Racing August Daily Punt: Equine birthday party month

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Sarcoidevo said:
Yeah not great .... taken back and couldn't make ground .... the track was pretty firm and looked a quick deck and no horses made ground on the leaders ...... maybe she would be happier with a bit of give as well .... her 1st up record is fairly meh anyway ... but not the start they were probably looking for
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You hear a lot about tracks with leaders biases -- what's the actual mechanism behind this? My guess was that something to do with the ground means that there is a limitation on the top speed of a horse so all horses are running more or less similar speeds at the end of the race, meaning horses can't make up ground. Or is it more tempo related -- like if all horses are going slow for the first 1400m then in the last 600m they can all sprint at pretty similar speeds? But then I thought that fast tempos in Hong Kong led to small margins in the finishes so sounds like I have it the wrong way around?
 
noffle said:
You hear a lot about tracks with leaders biases -- what's the actual mechanism behind this? My guess was that something to do with the ground means that there is a limitation on the top speed of a horse so all horses are running more or less similar speeds at the end of the race, meaning horses can't make up ground. Or is it more tempo related -- like if all horses are going slow for the first 1400m then in the last 600m they can all sprint at pretty similar speeds? But then I thought that fast tempos in Hong Kong led to small margins in the finishes so sounds like I have it the wrong way around?
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Can be both - on Sunday they crawled and VE was a long way back - when they go slow at the start most horses can go fast at the end - making it physically impossible for those at the back of the field to run fast enough to over take them.

The alternative is Flemington in the Goodie days where the part of the track next to the rail is very firm - and the rest of the track is softer - in this instance it is impossible to over take the horses up on the pace because you have to move out into the slower ground to overtake them.
 
iluvparis said:
Can be both - on Sunday they crawled and VE was a long way back - when they go slow at the start most horses can go fast at the end - making it physically impossible for those at the back of the field to run fast enough to over take them.

The alternative is Flemington in the Goodie days where the part of the track next to the rail is very firm - and the rest of the track is softer - in this instance it is impossible to over take the horses up on the pace because you have to move out into the slower ground to overtake them.
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Are the two related in the sense that it's hard to push the tempo up if there's a rail bias because you don't want to move to the outside? Otherwise wouldn't it be in the best interests of midfield and backmarker horses to apply some pressure mid-race?
 
noffle said:
Are the two related in the sense that it's hard to push the tempo up if there's a rail bias because you don't want to move to the outside? Otherwise wouldn't it be in the best interests of midfield and backmarker horses to apply some pressure mid-race?
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Yes but in doing so they are a) caught wide on our tight turning tracks and b) have to go into the slower ground to put on that pressure thus wasting extra energy
 

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noffle said:
You hear a lot about tracks with leaders biases -- what's the actual mechanism behind this? My guess was that something to do with the ground means that there is a limitation on the top speed of a horse so all horses are running more or less similar speeds at the end of the race, meaning horses can't make up ground. Or is it more tempo related -- like if all horses are going slow for the first 1400m then in the last 600m they can all sprint at pretty similar speeds? But then I thought that fast tempos in Hong Kong led to small margins in the finishes so sounds like I have it the wrong way around?
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I remember a podcast or interview or something with Dom Beirne and he was of opinion that defining and explaining leader bias is one of the greater punting difficulties in modern era.

Rails and lanes are easy and also predictable.

Pure leader bias is a function of margin and closing speed. I’m not dumb enough to think I know exactly what it is but I find it most prevelant with leaders having assistance via wind or track cond early in race and resistance in the straight for those reeling them back in.

Tl;dr outside factors that work like a slow tempo.

Also correction, small margins are more common in light tempo races. Most people see small margins as a poor race but in some cases they can be good form races.
 
Tofane always a good bet in these early tweener races. Snapdancer and Blood should get good runs over a suitable trip with that residual QLD fitness too. Don't think you miss playing your exotics around them
 
Jugada said:
Tofane always a good bet in these early tweener races. Snapdancer and Blood should get good runs over a suitable trip with that residual QLD fitness too. Don't think you miss playing your exotics around them
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Reckon that Queensland form will be found out as fraudulent and both are gross unders - particularly Snappy now she has to face some proper horses.

Tofane, WE and Cascadian look the most likely winners to me and the great mare might be the only one of those put into the race. $8 still a huge price.
 
iluvparis said:
Reckon that Queensland form will be found out as fraudulent and both are gross unders - particularly Snappy now she has to face some proper horses.

Tofane, WE and Cascadian look the most likely winners to me and the great mare might be the only one of those put into the race. $8 still a huge price.
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You said that last year then Tofane dominated.. it will be the same this year, the Sydney autumn form is the fraudulent form unless the tracks are heavy 10s all spring. Forbidden Love is already gone and Mazu will be the next to be found out. AB will be the best WFA horse of the spring, but i am not backing it in the Memsie because how can it possibly be fit when they had no idea what the prep was going to be.
 
HeathComeBack said:
You said that last year then Tofane dominated.. it will be the same this year, the Sydney autumn form is the fraudulent form unless the tracks are heavy 10s all spring. Forbidden Love is already gone and Mazu will be the next to be found out. AB will be the best WFA horse of the spring, but i am not backing it in the Memsie because how can it possibly be fit when they had no idea what the prep was going to be.
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Didn’t tofane get belted by SA has beens Behemoth and Beau Rossa in the memsie before going on to win a grand total of 0 races in a dominant spring ?
 
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