Europe Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread:

Europe - War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/backdrop-to-the-war-in-ukraine.1302028/ If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[The Warlord]

Where did Zelensky touch you?

He touched my piano with his penis.

I didn't realise he only started learning Ukranian in 2019 as an election stunt.

He's a native Russian speaker.

 

[Blue1980]

Blue1980 says he she wants WW3

Lol, so just let Russia do what the like cos nukes?

Other countries would see this as a green light as well.

Also another tip, they wont use nukes, mutually assured destruction and all that. There is a reason no one has used them in conflict since 1945.

Doesn't matter how you slice it, you're a Russia apologist and happy for them to do whatever they like.

 

[Blue1980]

He touched my piano with his penis.

I didn't realise he only started learning Ukranian in 2019 as an election stunt.

He's a native Russian speaker.

Just come out and say you want Ukraine to just fall over and give themselves to Russia.

Everything else is window dressing for you and Green Hammer.

 

[Millky95]

Lol, so just let Russia do what the like cos nukes?

Other countries would see this as a green light as well.

Also another tip, they wont use nukes, mutually assured destruction and all that. There is a reason no one has used them in conflict since 1945.

Doesn't matter how you slice it, you're a Russia apologist and happy for them to do whatever they like.

Nukes are like Christmas Cards, send one, you get one back

 

[Zidane98]

I didn't say they were. I was merely pointing out that the position some have that giving up ground... not one inch (sound familiar?), or expecting others to adhere to it, is the stance of a fool.

Provided it receives enough in aid to stay combat-ready, yes. Prior to Western intervention, it was working quite well.

I wouldn't go so far as to say he's "happy" about it. And both sides are desperate for propaganda victories, the only difference is in which bowl you lap from when they present you with them.

Thing is, Russia has used this sort of tactic for a very long time to great effect - it won them a war once, if I recall correctly. Probably would have won them this one too, if all things had remained equal.

I think they're currently learning on the fly that they made a big mistake in thinking Ukraine would have to stand on its own, and they're slowly adjusting to that. Whether that is too slowly or not, time will tell.


Unsuccessful commanders (or, to be more precise, commanders who weren't as successful as the politicians expected them to be) have a long history of being demoted, replaced, or gotten rid of in many other ways. Other times, the exact opposite happens - they're promoted upwards or sideways, and left to sink or swim on their own recognizance. I would not be surprised at all if Surovkin was found incapacitated in some way soon - nor would I be surprised if he is given a different command, or takes a different career path.

Which war was that it won? Russia has fought only the Chechen, Georgian & Ukranian wars in its history. Don't think there's been any real wins for Putin in any of those.

What do you mean by all things equal? Russian military forces outnumber Ukraine 5-1. Belarus also assist them, let them use their territory to attack Ukraine. Yet they've been going backwards for months. The balance of power in this war is tilted heavily in Russia's favor and they are still failing. I may add that Poland have indicated that they will join Ukraine in defending their neighbor eventually if the war persists. They would be justified in doing so as the risk that Russia poses by invading Ukraine is very high to them.

Do you really think that Russia believed it would be able to invade a sovereign nation without a legitimate reason and expect no support for Ukraine from European allies? How deluded can Putin be to believe that?


This war will never be won by Russia, that much is obvious. There's too much at stake for the security of Europe and Russia are unable to win even with Ukraine fighting on its own. I predict once Poland says enough is enough Russia will be defeated in a matter of months.

 

[Episode IV]

With the old Soviet material and (with a few exceptions like HIMARS), mostly the excess/older/out of date Western materials they've had Russia pulling T-62's out of storage and afraid to fly in Ukraine skies. Surely even the most ardent Russian apologists can see the Soviet/Russian equipment is inferior to the Western equipment. Which given this, the Russians of course are bringing out the 'I don't want to mention Nukes, but look at this fine Nuke, yep, it's a fine Nuke, Nuke, Nuke, who mentioned Nukes? We have lots of Nukes, but everyone knows we have the best Nukes, so no need to mention Nukes' regularly. Every time so far Western equipment against Soviet, it's been the Ukrainians by plenty. Get Western tanks (and ideally Western Aircraft) in there in enough numbers and the Russians get rolled back across the borders.

