Europe Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread:

Europe - War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/backdrop-to-the-war-in-ukraine.1302028/ If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Millky95]

I think the Korean War is probably the best guide.

Armistice and division/partition without there being a formal peace.

A very heavily militarised border at the point of division that oscillates between warm and hot at different points and times.

I don't see that happening because of how trigger happy Russia is to bomb civilian targets. Ukraine would keep pushing at this division back to the original boarder

 

[Millky95]

Why would they want Poland to shut up? Poland's existence is threatened if Russia takes over Ukraine. NATO have no say over individual national security poilicy of member nations. Russia are already popping off cruise missiles at western Ukraine and there were deaths in Poland from an S300 missile fired at Russia's cruise missiles from Ukraine that fell in Poland.

Poland & Ukraine together are likely to finish off the Russians if it ever gets to that point.


Hopefully Putin prefers peace and prosperity by withdrawing completely from Ukraine as per the Budapest agreement in 1994.

People forget NATO is a defensive pact. If Russia steps foot into Poland, NATO Article 5 triggers and Russia is at war with NATO. If Poland goes to send troops into Ukraine, no one in NATO has to join them or can stop them (I'm sure talks would have happened prior to this)

 

[Zidane98]

I don't see that happening because of how trigger happy Russia is to bomb civilian targets. Ukraine would keep pushing at this division back to the original boarder

Also it would require a brutal dictator with absolute control to run the place. There are no local candidates in Ukraine who would be willing to be Kim Jong un of East Ukraine.


It simply isn't going to happen.

 

[Blue1980]

People forget NATO is a defensive pact. If Russia steps foot into Poland, NATO Article 5 triggers and Russia is at war with NATO. If Poland goes to send troops into Ukraine, no one in NATO has to join them or can stop them (I'm sure talks would have happened prior to this)

Everyone knows its a defensive pact. Even the Russians, Tucker Carlson and the deadenders in this thread. NATO just a BS excuse they use.

 

[Zidane98]

People forget NATO is a defensive pact. If Russia steps foot into Poland, NATO Article 5 triggers and Russia is at war with NATO. If Poland goes to send troops into Ukraine, no one in NATO has to join them or can stop them (I'm sure talks would have happened prior to this)

Yep. NATO will only get involved if Putin & co are stupid enough to attack Polish territory. Nothing he can do about Polish army helping out Ukraine in Ukraine apart from fight them (and most likely lose anyway). In any case he has rapists, mercenaries and prisoners from overseas fighting on his side so can't have any complaints.

On Putin's side he may get some troops from Belarus but they will be pretty useless. Not sure how many troops Kim Jong can send him or if that's even an option.

 

[Millky95]

Yep. NATO will only get involved if Putin & co are stupid enough to attack Polish territory. Nothing he can do about Polish army helping out Ukraine. In any case he had rapists, mercenaries and prisoners from overseas fighting on his side so can't have any complaints.

On Putin's side he may get some troops from Belarus but they will be pretty useless. Not sure how many troops Kim Jong can send him or if that's even an option.

I can see Poland getting involved outside of aid if Belarus formally gets involved. Poland would push and take Belarus then move to support Ukraine positions

I say this an armchair private

 

[Aussie in exile]

Actually, there are several examples of where giving up ground (in this case, a major city) in order to pursue a more strategic goal was either done, or should have been.

I suppose the most pertinent one would be the Battle of Stalingrad in 1943, given it involved Russia as well and remains ingrained on the psyches of all involved (and of those who weren't).
If, for the sake of argument, the Germans had not made such a big deal of it to the point where hundreds of thousands were lost on both sides when good sense gave way to hubris, the entire war may have had a very different outcome.

I'm not making any direct comparisons here, not assuming I know what or how the Russians are thinking, nor am I defending any one in particular; I'm cynical enough not to trust the assertations of either side as to how 'the war is going" in either a tactical or strategic sense.
I'm just pointing out that it's probably worthwhile gaining some knowledge of matters you're discussing before you start calling other people stupid. Glass houses, and all that.

Remind us how Stalin rewarded the defenders of Stalingrad?

