Are we in a rebuild?

[Roughies Boys]

How our list breaks down with age at years end

Shaun Burgoyne (35)
Josh Gibson (33)
Luke Hodge (33)
Jarryd Roughead (30)
Paul Puopolo (30)

Grant Birchall (29)
Ricky Henderson (29)
James Frawley (29)
Isaac Smith (29)
Ben Stratton (28)
Cyril Rioli (28)
Ben McEvoy (28)

Brendan Whitecross (27)
Ty Vickery (27)
Luke Breust (27)
Ryan Schoenmakers (27)
Jonathon Ceglar (26)
Taylor Duryea (26)
Liam Shiels (26)
Jack Gunston (26)
Jack Fitzpatrick (26)

Will Langford (25)
Tom Mitchell (24)
Jaeger O'Meara (23)
Jonathan O'Rourke (23)
Tim O'Brien (23)
Kaiden Brand (23)
Billy Hartung (22)
Kurt Heatherley (22)
Daniel Howe (22)
James Sicily (22)
Dallas Willsmore (21)
Teia Miles (21)
Marc Pittonet (21)
Ryan Burton (20)
Kieran Lovell (20)
Blake Hardwick (20)
Kade Stewart (20)
Luke Surman (20)
Conor Glass (20)
Harry Morrison (19)
Oliver Hanrahan (19)
James Cousins (19)
Mitchell Lewis (19)
Conor Nash (19)

Thoughts?

 

[The Lemon]

I think we are heading for a full rebuild, but at the moment, I think we are still gunning for finals.

A few more weeks, the realisation will become apparent and we will start the process.

 

[user33]

I think we are heading for a full rebuild, but at the moment, I think we are still gunning for finals.

A few more weeks, the realisation will become apparent and we will start the process.

I agree, the fact that we recruited TV means that they believe we are still a contending team. After 6 rounds they will still believe we can make finals.

I don't think the club will go full rebuild though, Clarko had too much faith in his premiership players that are young enough to play many more years.

 

[Brishawk]

The rebuild started after the 2015 flag. We took burton, Lovell and Hardwick with our first three picks.

 

[MrPremiership]

We should be in one but we're in a bit of denial at the moment.

The meaning of "catastrophic" will tell us a lot about what we think.

 

[QuietB]

I think we are in a rebuild.

If the Hawks thought they were a chance this year there is no way they would have let Lewis and Mitchell walk for free.

 

[Pessimistic]

We should be in one but we're in a bit of denial at the moment.

The meaning of "catastrophic" will tell us a lot about what we think.

2016 trading should tell us the club is not in denial

 

[MrPremiership]

2016 trading should tell us the club is not in denial

Henderson/Vickery muddy the waters some what.

 

[Nugett]

Of the 30 year olds, I see at least 2 possibly 3 being moved on at the end of this year with rest being phased out in subsequent years. Of the 27-29 year olds they probably have between 3-6 years service between them. IMO if the club decides to trade up in the draft, this list is the most likely to be the pawns. The 24-26 year olds have the potential for 6 to 10 years. This group will determine who will be the foundation for our next tilt at the flag. Those that are not in that consideration could either be traded or delisted or kept until a more suitable replacement is found. The 24 years and younger are similar to the previous group, those that are needed to be kept will be, those that aren't will either be delisted or traded. The 22 to 26 year olds are the ones that interests me the most, as to who will stand up and become the building blocks in the next 3-5 years, and who will fade into obscurity.

 

[Billyc]

I think the club has attempted a mini rebuild but a full rebuild is now required. Clarkson, Wright and co have got more right than many in footy history but they got a couple things wrong after last season (and this is all with the benefit of hindsight):

1. They overrated the second tier.
This is the crucial error that has set us back a couple of wasted years. The likes of Gunston, Breust, Shiels, Smith, Stratton and Frawley were very good players in a champion side. But they are much lesser players in a lesser side. This is the biggest mistake the club has made as it informed the other decisions that were then made late last year.

2. Last year's trade period
I think the club got some things wrong in the trade period. Mitchell and O'Meara were the right targets, for either a mini rebuild or a full rebuild. I have no issue with the targets and no issue with the price we paid for Mitchell. Pick 14 for a 23 year old gun midfielder is a great deal.

