when it matters. But I wouldn't say Steven Bradbury was the best speed skater when he won his Olympic gold medal or that it was simply that he was a big moment performer. He was very lucky and essentially handed gold at the whim of things outside his control.

Kieran Perkins wasn’t the best 1500m swimmer in 1996. Highlighted by him qualifying for the final at the Olympics by less than a second. Then he came out and swum the race of his life and Daniel Kowalski became famous for being a bridesmaid
 
What if the runner who was leading going into the last lap was the world record holder, hadn't been beaten in 5 years, and only got passed because they twisted their ankle on the home turn and couldn't finish the race?

Would the eventual winner still be regarded as the best runner in the race?

There would be a good argument there but we talking one of one not of 22. If Geelong won their first two finals by 10 goals but lost 4-5 of their best for gf but still only just lost it would be valid but then you open up to every team using it as an excuse.

Main point is everyone knows the ultimate goal going in so being minor premier shouldn't indicate being the best team. Perhaps the greatest team ever in 2001-2003 Brisbane never finished on top but everyone knew they were the best.
 
Kieran Perkins wasn’t the best 1500m swimmer in 1996. Highlighted by him qualifying for the final at the Olympics by less than a second. Then he came out and swum the race of his life and Daniel Kowalski became famous for being a bridesmaid

Right, performing on the big stage is a factor, I just don't think it's the only factor.
 
Main point is everyone knows the ultimate goal going in so being minor premier shouldn't indicate being the best team. Perhaps the greatest team ever in 2001-2003 Brisbane never finished on top but everyone knew they were the best.
If everyone knew Brisbane were the best, why did they only start favourite in one of their three Grand Final wins?

(Interestingly, they started favourite in their loss to Port in 2004).

Hmmmmm......
 
If everyone knew Brisbane were the best, why did they only start favourite in one of their three Grand Final wins?

(Interestingly, they started favourite in their loss to Port in 2004).

Hmmmmm......
What were the odds?
 

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Approximate odds:

2001: Essendon $1.65 v. Brisbane $2.30
2002: Brisbane $1.25 v. Collingwood $4
2003: Collingwood $1.80 v. Brisbane $2.00
2004: Brisbane $1.50 v. Port $2.75

Of course, everything is easier in hindsight...
Where do you find those?
 
And that's all you've got for the year? WOW you beat the sides in 7th and 8th plus one full of kids that blew a 40 point lead and lost the following week to the eagles.
What an achievement i can see why you are the raging favourites with that form line


What we should have done to prove our credentials is lose to that team full of kids. Twice. After leading them. Twice.
Like Melbourne did. Twice.

F***en hell does ANYBODY actually think before they post on this forum.
 
Rarely happens like that- nearly always the best team by the end of the year wins the flag. Regardless of their ladder position.
That may be the case. The best team winning the premiership shouldn't come as a surprise.

But the premiership isn't a rubber of that determines the best team.

Buster Douglas wasn't a better boxer than Mike Tyson.

Matt Serra wasn't a better fighter than George St Pierre.

Steven Bradbury was the Olympic champion - but he wasn't the best skater.

There are plenty of examples of the best team getting beaten too.
 

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Analysis Are the Cats a Fraud

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