 

[Aussie in exile]

It's the "in enough numbers" part which is problematic. The west, America in particular, having been making it clear that there are several reasons they can neither escalate nor continue in the long run to provide more materiel.
There are issues with stockpiles running low in the case of ammunition and in some of the more hi-tech weaponry. There are issues with training times regarding the use of those weapons. You can't just send F-35's, or even older model aircraft, to Ukraine and expect them to be operational in a matter of days.
There is no experience, as yet, with how western aircraft (in particular) will perform in the current Ukrainian conditions. They will need support, both in terms of ammunition and ground support in general.
Missiles and ammunition are one thing; more complicated weaponry another entirely.

All of these things have been covered, most often by the Western powers involved. It's just not that simple.

And as an aside, although it has already been put out there before, with regards to the nukes... beware the cornered animal. If Russia makes the decision it is actually fighting NATO, and if it feels threatened to the point where their future is lost, then there's no telling what might happen.

Russia is an empire over a thousand years old, Ukraine a country created by the Germans a barely a hundred years ago. When Russia complains it has been pushed around by the West for a very long time, and its feeling cornered to this day and subjected to Western values and economic terms, it has a point, and that Ukraine itself only exists as a sovereign nation because someone drew a line on a map a century ago and (due to the Bolshevik revolution at the time) Russia wasn't strong enough to take back - even after the western allies rescinded the provisions of the Brest-Litovsk treaty, except of course when it came to giving anything back to the Russians that they'd lost as a result of it. The West sent soldiers in to keep Russia down.

It's not a matter of whether or not you agree with their position, their version of history, or their moral values. Those are facts, as the Russians see them.
It's a matter of whether or not Russia feels it might lose everything.
That's what you need to be afraid of.

If Russia hadn't illegally invaded Ukraine it wouldn't have to worry about these problems

 

[Zidane98]

So far we have had today in this thread:


- Ukraine isn't a real nation. Russia is and has been around for 1000 years

- But what about Iraq?

- But what about Russia using its nukes?

- NATO are to blame for surrounding Russia

- NATO promised to never expand

- Ukraine are a bunch of peasants with no real culture

- Ukraine will be divided into two like North / South Korea for eternity

- Ukraine is full of Nazis

- Russia pulling out of major cities when they are invading is really a clever win by Russian military




Seems like those over at the internet research agency are working overtime.

 

[Blue1980]

So far we have had today in this thread:


- Ukraine isn't a real nation. Russia is and has been around for 1000 years

- But what about Iraq?

- But what about Russia using its nukes?

- NATO are to blame for surrounding Russia

- NATO promised to never expand

- Ukraine are a bunch of peasants with no real culture

- Ukraine will be divided into two like North / South Korea for eternity

- Ukraine is full of Nazis

- Russia pulling out of major cities when they are invading is really a clever win by Russian military




Seems like those over at the internet research agency are working overtime.

It’s like a greatest hits of Russian propaganda.

Next tactics are then accusing everyone else of shutting down debate, playing victim, accusations of racism, random other whataboutism etc

 

[Zidane98]

Going by #Vatnik logic Russian federation exists only because of an arbitrary line drawn on maps after the dissolution of the USSR in 1991.

 

[Aussie in exile]

It's the "in enough numbers" part which is problematic. The west, America in particular, having been making it clear that there are several reasons they can neither escalate nor continue in the long run to provide more materiel.
There are issues with stockpiles running low in the case of ammunition and in some of the more hi-tech weaponry. There are issues with training times regarding the use of those weapons. You can't just send F-35's, or even older model aircraft, to Ukraine and expect them to be operational in a matter of days.
There is no experience, as yet, with how western aircraft (in particular) will perform in the current Ukrainian conditions. They will need support, both in terms of ammunition and ground support in general.
Missiles and ammunition are one thing; more complicated weaponry another entirely.

All of these things have been covered, most often by the Western powers involved. It's just not that simple.

And as an aside, although it has already been put out there before, with regards to the nukes... beware the cornered animal. If Russia makes the decision it is actually fighting NATO, and if it feels threatened to the point where their future is lost, then there's no telling what might happen.