I have concerns over O'Meara's body given his last 2 games and the further knee injury but let's not forget he has missed two years and still had 37 touches in his second game back (how many players on our list have ever had 37 touches?). I am confident he will be a very good player for us. Whether he will be the same explosive athlete he once was I am not sure.

The price we paid for O'Meara has been inflated by that first error - overrating the second tier. If the 2017 draft pick was pick 13-14 (as I'm sure the decision makers expected it to be), the trade would be a good one. As it now looks like being pick 1-3 given our woeful performance this year, it clearly looks like overs.

3. Trading the wrong big names
We should not have traded Mitchell and Lewis for nothing. We would be a much more competitive side in 2017 with them and anyone who suggests otherwise is just drinking the cool aid. I don't think we would be a contender and possibly not even a finals side but we wouldn't be the shambolic lineup we currently are.

Again it comes down to overrating that second tier. Mitchell and Lewis did the heavy lifting. And more to the point, had the inadequacies of that second tier been identified before last year's trade period, the best strategy would have been to trade Shiels and Breust to secure Mitchell and O'Meara and keep our early pick for 2017.

4. Re-signing Breust
We trade out of this year's first round but we had a chance to get back into it if we let Breust leave as a free agent. Given where we look like finishing, the compensation pick for Breust would have probably been pick 2-4. All in hindsight, but re-signing him was an error.

Ultimately we now start a rebuild behind the 8-ball. We should look to move on a couple of those second tier players at seasons end, albeit for less than we would have received last year.

 

[Pessimistic]

Henderson/Vickery muddy the waters some what.

Henderson yes. If we assume the club thinks JOM and Titch will be in their prime in a couple of years, and TV as a ruck forward will still be OK in his early thirties, the hot period in question at the moment is 2 years hence (2019) to five years hence (2022)

Then look at the contract expiries tells you Bruest, Smith and Rioli are in the plans, as would be the leadership group. That we employed a full back (lake) over 30 for three years tells you frawley has a place if he maintains form.


To get some kids in, you'd think they start in forward and back pockets etc. those occupying those positions now might need to prove they can transition to more midfield or be traded out. they'll get the season 2017 to prove this

so 2019 to 2022. if we get to 2019 and its not looking good, then a more rigorous build will happen. the downside id some players currency will be less by then. the potential upside is we need not have worried so much.

What we really need is a Buckley type to move to a new club and clear out the Heath Shaw types. a younger Heath Shaw is just what we need

Contract ends 2017
Ceglar age 25 Duryea age 25 Sicily age 22 Frawley age 28 Hartung age 22

Contract ends 2018
Puopolo age 29 Roughead age 30 Vickerey age 25 Whitecross age 27

Contract ends 2019
Birchall age 29 Langford age 24 Gunston age 25 Shiels age 25 Stratton age 28

Contract ends 2020
Rioli age 27 Smith age 28

Contract ends 2021
Bruest age 26

Quoting the recent fox sports article on trading out players

 

[Pessimistic]

I think the club has attempted a mini rebuild but a full rebuild is now required. Clarkson, Wright and co have got more right than many in footy history but they got a couple things wrong after last season (and this is all with the benefit of hindsight):

1. They overrated the second tier.
This is the crucial error that has set us back a couple of wasted years. The likes of Gunston, Breust, Shiels, Smith, Stratton and Frawley were very good players in a champion side. But they are much lesser players in a lesser side. This is the biggest mistake the club has made as it informed the other decisions that were then made late last year.

2. Last year's trade period
I think the club got some things wrong in the trade period. Mitchell and O'Meara were the right targets, for either a mini rebuild or a full rebuild. I have no issue with the targets and no issue with the price we paid for Mitchell. Pick 14 for a 23 year old gun midfielder is a great deal.

I have concerns over O'Meara's body given his last 2 games and the further knee injury but let's not forget he has missed two years and still had 37 touches in his second game back (how many players on our list have ever had 37 touches?). I am confident he will be a very good player for us. Whether he will be the same explosive athlete he once was I am not sure.