It's the "in enough numbers" part which is problematic. The west, America in particular, having been making it clear that there are several reasons they can neither escalate nor continue in the long run to provide more materiel.
There are issues with stockpiles running low in the case of ammunition and in some of the more hi-tech weaponry. There are issues with training times regarding the use of those weapons. You can't just send F-35's, or even older model aircraft, to Ukraine and expect them to be operational in a matter of days.
There is no experience, as yet, with how western aircraft (in particular) will perform in the current Ukrainian conditions. They will need support, both in terms of ammunition and ground support in general.
Missiles and ammunition are one thing; more complicated weaponry another entirely.

All of these things have been covered, most often by the Western powers involved. It's just not that simple.

And as an aside, although it has already been put out there before, with regards to the nukes... beware the cornered animal. If Russia makes the decision it is actually fighting NATO, and if it feels threatened to the point where their future is lost, then there's no telling what might happen.

Russia is an empire over a thousand years old, Ukraine a country created by the Germans a barely a hundred years ago. When Russia complains it has been pushed around by the West for a very long time, and its feeling cornered to this day and subjected to Western values and economic terms, it has a point, and that Ukraine itself only exists as a sovereign nation because someone drew a line on a map a century ago and (due to the Bolshevik revolution at the time) Russia wasn't strong enough to take back - even after the western allies rescinded the provisions of the Brest-Litovsk treaty, except of course when it came to giving anything back to the Russians that they'd lost as a result of it. The West sent soldiers in to keep Russia down.

It's not a matter of whether or not you agree with their position, their version of history, or their moral values. Those are facts, as the Russians see them.
It's a matter of whether or not Russia feels it might lose everything.
That's what you need to be afraid of.

 

[The Warlord]

The only peace deals will be a full withdraw of Russia from Ukraine or the complete and unconditional surrender of Ukraine.

Neither of these will happen.

 

[The Warlord]

even after the western allies rescinded the provisions of the Brest-Litovsk treaty, except of course when it came to giving anything back to the Russians that they'd lost as a result of it. The West sent soldiers in to keep Russia down.

I wonder how many of the scholars of this thread know that Australians fought the Red Army in 1919 in places like Archangel.

 

[Blue1980]

The Ukranian side is so shrill and hysterical. It demands complete and unquestioning fealty and as soon as they feel someone is voicing another opinion they're labelled an enemy.

It's indicative of wider Ukranian mindet which is that of a peasant society. The village and clan are as far as the Ukranian mental horizon extends.

It's why Ukraine was the land of the pogrom and endless communal violence against those like Jews and Roma deemed outside the protection of the clan.

Rest assured I'm encouraged to be considered an enemy by the increasingly psychotic pro Bandera Ukranian side.

I note the Israelis are also unwilling to assist Ukraine for much ghe same reason.

Seems you just want to be contrary, and confusing that for independent balanced thought.

I don't think anyone claims being anti Russia and pro Ukraine in this conflict means we all think Ukraine is perfect. There is a much bigger picture at play to why its important to defend Ukraine and ensure they defeat the Russians. The net gain for the rest of the world (assuming one likes democracy) is quite large for a Ukraine victory, but a Russian victory get us into merky territory, with dictatorships around the world being emboldened.

I think you know all this, and just want Russia to win. Which you can want, but just say thats what you want!

 

[Blue1980]

Was there a roster mix up or something? Usually you only get one pro Russian on here at a time but now there two of the clowns.

Felt they needed the extra reinforement. Maybe one is in training?

 

[Zidane98]

It's the "in enough numbers" part which is problematic. The west, America in particular, having been making it clear that there are several reasons they can neither escalate nor continue in the long run to provide more materiel.
There are issues with stockpiles running low in the case of ammunition and in some of the more hi-tech weaponry. There are issues with training times regarding the use of those weapons. You can't just send F-35's, or even older model aircraft, to Ukraine and expect them to be operational in a matter of days.
There is no experience, as yet, with how western aircraft (in particular) will perform in the current Ukrainian conditions. They will need support, both in terms of ammunition and ground support in general.
Missiles and ammunition are one thing; more complicated weaponry another entirely.