Russia is an empire over a thousand years old, Ukraine a country created by the Germans a barely a hundred years ago. When Russia complains it has been pushed around by the West for a very long time, and its feeling cornered to this day and subjected to Western values and economic terms, it has a point, and that Ukraine itself only exists as a sovereign nation because someone drew a line on a map a century ago and (due to the Bolshevik revolution at the time) Russia wasn't strong enough to take back - even after the western allies rescinded the provisions of the Brest-Litovsk treaty, except of course when it came to giving anything back to the Russians that they'd lost as a result of it. The West sent soldiers in to keep Russia down.

It's not a matter of whether or not you agree with their position, their version of history, or their moral values. Those are facts, as the Russians see them.
It's a matter of whether or not Russia feels it might lose everything.
That's what you need to be afraid of.

Russia isn't an empire of over a thousand years old. It was part of the Mongol empire for nearly 300 years

MONGOLIAN LEGACY FOR RUSSIAN STATE | www.baabar.mn | ШилдÑг нийÑлÑлÑдийн клÑб

The greatest legacy that the Mongols handed over to Russia is the Russian governance system, and perhaps the global image of Russia as a nation.

www.baabar.mn

 

[Zidane98]

It’s like a greatest hits of Russian propaganda.

Next tactics are then accusing everyone else of shutting down debate, playing victim, accusations of racism, random other whataboutism etc

Russians usually accuse others of what they are guilty of themselves.

 

[Zidane98]

Russia isn't an empire of over a thousand years old. It was part of the Mongol empire for nearly 300 years

MONGOLIAN LEGACY FOR RUSSIAN STATE | www.baabar.mn | ШилдÑг нийÑлÑлÑдийн клÑб

The greatest legacy that the Mongols handed over to Russia is the Russian governance system, and perhaps the global image of Russia as a nation.

www.baabar.mn

Bingo. Give the Duchy of Moscow some credit though. Russia is just a bastardised country made up of those two empires. Some random arbitrary lines drawn on a map apparently.

 

[Zidane98]

I also feel the time is right for Turkey (as the successor state to the Ottoman empire) to retake Crimea back from Russia as it historically is Crimean Tartar and Crimean tartars suffer greatly at the invading colonialists from Russia. At least Ukranians respected the local indigenous population.

The Crimean Khanate made a big mistake relinquishing control over what was rightly theirs in 1783.


If Putin wants to quote historical precedents then he really should be doing the right thing and handing back Crimea to Erdogan if he truly believes in what he says.

If he doesn't well we know he was bullshitting all along.

 

[Zidane98]

Duchy of Lithuania also wants its territory back in South-West Russia too:

 

[Aussie in exile]

I also feel the time is right for Turkey (as the successor state to the Ottoman empire) to retake Crimea back from Russia as it historically is Crimean Tartar and Crimean tartars suffer greatly at the invading colonialists from Russia. At least Ukranians respected the local indigenous population.

The Crimean Khanate made a big mistake relinquishing control over what was rightly theirs in 1783.


If Putin wants to quote historical precedents then he really should be doing the right thing and handing back Crimea to Erdogan if he truly believes in what he says.

If he doesn't well we know he was bullshitting all along.

Putin is full of BS.

 

[The Warlord]

No leader in the West or even Ukraine has said they want to go into Russia and overthrow Putin / destroy the country.

Biden said in March 2022 "For Gods sake this man cannot remain in power."

We in the West have become so inured to deranged or mentally unfit people like Trump and Biden in the White House.

But when a US President says stuff like that, rhe Kremlin heard regime change

 

[Aussie in exile]

I also feel the time is right for Turkey (as the successor state to the Ottoman empire) to retake Crimea back from Russia as it historically is Crimean Tartar and Crimean tartars suffer greatly at the invading colonialists from Russia. At least Ukranians respected the local indigenous population.

The Crimean Khanate made a big mistake relinquishing control over what was rightly theirs in 1783.


If Putin wants to quote historical precedents then he really should be doing the right thing and handing back Crimea to Erdogan if he truly believes in what he says.

If he doesn't well we know he was bullshitting all along.

Perhaps why we are talking about reclaiming ancient lands China must be eyeing up it's former lands in Eastern Russia. I wonder how our Russian apologists would react to that

 

[Zidane98]

Biden said in March 2022 "For Gods sake this man cannot remain in power."