The price we paid for O'Meara has been inflated by that first error - overrating the second tier. If the 2017 draft pick was pick 13-14 (as I'm sure the decision makers expected it to be), the trade would be a good one. As it now looks like being pick 1-3 given our woeful performance this year, it clearly looks like overs.

3. Trading the wrong big names
We should not have traded Mitchell and Lewis for nothing. We would be a much more competitive side in 2017 with them and anyone who suggests otherwise is just drinking the cool aid. I don't think we would be a contender and possibly not even a finals side but we wouldn't be the shambolic lineup we currently are.

Again it comes down to overrating that second tier. Mitchell and Lewis did the heavy lifting. And more to the point, had the inadequacies of that second tier been identified before last year's trade period, the best strategy would have been to trade Shiels and Breust to secure Mitchell and O'Meara and keep our early pick for 2017.

4. Re-signing Breust
We trade out of this year's first round but we had a chance to get back into it if we let Breust leave as a free agent. Given where we look like finishing, the compensation pick for Breust would have probably been pick 2-4. All in hindsight, but re-signing him was an error.

Ultimately we now start a rebuild behind the 8-ball. We should look to move on a couple of those second tier players at seasons end, albeit for less than we would have received last year.

FWIW I believe the club know exactly what it is doing and running the process. Id be more dissappointed if the flip flopped on a few bad results

 

[MrPremiership]

Henderson yes. If we assume the club thinks JOM and Titch will be in their prime in a couple of years, and TV as a ruck forward will still be OK in his early thirties, the hot period in question at the moment is 2 years hence (2019) to five years hence (2022)

Then look at the contract expiries tells you Bruest, Smith and Rioli are in the plans, as would be the leadership group. That we employed a full back (lake) over 30 for three years tells you frawley has a place if he maintains form.


To get some kids in, you'd think they start in forward and back pockets etc. those occupying those positions now might need to prove they can transition to more midfield or be traded out. they'll get the season 2017 to prove this

so 2019 to 2022. if we get to 2019 and its not looking good, then a more rigorous build will happen. the downside id some players currency will be less by then. the potential upside is we need not have worried so much.

What we really need is a Buckley type to move to a new club and clear out the Heath Shaw types. a younger Heath Shaw is just what we need

Contract ends 2017
Ceglar age 25 Duryea age 25 Sicily age 22 Frawley age 28 Hartung age 22

Contract ends 2018
Puopolo age 29 Roughead age 30 Vickerey age 25 Whitecross age 27

Contract ends 2019
Birchall age 29 Langford age 24 Gunston age 25 Shiels age 25 Stratton age 28

Contract ends 2020
Rioli age 27 Smith age 28

Contract ends 2021
Bruest age 26

Quoting the recent fox sports article on trading out players

This all suggests to me that the club was hedging its bets or trying an express rebuild.

This years trade period will be the interesting one.
- all 3 veterans will go
- Doc and Schoenmakers are free agents and the Club is happy for them to explore options
- don't think any of Breust, Gunners, Shiels or Rioli are traded given contract lengths

Does the Club trade to get back in the draft and full rebuild? Or seek a FA and try to get back up the ladder again

 

[Pessimistic]

How our list breaks down with age at years end

Shaun Burgoyne (35)
Josh Gibson (33)
Luke Hodge (33)
Jarryd Roughead (30)
Paul Puopolo (30)

Grant Birchall (29)
Ricky Henderson (29)
James Frawley (29)
Isaac Smith (29)
Ben Stratton (28)
Cyril Rioli (28)
Ben McEvoy (28)

Brendan Whitecross (27)
Ty Vickery (27)
Luke Breust (27)
Ryan Schoenmakers (27)
Jonathon Ceglar (26)
Taylor Duryea (26)
Liam Shiels (26)
Jack Gunston (26)
Jack Fitzpatrick (26)

Will Langford (25)
Tom Mitchell (24)
Jaeger O'Meara (23)
Jonathan O'Rourke (23)
Tim O'Brien (23)
Kaiden Brand (23)
Billy Hartung (22)
Kurt Heatherley (22)
Daniel Howe (22)
James Sicily (22)
Dallas Willsmore (21)
Teia Miles (21)
Marc Pittonet (21)
Ryan Burton (20)
Kieran Lovell (20)
Blake Hardwick (20)
Kade Stewart (20)
Luke Surman (20)
Conor Glass (20)
Harry Morrison (19)
Oliver Hanrahan (19)
James Cousins (19)
Mitchell Lewis (19)
Conor Nash (19)

Thoughts?