All of these things have been covered, most often by the Western powers involved. It's just not that simple.

And as an aside, although it has already been put out there before, with regards to the nukes... beware the cornered animal. If Russia makes the decision it is actually fighting NATO, and if it feels threatened to the point where their future is lost, then there's no telling what might happen.

Russia is an empire over a thousand years old, Ukraine a country created by the Germans a barely a hundred years ago. When Russia complains it has been pushed around by the West for a very long time, and its feeling cornered to this day and subjected to Western values and economic terms, it has a point, and that Ukraine itself only exists as a sovereign nation because someone drew a line on a map a century ago and (due to the Bolshevik revolution at the time) Russia wasn't strong enough to take back - even after the western allies rescinded the provisions of the Brest-Litovsk treaty, except of course when it came to giving anything back to the Russians that they'd lost as a result of it. The West sent soldiers in to keep Russia down.

It's not a matter of whether or not you agree with their position, their version of history, or their moral values. Those are facts, as the Russians see them.
It's a matter of whether or not Russia feels it might lose everything.
That's what you need to be afraid of.

I'll be pretty blunt. Most of this is bullshit pro Russian propaganda.


The Russian empire is not a thousand years old. It was born out of the Grand Duchy of Moscow 520 years ago. Since then it has expanded many times.

The Kievan Rus is where modern day Ukraine dates back to. Back then Moscow was just a marshland with nothing. Ukranian language and culture dates back to this time even if the borders have changed many times (as have many countries across Europe). I see you have been quoting Putin's deluded history research.

Russia does not have a point re: being pushed around by the west. Infact, the west actively helped the Russians rebuild the country in the 90s and 00's after communism left it in a terrible state. Most European nations want to trade with Russia and have a strong relationship but not if Russia continues to be aggressive towards its neighbors.

There are no threats to Russia today. The facts are on NATO's newest border with Russia (Finnish border) Putin is actively removing military resources from there and relocating them to Ukraine. This simply would not be the case if there were actually any real fears of NATO action. Remember, Russia agreed as part of taking the USSR's seat as permanent representative on the UNSC that it would respect sovereignty of all its neighbors. It further signed another agreement with Ukraine & the US in exchange for Ukraine turning over its nuclear arsenal and military hardware on the basis that Russia respects the sovereignty of Ukraine.

And the last line, the good old implied nuclear threat. Sorry to tell you but the Russians are not going to resort to using nukes, even they aren't that dumb. Putin himself recently had to come out publicly (after getting a dressing down by old mate Xi) that Russia "are not crazy" and confirmed that he won't be the first to launch a nuke.

 

[Episode IV]

Which war was that it won? Russia has fought only the Chechen, Georgian & Ukranian wars in its history. Don't think there's been any real wins for Putin in any of those.

World war 2 comes to mind, although if you decide that the Soviet Union wasn't really Russia you could claim that I suppose.

What do you mean by all things equal?

Prior to Western Intervention. Obviously.

Russian military forces outnumber Ukraine 5-1. Belarus also assist them, let them use their territory to attack Ukraine. Yet they've been going backwards for months. The balance of power in this war is tilted heavily in Russia's favor and they are still failing. I may add that Poland have indicated that they will eventually join Ukraine in defending their neighbor eventually if the war persists. They would be justified in doing so as the risk that Russia poses by invading Ukraine is very high to them.

Haven't you just spent a considerable amount of time detailing the superiority of western weaponry? There is nothing else keeping Ukraine afloat at this point, and nothing else (well, apart from sundry support in the form of food and medical) preventing Russian victory. Granted, full subjugation of Ukraine would likely have taken considerably longer than first expected even without it, but I have little doubt that Ukraine would have capitulated long before now without it.