We in the West have become so inured to deranged or mentally unfit people like Trump and Biden in the White House.

But when a US President says stuff like that, rhe Kremlin heard regime change

He's just saying what any reasonable person believes. Anyone who tries an imperialist invasion in this day and age is clearly deluded. The rest of the world would say the same about Biden if the US attempted to take over Canada or re-take Cuba.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Biden said in March 2022 "For Gods sake this man cannot remain in power."

We in the West have become so inured to deranged or mentally unfit people like Trump and Biden in the White House.

But when a US President says stuff like that, rhe Kremlin heard regime change

You keep forgetting that it was Russia who illegally invaded Russia not the other way around

 

[Zidane98]

Perhaps why we are talking about reclaiming ancient lands China must be eyeing up it's former lands in Eastern Russia. I wonder how our Russian apologists would react to that

'This is our land,' China now claims Russia’s Vladivostok as part of its territory

The claims of China over Vladivostok in Russia are not limited to the state-owned media. Even Chinese diplomats have jumped in. Zhang Heqing, a.............

tfipost.com

 

[Aussie in exile]

'This is our land,' China now claims Russia’s Vladivostok as part of its territory

The claims of China over Vladivostok in Russia are not limited to the state-owned media. Even Chinese diplomats have jumped in. Zhang Heqing, a.............

tfipost.com

Problems are certainly mounting for Putin, and lets not forget the Islands that Russia stole from Japan at the end of the 2nd world war. I'm sure now with Putin and Russia weakened by the war in Ukraine Japan must be thinking of retaking them

 

[Jello_B]

I didn't say they're winning. They've been losing since 2014, since Russia is occupying their territory. But Russia's high-tide was when they were nearly in Kyiv nearly a year ago. Now they're nearly back to Donbas where they started (plus some parts of south-east Ukraine) and it looks like this is about as far back as Ukraine can push them.

The difference between 2022 and 2014 is the sanctions. Attrition is hitting Russia's economy hard in a structural way (will they ever sell as much oil and gas as they did last winter ever again?). Just as Ukraine can't sustain the loss of soldiers, Putin can't afford the Russian economy to fall much further over much longer. The regional funding cuts will start hitting ordinary Russians as winter deepens.

Ukraine is fighting for existence and has the financial/economic backing of the rest of Europe, so they're not going to starve and will be able to finance their rebuilding eventually, when it happens.

Russians laugh at sanctions and will continue to do so. Sure, there will be a modern collective that miss their access to LVH, but the resolve of the masses will outweigh this. It’s a crap situation, and I’ll maintain my position that there needs to be a peace agreement asap (yes Ukraine will lose land, yes Ukraine will have to cede to Russia).
Who here actually thinks here that Russia will stop here? My opinion is that they won’t and there will be no Ukraine left, or a Ukraine that can exist but with some concession (not being a part of NATO). My ideal situation would be that US, NATO and Russia would kiss and make up but that appears generations away.

 

[Jello_B]

No one wants World War 3.

What we have is an aggressor trying to take land and genocide a people. If we let them do this, where do they stop? There has been plenty of historical examples of an aggressor taking land, stopping, then going for more. The old phrase "give them an inch and they'll take a mile". Most recent relevant example I can think of is back in 2014 when Russia took Crimea from Ukraine. I bet a lot of people thought Russia would stop there and Ukraine gave them what Russia wanted. And here we are now.

How many countries would people be willing for Russia to take before you went "Hey, this is bad. We need to do something about it"? Ukraine falls then I bet Moldova would be targeted within a decade. How long after that would Romania be safe? Do we start doing something when Germany gets shelled? Spain?

We should be doing everything we can to protect Ukraine and their people from being wiped out. Will this cause Russia to escalate? *, I hope not but they will eventually if we don't stop them here and now.

Peace is somethings another word for surrender.

This is incongruent with the collective west belief.
1) Russian forces are running out of arms, are incapable (a paper tiger) and their economy is depressed
2) but we need to worry they will become imperialist and take over other parts of Europe
Which is it?
The truth is probably Russia will grind out Ukraine with what they have, they’ll keep having proxy or direct fights with anything near their borders they perceive to be a threat to their values. Russia aren’t taking over Europe.