Therell be 32 players age 30 or under in 2019 and by 2022 there'll still be 20. Of course there will be changes - at least 15mandatedb by AFL

 

[Breustiful]

Yes. The writing is on the wall.

 

[Pessimistic]

If we dont get free agents in, and lose a couple - depending on their salaries there may be an end of first round compo pick - just look what freo got for a non goal kicking forward.

perhaps if there no superstar free agent, role playing free agents may come in 2018 or 2019

 

[Pessimistic]

We should be in one but we're in a bit of denial at the moment.

The meaning of "catastrophic" will tell us a lot about what we think.

Sorry but I'm not wearing the pain of Mitchell and Lewis running round in different colours to be told the club is in denial

 

[OzJohnnie]

We should be in one but we're in a bit of denial at the moment.

The meaning of "catastrophic" will tell us a lot about what we think.

By "we" do you mean the BF community of fans and supporters or do you mean the club?

 

[Roughies Boys]

Pessimistic imagine if we had that Heath Shaw player but we didn't realize? Like Harry Morrison

 

[MrPremiership]

By "we" do you mean the BF community of fans and supporters or do you mean the club?

As i posted above, I think the Club was hedging its bets pre-season and thought we would be more competitive than we are. Sort of looks like an express rebuild.

If we were in full rebuild mode, which we may be as of today, then the Club is busy planning for a respectful way to end the careers of Gibson, Hodge and Burgoyne, and also trying every kid on the list (Willsmore, Heatherley, etc).

This weeks changes will tell us more

 

[Roughies Boys]

As i posted above, I think the Club was hedging its bets pre-season and thought we would be more competitive than we are. Sort of looks like an express rebuild.

If we were in full rebuild mode, which we may be as of today, then the Club is busy planning for a respectful way to end the careers of Gibson, Hodge and Burgoyne, and also trying every kid on the list (Willsmore, Heatherley, etc).

This weeks changes will tell us more

I'm sure we would be very competitive... has anyone forgotten about our first half against Adelaide?

 

[MrPremiership]

I'm sure we would be very competitive... has anyone forgotten about our first half against Adelaide?

Which was exceptionally good half of footy. But the other 5.5 games haven't been amazing.

 

[MrPremiership]

Sorry but I'm not wearing the pain of Mitchell and Lewis running round in different colours to be told the club is in denial

Hurts every Hawks supporter to see it, and might be seeing it for a while. Lewis signed a 3 year deal and Mitch doesn't look to be slowing down.

But those trades are only half the story.

 

[Roughies Boys]

Which was exceptionally good half of footy. But the other 5.5 games haven't been amazing.

Yes it sure was, we showed that kind of competitiveness against Geelong in the Pre-Season cup also. I think we our team selection has been way off. Obviously Birch didn't help being injured, but in the midfield of a O'Meara who is struggling to play an outside game due to fitness & a Langford who can't kick & a Shiels who can't really kick either, we have no one with some class or accurate kicking. We've gone from being one of the best efficient kicking teams to the worse & our team selection isn't helping having Hartung, Langford & Shiels running around in there all together

 

[nickrebellious]

This all suggests to me that the club was hedging its bets or trying an express rebuild.

This years trade period will be the interesting one.
- all 3 veterans will go
- Doc and Schoenmakers are free agents and the Club is happy for them to explore options
- don't think any of Breust, Gunners, Shiels or Rioli are traded given contract lengths

Does the Club trade to get back in the draft and full rebuild? Or seek a FA and try to get back up the ladder again

I think there's no way we'll be able to out draft clubs. Teams like Carlton, GWS, Melbourne and St Kilda are way too far ahead of us on that front.

We're going to have to attack teams with trading and free agency. Trade next years pick for another 21-23 year old gun. Sign free agents. Identify kids on other teams lists and get them cheap like clubs did with Ahern, Nankervis, Hoskin-Elliott, Pickett, Marchbank, Hrovat, Steele last year.