Also, I think too much is being made of the domino theory. Its been proven in the past to be paranoia, gotten several nations involved in wars they should never have been involved in. There's very little sense to the argument that Russia will turn around and take NATO on if they succeed in Ukraine. Its an argument, to be honest, that you could only buy into if you believe all the "Putin is insane" propaganda to begin with. I don't think he is.
Ukraine is not a member of NATO. Everyone else is, though, in spite of western reassurances that would not be the case, and there's another reason Russia is beginning to behave like a cornered animal.

Do you really think that Russia believed it would be able to invade a sovereign nation without a legitimate reason and expect no support for Ukraine from European allies? How deluded can Putin be to believe that?

The question was not whether or not Ukraine would receive support - its one of what form that support would take.

This war will never be won by Russia, that much is obvious. There's too much at stake for the security of Europe and Russia are unable to win even with Ukraine fighting on its own. I predict once Poland says enough is enough Russia will be defeated in a matter of months.

It's not the security of Europe that's at stake. It's the security of Western financial and economic systems over which America has Hegemony and with which Europe is heavily invested.
BRICS was a recent crack in that armour, and its garnering support. The disenfranchised are forming alliances.

I'm simply stating what should be obvious to everyone once you get past the rhetoric, the propaganda, and the good guy/bad guy mentality.

As to Poland - I'd imagine the rest of NATO is very quietly trying to get them to shut up, right now.

 

[Episode IV]

I wonder how many of the scholars of this thread know that Australians fought the Red Army in 1919 in places like Archangel.

Volunteers, too. No conscripts.

 

[The Warlord]

Volunteers, too. No conscripts.

Brutal and sustained fighting, Victoria Crosses won.

 

[Andre]

And as an aside, although it has already been put out there before, with regards to the nukes... beware the cornered animal. If Russia makes the decision it is actually fighting NATO, and if it feels threatened to the point where their future is lost, then there's no telling what might happen.

No leader in the West or even Ukraine has said they want to go into Russia and overthrow Putin / destroy the country. Putin is well aware of this. The threats of WW3 are hyperbole. Unless Putin has decided he wants to go out by destroying humanity, then escalating to attacking any NATO country (or other under the US nuclear umbrella) is not going to happen. Even with his delusions, seeing his 'mighty' army still bogged down in Ukraine after almost a year, with lots of the Wests 'best toys' not even in play, he's not stupid enough to pick a fight with forces with 100's of stealth fighters and bombers, that could largely roam unhindered all of all his forces. That's leaving aside all the superior ground forces including enough HIMARS and similar weapons, not restricted to the shorter ranges, to hit Moscow and St. Petersburg, leaving them full of smoking holes, without even leaving NATO territory.

Even the 'least worst bad case' of he decides to use a Tactical nuke, then where? Hit Kyiv and create a martyr? Even if the West didn't intervene directly, the gloves would be off and Ukraine would be hitting Russian cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg. The only way Putin comes out ahead at all in this, is if the West gives in to his empty threats or tires of supporting Ukraine. The latter is all he's really hoping for, that he can trade enough prisoners and conscripts lives for time, for more Western fatigue.

 

[Millky95]

Neither of these will happen.

What results do you seem possible and most likely? And why?

 

[Zidane98]

World war 2 comes to mind, although if you decide that the Soviet Union wasn't really Russia you could claim that I suppose.

Prior to Western Intervention. Obviously.

Haven't you just spent a considerable amount of time detailing the superiority of western weaponry? There is nothing else keeping Ukraine afloat at this point, and nothing else (well, apart from sundry support in the form of food and medical) preventing Russian victory. Granted, full subjugation of Ukraine would likely have taken considerably longer than first expected even without it, but I have little doubt that Ukraine would have capitulated long before now without it.

Also, I think too much is being made of the domino theory. Its been proven in the past to be paranoia, gotten several nations involved in wars they should never have been involved in. There's very little sense to the argument that Russia will turn around and take NATO on if they succeed in Ukraine. Its an argument, to be honest, that you could only buy into if you believe all the "Putin is insane" propaganda to begin with. I don't think he is.
Ukraine is not a member of NATO. Everyone else is, though, in spite of western reassurances that would not be the case, and there's another reason Russia is beginning to behave like a cornered animal.

The question was not whether or not Ukraine would receive support - its one of what form that support would take.

It's not the security of Europe that's at stake. It's the security of Western financial and economic systems over which America has Hegemony and with which Europe is heavily invested.
BRICS was a recent crack in that armour, and its garnering support. The disenfranchised are forming alliances.

I'm simply stating what should be obvious to everyone once you get past the rhetoric, the propaganda, and the good guy/bad guy mentality.

As to Poland - I'd imagine the rest of NATO is very quietly trying to get them to shut up, right now.

Russia clearly is not the USSR. The red army was made up of many Ukranians, Kazakhs etc. The USSR also were Nazi collaborators until they doubled crossed them.


BRICS - hahaha. China will always value its trading relationship with the US greater than its relationship with Russia which extends as far as using Russia to buy cheap resources because it can't sell them anywhere else. China refuses to accept Russian maritime insurance for oil tankers, that's how little they support Russia. India have drastically reduced oil imports recently as well. Brazil & South Africa are basket cases.

NATO excuse is crap and you know it. Countries join NATO only because of Russian aggression. NATO are not going to be attacking Russia at all, at any time. Russia are not cornered at all. Putin could withdraw and respect the budapest memorandum and Russia would thrive economically with close links to Europe. Instead, he chooses war because he wants to expand the Russian empire. That's what it comes down to, nothing more or less.

Putin is insane is not propaganda at all. It is clear in his speeches about the war and the justifications for the war. These are not the ramblings of a smart or level headed person. It is for that reason his only positive support comes from other deranged pscyhopaths like Kim Jong, Assad & Lukashenko.

 

[Blue1980]

I'll be pretty blunt. Most of this is bullshit pro Russian propaganda.


The Russian empire is not a thousand years old. It was born out of the Grand Duchy of Moscow 520 years ago. Since then it has expanded many times.

The Kievan Rus is where modern day Ukraine dates back to. Back then Moscow was just a marshland with nothing. Ukranian language and culture dates back to this time even if the borders have changed many times (as have many countries across Europe). I see you have been quoting Putin's deluded history research.

Russia does not have a point re: being pushed around by the west. Infact, the west actively helped the Russians rebuild the country in the 90s and 00's after communism left it in a terrible state. Most European nations want to trade with Russia and have a strong relationship but not if Russia continues to be aggressive towards its neighbors.

There are no threats to Russia today. The facts are on NATO's newest border with Russia (Finnish border) Putin is actively removing military resources from there and relocating them to Ukraine. This simply would not be the case if there were actually any real fears of NATO action. Remember, Russia agreed as part of taking the USSR's seat as permanent representative on the UNSC that it would respect sovereignty of all its neighbors. It further signed another agreement with Ukraine & the US in exchange for Ukraine turning over its nuclear arsenal and military hardware on the basis that Russia respects the sovereignty of Ukraine.

And the last line, the good old implied nuclear threat. Sorry to tell you but the Russians are not going to resort to using nukes, even they aren't that dumb. Putin himself recently had to come out publicly (after getting a dressing down by old mate Xi) that Russia "are not crazy" and confirmed that he won't be the first to launch a nuke.

Thing is, if Russia did use any sort of nukes, America wouldn't have to retaliate with nukes to obliterate their whole army and navy off the map.

The military capability of the US over Russia is many multitudes greater in technology, strategy and intelligence.

I know these pro Russia simps are basically trolls, but for those like Green Hammer saying we want WW3 by wanting Ukraine to defend itself, why are Russia poking the bear knowing western world/NATO/US's military capacity with nukes, aren't they provoking world war 3?

 

[The Warlord]

I'm simply stating what should be obvious to everyone once you get past the rhetoric, the propaganda, and the good guy/bad guy mentality.

There is no desire or indeed intellectual ability to do this among the vast majority of posters on these threads.

In fact, any attempt to do so is shouted down as "Pro Russian", usually along with a series of misguided racist insults.

This is what I mean about the peasant mentality of the hardcore Ukranian Nationalists.

It's thinking that glories in its anti intellectualism and binary aggressive world view.

"Just admit you want Russia to win".

It's the thinking of the pogrom, of the belief in gypsy curses.

 

[Zidane98]

Thing is, if Russia did use any sort of nukes, America wouldn't have to retaliate with nukes to obliterate their whole army and navy off the map.

The military capability of the US over Russia is many multitudes greater in technology, strategy and intelligence.

I know these pro Russia simps are basically trolls, but for those like Green Hammer saying we want WW3 by wanting Ukraine to defend itself, why are Russia poking the bear knowing western world/NATO/US's military capacity with nukes, aren't they provoking world war 3?

Vatnik logic at work.

 

[Blue1980]

Russia clearly is not the USSR. The red army was made up of many Ukranians, Kazakhs etc. The USSR also were Nazi collaborators until they doubled crossed them.


BRICS - hahaha. China will always value its trading relationship greater than its relationship with Russia which extends as far as using Russia to buy cheap resources because it can't sell them anywhere else. China refuses to accept Russian maritime insurance for oil tankers, that's how little they support Russia. India have drastically reduced oil imports recently as well. Brazil & South Africa are basket cases.

NATO excuse is crap and you know it. Countries join NATO only because of Russian aggression. NATO are not going to be attacking Russia at all, at any time. Russia are not cornered at all. Putin could withdraw and respect the budapest memorandum and Russia would thrive economically with close links to Europe. Instead, he chooses war because he wants to expand the Russian empire. That's what it comes down to, nothing more or less.

Putin is insane is not propaganda at all. It is clear in his speeches about the war and the justifications for the war. These are not the ramblings of a smart or level headed person. It is for that reason his only positive support comes from other deranged pscyhopaths like Kim Jong, Assad & Lukashenko.

The NATO excuse to me would be like if say the pacific islands and NZ created a group to support each other if any was attacked, and Australia wasn't in it. Then there were rumblings Papua New Guinea may join this group, so we attack them, then blame that pacific island/NZ group for provoking us.

 

[The Warlord]

What results do you seem possible and most likely? And why?

I think the Korean War is probably the best guide.

Armistice and division/partition without there being a formal peace.

A very heavily militarised border at the point of division that oscillates between warm and hot at different points and times.

 

[Zidane98]

As to Poland - I'd imagine the rest of NATO is very quietly trying to get them to shut up, right now.

Why would they want Poland to shut up? Poland's existence is threatened if Russia takes over Ukraine. NATO have no say over individual national security poilicy of member nations. Russia are already popping off cruise missiles at western Ukraine and there were deaths in Poland from an S300 missile fired at Russia's cruise missiles from Ukraine that fell in Poland.

Poland & Ukraine together are likely to finish off the Russians if it ever gets to that point.


Hopefully Putin prefers peace and prosperity by withdrawing completely from Ukraine as per the Budapest agreement in 1994.

 

[Zidane98]

I think the Korean War is probably the best guide.

Armistice and division/partition without there being a formal peace.

A very heavily militarised border at the point of division that oscillates between warm and hot at different points and times.

Not going to happen in this day and age tovarisch. The heavily militarised border will be the Russian/Ukraine border if anything. Ukraine have discussed building a permanent barrier on the entirety of the border to keep out invading Russians.

 

[Blue1980]

There is no desire or indeed intellectual ability to do this among the vast majority of posters on these threads.

In fact, any attempt to do so is shouted down as "Pro Russian", usually along with a series of misguided racist insults.

This is what I mean about the peasant mentality of the hardcore Ukranian Nationalists.

It's thinking that glories in its anti intellectualism and binary aggressive world view.

"Just admit you want Russia to win".

It's the thinking of the pogrom, of the belief in gypsy curses.

Err no, you want Ukraine to just rollover and Russia to waltz in, you think that would be better for the world.

Lol anti-intellectualism. You know what you are doing, trying to muddy the waters, point out faults in Ukraine, US, Western World etc so people just go "oh well all as bad as each other, we should really just stop helping and let Russia do what they like". Classic right wing tactic, try to gaslight, deflect, whataboutism, and just wear people down. The many uninformed will go "well I must take both sides into account".

Glad no one in here is falling for it.